Offseason Outlook

Offseason Outlook: Minnesota Twins

By Tim Dierkes | November 2, 2009 at 3:35pm CDT

Next up in our Offseason Outlook series, the Twins. Their likely commitments for 2010:

C – Joe Mauer – $12.5MM
C – Jose Morales – $400K
1B – Justin Morneau – $14MM
2B – Alexi Casilla – $428K
SS – Nick Punto – $4MM
3B – Brendan Harris – $466K+
IF – Matt Tolbert – $405K
IF – Brian Buscher – $413K
LF – Delmon Young – $1.152MM+
CF – Denard Span – $435K
RF – Michael Cuddyer – $8.5MM
OF – Carlos Gomez – $438K+
DH – Jason Kubel – $4.1MM

SP – Scott Baker – $3MM
SP – Nick Blackburn – $440K
SP – Kevin Slowey – $440K
SP – Glen Perkins – $430K
SP – Francisco Liriano – $430K+

Other candidates: Brian Duensing, Anthony Swarzak

RP – Joe Nathan – $11.25MM
RP – Jon Rauch – $2.9MM
RP – Jesse Crain – $1.7MM+
RP – Matt Guerrier – $1.475MM+
RP – Pat Neshek – $440K+
RP – Brian Duensing – $400K
RP – Jose Mijares – $400K

Other candidates: Bobby Keppel, Jeff Manship

Non-tender candidates: Boof Bonser, Delmon Young

The Twins have about $70.5MM committed before arbitration raises to Harris, Young, Gomez, Liriano, Crain, Guerrier, and Neshek. (Perkins is considering a grievance over missing Super Two status). They'll be in the high $70MMs range if all those players are tendered contracts. The Twins entered the '09 season at $65.3MM, according to Cot's Baseball Contracts. Fortunately, there's a rumor payroll could jump to the $90-100MM range with the new stadium opening in 2010.

Smith's areas of focus should be second base, shortstop, and third base. Second base options are plentiful on the free agent market. Among shortstops Smith would be well-served to target Milwaukee's J.J. Hardy, but Hardy should have multiple suitors. Adrian Beltre and Troy Glaus could be interesting third base considerations.

The Twins are set in the outfield, though there's a case to be made for non-tendering Young and using that money for a left field/DH type.

The rotation has question marks behind Baker and Blackburn. Slowey is coming back from wrist surgery, Perkins from a shoulder injury, and Liriano from post-Tommy John elbow issues. Duensing had a 2.73 ERA in nine starts, though his peripheral stats were less inspiring. The Twins will have to find the Carl Pavano of 2010, an innings eater who can be had for a few million bucks.

Trading Nathan should be considered; he's owed $24.5MM over the next two seasons. He might bring a few decent pieces in return, and the savings could be used to add a veteran starter and/or late-inning reliever. On the other hand, the market will be flooded with closers this winter and the Twins could be starved for suitors.

Additionally, the Twins will attempt to sign Mauer long-term. Even with a hometown discount this might require a $100MM commitment.

Last winter, Smith used his budget to re-sign Punto and add Joe Crede and Luis Ayala. He supplemented those moves with the midseason additions of Orlando Cabrera, Ron Mahay, Pavano, and Rauch. The shuffling should continue this winter, as the Twins continue to seek infield solutions. With the pitching depth taking a hit, Smith will need every penny of that increased payroll.

Offseason Outlook: Atlanta Braves

By Tim Dierkes | October 30, 2009 at 11:35am CDT

Next up in our Offseason Outlook series, the Braves. Their likely commitments for 2010:

C – Brian McCann – $5.5MM
C – Dave Ross – $1.6MM
1B –
2B – Martin Prado – $415K
SS – Yunel Escobar – $425K
3B – Chipper Jones – $13MM
IF – Kelly Johnson – $2.825MM+
IF – Diory Hernandez – $400K
IF/OF – Omar Infante – $2.225MM
LF – Matt Diaz – $1.2375MM+
CF – Nate McLouth – $4.5MM
RF – Ryan Church – $2.8MM+
OF – Jordan Schafer – $400K

