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Giants Have Shown Interest In Brendan Donovan

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Brendan Donovan has been one of the top trade targets for clubs seeking offensive help. The Royals, Mariners, Pirates, Guardians and Astros have all been tied to the lefty-hitting utilityman at points this offseason.

Derrick Goold of The St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports that the Giants have been in the mix for Donovan as well. Goold lists San Francisco alongside Seattle and Kansas City among the teams that have kept in touch with the Cardinals as they gauge the market. Tim Healey of The Boston Globe reports that the Red Sox have also talked with the Cards about Donovan, though he’s one of myriad star infielders whom Boston has considered.

The Giants are looking to add at second base. Casey Schmitt is the favorite to start there but probably fits better as a utility player. San Francisco had one of the least productive second base groups in MLB overall. Schmitt was a league average hitter, while Tyler Fitzgerald’s strikeout issues prevented him from building off an impressive 2024 rookie season. Donovan is coming off a .287/.353/.422 season and owns a very similar line in more than 2000 career plate appearances. He’d be a significant upgrade at second base and has the flexibility to help out in the corner outfield.

Kansas City surprisingly tendered a contract to Jonathan India. He’ll probably be back at second base, so Donovan might fit better for them in left field. They could also use India at designated hitter on days when Salvador Perez is behind the plate.

Seattle is hopeful of re-signing free agent second baseman Jorge Polanco. They’ve reportedly had a gap on the contract length, and president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto spoke yesterday of preparing for the possibility that Polanco signs elsewhere. There’s been some thought that he could sign before the Winter Meetings are out tomorrow.

A Donovan trade, if it happens at all, doesn’t appear to be imminent. Goold writes that president of baseball operations Chaim Bloom and his staff are taking their time to evaluate offers. Ryan Divish and Adam Jude of The Seattle Times write similarly that Donovan is not expected to be moved before the end of the week.

Donovan is under club control for another two seasons. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects him for a $5.4MM salary. That’ll likely climb into the $8-10MM range in 2027. The Cardinals haven’t firmly committed to trading Donovan, but there’s been no indication that an extension is on the table. They’re entering a rebuild, so it’d be a surprise if he’s not in another uniform by Opening Day. The Cardinals are pursuing controllable starting pitching in their trade conversations.

Orioles Among Teams In Discussion With Marlins On Edward Cabrera

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The Orioles are among the clubs in conversations with the Marlins about hard-throwing starter Edward Cabrera, report Ken Rosenthal and Will Sammon of The Athletic. There’s been a decent amount of smoke regarding a potential Cabrera trade over the past week, and The Athletic writes that Miami’s talks with other clubs have picked up.

Cabrera is one of the higher-upside arms in the sport. He got out to a slow start but turned in a 2.95 earned run average while striking out 26.5% of opponents in 20 appearances between the beginning of May and the end of August. Cabrera has always had power stuff, but he dialed in his control and walked fewer than 7% of batters faced over that four-month stretch. The 27-year-old righty was one of the more intriguing deadline trade candidates, but Miami never received an offer they found compelling.

Holding Cabrera was defensible given his talent and extended window of affordable team control. It wasn’t without risk, though, particularly from a health perspective. Cabrera has battled shoulder issues in the past, and he’d never topped 100 MLB innings in a season before this year. While the shoulder wasn’t an issue in 2025, he was diagnosed with an elbow sprain at the beginning of September. It briefly raised fears about a possible Tommy John surgery. He instead wound up missing only three weeks and returned to make two starts to finish the season.

The Marlins wouldn’t have brought Cabrera back for two largely meaningless games if they felt he were at a serious risk of re-injury. (Miami was still mathematically alive in the Wild Card race into the season’s final week but never had a real chance of getting to the playoffs.) Cabrera didn’t look any worse for wear. His fastball was back up around 98 MPH on average, and he punched out seven Mets hitters across five scoreless innings in the season’s final game.

Miami has nevertheless remained open to offers that would swap a starter for much needed offensive help. They’ve taken Eury Pérez off the table but are willing to discuss the rest of their rotation. Cabrera has the highest trade value of that group. He’s under club control for three seasons and projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz for a $3.7MM salary.

