No New Talks Between Yankees, Robinson Cano
Robinson Cano's new agents have yet to begin negotiations with the Yankees about a contract extension, Cano told ESPN New York's Andrew Marchand. Cano recently made headlines when he switched his representation from Scott Boras to CAA and Jay-Z's Roc Nation Sports, with CAA's Brodie Van Wagenen handling the negotiations over Cano's next contract.
As a matter of club policy, the Yankees usually wait until after the season to discuss contract extensions, even with such franchise icons as Derek Jeter and Mariano Rivera in recent years. Cano is a different case, however, given that he is entering free agency in the prime of his career. Even though the Yankees may or may not be sticking to their plan of keeping their 2014 payroll under the $189MM mark, re-signing Cano has always been a top priority for the team. GM Brian Cashman confirmed that the club made "a significant offer" to Cano in February when he still represented by Boras.
Cano is far and away the top pending free agent available on the market, as per Tim Dierkes' 2014 free agent power rankings. Though he turns 31 in October, Cano will command a contract in the range of $200MM this winter. At that kind of money, Cano's market will be limited to only the biggest-spending clubs and naturally the Dodgers have already been mentioned as likely suitors for his services.
Yankees Likely To Exceed 2014 Luxury Tax Threshold
The Yankees appear increasingly likely to set the team's payroll above the $189MM luxury tax threshold for next season, writes Yahoo Sports' Jeff Passan. Passan quotes an unspecified source: "They're going to be over [$189MM]. They know it. Everyone knows it. You can't run a $3 billion team with the intentions of saving a few million dollars." Of course, the Yankees never thought they would be saving only a few million dollars when they began speaking publicly about their intentions. Instead, the club was reportedly looking to save something in the neighborhood of $50MM.
Passan explains why that anticipated saving may no longer be available. First, the team no longer expects to recover a substantial amount of the money that it contributes to the MLB revenue sharing system. Rule changes had promised big money to the Yanks if they got under the threshold.
The rules used to allow certain big-market clubs with smaller revenues — such as the Nationals, Braves, and Blue Jays — to receive shared funds. Beginning in 2014, however, such clubs will begin sending that money back to the large-market, high-revenue clubs (like the Yankees) from whence it came. The contributing clubs get a rebate in proportion to their contributions, but only if they fall under the luxury tax threshhold. But with clubs like those mentioned shifting toward higher payrolls, the imbalance is disappearing and with it the potential funds to be reclaimed. A Passan source says that "the pool is going to be much less than everyone anticipated."
The direct luxury tax savings, in turn, may not be enough on their own to make the limbo act worthwhile. Passan explains that, were the Yankees to dip under the threshold for one season (presumably 2014), the club's luxury tax savings over the next two years could range from around $15.6MM (on a hypothetical $205MM payroll for 2015-16) to over $30MM (on a hypothetical $220MM payroll in those years). In other words, the savings increase as the anticipated future salary goes up.
It could be difficult to engineer a one-year salary valley, followed by an immediate spike, in a manner that makes the maneuvering worthwhile while efficiently creating good results on the field. Looking ahead to 2014, the Yankees already have a large amount of money committed to a small number of players, many of whom face age, injury, and/or other issues that could limit their value. The team will also be looking to re-sign superstar Robinson Cano. Moreover, a purge-and-binge free agency strategy may not allow the Yanks to fill all their needs from an increasingly shallow free agent market, potentially leading to overspending on sub-optimal players. The future free agent classes will not be as flush with talent as expected by the time we actually reach them, with several of the biggest names already locked up.
Of course, there is also an enormously valuable brand to protect and grow. Add it all up, and the risks may well not justify the relatively unimpressive savings that the Yanks could reap from getting under the salary ceiling. In early March, over 60% of MLBTR readers who voted said the Yankees would not get under the threshold for 2014. That community projection is looking good right now. What, then, would the impact be on the broader market for MLB talent?
To start, an uncapped Yankee budget would leave no obvious barriers to the retention of Cano. Perhaps more importantly, the Yanks would seem to be positioned to take on major additional salary obligations even after putting a Cano extension in the books. While no unquestionable impact players appear atop the class of prospective free agents (excepting, of course, Cano), Yankee money would nevertheless have a major impact on market demand. Even last year, when the Yankees seemed quiet in anticipation of the 2014 austerity plan, the club had the seventh-highest total offseason spend according to MLBTR's Offseason In Review tabulations. (The Yanks issued over $95MM in new money commitments, all in short-term deals. That figure includes free agent signings and exercised options, but not extensions.)
