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An Angels Error

By Connor Byrne | May 5, 2020 at 7:07pm CDT

The Angels inked infielder Zack Cozart to a three-year, $38MM contract after the 2017 season, but now he surely counts as one of their least effective big-money signings in recent memory. When the Angels brought Cozart in, they expected he would carry what looked like a breakout offensive season into the future. That didn’t happen. In fact, Cozart’s tenure with the Halos went so poorly that they essentially sold him and the $12MM-plus left on his contract to the Giants over the winter. The Angels had to include young shortstop Will Wilson, their first-round pick last summer, in the deal in order to get Cozart’s money off the books, and the Giants quickly released Cozart. He hasn’t found a new team since then.

For the most part, Cozart had an unspectacular run with the Reds, who selected him in the second round of the 2007 draft. From his 2011 debut through the 2016 campaign, he was roughly a one- to two-WAR type of player who wasn’t much of a threat as a hitter. He only combined to slash .246/.289/.385 (80 wRC+) in those seasons, but exceptional glovework made him a regular. Cozart managed 43 Defensive Runs Saved and a 31.4 Ultimate Zone Rating at shortstop during that span.

Considering his track record, the Reds would have been right to expect another low-offense, high-end defensive year out of Cozart in 2017. Instead, though, he produced a career campaign at the plate that helped make him one of the most valuable players in baseball. Owing in part to a significant increase in walks and a much higher batting average on balls in play than usual, Cozart hit .297/.385/.548 (139 wRC+) with a personal-best 24 home runs in 507 plate appearances. Between the increased offense and his above-average defense (4 DRS, 4 UZR), Cozart logged 5.0 fWAR. The timing couldn’t have been better for him, but the Reds weren’t fully convinced he was suddenly a star player. They didn’t issue Cozart a qualifying offer after his outstanding campaign, which surely made him more appealing to teams seeking infield help on the open market.

Although Cozart was a shortstop throughout his Cincinnati stint, he ultimately wound up with the Angels as a third baseman/second baseman. He wasn’t going to steal the shortstop job from Andrelton Simmons – one of the greatest defenders the game has ever seen – but the hope was that the two would eat up every ground ball that came their way, and that Cozart’s offensive explosion would prove to be sustainable. Unfortunately, though, Cozart was just passable, not extraordinary, as a defender with the Angels. In a little over 600 combined innings between the keystone and third from 2018-19, he recorded zero DRS and 1.0 UZR. But his value truly torpedoed because of his work at the plate, where he hit a hideous .190/.261/.296 (54 wRC+) with five homers and minus-0.6 fWAR as a member of the club.

Worsening matters, various injuries limited Cozart to a meager 96 games and 360 trips to the plate in an Angels uniform. Just last July, a left shoulder ailment forced Cozart to undergo season-ending shoulder surgery. That pretty much concluded Cozart’s run with the Angels, and it helped pave the way for the signing of third baseman Anthony Rendon to a seven-year, $245MM contract this past offseason.

Had Cozart actually lived up to his contract, it’s anyone’s guess whether Rendon would have turned into an Angel. Regardless, Cozart now counts as one of the most regrettable signings in franchise history, and it’s unclear whether the 34-year-old will ever play in the majors again. To Cozart’s credit, though, he can say something that most major leaguers can’t: He was a 5.0-WAR player once whose performance earned him a sizable payday.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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Cincinnati Reds Los Angeles Angels MLBTR Originals Zack Cozart

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A Quietly Built, Quietly Strong Bullpen

By Steve Adams | May 5, 2020 at 5:35pm CDT

The 2019 Twins captured the baseball world’s attention with their historic home run output, and most of the other talk surrounding the team focused on questions within the rotation. The Twins won the AL Central with ease but were yet again bounced by the Yankees in a familiarly lopsided series. Entering the offseason on a low note and with four starting pitchers reaching free agency, the focus was again on the rotation. Yet somewhere along the way, the Twins quietly put together one of the most formidable collections of relievers in the game.