The Fish could swap Cabrera for hitting while opening the season with a rotation comprising Pérez, Sandy Alcantara, Ryan Weathers, Braxton Garrett and Max Meyer. They have Janson Junk and Ryan Gusto as depth options and top prospects Robby Snelling and Thomas White looming in the high minors. They’d probably look to add a more stable source of innings at the back end, but it’d still be a high-ceiling group.

Baltimore and Miami have already lined up on one huge pitching for offense swap in recent years. The Marlins sent Trevor Rogers to the Orioles for Kyle Stowers and Connor Norby at the 2024 deadline. It initially looked lopsided in Miami’s favor with Stowers’ emergence as an impact bat. Rogers’ late-season dominance this year is potentially rebalancing the scales. The Orioles still need to raise the ceiling of the rotation alongside Rogers and Kyle Bradish, while their controllable infield talent (e.g. Jordan Westburg, Coby Mayo) aligns nicely with Miami’s needs.

Pirates To Sign Gregory Soto

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Another reliever has come off the board. The Pirates are reportedly in agreement with left-hander Gregory Soto on a one-year, $7.75MM contract. Soto is represented by Epitome Sports Management. Pittsburgh had an opening on the 40-man roster and will not need to make a corresponding move.

Soto made 70 appearances between the Orioles and Mets last season. A solid first half in Baltimore led to a swap with New York around the trade deadline. Soto began his Mets tenure with nine straight scoreless outings, but stumbled down the stretch. The veteran lefty posted a 7.94 ERA in September as New York fell short of a playoff spot.

Pittsburgh will be Soto’s fifth team in the past five seasons. He debuted for Detroit in 2019 and soon became a crucial part of the team’s late-inning mix. Soto emerged as the Tigers closer by 2021, finishing with 18 saves and an All-Star nod. He racked up 30 saves the following season, earning a return trip to the Midsummer Classic. Detroit shipped him to Philadelphia following the 2022 campaign for a package headlined by Matt Vierling. After a season and a half with a mid-4.00s ERA, Soto was dealt to Baltimore at the 2024 trade deadline.

The Pirates’ bullpen ranked 18th in SIERA and 22nd in xFIP last season. The unit lost longtime closer David Bednar and top lefty Caleb Ferguson at the trade deadline. Dennis Santana performed well in multiple stints as the closer and will likely retain the role in 2026. Pittsburgh has minimal proven options behind him, particularly from the left side. Evan Sisk was the only southpaw penciled into the bullpen prior to the Soto addition.

Soto struggled mightily with free passes while in Detroit, posting a walk rate above 12% in all four seasons with the team. He’s cleaned up those control issues in recent years and recorded a career-low 8.6% walk rate last season. Soto’s upper-90s sinker has typically led to healthy ground ball rates, though he finished with a league-average GB% this past season. The sinker velocity has ticked down in each of the past three years. Opponents hit .314 against Soto’s sinker last season. Most of the damage came during his time with the Mets, and a hefty .392 BABIP is likely to blame. Soto’s slider still got whiffs at an excellent rate, so he can still be effective if the sinker bounces back.

MLBTR had predicted Soto to receive a two-year, $16MM contract. He settles for one year just shy of the $8MM average annual value. The Pirates reportedly had roughly $40MM in payroll space this winter. This won’t impact their pursuit of free agent hitters after their unsuccessful pursuit of Kyle Schwarber.

ESPN’s Jorge Castillo first reported the signing.

Phillies Re-Sign Kyle Schwarber

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The Phillies are bringing him back. Slugger Kyle Schwarber has returned to the Phils on a five-year contract, the team announced. It’s reportedly a $150MM guarantee that pays the Excel Sports Management client an even $30MM per season. The Phils had multiple 40-man vacancies and didn’t need to make a corresponding move.

The deal is a testament to Schwarber’s elite talents as it sets new precedents in a few different ways. Schwarber is primarily a designated hitter, having played the outfield just 13 times combined over the past two years. He is also turning 33 years old in March.