Depending on how things shake out, the team could have needs all over the diamond, including catcher, corner outfield, the left side of the infield, and the rotation. In fact, with the exception of Chase Utley — assuming that he will look to sign as a second baseman — the Yankees' needs could conceivably match with any of the players listed by MLBTR's Tim Dierkes in his latest 2014 Free Agent Power Rankings.
Mets, Yankees Deny Making Offer To Valverde
5:58pm: A National League source told Buster Olney of ESPN.com (on Twitter) that the Mets didn't make an offer to Valverde either.
4:31pm: WFAN's Sweeny Murti tweets that Yankees GM Brian Cashman denied the claims made by Valverde. Cashman said that not only did the Yankees not make an offer, they didn't even have discussions with Valverde and Boras.
3:55pm: Jose Valverde is back in a familiar role as the Tigers' closer, but he could've been in a very different situation had wanted to this offseason. The 35-year-old told Jon Paul Morosi of FOX Sports today that the Yankees and Mets both offered him a Major League contract this offseason (Twitter link).
Neither the Mets or Yankees wound up adding much in the way of bullpen help on Major League deals. The Mets reportedly had interest in Brian Wilson at various points throughout the winter. Ultimately, they elected to sign Brandon Lyon and add Scott Atchison and LaTroy Hawkins on minor league commitments. The Yankees, meanwhile, re-signed Mariano Rivera and swung a deal with the Mariners to land right-hander Shawn Kelley.
Valverde signed a minor league contract with the Tigers in early April which was re-worked into a Major League deal yesterday. The Scott Boras client clearly would not have been a candidate to close for the Yankees with Rivera in the fold, though it seems possible that he could've gotten some save opportunities for the Mets.
AL East Notes: Orioles, Burnett, Arrieta, Ichiro
The Orioles entered the eighth inning of yesterday's game with a lead and held on to pick up the victory. That might not seem all that noteworthy on the surface, but as MLB.com's Matthew Leach writes, yesterday marked the 100th straight win in games where the Orioles have held a lead through seven innings. Leach examines all the aspects of the Orioles' roster that have led to their improbably success with late inning leads. Here's more on the AL East…
- Alex Burnett spoke candidly with Shi Davidi of Sportsnet.ca regarding the waiver process that led him to end up in the Orioles' organization, and he didn't sound happy about his brief stint with the Blue Jays. Burnett said he was "shocked" to be designated for assignment by Toronto and wondered what the point of his claim was. He also adds that he's had to have his car shipped across the country twice, break two leases and send his pregnant wife home because the constant moving would have been too difficult. Burnett said he's thankful that his process has been relatively quick, and he feels bad for Casper Wells, who spent the better part of three weeks in waiver limbo. Burnett hopes that the process will be brought up at the next Players Association meeting. MLBTR's Charlie Wilmoth recently looked at the waiver process in depth.
- Davidi notes that the silver lining for these players is that they do collect a Major League salary and Major League service time while they are on waivers.
- ESPN's Jerry Crasnick spoke with an AL scout regarding Orioles' right-hander Jake Arrieta and was told, "I know 29 teams that would be takers" (Twitter link). Arrieta's raw stuff draws consistent praise despite poor results. He was optioned to Triple-A yesterday.
- Danny Knobler of CBS Sports also talked to scouts regarding Arrieta, who said that he has "electric stuff." Knobler writes that Arrieta is simply too talented for the Orioles to give up on.
- Another scout told Andy Martino of the New York Daily News that the Yankees should be very concerned about Ichiro Suzuki: "His timing is all off. He looks terrible." Ichiro signed a two-year, $13MM contract with the Yankees this offseason.
AL East Notes: Bundy, Yankees
Top Orioles prospect Dylan Bundy will see Dr. James Andrews after throwing on Monday and "not feeling quite right," MLB.com's Brittany Ghiroli reports. Bundy has not pitched since March. He was the fourth overall pick in the 2011 draft and is arguably the highest-upside player in that draft, but it's hard not to be concerned about a young pitcher paying a visit to Dr. Andrews, even though a recent MRI on his right elbow came back clear. Over the weekend, we asked you which of the first ten picks in the 2011 draft would have the best career, and 31% of you said it would be Bundy. Here are more notes from the AL East.