Following last year’s All-Star break, Twins relievers ranked ninth in the Majors in ERA (4.03) but led MLB in FIP (3.56), xFIP (3.87), SIERA (3.53) K-BB% (20.7%) and walk rate (5.9%). The Twins, long known for their reliance on soft-tossing, “pitch to contact” arms, saw their bullpen post the fifth-best overall strikeout percentage (26.6%). They tied for fourth in swinging-strike percentage (13.1%) and ranked fifth in opponents’ chase rate on pitches outside the strike zone (33.9%).

A half season’s worth of bullpen data is obviously not a definitive declaration of their status as elite, but the post-All-Star-break qualifier is of some note with regard to the Twins in particular. Minnesota opened the season with a host of reclamation projects and cast-offs in the relief corps. From Opening Day through the Midsummer Classic, the Twins saw Mike Morin, Blake Parker, Matt Magill, Ryne Harper, Adalberto Mejia and Trevor Hildenberger all make at least 13 appearances and total 14 or more innings. Harper, to his credit, was a legitimate contributor — although fielding-independent metrics forecast some regression, and his production faded in the second half.

The rest of that largely nondescript group was more or less out of the picture in the second half. Mejia, Morin, Magill and Parker were designated for assignment in a span of two weeks in mid-July. Mejia was claimed by the Angels, Morin was traded to the Phillies for cash, Parker also signed in Philadelphia after electing free agency, and Magill was traded to Seattle for cash. Harper’s role was reduced as his results regressed, and Hildenberger only tossed 2 1/3 innings as September call-up before being non-tendered in the winter. (Harper was designated for assignment and traded to the Nats in February.)

What was left of the Twins’ bullpen proved to be a remarkably effective unit.

Taylor Rogers, Mitch Garver | Wendell Cruz-USA TODAY Sports

Taylor Rogers cemented himself as the club’s closer after the addition of a new slider spurred a 2018 breakout. He threw his first slider in 2018 on Memorial Day, and dating back to that game, Rogers owns a 2.07 ERA (2.52 FIP, 2.77 xFIP) with 11.4 K/9, 1.6 BB/9, 0.77 HR/9 and a 48.7 percent ground-ball rate in 117 1/3 innings.

Tyler Duffey showed promise as a starter in his debut season with Minnesota but had bounced between the Majors and minors since. Duffey has acknowledged that at first, he wasn’t fully comfortable or familiar with much of the new data that was presented to him by the Twins’ analytics department, but he fully bought in this year and ditched his two-seamer and changeup to go with a four-seam and curveball-heavy arsenal. The result? A 2.50 ERA (3.06 FIP, 2.94 xFIP) with a career-high 12.8 K/9 and a whopping 15.3 percent swinging strike rate. In the second half of the season, Duffey posted a 1.53 ERA with a 47-to-8 K/BB ratio.

Tyler Duffey | David Berding-USA TODAY Sports

Another former starter, Trevor May, has steadily improved his relief work since returning from Tommy John surgery in 2018. The 30-year-old free-agent-to-be rattled off 64 1/3 innings of 2.94 ERA ball in 2019, including a 2.81 ERA (3.81 FIP, 3.67 xFIP) in 32 second-half innings. May saw his strikeout percentage spike from 25.5% in the first half to a hefty 35% in the second half, and his walk rate made similarly positive gains (11.9% in the first half; 7.3% in the second).

The Twins’ late-July acquisition of veteran Sergio Romo wasn’t the biggest headline grabber of deadline season, but the three-time World Series champ pitched 22 2/3 innings of 3.18 ERA ball (3.35 FIP, 3.91 xFIP) with a pristine 27-to-4 K/BB ratio. The two-plus months Romo spent in the organization clearly made a favorable impression, as he returned on a one-year, $5MM deal with a club option for the 2021 season.

But the most anonymous parts of the bullpen’s success were rookie right-handers Zack Littell and Cody Stashak.

