Abraham On Giambi’s Contract
Good read over at the LoHud Yankees Blog: Journal News beat writer Peter Abraham discusses why voiding Jason Giambi‘s contract is highly unlikely. Check it out.
The only point on which I might disagree is the first – that the Yankees could not find a DH to replace Giambi. I’ll grant that they won’t dig up a .970 OPS guy, but we don’t know if the 36 year-old Giambi can still play at that level. Jack Cust has shown us that high OBP minor league lifers who can’t play defense are freely available.
More Rosenthal
Ken Rosenthal’s been a busy man today. He’s got another column up for FOXSports.com; go read it. The high-level version:
- Rosenthal sees the Yankees declining Bobby Abreu‘s 2008 option and turning to Melky Cabrera or a big name free agent for right field. I agree; you can check out my other assessments of 2008 club options here. Might be time to switch my predictions on Juan Uribe, Jose Guillen, and Paul Byrd. I can now see Uribe declined and the other two exercised. Byrd has come alive, and Guillen’s strong May has sparked the chance of the Ms taking their $9MM option for ’08.
- Torii Hunter‘s having a well-timed career year, but the Twins can’t trade him unless they’re out of contention. Tough situation. The Twins are 7.5 games back in the Central, 7 out of the wild card. If it’s double digits in July the decision gets easier.
- It wouldn’t be easy for the Cardinals to trade Scott Rolen right now, based on the factors outlined here.
- Erick Aybar remains an excellent trading chip for the Angels. His .600 OPS doesn’t help his value, but it’s pretty much what PECOTA expected. There’s a small chance Aybar becomes Barry Larkin, but to me he looks like the next Cesar Izturis.
Cubs Trade Speculation
What are those crazy Cubs up to now? They’ve got some surprising plans regarding their pitching staff. Here’s the rundown:
- Ryan Dempster may switch back to starting, after he mentors the future closer. Dempster made six starts for the Cubs to begin 2005, four of which were quality efforts. Apparently the Cubs think his repertoire is better suited as a starter. He’s due $10.5MM for 2007-08, and if he can emerge as a quality #4 type starter the contract won’t look so bad. Dempster’s best season came in 2000 with the Marlins, when he made the All-Star team and won 14 games. His success will depend on his control. It doesn’t appear that the Cubs are shopping him, though Paul Sullivan speculated that the Yankees could be interested.
- Angel Guzman will be groomed as the next Cubs closer. This is an interesting and unexpected idea. He’s looked sharp in relief this year, but it’s only been seven innings. He does have good stuff and decent control. Phil Rogers offers a little Chad Cordero speculation. It seems the Cubs will try internal options first, with the knowledge that most great closers were once starters.
- Rogers seems to think the Cubs should let the inconsistent Carlos Zambrano walk after this season, and focus that money towards a big name hitter. He names Andruw Jones, Torii Hunter, and Kosuke Fukudome as options. I like the Fukudome idea. According to Mike Plugh, Fukudome is best served as a right fielder. A Cubs outfield of Soriano, Pie, and Fukudome could be a nice core. Not sure where that would leave Matt Murton, however.
- Rogers also reminds us that the Cubs nearly signed Japanese ace starter Hiroki Kuroda last winter, and could try again after the season. Kuroda has great command, and won’t require a posting fee. Kuroda chose to re-sign with the Hiroshima Carps last winter. He’ll turn 33 before the 2008 season.
Could Yanks Void Giambi’s Contract?
When I first heard this, I figured it was just idle talk. It seemed highly unlikely to me that Jason Giambi‘s recent comments – mainly "I was wrong for doing that stuff" – could get his contract voided. But with MLB now investigating, it’s starting to become a possibility.
Brian Cashman is still interested in getting out from under the contract. The Yanks tried to void the deal before, when Giambi was coming off an uncharacteristic .721 OPS. Even with an excellent performance over the last two seasons, no one wants to pay Giambi $47MM for 2007-08 (’09 buyout included).
The Yankees did manage to void Aaron Boone‘s contract because he got hurt playing basketball, so you never know. The pickle will be that Giambi’s contract doesn’t have language specifically referring to steroid use.
Truly odd would be to see the Yankees void Giambi’s contract, only to turn around and trade for Todd Helton. I suppose if reduced to $60MM over five years, Helton’s contract looks slightly better than Giambi’s.
Renck’s Latest
Troy E. Renck of the Denver Post has a host of trade rumors in his recent column. Let’s break it down:
- Time to restart those Todd Helton rumors, as the first baseman is hitting a robust .360/.473/.533. Renck thinks a trade to Detroit is unlikely, but that the Yankees, Red Sox, or Braves could make a play for him this summer. The Yanks came up recently via Mark Healey. Maybe with Helton’s strong start, the Rockies can get their part of Helton’s $90MM contract down to $30MM.
- Renck likes the Rockies, Braves, and Red Sox as suitors for Rocco Baldelli. Rocco hopes to return in early June from a strained left hamstring. I wouldn’t expect a deal until at least late June.
- The Astros apparently are not making Chris Burke available despite his demotion. That’s a shame, because the Rockies like him. The Rox are hoping to see Kaz Matsui return from a back strain this week, so we’ll see how that goes first.
- The Angels still have interest in Garrett Atkins but talks haven’t been serious. Seems odd that Dan O’Dowd would sell low on Atkins at this point, but I guess it depends on the return and the Rockies’ projections for him.
