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Encarnacion Expects To Play Again This Postseason

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According to two tweets (separate links) from beat reporter Jason Beck of MLB.com, Cleveland Indians designated hitter Edwin Encarnacion’s MRI revealed no structural damage. He’s considered day-to-day with a sprained ankle. Encarnacion said he was relieved at the results, having initially feared something much worse. His goal is to get the swelling down with an expectation that he’ll play again this postseason.

Terry Francona had this to say on Encarnacion’s status when he met with reporters today (credit to Jordan Bastian of MLB.com, who tweeted an image with the full quote).

“He is, I would say, I don’t know if ’remarkably’ better is a good word, but pretty close. He’s doing much better today. I don’t think he’s going to start tomorrow, but he’s not been ruled out, either. So, we’ll take our time and allow him to continue to get treatment. But if he’s that close to being available, that’s a really good sign. So, we’re obviously not going to do anything roster-wise.”

This is certainly the best scenario the Indians could have hoped for after seeing Encarnacion leave last night’s game with a scary-looking ankle injury. That the Indians don’t plan on making a roster move to replace Encarnacion for the remainer of the series is an encouraging sign that the team truly believes he can get back on the field. The 34-year old veteran led the team with 38 home runs during the regular season and finished second only to All-Star Jose Ramirez in wOBA (.378) and wRC+ (132). His 15.5% walk rate ranked 8th in all of baseball. Any extended absence for him certainly would have been devastating to an Indians team with hopes of a second consecutive trip to the World Series.

It’s expected that All-Star Michael Brantley will take over DH duties if Encarnacion is unable to play in Game 3 against the Yankees on Sunday. Brantley went 0-for-5 with two strikeouts after replacing Encarnacion in Friday’s game.

Encarnacion came to the Indians just last offseason on a three-year, $60MM deal that includes a $5MM buyout on a $25MM team option for 2020. Full details on Encarnacion’s contract can be found here.

 

Poll: Can The Tigers Move Nicholas Castellanos?

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While the Tigers weren’t considered favorites to win the AL Central coming into 2017, they certainly didn’t appear to be candidates to own the worst record in baseball. But slow starts from Justin Verlander and Ian Kinsler, along with the continued decline of other highly-paid veterans such as Miguel Cabrera, Jordan Zimmerman, Victor Martinez and Francisco Rodriguez, led Detroit to their first losing record at the All-Star break since 2010.

By the July 31st trade deadline, the organization had already shipped catcher Alex Avila and reliever Justin Wilson to the Cubs in exchange for younger players. On the final day of August, they doubled down on their rebuild by moving the large contracts of Verlander and outfielder Justin Upton in exchange for minor leaguers.

One player who survived the fire sale, despite clearing revocable trade waivers, was former top prospect Nicholas Castellanos.

Formerly a third baseman, Castellanos was moved to right field amid concerns about his glove at the hot corner. But while his performance at third was subpar, his work in right field this year was a disaster. In a 173-inning sample, Castellanos racked up -7 defensive runs saved while checking in with a catastrophic -80.5 runs per 150 games by measure of Ultimate Zone Rating. Some of this is the result of lack of experience in the outfield. It’s easy to imagine him improving his glove work to some extent with more training and playing time, but the transition hasn’t exactly been a smooth one to this point.

The real value, of course, lies in his bat. Castellanos smacked 44 homers to go along with a .277/.325/.493 slash line across 1112 plate appearances since the start of 2016, good for a 114 wRC+ during that span. Perhaps his most impressive skill has been his ability to make hard contact; his hard-contact rate sits at an impressive 40.4% over the past two seasons, and his 89.2 MPH average exit velocity during that time ranks 67th among major league hitters who’ve made contact in at least 500 at-bats. Even with subpar defense, his offensive output made him worth close to two full wins above replacement in 2017.

As Jon Heyman of Fan Rag noted when he first broke the news, it’s surprising that Castellanos was never claimed on trade waivers. He only made $3MM this season, and can be controlled for two more years through arbitration. There’s a raise coming, but it shouldn’t be too onerous. Lucas Duda earned a $2.525MM bump after hitting 27 homers and knocking in 73 runs across 554 plate appearances in 2015. Castellanos could probably exceed that increase — he hit 26 homers in 2017, but amassed over 100 more plate appearances and accumulated 28 more RBI than did Duda– though it suggests a reasonable ballpark figure.

Even if Castellanos projects only as a 2-WAR player, he might well cost less than $6MM in 2018 and can be controlled in 2019 as well. It seems as though there is some excess value in his contract, and the Tigers aren’t likely to be contenders over the next two seasons. With all this in mind, it seems probable that the Tigers will try to shop him his offseason.

The tough part about imagining a Castellanos trade, even if you are relatively bullish on his outlook, is that teams don’t often get much in return for league-average position players with this amount of control and at this general price point. When the Nationals traded Yunel Escobar to the Angels before the 2016 season, he had one year and $7MM left on his contract, as well as a $7MM option for 2017. They received Trevor Gott in return, a fireballing reliever who was believed to have some upside but hasn’t yet panned out. The Rockies got a chance to take a shot on bouncebacks from Brandon Barnes and Jordan Lyles when they sent Dexter Fowler to the Astros; both players were thought to have some upside, but neither worked out. Most recently, the Dodgers coughed up a highly valued prospect in Jose De Leon in order to net Logan Forsythe from the Rays prior to the 2017 season, though De Leon has been hurt all year.