SP – Javier Vazquez – $11.5MM
SP – Jair Jurrjens – $450K
SP – Tommy Hanson – $400K
SP – Tim Hudson – $9MM (est.)
SP – Derek Lowe – $15MM

RP – Peter Moylan – $410K+
RP – Kenshin Kawakami – $6.667MM
RP – Kris Medlen – $400K
RP – Eric O'Flaherty – $400K
RP – Boone Logan – $428K+
RP – Manny Acosta – $413K
RP – James Parr – $400K

The Braves have about $81MM committed before arbitration raises to Johnson, Diaz, Church, Moylan, and Logan. Johnson and Logan are potential trade/non-tender candidates. Regardless, the Braves should fall under $90MM (and that includes an estimated $9MM for Hudson). According to Cot's Baseball Contracts, the Braves began 2009 with a $96.7MM payroll. Ultimately I can see Braves GM Frank Wren having close to $15MM to spend without raising payroll.

First base and left field are two positions Wren must address this winter. The Braves intend to add a right-handed power bat; we ran through options here. At the time, I didn't realize Jason Bay and Matt Holliday might be considerations. The plan for first base might be to re-sign Adam LaRoche, though there are respectable free agent alternatives.

Wren will probably sign a reliever, as closers Rafael Soriano and Mike Gonzalez are up for free agency. Both project as Type A free agents; will the Braves offer arbitration? If either player accepts, the Braves can offer any salary they want and have that figure pitted against the submission from the player's agent. Still, Soriano earning $6.1MM this year against $3.45MM for Gonzalez might lead to an arbitration offer only for the latter. The argument against Moylan closing is that lefties handle him well. Pairing him with O'Flaherty in the ninth has potential if the Braves want to save money in the bullpen. And don't forget that Medlen had 53 strikeouts in 49.3 relief innings this year.

So the Braves have needs at first base, left field, and possibly the bullpen. Considering the inflated price of free agent power hitters, how can Wren fill all these holes on a $12-15MM budget? The Braves' pitching surplus could be the answer. Kawakami's contract isn't unreasonable. Lowe's is, given his declining peripherals. Lowe is still useful, though, so the Braves could still trade him and shed 2010 payroll even if they can't find a taker for all $15MM.

My suggestion: retain the starting pitching depth. In all likelihood Kawakami will still be needed for 20+ starts next year. The Braves could instead bump payroll to $100MM, dump Johnson and Logan, go cheap on the bullpen, perhaps backload Hudson's deal, and spend $9-10MM each for the first base and left field spots. Perhaps Johnson could even be used to acquire a decent late-inning reliever.

Offseason Outlook: Detroit Tigers

By Tim Dierkes | October 27, 2009 at 11:48am CDT

Next up in our Offseason Outlook series, the Tigers. Their likely commitments for 2010:

C – Gerald Laird – $2.8MM+
C – Alex Avila – $400K
1B – Miguel Cabrera – $20MM
2B – Scott Sizemore – $400K
SS – Ramon Santiago – $825K+
3B – Brandon Inge – $6.6MM
IF – Brent Dlugach – $400K
LF – Carlos Guillen – $13MM
CF – Curtis Granderson – $5.5MM
RF – Magglio Ordonez – $18MM
OF – Ryan Raburn – $410K
OF – Clete Thomas – $403K
DH – Marcus Thames – $2.275MM+

SP – Justin Verlander – $3.675MM+
SP – Edwin Jackson – $2.2MM+
SP – Rick Porcello – $1.025MM
SP – Nate Robertson – $10MM
SP – Jeremy Bonderman – $12.5MM

Other candidates: Dontrelle Willis – $12MM, Armando Galarraga – $435K

RP – Joel Zumaya – $735K+
RP – Ryan Perry – $400K
RP – Bobby Seay – $1.3MM+
RP – Zach Miner – $438K+
RP – Armando Galarraga – $435K
RP – Fu-Te Ni – $400K
RP – Freddy Dolsi – $407K

Non-tender candidates: Marcus Thames, Matt Treanor

The Tigers have about $116.5MM committed before arbitration raises to Laird, Santiago, Thames, Verlander, Jackson, Zumaya, Seay, Miner, and Treanor. Thames and Treanor could be non-tendered, but the raises should easily exceed $10MM. The Tigers could be approaching $130MM committed after entering 2009 at $115MM (according to Cot's Baseball Contracts).