Those are both qualities which tend to tamp down a player’s earning power. As shown in MLBTR’s Contract Tracker, the biggest guarantee for any free agent age-33 or older was Josh Donaldson’s $92MM deal with the Twins, which was signed when he was still a capable third baseman. Pure designated hitters also tend not to get paid. Per the Contract Tracker, Shohei Ohtani is the only free agent DH to get to nine figures. He was obviously a special case as a two-way player and superstar. J.D Martinez signed a five-year, $110MM deal with the Red Sox in 2018. He was still an outfielder at the time but did become more of a DH over the course of that pact.

Schwarber himself has proved to be a special case, as he just keeps getting better at the plate. He has always been a guy who strikes out and walks a lot, with notable power mixed in. From 2017 to 2021, he was generally good for about 30 home runs per year. He got to 38 in 2019, but that was the year with the juiced balls.

Over the past four years, Schwarber has never finished with fewer than 38 long balls. He’s reached 46 in three of those four. In 2025, he set a new personal best with 56. He has also erased his previous platoon issues. In 2024, he slashed .300/.407/.490 for a 152 wRC+ against lefties, compared to a .218/.342/.482 line and 124 wRC+ otherwise. In 2025, those lines were .252/.366/.598 and .232/.364/.541 for respective wRC+ numbers of 162 and 146.

On top of the statistics, Schwarber has received praise for his leadership and clubhouse presence during his time with the Phillies. They clearly wanted to bring him back but plenty of other teams were interested as well. The Mets, Pirates, Reds, Red Sox, Orioles and Giants were all connected to him in recent weeks. The Bucs even reportedly made an offer of four-years and $120MM, a very bold gesture for a club that has never signed a free agent for more than $39MM.

But amid all that interest from other clubs, it always seemed like the safe bet would be Schwarber returning to Philadelphia. He was clearly beloved in the city and in the clubhouse. The Phils have a number of other needs but they have been aggressive spenders in recent years and it seemed like they would likely top whatever deal Schwarber got elsewhere. They have done so and, as mentioned, set new benchmarks for free agent deals for a hitter this age or a designated hitter of any age. MLBTR predicted he could secure a five-year, $135MM deal. He got those five years but did a bit better than predicted in terms of the average annual value.

Per RosterResource, the deal brings the Phils up to a payroll of $270MM and a competitive balance tax figure of $289MM. At the end of 2025, those numbers were $291MM and $314MM. If they plan on getting to a similar spot in 2026, they have about $20MM left to play with.

They still have a few things on the to-do list. In addition to Schwarber, they also want to bring back catcher J.T. Realmuto, who also became a free agent at the end of the 2025 season. Remaking the outfield and adding to the pitching staff are also on the agenda. $20MM wouldn’t be a ton to do all of that, so perhaps they will be willing to raise the payroll again, though they could also try to accomplish a few things on the trade market.

For the other teams, it’s possible that this opens the offseason floodgates. The position player section of free agency has been slow moving so far. Early on, Trent Grisham and Gleyber Torres accepted qualifying offers. The Mariners and Josh Naylor quickly reunited. For the past three weeks, there have been no multi-year deals for free agent hitters.

Now that Schwarber is off the board, the clubs who fell short will be pivoting to other options. Some of those clubs won’t be players for Kyle Tucker or Bo Bichette but perhaps Cody Bellinger, Pete Alonso, Eugenio Suárez, Alex Bregman and others will see their markets heat up in the coming days and weeks.

Jeff Passan of ESPN first reported the five-year, $150MM agreement. Bob Nightengale of USA Today had the even salary breakdown. Photos courtesy of Jayne Kamin-Oncea, Imagn Images

Orioles Made $150MM Offer To Kyle Schwarber

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The first major free agent chip fell this morning with Kyle Schwarber returning to Philadelphia on a five-year, $150MM deal. The reunion seemed likely from the start, though the slugger had several other suitors, including at least one willing to match the $150MM price tag. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reported the Orioles offered Schwarber the same deal he ultimately accepted with the Phillies.

President of baseball operations Mike Elias has made it clear the team is looking for an impact bat, even after acquiring Taylor Ward. The Orioles still have a significant gap between last year’s payroll and their financial outlook for next season, giving them the potential flexibility for a large expenditure. The club has already spent some money this offseason, though it’s all gone to the bullpen. Baltimore added Ryan Helsley on a two-year, $28MM deal and picked up the $9MM option on Andrew Kittredge after acquiring him from the Cubs.