Yankees Considering Helton?
For all the talk of how the Yankees have changed, the team went back to its old brute force spending approach to add the one available free agent difference-maker in Roger Clemens. Ten games behind the Red Sox and in third place, it seems they may be considering another expensive acquisition. According to Mark Healey of Gotham Baseball, the Yanks are considering acquiring Todd Helton to play first base. The Rockies might have to accept a contract in return, perhaps Kyle Farnsworth‘s. I would except a Helton deal to resemble the Bobby Abreu trade, where the Yankees mostly provide salary relief rather than players.
The Yankees’ offense has been kind of average in May. However, the .262/.347/.460 line they’ve gotten from Josh Phelps and Doug Mientkiewicz is about league average for the position. It’s far from a major need.
Aside from the Angels, there aren’t many teams that could take on Helton’s contract or even compete for his services. In contrast, one Rockie likely to be coveted by is closer Brian Fuentes. Healey says he’s on the Yanks’ radar as well. Fuentes is a 31 year-old lefty with 75 career saves. He’ll be a free agent after the 2008 season.
Stark’s Latest
Jayson Stark posted a new Rumblings and Grumblings column over at ESPN; it’s definitely worth a read. A summary of his trade rumors:
- GMs calling the Marlins have noticed that the team seems a little more open to trading Dontrelle Willis this year. Miguel Cabrera doesn’t appear to be under discussion. If the Marlins are out of the race in mid-July and a team ponies up with three legimate young regulars, they might be able to pry him away. The D’Backs or Dodgers could probably pull this off without damaging their current group too much.
- Stark says the D-Rays are considering promoting both Evan Longoria and Reid Brignac before the trading deadline, filling out the left side of their infield. Someone would have to be pushed out; maybe B.J. Upton to center, Akinori Iwamura to second, and Rocco Baldelli to another team. Stark reminds us of past interest by the Red Sox. And don’t forget all the interest from Atlanta in December.
- The Rich Harden trade rumors may just reflect frustration on Billy Beane’s part, and not actual availability.
- Stark also debates whether the Rangers would still be on the hook for $21MM if Alex Rodriguez opts out and then the Yankees re-sign him. Right now it’s an open question.
Yanks Interested In Jose Molina
The Yankees, not thrilled with Wil Nieves as Jorge Posada’s backup, have expressed interest to the Angels in Jose Molina.
Molina turns 32 in June; he’s caught 348 big league games to date. He was a Cubs farmhand until he release in 2000. To part with him, the Angels would have to have full confidence in the tandem of Mike Napoli and Jeff Mathis. Napoli’s hitting like a backup this year, while the 24 year-old Mathis is at .256/.296/.360 in Triple A. So, seems doubtful that Molina is going anywhere.
Free Ron Villone
Sure, Barry Bonds is chasing the all-time home run mark set by Hank Aaron, and yes, the Brewers of all teams have the best record in the National League. Those are all interesting stories, but today, the baseball-world’s attention will be focused on… Ron Villone?!?
It seems as if the 37-year old veteran left-hander has a clause in his contract that calls for the Yankees to grant him free agency if he is not on the big-league roster as of today. Given his handedness and the fact that he has a 1.90 ERA, 10.72 K/9 and a 0.00 HR/9 in 22 2/3 innings of work in AAA Scranton/Wilkes-Barre, he is sure to draw some interest. It is possible that the Yankees could simply release him or, they could wisely try to trade him rather than just letting him walk for nothing in return.
Any number of teams could use Villone’s services, and naturally, the Phillies are expected to be among them. Speaking on condition of anonymity in order to avoid tampering issues, one "Phillies baseball man" said, "Would he make us better? I sure think he would."
The Phillies relief situation has been desperate all season, but of particular importance right now is someone who can pitch with his left arm and actually get people out. Manager Charlie Manuel is committed to the idea that the only way to get a left-handed batter out is to use a left-handed pitcher, however, Matt Smith and Fabio Castro have both failed miserably.
If you listen closely here in Philly, you can just barely hear the chants in South Philly… "Free Ron Villone, Free Ron Villone!"
Perhaps the Yankees would take C.J. Henry and Matt Smith back [written with tongue inserted firmly into cheek].
Tom Goyne is the author of Balls, Sticks, & Stuff, a Phillies-centric site, and maintains the Phloggers’ Pheeds page, a source for the latest commentary from around the "phlogosphere". Recently, he teamed up with his brother to launch Roto Front Office.
The Abreu Option
Bobby Abreu is really struggling this year – he’s hitting just .250/.325/.309 in 136 ABs. Even his occasionally Bondsian walk rate is down around 10%. The Yankees are paying him $15MM this year, and have a $16MM option with a $2MM buyout for 2008.
In my 2008 Club Options post a couple of weeks ago, I voted that the Yankees would decline the option. At that point I was ignorant to the buyout price, however. It’s more like a $14MM decision, and that’s a bit more palatable. If Abreu was on track for a line around .290/.420/.450, I think it’s an easy choice to exercise. Commenters in the earlier post leaned towards the Yanks exercising it but then looking to trade Abreu.
Since we still have 80% of the season to go, it’s much too early to call. But if Abreu plays to his 25th percentile PECOTA – .263/.372/.413 – he’ll join the ’08 free agent class. Does his slow start change your opinion on the option?