Given the payroll limitations and his recent history, GM Dave Dombrowski does not figure to be heavily involved with free agents. Last year he went the trade route to acquire Jackson, Laird, and Josh Anderson and signed free agents Adam Everett, Brandon Lyon, Treanor, and Ni for a total of $6.5MM.

With 2009 starters Placido Polanco and Everett eligible for free agency, the Tigers' middle infield is up in the air. Sizemore is still the favorite to take over at second base despite suffering a broken ankle in the Arizona Fall League. Sizemore, 25 in January, hit .308/.378/.473 in 330 Triple A plate appearances this year. Assuming manager Jim Leyland still views Santiago as a backup player, perhaps the Tigers will re-sign Everett or add a similar affordable free agent. Internally, Dlugach merits a look.

Raburn profiles as one of the game's better fourth outfielders, so the Tigers are protected if Guillen is injured or ineffective. Despite the current plan to use Guillen as the everyday left fielder, it may make sense to non-tender Thames and let Guillen DH. The Tigers' middling offense of 2009 will need to improve mainly from within, with Granderson and Guillen capable of better seasons.

The excellent front three are set in the rotation, and the final two spots may be snagged by pricey veterans in their contract years: Robertson, Bonderman, and Willis. Bonderman, just 26, seems healthy and is being penciled in by Leyland. The Tigers have been linked to free agent Aroldis Chapman, an investment that could conceivably be part of the scouting budget. Whether Chapman could contribute in 2010 is unknown.

The Tigers face two possible late-inning losses in the bullpen in Fernando Rodney and Lyon. If Rodney feels that his 37 saves should lead to a $6MM+ salary, he should be allowed to leave. Likewise, Lyon may want a raise after posting a 2.86 ERA in 78.6 innings. Zumaya and Perry could seize the opportunity, if they keep the walks down.

The Tigers continue to be hamstrung by lousy contract extensions, but they have enough talent to compete in 2010. Bonderman, Willis, Robertson, Inge, Laird, and possibly Ordonez could be off the books after '10, so Dombrowski will gain a lot of flexibility at that point.

Offseason Outlook: Seattle Mariners

By Tim Dierkes | October 26, 2009 at 4:59pm CDT

Next up in our Offseason Outlook series, the Mariners. Their likely commitments for 2010:

C – Rob Johnson – $400K
C – Adam Moore – $400K
1B – Mike Carp – $400K
2B – Jose Lopez – $2.3MM
SS – Josh Wilson – $400K
3B – Matt Tuiasosopo – $400K
IF – Jack Hannahan – $410K
OF/IF – Bill Hall – $1.25MM
LF – Michael Saunders – $400K
CF – Franklin Gutierrez – $455K+
RF – Ichiro Suzuki – $17MM
OF – Ryan Langerhans – $500K+
DH –

SP – Felix Hernandez – $3.8MM+
SP – Ryan Rowland-Smith – $420K
SP – Jason Vargas – $405K
SP – Brandon Morrow – $425K
SP – Ian Snell – $4.25MM

Other candidates: Doug Fister – $400K

RP – David Aardsma – $419K+
RP – Mark Lowe – $418K+
RP – Sean White – $400K
RP – Shawn Kelley – $400K
RP – Chris Jakubauskas – $400K
RP – Garrett Olson – $420K
RP – Carlos Silva – $11.5MM

Other commitments: Yuniesky Betancourt – $1MM, Jack Wilson – $600K buyout

Non-tender candidates: Ryan Langerhans

It is difficult to project the Mariners' payroll. I have them around $49MM before arbitration raises to Gutierrez, Hernandez, Aardsma, Lowe, Langerhans (Langerhans may be non-tendered). I'll estimate these raises to cost an additional $13MM, putting them in the low $60 millions range. While the Ms entered 2009 with a $98.9MM payroll according to Cot's, it might be a stretch to say they have $35MM+ to spend this winter.