Camden Yards would’ve been a fun fit for Schwarber. Statcast’s Park Factors ranked it as the third-best home run venue for left-handed hitters. Citizens Bank Park tops the list, so Schwarber isn’t missing out on much by spurning the Orioles.

Baltimore will now turn its attention to the remaining free agent bats, including Pete Alonso. The Orioles and Red Sox are expected to meet face-to-face with the former Met this week. Baltimore’s lineup is strong up the middle and behind the plate, but there should be room to make additions at the corners and DH. Youngsters Samuel Basallo and Coby Mayo will likely factor in at first base and DH, but they wouldn’t preclude the club from adding a player like Alonso. Rosenthal noted the club is also considering Kyle Tucker in its pursuit of an elite hitter.

Pittsburgh’s interest in Schwarber was met with skepticism, but the club came through with a legitimate offer. Rosenthal had the Pirates’ proposal at four years and $120MM, while Alex Stumpf of MLB.com reported the club offered $125MM. Pittsburgh’s offer either met or exceeded the Philles’ deal in terms of average annual value, according to those reports. The fifth year could’ve been the trump card, but it’s hard to scoff at an offer worth upwards of $30MM per season.

Landing Schwarber for anywhere near those reported numbers would have easily set a franchise record for a free agent signing. The current mark is $39MM for Francisco Liriano in 2014. Pittsburgh’s last multi-year signing was a three-year deal with Ivan Nova heading into the 2017 campaign.

GM Ben Cherington previously touted the team’s increased financial flexibility this offseason, and the front office is doing what it can to make a big splash. Pittsburgh was also in on Josh Naylor before he re-signed with Seattle. Stumpf noted that the club will now turn its attention to another former Mariner, Jorge Polanco. The Pirates are expected to have an offer to him soon, per Stumpf.

Cincinnati had been connected to Schwarber given its proximity to his hometown. Rosenthal had the Reds’ offer at five years, but closer to $125MM. C. Trent Rosecrans of The Athletic reported that Schwarber and his wife met with Cincinnati brass before Thanksgiving.

Unlike the Orioles and Pirates, the Reds are not expected to redirect the money offered to Schwarber elsewhere. Their pursuit of the slugger was driven by the idea that signing him would benefit ticket sales, per Rosenthal. Schwarber is from Middletown, Ohio, less than an hour from Great American Ball Park.

Photo courtesy of Bill Streicher, Imagn Images

Mets Open To Dealing David Peterson

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The Mets are willing to entertain offers on starter David Peterson, write Tim Britton and Will Sammon of The Athletic. That probably wouldn’t be for prospects but could be part of a swap for a player at a position of need.

New York has a question at first base and designated hitter with Pete Alonso remaining unsigned. Mark Vientos could step into one of those positions, but he’s a question mark coming off a replacement level season. With Edwin Díaz heading to the Dodgers (pending a physical), upgrading the late innings is a must. The Mets signed Devin Williams to give them cover in the ninth, but their setup group — especially among right-handers — isn’t good enough right now.

The Mets already pulled off one veteran for veteran swap with the Brandon Nimmo/Marcus Semien deal. That opened a spot in left field. President of baseball operations David Stearns confirmed on Monday that the club is in the outfield market (via Britton). They’ve been speculated more as a free agent suitor for Kyle Tucker or Cody Bellinger, but they’re presumably open to adding to the outfield in trade.

All that said, it’s not as if the Mets have a lockdown rotation. It’s a talented group but one without much certainty. Nolan McLean, who has made all of eight career starts, would probably have gotten the ball in Game 1 of a playoff series had they not collapsed in September. Peterson was their most reliable starter overall, though his terrible second half was part of the reason that New York squandered a playoff berth.

The 30-year-old southpaw carried a 3.06 earned run average into the All-Star Break. He allowed 6.34 earned runs per nine in the second half, including 18 runs across 16 2/3 frames in September. A lot of that is attributable to a spike in his batting average allowed on balls in play, but Peterson’s walk rate jumped in August and his strikeouts plummeted in the season’s final month.