Littell, a 24-year-old rookie, was summoned for depth in mid-May and took a long-relief beating during a blowout in order to save the ’pen (eight runs in four innings). Optioned to Triple-A the next day, Littell returned about a month later and proceeded to reel off 30 2/3 innings of 0.88 ERA ball with a 27-to-8 K/BB ratio. The only runs scored against him came on a trio of solo homers. Obviously, Littell isn’t going to make it through a season with a 100% strand rate, but that dominant finish to the year likely cemented his spot in the ’pen.

As for Stashak, he was never regarded as a prospect of particular note even within the Twins’ system, but he logged a 3.13 ERA with a 23-to-1 K/BB ratio in 23 innings in his MLB debut. Stashak is an extreme fly-ball pitcher who doesn’t throw especially hard or generate great spin on his heater or four-seamer … yet he posted an eye-popping 28.7% swinging-strike rate on his slider last year. There’s likely some regression coming for both Littell and Stashak, but both positioned themselves as near-term pieces even if they do take a step back.

At this point, outside of Rogers, the closer, it’s perhaps become apparent that this is a group of all right-handers. As such, targeting lefty relievers seemed like a logical course of action this winter. And the Twins did indeed go out and get the reliever who was the second-toughest pitcher on lefties in all of baseball last year (min. 30 innings): Tyler Clippard — another righty.

Clippard joined the Twins on a modest $2.75MM guarantee for the 2020 season, and while he doesn’t throw with his left hand (obviously), his dominant changeup makes him an excellent weapon against southpaw swingers all the same. Lefties posted a laughable .123/.210/.255 batting line against Clippard in 2019. That translated to a .207 wOBA, tying Roberto Osuna and trailing only Oliver Drake (another former Twin — oops) for best in the big leagues. That wasn’t necessarily a one-year aberration, either, as Clippard has better career numbers against lefties (.187/.266/.322) than righties (.207/.295/.387).

If the Twins want to add a true lefty to the mix, they can always move Devin Smeltzer and/or hard-throwing Lewis Thorpe into that role, although the plan for them  appeared to be to continue working as starters early this spring. Perhaps expanded rosters will bring that pair and others into play; righties Randy Dobnak, Jorge Alcala and Sean Poppen all made their big league debuts last year, with Dobnak in particular impressing as a starter. Waiver claim Matt Wisler is another depth option with an intriguing Statcast profile. Among non-roster players, southpaw Danny Coulombe punched out 61 hitters in 36 1/3 Triple-A frames last year and had looked impressive with the Twins this spring. Jhoulys Chacin could give some long relief innings and provide rotation depth.

The Twins’ bullpen may be lacking a bit in name value, but among the 366 pitchers who faced at least 200 hitters last year, the Twins placed five in the top 70 in terms of xwOBA: Rogers (20), Duffey (22), Clippard (31), Romo (43) and May (tied for 70th). And none of their second half success was attributable to their biggest deadline pickup — righty Sam Dyson, who now famously kept a shoulder injury to himself prior to being traded and required surgery after just 11 1/3 ugly innings.

When a team jettisons about half its bullpen in a two-week span in July and sees its primary deadline acquisition bust, most would expect rough waters ahead. Instead, the Twins quietly enjoyed some of the best relief work of any club in last year’s second half and look well positioned for the future. Both May and Clippard will be free agents this coming winter, but there’s plenty of room to re-sign either and several depth in-house depth options to step up into those spots should they land elsewhere.

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MLBTR Originals Minnesota Twins Cody Stashak Sergio Romo Taylor Rogers Trevor May Tyler Clippard Tyler Duffey Zack Littell

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Boras Calls For Resumption Of Spring Training

By Jeff Todd | May 5, 2020 at 1:25pm CDT

In an op-ed published by the New York Times, super-agent Scott Boras has called for baseball to “return the players to spring training-style camps as soon as possible.” The idea would be for MLB to take steps now to lead into a season that would provide fans with a “sense of hope and normalcy.”