The Mariners apparently saved $8MM in 2010 payroll when Kenji Johjima opted out of his contract. With Moore inexperienced and Johnson having all kinds of offseason surgeries, GM Jack Zduriencik figures to be in the market for a veteran catcher. If he doesn't go the free agent route, Zduriencik has shown a recent willingness to take on portions of bad contracts with Hall and Snell. He could call the Diamondbacks about Chris Snyder, who has $11.25MM remaining on his deal over the next two years.

Will Jack Wilson's defense at shortstop be enough for the Mariners to value him at $7.8MM net? Perhaps not, but the two sides could renegotiate at a lower salary. The shortstop trade market offers mainly J.J. Hardy, while Marco Scutaro and Miguel Tejada top the free agents. It would not be surprising to see Zduriencik pursue Hardy, a player he drafted as head of the Brewers' scouting department. Would Dave Cameron's suggested offer of Morrow interest the Brewers?

If the Ms intend to build upon 2009's 85 wins, they'll need to add multiple hitters. They've got the vacancies – first base, third base, DH, and left field are currently open. Re-signing Russell Branyan and/or Adrian Beltre wouldn't be a terrible idea. While Gonzaga alum Jason Bay might be a speculative match, he doesn't seem like Zduriencik's type. I'd expect Seattle's GM to consider value free agents like Carlos Delgado, Nick Johnson, Troy Glaus, Gary Sheffield, Brian Giles, and Jim Thome. The trade market offers Brad Hawpe, Milton Bradley, and perhaps Lyle Overbay and Josh Willingham, not that the Mariners have been linked to them. Geoff Baker of the Seattle Times heard rumblings the Ms could pursue Orlando Hudson, shifting Lopez to another position or club. Zduriencik could go many different ways with these four spots. His shrewd pickups of Branyan, Gutierrez, and Aardsma last winter suggest he'll succeed.

The Mariners led the AL with a 3.87 ERA last year, so it's tempting to leave the pitching staff alone (obviously the defense deserves credit too). However, the rotation could use an upgrade or two behind Hernandez. Washburn and Bedard's 216 innings of 2.71 ball are gone, and Rowland-Smith's peripherals suggest his 3.74 ERA will be hard to repeat. Fortunately, the free agent market offers a host of intriguing bargain buys.

The Mariners could look very different in 2010 – they have potential needs at catcher, first base, shortstop, third base, left field, DH, and in the rotation. On top of that, they've got big arbitration cases (and possible extension attempts) in Hernandez, Gutierrez, and Aardsma. The Mariners weren't mentioned in our Offseason Storylines post a month ago, but their winter should be very active and interesting.

Offseason Outlook: Tampa Bay Rays

By Tim Dierkes | October 22, 2009 at 1:14pm CDT

The Rays are next in our Offseason Outlook series. Their likely commitments for 2010:

C – Gregg Zaun – $2MM (club option, Zaun can void)
C – Shawn Riggans – $414K
1B – Carlos Pena – $10.125MM
2B – Ben Zobrist – $416K
SS – Jason Bartlett – $1.98MM+
3B – Evan Longoria – $950K
IF – Willy Aybar – $1.35MM
IF – Reid Brignac – $400K
LF – Carl Crawford – $10MM (club option)
CF – B.J. Upton – $435K+
RF – Matt Joyce – $410K
OF – Fernando Perez – $403K
DH – Pat Burrell – $9MM

SP – James Shields – $2.5MM
SP – Matt Garza – $433K+
SP – Jeff Niemann – $1MM
SP – David Price – $1MM
SP – Wade Davis – $400K