The market for Castellanos is somewhat cloudy. It’s unclear whether teams will view him as a third baseman or an outfield project. His 2017 performance also shows him to be far better against left-handed pitching (.939 OPS, 16% K rate) than right-handers (.769 OPS, 23% K rate). That, combined with his poor defense, may lead some teams to view him as more of a platoon hitter than a regular, which would certainly limit what type of prospects they’d be willing to give up. That being said, there are a few potential landing spots for Castellanos.

  • The Indians could be in the market for a right-handed hitting outfielder if Brandon Guyer can’t turn things around at the plate, or if they’re unable to retain veteran Austin Jackson.
  • The Blue Jays have made it clear that they plan to try and win in 2018, so they could potentially go after Castellanos if they decide to move on from struggling veteran Jose Bautista, though they could opt to give top prospect Anthony Alford a shot.
  • With Yasiel Puig falling out of favor once again, the Dodgers could conceivably become a potential suitor. Their outfield is full of question marks, and they’d be one candidate to pay Castellanos’s salary even if they only plan to use him in a platoon role.
  • If they can’t re-sign slugging phenom J.D. Martinez, the Diamondbacks could potentially look at acquiring Castellanos as a cheaper right field alternative. The D-backs’ payroll is already set to pay a combined $58.6MM to Zack Greinke, Paul Goldschmidt and Yasmany Tomas in 2018, and they’ll also be paying significant amounts to several arb-eligible players.
  • Similarly, the Angels could look to trade for Castellanos as a replacement if they don’t end up retaining Justin Upton, who seems likely to exercise the opt-out clause in his contract at the end of the 2017 season.
  • With the Braves nearing the end of their rebuilding process, they have their sights set on contending in 2018 and 2019. If they decide to move on from Rio Ruiz, Castellanos could man third base in Atlanta for the next two years.

Further complicating the market for Castellanos as a third baseman is the glut of similar right-handed hitting free agents at that position. Righties Yunel Escobar, Todd Frazier and Eduardo Nunez all offer similar production from the position, with Mike Moustakas offering a premium option who bats from the left side of the plate. The free agent market for outfielders is just as competitive. J.D. Martinez is a clear superior option as far as righty-hitting corner outfielders, though not all teams will be able to afford the type of contract he’s likely to command. Lorenzo Cain is a far better player, though he’ll obviously be hired as a center fielder and therefore will compete in a different market. Austin Jackson, Melky Cabrera, Colby Rasmus, Carlos Gomez and Carlos Gonzalez all offer production at (or close to) Castellanos’ level, although each has his own set of question marks. Jay Bruce offers similar production for teams interested in a lefty slugger.

So it seems that the biggest roadblock in trying to move Castellanos is that players like him aren’t in short supply. If the free agent dominoes fall too quickly, the Tigers might find themselves unable to get even a modest prospect return, and could opt to simply wait until the trade deadline to see if his market improves. In any case, it’s hard to imagine Detroit getting a top 100 prospect in return for their young slugger unless they opt to package him with another asset.

The Tigers are in a really tough position with Castellanos. They have no great need for his services during their rebuilding years, and could benefit by shedding his $14MM price tag through 2019. Unfortunately, the plethora of alternatives on the free agent market means that the Tigers have little to no leverage in negotiations with other teams. He’s got too much value to simply unload for a garden-variety minor leaguer, but if Detroit can’t trade him this offseason or at the 2018 trade deadline, they could end up in the same situation next year at this time. At that point, his trade value will be even lower than it is now. Whether or not Castellanos will be in a Tigers uniform come April is anybody’s guess.

What do you think will happen? Will the Tigers be able to trade Nicholas Castellanos?

(Poll link for app users)

Central Notes: Royals, Reds, Jose Ramirez

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Via Rustin Dodd of the Kansas City Star, Royals GM Dayton Moore details the elements of an uncertain offseason for Kansas City. The organization will go “one of two ways”, according to Moore. The first option is obvious; the club could choose to “gut the team” in a complete teardown, saving money and going for high draft picks. But Moore does detail an ambitious alternative: trying to retain their free agent stars. “Everybody assumes that we are just going to just get blown away in free agency, and we don’t have a chance,” he tells Dodd. “They may be right, but I think everybody felt that way about Alex Gordon at the time. That fell back to us. You just never really know.” Indeed, there are rumblings that one of the Royals’ biggest offseason priorities will be to retain star first baseman Eric Hosmer. But with the 2017 Royals’ payroll setting a franchise record for the fifth consecutive year while delivering a losing season, Moore does make one blunt concession. “It’s very clear to us that we need to get younger and more athletic. We’re going to continue with that mindset as we go forward into the future.”