It’s obviously not a unique concept to suggest holding a 2020 campaign — or to launch a second Spring Training in advance thereof. All of the various coronavirus-altered scheduling proposals have included some concept of players ramping back up to prepare.

What’s notable about the proposal from the game’s most powerful player representative is that it is premised not on a specific plan for resuming play, but on launching the preparatory steps even without one. Perhaps concerned with the possibility of a rushed second spring, and/or sensing a chance to build some momentum, Boras proposes re-gathering the players and support personnel that were scattered by the mid-March suspension of pre-season activities.

Boras writes:

“Even before we know when, where and how we will have an Opening Day, we should give players the chance to ramp up for Major League competition. Like many others, they are doing their best to make things work without access to the ballparks that are their ’offices.’ But the best basement batting cage or backyard mound can’t give world-class hitters and pitchers the game-speed preparation they need.”

Some might think this is putting the cart before the horse, particularly given the many concerns with ramping up economic and social activity at all at a point where infections are still on the rise.

But Boras does also suggest utilizing “staggered reporting dates” to ease the transition. And perhaps there’s an important underlying point here: by starting with team-by-team gathering for training, and then building up from there, MLB can iron out workable processes and accelerate as circumstances permit. It’s arguable that the alternative — at some point, declaring a target start date and then trying to ramp to prepare for it — is actually more fraught with risk and less likely to succeed.

Boras also notes that we can now learn from the experiences of Asian leagues. As we covered earlier today, Taiwan’s league is even nearing live fan attendance. Of course, even the preparatory stages that have led to a regular season in Taiwan and Korea only occurred after public disease transmission was brought under control.

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Uncategorized Coronavirus

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Latest On Michael Fulmer’s Rehab Progress

By Jeff Todd | May 5, 2020 at 12:29pm CDT

Tigers righty Michael Fulmer appears to be making nice progress in his attempt to rehabilitate following Tommy John surgery. As Chris McCosky of the Detroit News reports, the team finds itself trying to hold him back.

Fulmer is working out at the team’s Florida complex, so it’s not implausible that he could face live hitters. But pitching coach Rick Anderson says there’s “no chance” of that at the moment.

Though it seems Fulmer is fully on track from a physical perspective, the team understandably wishes to proceed in a measured and cautious manner. Anderson suggests that the team would like to build Fulmer up slowly from live bullpen sessions into sim game action.

It’s tempting to think that moving ahead now could set Fulmer up to be ready at the start of the season. But the team is understandably concerned with unleashing Fulmer without full oversight and structure in place. The 27-year-old was once and could again be a key asset for a Detroit organization that is firmly in rebuilding mode at present.

[RELATED: A Missed Opportunity For The Tigers?]

Fulmer is controllable through the 2022 season, so the team is wisely taking the long view. That’s probably best for him as well. Fulmer battled knee and other health issues even before blowing out his ulnar collateral ligament. If he’s to return to the quality pitching he provided in 2016-17, Fulmer will need to return to and remain at full health.

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Detroit Tigers Michael Fulmer

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Taiwan’s CPBL Preparing For Live Attendance

By Jeff Todd | May 5, 2020 at 11:09am CDT

Having successfully staged live professional ballgames for a month in the midst of a global pandemic, Taiwan’s Chinese Professional Baseball League is now preparing for the next step. As CPBLStats.com covers, the league is preparing to welcome fans through the gates.

Taiwan’s CDC, which has overseen one of the world’s most successful responses to the coronavirus, already greenlit a proposal for 250 fans per contest. (Per the Fubon Guardians’ Twitter account.) The CPBL has already sought approval for permission to let a thousand fans through the door as soon as this weekend.

It won’t quite be business as usual, to say the least. The turnstiles won’t be rotating quite as many times as normal. And there will be restrictions on those that show up to see a ballgame in the flesh. Fans will not only have to provide their names and undergo temperature screening on their way in, but will need to maintain social distancing and don masks during the contest.