It was still a solid performance in aggregate. The former first-rounder turned in a 4.22 ERA across a team-leading 168 2/3 innings. He got ground-balls at a very high 54.7% clip while slightly worse than average strikeout and walk numbers. Peterson’s performance has been up-and-down over the course of his career, but he has a 4.12 ERA with decent underlying marks in more than 600 innings.

Peterson is headed into his final season of club control. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects him for a $7.6MM arbitration salary. He’d probably double that if he were to sign a one-year contract as a free agent, so there should be a few million dollars of surplus value. There’s a chance he pitches well enough to put himself in consideration for a qualifying offer next winter.

If he’s not traded, Peterson will open the season in Carlos Mendoza’s rotation. McLean and Sean Manaea are locked in as well. Clay Holmes stuck as a starter all year but has plenty of experience in the bullpen. Kodai Senga has come up in trade talks. Christian Scott, Jonah Tong and Brandon Sproat are high-upside talents who might all begin the season in Triple-A. The Mets are almost certainly going to add at least one starter, though they’re reportedly reluctant to go long term in free agency. They’ve been most frequently tied to Michael King as a potential target on the open market.

Rockies Add Gabe Ribas, Matt Buschmann To Coaching Staff

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The Rockies finalized their previously reported hiring of Alon Leichman as pitching coach. They’ve also announced the hiring of Gabe Ribas as an assistant pitching coach and Matt Buschmann as bullpen coach.

Ribas gets his first job on an MLB staff. The 45-year-old has spent the last five seasons with the Tigers as their director of pitching. Ribas had previously worked in the Dodgers farm system and at a handful of college programs. He’d also had a brief professional playing career, topping out at the Double-A level in the San Diego system in 2004.

Buschmann, 41, reached the highest level as a player — albeit very briefly. He made three appearances for the 2016 Diamondbacks. The remainder of his 11-year playing career came in the minors. Buschmann has some experience as a big league bullpen coach. He held that role with the Blue Jays between 2019-22. He has spent the past two seasons with the Cubs as an advisor in their player development department.

Former big league catcher Dustin Garneau served as Colorado’s bullpen coach in 2025. The Rox had a 5.18 earned run average out of their relievers, beating only Washington’s 5.59 figure. Rox relievers were last in strikeout rate (19.7%) despite landing in the middle of the pack in whiffs. Garneau departed to become Atlanta’s catching coach after the season. Buschmann will get to work with a few big arms (e.g. Victor Vodnik, Seth Halvorsen, Juan Mejia) at the back of the Colorado bullpen.

Royals Have Received Interest In Ryan Bergert, Stephen Kolek

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Royals president of baseball operations J.J. Picollo is on record about the club’s willingness to trade from their rotation for outfield help. Most of the focus has been on left-hander Kris Bubic, who is down to his final season of arbitration. Even if Bubic remains the likeliest candidate, K.C. has predictably gotten hits on their controllable arms as well.

Anne Rogers of MLB.com writes that the Royals have gotten calls on each of Noah Cameron, Ryan Bergert and Stephen Kolek. (The Cardinals are among the teams known to like Cameron, who is coming off a 2.99 ERA across 24 starts as a rookie.) Bergert and Kolek are less established but also have extended windows of club control. Bergert has yet to reach a full service year and is under control for six seasons; Kolek has a little over one year of service, so he’s controllable for five years.

The two right-handers landed in Kansas City over the summer in the same deadline trade. The Royals picked up both arms in a trade sending backup catcher Freddy Fermin to the Padres. It was a nice bit of business for Picollo and his staff. Bergert combined for a 3.66 earned run average with a solid 22.6% strikeout rate over his first 19 MLB appearances. He sits in the 93-94 MPH range and has an above-average slider. If he can develop a better changeup or add a cutter against left-handed hitters, he could be a mid-rotation arm.

Kolek is a former Rule 5 selection who moved back to the rotation after spending his rookie year working out of San Diego’s bullpen. He’s also in the 93-94 MPH range with his fastball and uses six pitches with regularity. Kolek’s stuff has never played for many whiffs, but he got ground-balls at a strong 51.4% clip over 19 starts this year. He tallied 112 2/3 innings of 3.51 ERA ball, and while that’s better than his peripherals suggest, he looks like a fine fourth/fifth starter.