RP – J.P. Howell – $434K+
RP – Dan Wheeler – $3.5MM
RP – Grant Balfour – $1.4MM+
RP – Lance Cormier – $675K+
RP – Randy Choate – $400K+
RP – Andy Sonnanstine – $430K
RP –

Other commitments: Akinori Iwamura – $250K buyout, Brian Shouse – $200K buyout

Non-tender candidates: Dioner Navarro, Gabe Gross, Jeff Bennett

I have uncertainty with the Rays, given the options and non-tender candidates. Zaun hopes to return in 2010, and if he does the Rays would be less inclined to tender Navarro a contract for $1.68MM+. On the other hand, the Rays have talked about expecting Navarro to rebound, so it's difficult to guess their plan. As for the options, Crawford is an easy decision at $10MM. Cases could be made for retaining Iwamura and Shouse, but I have the Rays paying them $450K to leave rather than $6.25MM to stay. Under this scenario, the Rays have about $50MM committed before arbitration raises to Bartlett, Upton, Garza, Howell, Balfour, Cormier, and Choate. These raises should cost at least $10MM, putting the Rays in the low $60MM range for the second year in a row.

The Rays can probably expect more out of Upton, Burrell, and the catcher spot in 2009. Trading Upton is a possibility, though his value is at a low point. A successful first half could allow the Rays to trade Upton and promote Desmond Jennings for center field. Offensively, the Rays also have to worry about Zobrist and Bartlett coming down somewhat from their excellent numbers.

Right field should be a competition. Gross may be non-tendered, with Kapler leaving as a free agent. Zobrist, Joyce, and Perez could be in the mix, plus any possible imports. One affordable plan could be to use Zobrist in right and Sean Rodriguez at second base. Iwamura has value at $4.25MM, so the Rays could exercise his option and then trade him.

With Davis looking good and Jeremy Hellickson waiting in the wings, the Rays appear to have rotation depth for 2010 despite trading Scott Kazmir, Edwin Jackson, and Jason Hammel in recent years.

The Rays may not add a closer, but they're planning to bring in two or three late-inning arms. Whatever payroll space they have will likely be used here. Interesting free agents are plentiful.

Even without major moves, it's not difficult to envision improvements in the offense and starting rotation next year for the Rays. It's an important year to pounce, with Pena and Crawford entering contract years.

Offseason Outlook: Chicago Cubs

By Tim Dierkes | October 21, 2009 at 11:32am CDT

Next up in our Offseason Outlook series, the Cubs. Their likely 2010 commitments:

C – Geovany Soto – $575K
C – Koyie Hill – $475K+
1B – Derrek Lee – $13MM
2B – Jeff Baker – $415K+
SS – Ryan Theriot – $500K+
3B – Aramis Ramirez – $15.75MM
IF – Aaron Miles – $2.7MM
IF – Andres Blanco – $400K
LF – Alfonso Soriano – $18MM
CF – Kosuke Fukudome – $13MM
RF – Milton Bradley – $9MM
OF – Sam Fuld – $402K
3B/OF – Jake Fox – $402K

SP – Carlos Zambrano – $17.875MM
SP – Ryan Dempster – $12.5MM
SP – Ted Lilly – $12MM
SP – Randy Wells – $402K
SP – Tom Gorzelanny – $433K+

RP – Aaron Heilman – $1.625MM+
RP – Carlos Marmol – $575K+
RP – Sean Marshall – $450K+
RP – Angel Guzman – $422K+
RP – Esmailin Caridad – $400K
RP – Jeff Stevens – $400K
RP – Jeff Samardzija – $2.5MM

Non-tender candidates: Aaron Heilman, Neal Cotts, Mike Fontenot

The Cubs have about $124.2MM committed before arbitration raises to Hill, Baker, Theriot, Heilman, Marmol, Marshall, Guzman, and Gorzelanny. Fontenot, at two years and 139 days of service time, is on the bubble for Super Two status (which could influence his 2010 status with the team). Heilman, Cotts, and Fontenot are candidates to be non-tendered. With at least seven arb cases, there is payroll uncertainty, but I'll put the Cubs around $135MM committed. The Cubs entered 2009 with a payroll right around that mark, according to Cot's Baseball Contracts. The Cubs have new ownership for 2010, and their payroll plans are not yet known.