The CPBL became the first professional baseball league to launch after the coronavirus crisis halted play around the world. And it remains a clear success story, with no indication that play has interfered with efforts to protect the health and welfare of participants or the broader public. It’s also no longer alone in staging ballgames, with the Korea Baseball Organization kicking off play overnight.

Though it’s tempting to interpret these developments as cause for optimism, the sobering reality is that the situation is far different in Taiwan and Korea than in North America. Those countries have only reached the point of staging sports — and, now, allowing fans to congregate — after all but fully stomping out the spread of COVID-19.

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Uncategorized Coronavirus

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Jon Lester Discusses His Future

By Jeff Todd | May 5, 2020 at 10:35am CDT

As he waits with the rest of us for the return of baseball, Cubs southpaw Jon Lester chatted with Rob Bradford of WEEI.com about his current activities and future plans. It’s well worth a full read, but we’ll cover a few items of particular hot stove relevance.

Lester certainly doesn’t sound like a player who’s preparing to wrap up his career at the end of his contract. He spoke not only of preparing for the upcoming season but of his future on the mound.

Lester’s free agent deal includes a 2021 vesting/mutual option that would be guaranteed at $25MM if he throws 200 frames in 2020. (With a hefty $10MM buyout, the actual cost difference is $15MM.) The innings target will be prorated to account for a shortened season. Regardless, it’s difficult to imagine the Cubs letting him reach it.

“We’ll figure that out one way or the other,” says Lester. “I will either be here or be a free agent. … I’m open-minded to anything.”

Anything? Anything at all? It may not mean much, but Lester went on to drop an eyebrow-raising line that’s sure to pique the interest of Red Sox fans: “Absolutely it would be cool to go back and finish my career where it all started.”

As Lester noted, there’s still quite a lot of uncertainty to be dealt with before considering where he’ll throw in 2021. “Hopefully, I’m still a good enough caliber pitcher that the want of my services will still be out there for people,” he says. Lester went on to note: “I’m not getting any younger and coming off a year like I had last year, this [season delay] isn’t going to help me.”

It’s hard to imagine there won’t be a market for Lester’s services, even if he’s not the same guy he once was. He allowed more than four earned runs per nine for the second time in three seasons last year. ERA estimators didn’t expect better based upon his peripherals (4.26 FIP; 4.35 xFIP; 4.49 SIERA). Then again, Lester also made 31 starts again … as he has for a remarkable dozen-straight seasons. (Actually, he typically takes the ball 32 or 33 times.)

Lester may not be capable of producing to his own lofty standards, but he was still a quality rotation piece in 2019. He’s also not wrong that, at 36 years of age, his desirability on the open market will depend in large part upon what he’s able to show in 2020 — if indeed there is a season. Lester tells Bradford that he’s staying active but also trying not to “waste bullets down here in the backyard or at some high school,” instead saving them while waiting for “a date to ramp it up.” Here’s hoping he’ll have a chance to do so soon.

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Boston Red Sox Chicago Cubs Jon Lester

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MLBPA Chief Tony Clark On Resumption Of Play

By Jeff Todd | May 5, 2020 at 8:55am CDT

MLBPA chief Tony Clark recently discussed the pandemic-driven baseball hiatus with ESPN.com’s Marly Rivera. While specifics remain frustratingly unavailable, it’s important to understand the thinking of the top union official regarding the potential resumption of play.

We’d all love for conditions to permit the 2020 season to begin, but Clark indicates that it remains unclear precisely when and how that might occur. “I don’t know that there is a definitive plan yet,” he says.

Clark acknowledged that “it is a delicate balance” in deciding upon a route back and that “there may never be a perfect time” to move forward. But the union intends to “work alongside the league to find that right spot in time to get us back on the field,” with the hope being that “it is sooner rather than later.”

While we’ve heard chatter over disagreements regarding player salaries in the event of TV-only games, Clark frames things a bit differently — unsurprisingly, given the union’s stance. “Our position is that with respect to player salaries, we’ve had that discussion already,” says Clark. “Our focus now is on health and safety moving forward.”