- Yankees GM Brian Cashman wasn't expecting his team's decision to go with Francisco Cervelli and Chris Stewart at catcher to go as well as it has so far this season, Andy Martino of New York Daily News reports. "I can’t tell you that we made any decisions based on knowing that we were tapping into that, and we would be fine," says Cashman. "That would be inaccurate. … Sometimes it’s better to be lucky than good." The Yankees let Russell Martin leave for Pittsburgh in the offseason. Cervelli has hit .283/.389/.478 as his replacement, and Stewart has hit .353/.353/.529. Of course, both stat lines come in very small samples, which is one reason Cashman is wise to abstain from bragging. Cashman is also modest about his team's acquisition of Vernon Wells, which has also worked out well in the early going.
- The flip side is that the Yankees ignored glaring needs in their "dormant" offseason, Mike Axisa of River Ave Blues writes. The Yankees should have acquired a righty-hitting outfielder and a utility infielder over the winter, Axisa says. Ben Francisco currently occupies the righty-bench-outfielder role, and he hasn't hit. In the infield, Eduardo Nunez and Jayson Nix have struggled so far.
East Links: Grilli, Cano, Webster, Rendon
A pair of top prospects made their big league debuts yesterday, as Allen Webster started the second game of a double-header for the Red Sox and Anthony Rendon made his debut at third base for the Nationals with Ryan Zimmerman on the DL. Here's more on each, as well as some other news from baseball's Eastern divisions…
- Matt Gelb of the Philadelphia Inquirer chronicles Jason Grilli's ascension from the Phillies' Triple-A affiliate to Pirates closer. In 2011, the Phils called up six relievers instead of Grilli, despite his dominant numbers. Grilli had a clause in his contract stating that if another MLB team wanted him on their 25-man roster, the Phillies had to either call him up or release him. Pittsburgh scouts took notice of Grilli, called the Phillies, and Philadelphia elected to release him so he could sign with the Buccos.
- Sonia Cruz, the spokeswoman for Robinson Cano's foundation, appeared in the latest round of Biogenesis documents, according to TJ Quinn and Mike Fish of ESPN. Cruz's name was only connected to a pair of $300 payments, which she said were for her own weight loss interests. Mark Feinsand of the New York Daily News reports that MLB sources told him there was no link between Cano and Biogenesis. When he heard about the latest report, a surprised Cano told reporters, including Feinsand, "It's got nothing to do with me."
- Brian MacPherson of the Providence Journal examines the number of starting pitchers needed by the Red Sox in each season over the past decade and notes that the evidence suggests Webster will be back this season. MacPherson also adds that preliminary research indicates this is the earliest the Red Sox have ever turned to seven different starting pitchers in any season.
- The timing of Rendon's call-up suggests that the Nationals may be more willing to let him remain with the club all season than they've let on, writes Adam Kilgore of the Washington Post. Kilgore points out that Rendon has spent 20 days in the minor leagues, meaning his free agency has been delayed by a full year now.
- Jake Arrieta is at a crossroads with the Orioles, in the mind of the Baltimore Sun's Dan Connolly. At 27 years of age, Arrieta has passed the "prospect" stage but has yet to find the consistency to convert his above-average repertoire of pitches into consistent success. Connolly notes that it's not wise to trade someone with Arrieta's talent while his value is so low, but moving him to the bullpen hardly maximizes his value.
- Jon Heyman of CBS Sports reports that the Jay-Z's cerficiation process won't be complete anytime soon (Twitter link). As expected, CAA's Brodie Van Wagenen will handle Robinson Cano's extension talks.
Quick Hits: Dodgers, Garza, Price, Yankees
"You can never have too much pitching" isn't just a cliche, and the 2013 Dodgers are proof of that. The Dodgers announced today that Chad Billingsley is headed to the disabled list because of right elbow pain and the right-hander may even require Tommy John surgery down the road. The Dodgers theoretically had a pair of extra starters to dangle to teams a couple of weeks ago, but injuries to Billingsley, Chris Capuano, and Zack Greinke have put that idea on hold. Here's more from around baseball..
- Baseball officials told Buster Olney of ESPN.com (Insider sub. req'd) that if Matt Garza winds up getting tied to draft pick compensation like Kyle Lohse, the advice they would have for him would be to push his negotiations early in the offseason. Because he's not a Greinke-type of talent, Garza will want to sign before teams have already settled in around spring training.
- Olney recently suggested that the Cubs, Red Sox, Cardinals, and Rangers could be frontrunners if the Rays move David Price, but Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times doesn't see Tampa Bay doing business with Boston unless it's at a significant premium.
- Lyle Overbay, Vernon Wells, and other new Yankees are rejuvenating their careers in New York, writes John Harper of the New York Daily News.