The Cubs seem dead-set on moving Bradley and finding someone else to play right or center field. A player they loved a year ago, they hate now. Bradley had a slow start and finish, showed little power, and had issues with the fans, media, and manager. Still, he posted a .378 OBP in the off-year and certainly could improve upon that in 2010. My advice: work it out, rather than eating $15MM+ or taking on a different bad contract. Bradley is not the reason the Cubs received over 2,000 plate appearances of subpar hitting from Soriano, Fontenot, Soto, Hill, Hoffpauir, and Miles, nor is he the reason Ramirez was limited to 342 PAs due to a shoulder injury.

With proper conditioning, Soto should bounce back. Baker can't do worse than the other Cubs' second basemen did in '09. Ramirez's shoulder is worrisome, but the Cubs must hope for good health. Soriano finished the season with knee surgery and will presumably be healthy for Spring Training. His contract is so absurd that the team has no flexibility. In all likelihood the Cubs will replace Bradley, but it is the holdovers who need to improve. It would be a shame to see new hitting coach Rudy Jaramillo encourage aggression from the hitters, as it was patience that led to the team's NL-best .354 OBP in 2008.

The rotation looks strong, with the front four locked in. Gorzelanny, Marshall, or Samardzija will probably fill the fifth starter role.

As for the bullpen, the Cubs seem willing to spend good money on John Grabow, perhaps not the best idea (5.0 BB/9). Heilman could be non-tendered. Marmol is the de facto closer, despite 65 walks in 74 innings. Adding a Billy Wagner type makes sense, if payroll allows. Guzman is interesting if he can stay healthy, while Caridad is a sleeper.

The Cubs are a pricey team with room for little more than tinkering. GM Jim Hendry will need to push the right buttons this winter after a 2008-09 offseason filled with miscalculations.

Offseason Outlook: Milwaukee Brewers

By Tim Dierkes | October 20, 2009 at 11:30am CDT

Next up in our Offseason Outlook series, the Brewers. Their likely commitments for 2010:

C –
C – Mike Rivera – $415K+
1B – Prince Fielder – $10.5MM
2B – Rickie Weeks – $2.45MM+
SS – Alcides Escobar – $400K
3B – Casey McGehee – $400K
IF – J.J. Hardy – $4.65MM+
IF – Mat Gamel – $400K
LF – Ryan Braun – $1MM
CF – Jody Gerut – $1.775MM+
RF – Corey Hart – $3.25MM+
OF –
? –

SP – Yovani Gallardo – $414K
SP – Dave Bush – $4MM+
SP – Manny Parra – $426K
SP – Jeff Suppan – $12.5MM
SP – Chris Narveson – $400K

Braden Looper – $6.5MM mutual option, $750K buyout if club declines

RP – Trevor Hoffman – $7.5MM
RP – Seth McClung – $1.6625MM+
RP – Todd Coffey – $800K+
RP – Carlos Villanueva – $447K+
RP – Mitch Stetter – $408K
RP – Mark DiFelice – $403K
RP – Chris Smith – $400K

Other commitments: Bill Hall – $7.15MM, David Riske – $4.5MM, David Weathers – $400K buyout

Non-tender candidates: Jody Gerut, Seth McClung

Let's say the Brewers non-tender Gerut and McClung and decline options on Looper and Weathers. That'd put them at $64MM before arbitration raises to Rivera, Weeks, Hardy, Hart, Bush, Coffey, and Villanueva. Many of these players had off years but we still have to put the team in the $70MM range. $4.5MM would be trimmed if Hardy is traded for a minimum-salary player. The Brewers entered 2009 with a $80.2MM payroll, according to Cot's Baseball Contracts.