While the union’s position is that the matter of paychecks is already decided, Clark also seemed to acknowledge a possible need to revisit the matter when details of the 2020 season come into clearer focus.

“We have an agreement in place that speaks to a reduction in player salaries in a season that’s less than 162 games. That agreement is in place. Any further discussion, then the league has the ability to make additional proposals against the backdrop of situations that may have been contemplated in the initial agreement but are different or may be different moving forward, and we have the ability to respond.”

That’s rather obscure — likely by design. But Clark seems to be suggesting that, even if MLB is right that player salaries can be revisited in the event of attendance-free contests, the onus is on the league to show cause for any further reductions.

There’s obviously a lot of public relations posturing in these comments (as with those of MLB officials). After emphasizing the union’s focus on health — which is both a legitimate concern and better ground to stand upon than compensation — Clark noted: “We’ll see whether or to what extent the league is focused on something different.”

Clark acknowledged ongoing conversations regarding the need to “mitigate as much risk as possible” and to address possible liabilities, but it doesn’t sound as if much has been decided. The sides haven’t discussed the next CBA in connection with the 2020 season, he added, which suggests that complicated matter won’t become directly intertwined the uncharted ground currently being navigated.

Needless to say, there are many potential stumbling blocks in the realm of labor relations. But the sides both have huge incentive to facilitate a path back to play and to avoid open conflict over profits. Ultimately, Clark says: “the lines of communication are open, and as long as they are open, there’s an opportunity to work through and try and find common ground despite our differences.”

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Uncategorized Coronavirus

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Has Seattle Found Its Solution At Short?

By Connor Byrne | May 5, 2020 at 1:41am CDT

He’s still only 25, but if you go back to his days as a prospect, Mariners shortstop J.P. Crawford was seen as an elite young talent. Crawford was the 16th overall pick of the Phillies in 2013, and Baseball America ranked him as the sixth-best farmhand in the sport after the 2015 season.

“At his best, he has a future as an all-star shortstop who can play above-average defense and hit for power,” BA wrote.

Crawford, however, hasn’t realized that vast potential with either organization he has played for to this point. Injuries did play a part in derailing Crawford’s tenure with the Phillies, but even when he was healthy enough to take a major league field from 2017-18, he put together an unspectacular line of .214/.333/.358 with three home runs in 225 plate appearances. Having seen enough, the Phillies dealt Crawford to the Mariners in December 2018 in what was a rather noteworthy trade. The retooling Mariners gave up infielder Jean Segura and relievers Juan Nicasio and James Pazos in order to acquire Crawford and first baseman Carlos Santana.

There’s no more Santana in Seattle – the team flipped him to Cleveland before he ever donned an M’s uniform – so the deal was largely about finding a long-term answer at shortstop. For at least some portion of last season, it looked as the Mariners were on to something. Crawford came flying out of the gates after debuting with the Mariners in the first half of last May, but his production plummeted after June.

In each of July, August and September, Crawford posted a wRC+ of less than 65. With an overall mark of 63 in the second half of the season, he was the third-worst offensive player in baseball, logging a .188/.288/.299 line in 229 trips to the plate. Crawford did draw walks (11.8 percent) and limit strikeouts (18.8) better than the average hitter then, though a .224 batting average on balls in play down the stretch didn’t help his cause. However, Crawford largely brought the low BABIP on himself with a lack of meaningful contact. According to FanGraphs, Crawford finished with the majors’ second-highest soft-contact rate (26 percent) and its third-worst hard-contact percentage (24.1). Statcast wasn’t impressed, either, as it placed Crawford in the basement of the league in important offensive categories such as average exit velocity, expected weighted on-base average and barrel percentage, to name a few.

The biggest roadblock the left-handed Crawford faced in 2019 was his inability to do anything against same-handed hurlers, who turned him into one of the worst hitters in the league. He batted an awful .160/.268/.179 with a stunningly low .019 ISO against them, but a much more palatable .255/.333/.456 with a .201 ISO versus righties. Unfortunately, it wasn’t the first time Crawford has run into that type of trouble, evidenced in part by the fact that he has never hit a single homer off a lefty during 144 tries in his career, and he’s a lifetime .144/.272/.171 batter against them. To state the obvious, that’s not going to cut it.