As it stands, neither Bergert nor Kolek project as one of the top five starters on the depth chart. Cole Ragans, Michael Wacha, Seth Lugo, Bubic and Cameron would be the front five if everyone’s healthy. Bergert and Kolek have minor league options, so they could begin the season in Triple-A. Bailey Falter is out of options and probably ticketed for long relief if he sticks on the roster all offseason.

The Royals are unlikely to trade Wacha or Lugo, each of whom recently signed significant extensions. They’ll probably hear teams out on Cameron, but the asking price would be significant even if his middling 20.5% strikeout rate suggests he’s unlikely to turn in another sub-3.00 season. The only pitcher whom the team is all but firmly taking off the table is Ragans.

“We’re in a really good spot, so if the right trade comes along, and it costs us a starting pitcher, we have to look at it. It’s just not going to be Cole,” Picollo told Rogers. He subsequently left the door ever so slightly open with the caveat that another team could offer “something crazy,” but he pointed out that they’d be selling low on an ace-caliber pitcher who missed a good chunk of the season with a rotator cuff strain.

“We have to ask ourselves: Is this his max value right now? Probably not,” Picollo said. “If Cole pitches like he did in ‘24, who knows what his value is going to be? We just think right now, three years of control on a really good starting pitcher, it would have to be something crazy, something that’s like, ‘How can we pass this up?'”

The focus for Kansas City remains acquiring multiple outfielders, one apiece in trade and free agency. Rogers writes that they’re specifically after a right-handed hitter who can play center field. Harrison Bader is the top free agent center fielder, while Jake Meyers fits that bill on the trade front. The Royals have unsurprisingly been linked to both players this week. Speculatively speaking, Colorado’s Brenton Doyle is another possibility — though he’s coming off a terrible offensive season and might be too redundant to another glove-only player in Kyle Isbel. High-end talents Byron Buxton and Luis Robert Jr. are unlikely to move at all this offseason, and that’s before getting into the difficulty of lining up a trade within the division.

In free agency, Rogers lists JJ Bleday, Adolis García and Lane Thomas as players whom the front office has considered. All three are reclamation targets, and none should be an everyday option in center field. García is a full-time corner outfielder. Bleday and Thomas have played up the middle but fit better in right field, especially in a spacious outfield. García will be the most expensive of that trio but they’re all likely to take one-year deals.

While the outfield is still the priority, Picollo called adding a reliever a “secondary” goal. Bringing in another lefty to join Angel Zerpa and Daniel Lynch IV would be preferable. It’s a rough class for free agent lefty relievers, but the Royals are facing budgetary constrains and weren’t likely to spend big on that either way. Danny Coulombe, Hoby Milner, Caleb Ferguson, Caleb Thielbar and Drew Pomeranz are among the available free agents. The Cardinals’ JoJo Romero is the most obvious bullpen trade candidate of the winter. Tanner Banks, Keegan Akin and Brandon Eisert are a few other players who could be available for a modest trade return.

White Sox Win Draft Lottery

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The White Sox have won the MLB Draft Lottery and earned the first pick. They had the best odds to land the top spot at 27.73%. Chicago will be followed by the Rays and Twins.

Here’s the first round order:

  1. White Sox
  2. Rays
  3. Twins
  4. Giants
  5. Pirates
  6. Royals
  7. Orioles
  8. Athletics
  9. Braves
  10. Rockies
  11. Nationals
  12. Angels
  13. Cardinals
  14. Marlins
  15. Diamondbacks
  16. Rangers
  17. Astros
  18. Reds
  19. Guardians
  20. Red Sox
  21. Padres
  22. Tigers
  23. Cubs
  24. Mariners
  25. Brewers

This is the fourth edition of the draft lottery. The system was introduced through the most recent collective bargaining agreement to deemphasize tanking. The top six overall selections are determined by the lottery. There are limitations on picking in the lottery in multiple years. Clubs that aren’t revenue sharing recipients are barred from getting lottery picks in consecutive years, and no team can pick in the lottery three years in a row. Those parameters knocked out the Rockies, Nationals, and Angels this year.