GM Doug Melvin could have $10MM+ to spend, with holes to fill at catcher, center field, and in the rotation. Melvin must shoulder some of the blame for the team's limited payroll flexibility – the Brewers have $11.65MM in dead money for Riske and Hall in 2010, plus $12.5MM for Suppan to conclude that dubious signing.

The Brewers could fill the catching spot internally, if they allow Jason Kendall to leave as a free agent. The candidate is 23-year-old prospect Angel Salome. Salome hit .286/.334/.413 in 314 Triple A plate appearances this year. His defense is a question mark, and the Brewers did not give him a September audition. Starting Salome would be a risky move, and Kendall does want to stay.

Weeks is strongly opposed to moving to center field, and incumbent Mike Cameron is a free agent. Cameron is willing to take a pay cut to stay, and the Brewers should strongly consider re-signing him. Gerut may be cut loose after a .230/.279/.376 performance. Internally, Lorenzo Cain (.214/.277/.338 at Double A, missed time with a ligament tear) can't be ruled out. Note that Melvin said in September that "we cannot be distracted" by holes in the field due to the need to focus on pitching.

On to the rotation, Melvin would like to add two starting pitchers. MLB.com's Adam McCalvy wrote on September 10th that "the Brewers will almost certainly pick up" Looper's option. I've written before that I don't think that's a good idea. For that same price the Brewers could sign a free agent with significantly more upside.

The Brewers will not trade Braun or Fielder, but it seems very likely that they'll make Hardy and/or Gamel available for starting pitching. Today at U.S.S. Mariner Dave Cameron proposed a Hardy-Brandon Morrow swap, which seems reasonable. The Twins, Red Sox, and Blue Jays could be other potential fits for the shortstop.

Even before considering a possible long-term deal for Fielder, Melvin has his work cut out for him this winter. He's already re-signed Hoffman and added Rick Peterson as the new pitching coach. Now he must take a limited budget to find two starting pitchers, a catcher, and a center fielder. He has to decide on Looper's option, entertain offers for Hardy, and deal with at least five significant arbitration cases. Should be an action-packed hot stove season for Brewers fans.

Offseason Outlook: Chicago White Sox

By Tim Dierkes | October 19, 2009 at 11:27am CDT

Next up in our Offseason Outlook series, the White Sox. Their likely commitments for 2010:

C – A.J. Pierzynski – $6.25MM
C/DH – Tyler Flowers – $400K
1B – Paul Konerko – $12MM
2B – Chris Getz – $401K
SS – Alexei Ramirez – $1.1MM
3B – Gordon Beckham – $400K
IF/OF – Brent Lillibridge – $403K
IF – Jayson Nix – $400K
LF –
CF – Alex Rios – $9.7MM
RF – Carlos Quentin – $550K+
OF –
DH – Dayan Viciedo – $1.25MM

SP – Mark Buehrle – $14MM
SP – Jake Peavy – $15MM
SP – Gavin Floyd – $2.75MM
SP – John Danks – $520K+
SP – Freddy Garcia – $1MM

RP – Bobby Jenks – $5.6MM+
RP – Scott Linebrink – $5MM
RP – Matt Thornton – $2.25MM
RP – D.J. Carrasco – $440K+
RP – Tony Pena – $430K+
RP – Randy Williams – $410K
RP - Carlos Torres - $400K

Other commitments: Mike MacDougal – $350K, Jermaine Dye – $1MM

Non-tender candidates: Bobby Jenks

The White Sox have about $82MM committed before arbitration raises to Quentin, Danks, Jenks, Carrasco, and Pena. Those raises will be significant, and Jenks will probably be tendered a contract. So we'll put the Sox at about $95MM for 2010. According to Cot's Baseball Contracts, the Opening Day payroll was $96MM (after averaging $111MM the three previous years).

Trading or non-tendering Jenks would free up a good $7MM for GM Ken Williams. MLB.com's Scott Merkin believes it'd take "a strong-to-overwhelming package" for Williams to move his closer. With a surplus of available closers this winter, Jenks will stay put if Merkin is correct about the team's demands.