Rosenthal On Wells, Lee, Konerko, Rodriguez
In his latest edition of Full Count, Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports (video link) gives the Yankees credit for realizing that Vernon Wells still had a lot left. The big stumbling block in trade talks between the Yankees and Angels was how much of the $42MM deal the Bombers would pay for. Discussions stalled until the spring when the Yankees lost Mark Teixeira to injury and their interest was renewed. Here's more from Rosenthal..
- If the Phillies fall out of contention, Cliff Lee could become a trade target once again. They declined to trade him last August after the Dodgers claimed him on waivers, but it would make sense to make a deal if they're not winning. However, Lee is earning $25MM per season through 2015 and has a $27.5MM vesting option for 2016. On top of that, he can only be traded to nine teams without his permission. The Phillies may have trouble making a deal for Lee because of those issues, but a shortage of quality starting pitching could lead to a swap with a contending team. Rosenthal lists the Red Sox, Dodgers, and Cardinals as teams that could be interested, depending on their needs.
- Don't expect a Mariano Rivera-style victory lap for Paul Konerko as he won't make up his mind about his future until after the season. The decision will likely hinge on multiple factors, including how he plays, whether the White Sox want him back, and whether another club would be a potential fit. The D'Backs made a run at Konerko the last time he was on the open market, but that first base job now belongs to Paul Goldschmidt.
- Francisco Rodriguez could look elsewhere if he doesn't make the Brewers' roster in 30 days, but Milwaukee is probably his best option. He'll earn the prorated portion of a $2.25MM salary if he makes the squad, plus incentives.
Quick Hits: Dodgers, Crawford, Yankees, Wells
Here's today's look around the majors as the Red Sox take the field in Boston and look to extend their winning streak to seven games..
- The Dodgers didn't know exactly what they were getting when they acquired Carl Crawford in last year's blockbuster deal, but the early returns are promising now that he is back in action. In fact, one scout told Buster Olney of ESPN.com (on Twitter) that he is greatly impressed with what he's seen in 2013 and his stopwatch times to first are the fastest they've been since his early years with the Rays.
- On the other coast, Vernon Wells is looking like his old self with the Yankees, writes MLB.com's Chris Toman. To manager Joe Girardi, the veteran looks similar to his time in Toronto where he was a three-time All-Star.
- In an interview with ESPN.com (video link), former big league outfielder Moises Alou said that he enjoys his current job as GM for a team in the Dominican Republic and hasn't been swayed by MLB job offers that has come his way.
AL East Notes: David Ortiz, Ramon Ortiz, Hughes
David Ortiz says the timing of his likely return to the Red Sox's lineup Friday is unrelated to the structure of his contract, Alex Speier of WEEI.com reports. Under his current two-year, $26MM contract, Ortiz is guaranteed $11MM in 2014, but that number would rise to $13MM if he spends 21 to 40 days on the disabled list due to his Achilles injury in 2013. It would further increase to $15MM if he spends 20 or fewer days. Thursday was Ortiz's 19th day on the DL this season. If he is not activated before Saturday, he will lose $2MM in 2014. "I just found out about [the contract clause] a couple of days ago," says Ortiz. "If I would be limping or hurting still, it is what it is. But I’m going back now because I feel ready and I want to be playing for my ball club." Here's more from the AL East.
- At age 40, Ramon Ortiz is back in the big leagues, Steph Rogers and Evan Peaslee of MLB.com note. Ortiz's appearance with the Blue Jays on Wednesday was his first Major League outing since September 2011, when he was with the Cubs. "I know guys who are coaches and managers in the big leagues [or] the Minor Leagues. When they see me, they say 'Ramon, you're still playing?'" Ortiz says. Ortiz made 27 starts for the Yankees' Triple-A affiliate in 2012, then signed a minor-league deal with the Jays in December.
- Yankees pitcher Phil Hughes could get $70MM as a free agent next winter, the New York Daily News' Mark Feinsand argues (on Twitter). Feinsand compares Hughes to Anibal Sanchez, who got five years and $80MM from the Tigers in December. Sanchez, though, had xFIPs of 3.25 and 3.60 in his last two seasons before free agency; Hughes' xFIPs in the last two years were 4.90 and 4.35. Peripheral numbers might not matter much in an arbitration hearing, but they matter in free agency. Feinsand is correct to note that the two players have pitched in very different park and league contexts, but the numbers still strongly suggest that Sanchez is the far better pitcher. Of course, much will depend on the way Hughes pitches in 2013. Hughes does not crack Tim Dierkes' 2014 Free Agent Power Rankings.