Record still has weight when it comes to the draft order, which propelled the 60-win White Sox to the top of the odds board for the No. 1 selection. The Twins had the second-highest odds to earn the first pick at 22.18%, followed by the Pirates at 16.81%. No other team had better than a 10% chance to win the lottery.

This is the second time the team with the best odds received the top pick. The Pirates, along with two other teams, had the top odds when they won the 2022 lottery and earned the right to select Paul Skenes. The Guardians were a long shot to win in 2023, and the Nationals had the fourth-best odds in 2024.

The Giants and Royals came out as big winners, finding themselves with lottery picks after winning 80+ games last season. San Francisco went .500 and finished just two games out of a Wild Card spot. Kansas City ended up above .500 for the second straight year.

The Cardinals had a significant drop, falling from the eighth-best odds down to the 13th pick. The Marlins also fell five spots, going from the ninth-best odds to the 14th pick.

UCLA shortstop Roch Cholowsky is widely regarded as the top prospect in the 2026 draft. High school shortstop Grady Emerson and Alabama infielder Justin Lebron are candidates to be selected with early picks.

Rays To Sign Steven Matz

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December 9th: The deal is for $7.5MM per year, according to Brittany Ghiroli and Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic. Unless there are other factors such as bonuses or options, it seems to be a $15MM guarantee.

December 8th: The Rays are reportedly in agreement with free agent left-hander Steven Matz on a two-year contract. The signing is pending a physical, and salary terms for the VC Sports Group client have yet to be reported. Marc Topkin of The Tampa Bay Times first reported the sides were closing in on what was likely to be a two-year contract. The Rays’ 40-man roster is full, so they’ll need to designate someone for assignment once the contract is finalized.

Matz spent the 2025 season working out of the bullpen. The 11-year big league veteran split the season between the Cardinals and Red Sox. He combined for 76 2/3 innings of 3.05 ERA ball. Matz has a long background as a starter and worked in a swing role with St. Louis as recently as 2024. He could compete for a rotation spot or work multiple innings out of Kevin Cash’s bullpen.

The 34-year-old just wrapped up a four-year, $44MM free agent deal that he’d signed with St. Louis. That didn’t go as the Cardinals planned. Matz had a difficult time staying healthy. He missed most of the 2022 season to a shoulder impingement. A lat strain shelved him in the second half of the following season, and a lower back injury wiped out much of 2024.

Matz combined for just 197 1/3 innings over the first three seasons. He posted a 4.47 ERA with an average 21.9% strikeout percentage. The Cards only gave him a pair of spot starts this year. He still frequently worked into a second inning out of the bullpen but wasn’t tasked with as significant a workload. Matz managed to stay healthy and turned in arguably his best season since 2021.

Over his first 55 innings, the southpaw turned in a 3.44 earned run average while striking out 20.7% of batters faced. The Cards dealt him to Boston at the deadline. His already middling strikeout rate dropped another six points with the Red Sox, though he managed to outperform his peripherals with a 2.08 ERA through 21 2/3 innings. Matz ranked among the bottom 10 relievers (minimum 50 innings) with a 7.8% swinging strike rate. He succeeded with excellent control, issuing walks at a career-low 3.6% clip. He pitched particularly well as a specialist, holding left-handed batters to a .211/.242/.341 batting line in 129 plate appearances.

Tampa Bay has a pair of power lefty relievers in Garrett Cleavinger and Mason Montgomery. Cleavinger is quietly one of the best in the game. Montgomery has the stuff to be an impact arm in his own right, but his control remains a significant question. He still has a pair of minor league options and can bounce between Tampa Bay and Triple-A Durham. Matz provides a different look as a control specialist but has decent velocity, averaging 94.5 MPH on his sinker.

There’s a decent amount of uncertainty in the rotation behind Drew Rasmussen and Ryan Pepiot. The Rays have Shane McClanahan and Shane Baz lined up for spots. McClanahan will be on an innings limit after consecutive missed seasons. Baz was inconsistent and is at least a theoretical trade candidate. Ian Seymour is probably the in-house favorite to work as the fifth starter, but Tampa Bay is likely to add a veteran innings eater or two. It remains to be seen if the Rays will give Matz an opportunity to compete for a back-end rotation job.

Image courtesy of Vincent Carchietta, Imagn Images.

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