Crawford’s going to have to major strides against southpaws in order to amount to anything more than a platoon player in the majors. And it’s not as if he has shown he’s a defensive wizard whose work at short will cover for his flaws at the plate. Through almost 1,100 innings (including 806 a season ago), he has put up minus-9 Defensive Runs Saved and a minus-1.7 Ultimate Zone Rating.

The good news is that there’s still time for Crawford to figure it out. He’s controllable for five more years, and the Mariners don’t look as if they’ll contend for at least the next season or two, so they can afford to be patient with Crawford. So far, though, Crawford hasn’t shown many signs that he’ll live up to the hype he garnered as a prospect.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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MLBTR Originals Seattle Mariners J.P. Crawford

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KBO/NPB Notes: Rucinski, C. Stewart, N. Soto

By Connor Byrne | May 4, 2020 at 11:37pm CDT

We’re nearing the start of the 2020 season for the Korea Baseball Organization, whose campaign will begin at 1 a.m. ET on Tuesday with fives games set to take place. If you’re still awake then, you’ll be able to catch the NC Dinos-Samsung Lions matchup on ESPN, which reached a broadcast deal with the KBO on Monday. As MLBTR’s Steve Adams pointed out a couple weeks ago, both teams feature some familiar faces. Ex-major leaguers Aaron Altherr, Mike Wright and Drew Rucinski are members of the Dinos, and Seunghwan Oh, Tyler Saladino, David Buchanan and Ben Lively are on the Lions’ roster. If you want to learn more about those two teams and the rest of the league’s other clubs, check out this in-depth primer from ESPN.com.

With that, we’ll dive into some more baseball notes out of Asia…

  • The right-handed Rucinski, who will start the Dinos’ opener, appeared in the majors with the Angels, Twins and Marlins from 2014-18. He immigrated to the KBO prior to last season and wound up recording an impressive 3.05 ERA over 177 1/3 innings. Rucinski spoke with Kyle Glaser of Baseball America (podcast) about what life is currently like in the KBO, whose season will get underway without spectators. “It’s kind of weird because the fans are such a big part of the game here,” said Rucinski, who has tossed two exhibition games without anyone in attendance. That’s just one of the topics covered in their chat (coronavirus precautions and family life are also among them). The interview’s worth a full listen.
  • Shifting to Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball, Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks righty Carter Stewart discussed his experience abroad with Kyodo News and the Japan Baseball Weekly Podcast. Stewart was the eighth overall pick of the Braves in 2018, but he was unable to reach an agreement with them, so he decided to sign in Asia last year. The 20-year-old indicated that he’s pleased with his choice. “I think the baseball is fantastic over here,” Stewart said. “I really enjoy the fan base. I enjoy the people. I enjoy everything about it, so what is the driving factor for me to go back home? Maybe at some point I’ll have an opportunity to go back to the States, but I have no restraints for staying over here until I’m 50.”
  • Looking ahead to major league free agency next offseason, infielder/outfielder Neftali Soto could be a name to keep in mind. Soto was a 2007 third-round pick of the Reds who has not produced in the majors, but he mashed in the minors with the Nationals in 2017 and has carried that into NPB. Since signing with the Yokohoma Baystars before the 2018 season, Soto has batted .288/.355/.594 with a whopping 84 home runs in 1,043 trips to the plate. He’s a back-to-back HR champion, having amassed 41 two years ago and 43 in 2019. Between those numbers and his defensive versatility, he could find himself on MLB teams’ radars in the offseason.
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Korea Baseball Organization Notes Carter Stewart Drew Rucinski Neftali Soto

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The Reds May Have To Replace 2 Solid Starters

By Connor Byrne | May 4, 2020 at 10:04pm CDT

If we’re lucky enough to see a 2020 Major League Baseball season, it could prove to be the year the Reds finally escape from a long-running stint toward the bottom of the National League Central. Not only did the Reds have an aggressive offseason, as MLBTR’s TC Zencka outlined, but they feature one of the game’s most promising rotations on paper. Luis Castillo, Sonny Gray, Trevor Bauer, Anthony DeSclafani and free-agent pickup Wade Miley comprise a formidable starting five. The problem for the Reds is that they may never see that rotation in action if the coronavirus leads to a canceled season. Even if that group does work together this year, there’s a decent chance that neither Bauer nor DeSclafani will be part of the team beyond then.