The rotation appears set, since Garcia's option was exercised recently. The pen is nearly ready, with a minor veteran addition possible (a lefty, if Jenks is traded and Thornton promoted to closer).

The infield is locked in as well, leaving vacancies at left field and DH (assuming Quentin moves to right). Hopefully Williams is considering more than just Chone Figgins and Scott Podsednik for left field. Most likely the free agent market will have corner outfield bargains once again. It'd be even easier to fill the DH spot; re-signing Jim Thome on the cheap is one of many options.

Chicago's rotation looks strong, but the offense is filled with variables. Will Williams make the right choices at left field and DH, two easy-to-fill spots? Will Konerko and Beckham keep hitting, with Rios and Quentin bouncing back? It's easy to imagine both extremes for the offense; that outcome should determine whether the Sox contend in 2010.

Offseason Outlook: Cincinnati Reds

By Cork Gaines | October 14, 2009 at 12:14pm CDT

Next up in our Offseason Outlook series, the Reds. Their likely commitments for 2010:

C – Ryan Hanigan – $400K
C – Corky Miller – $450K+
1B – Joey Votto – $438K
2B – Brandon Phillips – $6.75MM
SS – Paul Janish – $400K
3B – Scott Rolen – $11MM
IF – Drew Sutton – $400K
LF – Jonny Gomes – $600K+
CF – Drew Stubbs – $400K
RF – Jay Bruce – $418K
OF – Willy Taveras – $4MM
OF – Laynce Nix – $600K+
OF – Chris Dickerson – $400K

SP – Aaron Harang – $12.5MM
SP – Bronson Arroyo – $11MM
SP – Johnny Cueto – $418K
SP – Homer Bailey – $401K
SP – Justin Lehr – $400K

Other candidates: Matt Maloney, Micah Owings

RP – Francisco Cordero – $12MM
RP – Arthur Rhodes – $2MM
RP – Nick Masset – $418K+
RP – Mike Lincoln – $2.5MM
RP – Jared Burton – $420K+
RP – Micah Owings – $420K+
RP – Danny Herrera – $400K

Other commitments: Ramon Hernandez – $1MM buyout

Non-tender candidates: Corky Miller, Bill Bray, Laynce Nix

The Reds have about $70MM committed before arbitration raises to Miller, Gomes, Nix, Masset, Burton, and Owings. We'll allocate another $5MM for those raises, puting the team in the $75MM range. The Reds were at $73.6MM heading into the season, according to Cot's Baseball Contracts. Given the lack of payroll space, it's no surprise GM Walt Jocketty told MLB.com's Mark Sheldon his interest in free agents will be minimal this offseason.

The Reds should have a strong defensive infield in 2010, especially if they decide Janish's glovework makes up for his poor hitting.

Between Stubbs and Dickerson, the Reds should have a workable internal solution for center field that does not involve giving 400+ plate appearances to Taveras. Replacing Taveras and getting more out of Bruce and Rolen seems to be the easiest route to an improved offense in 2010.

Jocketty has spoken of his desire to add a "quality RBI man" despite the lack of payroll space. Non-tendering Gomes would make little sense, as he could be that RBI man for a few million bucks (Gomes slugged .541 this year).

Jocketty could also free up cash by trading Harang or Arroyo. A team like the Mets might be interested in assuming one of those contracts if the demand for players is minimal. But it's hard to see how that would improve the Reds, who are not in a position to subtract a starter now that Edinson Volquez is unlikely to contribute in 2010 (Tommy John surgery). The best rotation addition for the buck is probably free agent pitching coach Dave Duncan, but his inclination is to stay in St. Louis.

One pitcher Jocketty could afford to trade is Cordero, given Masset's success in 2009. The Reds' closer has two years and $25MM remaining. The problem is that the Reds would have to assume half his contract to make Cordero mildly appealing.

Jocketty overspent on Taveras and Lincoln a year ago, committing $10.25MM to the pair. Add that to the $11MM the Reds GM took on for Rolen next year, and it's clear the Reds don't have much flexibility this winter. Improvements will have to come from within.