Bauer may be the No. 1 starter on a market that won’t have a Gerrit Cole or a Stephen Strasburg type. Granted, Bauer’s only two years removed from performing like an elite pitcher with the Indians. Last season wasn’t nearly as successful, though, as Bauer had immense difficulty keeping runs off the board after the Reds acquired him from their in-state rivals in July. Bauer has pitched to a horrid 6.39 ERA in 56 1/3 innings in their uniform so far, but the Reds are no doubt expecting a rebound in 2020. Otherwise, they wouldn’t have kept the 29-year-old strikeout artist around on a $17.5MM salary.

DeSclafani won’t cost the Reds nearly as much this year (just under $6MM), but the 30-year-old gave the Reds better numbers than Bauer in 2019. Returning from two injury-affected seasons, DeSclafani logged a 3.89 ERA/4.43 FIP with 9.02 K/9 and 2.65 BB/9 in 166 2/3 innings. Even if there’s no season, then, he should be able to find a decent payday should he join Bauer on the open market.

The Reds will definitely take a hit if they lose both Bauer and DeSclafani, though the good news is that Castillo, Gray and Miley should still make for a solid foundation a year from now. What would they do about the other two spots, though? Well, the Reds do have a slew of pitchers among their highest-graded prospects – MLB.com has six pitchers in the team’s top 15, including No. 1-ranked Nick Lodolo – but it remains to be seen how many will be able to contribute in the near term. And perhaps someone like former top prospect Jose De Leon, whom the Reds traded for in November, could force his way into the mix. There’s also Tyler Mahle, who was a standout farmhand in his own right not that long ago, though his production was less than stellar during a 25-start season in 2019 (5.14 ERA/4.66 in 129 2/3 innings).

If the Reds aren’t sold on their in-house options for next season, there are always the trade and free-agency routes. Notably, the Reds didn’t draft a single member of their current rotation – they either a swung a deal to land them or signed them. So, you know president of baseball operations Dick Williams and general manager Nick Krall aren’t shy about looking elsewhere, and they further proved it this past offseason by signing Miley, Nicholas Castellanos, Mike Moustakas, Shogo Akiyama and Pedro Strop to deals worth a combined $165MM-plus. Based on that level of spending, you’d think the Reds would do their best to retain Bauer and DeSclafani. If not, they could try for any number of free agents (Robbie Ray, Marcus Stroman, Mike Minor, Jose Quintana, Masahiro Tanaka and James Paxton are also on track to become available) and/or make a trade. It’s tough to speculate so far in advance as to who may wind up on the block, but Mike Clevinger and Carlos Carrasco (Indians), Jon Gray (Rockies) and Chris Archer (Pirates) are a few of the starters who come to mind.

COVID-19 is negatively affecting every team, but Cincinnati might be near the top. It has built what looks like a respectable team as a whole and a capable starting staff, but there’s a chance it won’t get to see its present roster in action. And it’s going to sting even worse if the Reds lose Bauer after giving up a well-regarded prospect in outfielder Taylor Trammell for him last summer. The Reds will likely issue Bauer a qualifying offer next winter, which would entitle them to some compensation if he departs, but that wasn’t the goal when they acquired him. Rather, the hope is that Bauer and DeSclafani will help form an easily above-average rotation in 2020 and end the club’s six-year playoff drought.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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Cincinnati Reds MLBTR Originals Anthony DeSclafani Trevor Bauer

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