More from baseball’s central divisions…

  • Ken Rosenthal details the elements of a bittersweet postseason for Reds scouting director Chris Buckley in a piece for The Athletic (subscription required and recommended). Seven players originally signed by the Reds are currently playing October baseball with the New York Yankees and Los Angeles Dodgers, including infielders Didi Gregorius and Justin Turner. While the presence of former Cincinnati signees gives Buckley a clear rooting interest, it also evokes painful memories of the two scouts he lost to cancer in recent years.
  • David Waldstein of the New York Times tells the fascinating story of how superstar infielder Jose Ramirez first came to the Indians. According to Waldstein, Ramon Pena (then an international scout for Cleveland) attended a three-game showcase in the Dominican Republic largely to gawk at invitees Jorge Alfaro and Martin Peguero, but noticed Ramirez playing with surprising confidence and determination. During a subsequent telephone call with a local trainer who represented the players, Pena was focused on trying to sign Alfaro. When he learned that Alfaro was asking for $1.5 million, the conversation shifted to Ramirez. Pena eventually talked the trainer down from $300,000 all the way to $50,000. After an agreement was in place, however, Pena was unable to gather the papers required for Ramirez to play in the United States, so he sat out the 2010 season and instead spent the year working out at the Indians’ facility in Boca Chica. The team managed to get Ramirez’ papers in order in time for the 2011 season, and Ramirez sped through the minor leagues, making his MLB debut just two years later.

Marlins Outright Four Players

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The Marlins have outrighted righties Javy Guerra and Vance Worley off their 40-man roster, along with first baseman Tyler Moore and outfielder Destin Hood, Clark Spencer of the Miami Herald reports on Twitter. The Marlin’s 40-man roster now consists of 36 players.

Guerra, 31, had been a reliever for the Dodgers, White Sox and Angels before making it to Miami. He pitched in 16 games for the Marlins across the final two months of the season, compiling a respectable 3.00 ERA. However, he only managed to strike out 12 batters in 21 innings, and his larger body of work doesn’t point to significant upside.

Worley appeared in 24 games with the Marlins this past season, including 12 as a starter. The 30 year-old veteran pitched to an ugly 6.91 ERA in 71 2/3 innings, though some of it can be attributed to luck factors such as a high .378 BABIP and a low 64.5% strand rate. Worley’s greatest success during his career came with the Phillies and the Pirates, including an outstanding 2011 campaign in Philadelphia when he pitched to a 3.01 ERA and 8.13 K/9.

Moore, 30, was taken in the 16th round of the 2008 draft, and has since accrued 852 major league plate appearances with the Nationals and Marlins. He’s been 1.5 wins below replacement level for his career, with a lifetime .228/.278/.401 batting line and below-average defense at first base.

Hood, a former second-round pick of the Nationals, did not play in the majors this season. The 27 year-old outfielder has 25 career plate appearances at the MLB level, all coming last season with the Marlins. He struck out in 11 of those appearances while collecting six hits, including one home run. Hood chased 36.7% of pitches outside the strike zone, and only made contact on 38.9% of them, which explains a large portion of his offensive struggles.

 

AL Notes: Red Sox, Royals, Buxton, Chris Davis

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In a strongly worded piece, Evan Drellich of NBC Sports hammers the Red Sox ownership for being too strict regarding the luxury tax threshold. According to Drellich, many in Boston believed that Edwin Encarnacion would be the replacement for franchise icon David Ortiz. Instead, the Indians got him on a contract that many consider to be a bargain. Meanwhile the Red Sox finished 27th of 30 major league teams in total home runs, and 20th in wOBA. That hasn’t changed in the postseason, as they’ve been outscored by the surging Astros 16-4 so far in the ALDS. Now the Red Sox are in an 0-2 hole heading back to Boston for Game 3, and their offense faces a daunting task in trying to defeat Houston in three straight games. “The Sox’ greatest stumble this year might have been over a pile of cash,” Drellich writes. The article provides a harsh criticism of the Red Sox ownership and is certainly an interesting read.

More from around the AL…

  • The Baseball America Twitter account took us back in time this morning by tweeting out an article J.J. Cooper wrote about the Royals back in 2011. With Eric Hosmer, Lorenzo Cain and Mike Moustakas all set to hit free agency (among others), it’s fair to wonder whether Kansas City’s window of contention has closed, so it’s certainly fun to take a nostalgic look back at BA’s assessment of a farm system that was stacked with so much talent. The Royals, of course, ended up going to the World Series in both 2014 and 2015, coming away with a title in the latter year.
  • Twins center fielder Byron Buxton left the Wild Card game early with an injury that was initially described as “upper back tightness”. But according to Mike Berardino of the Pioneer Press, Buxton was trying to play through a cracked rib. Berardino’s source tells him that the injury is unlikely to affect Buxton’s offseason training program. Buxton hit .300/.347/.546 with 11 homers and 13 stolen bases in the second half, and is under team control through the 2021 season.
  • The seven-year, $161MM contract given to Chris Davis has been disappointing for Orioles fans so far, Rich Dubroff of pressboxonline.com writes. Indeed, Davis missed significant time in 2017 with an oblique strain and was barely above replacement level when he was in the lineup. Dubroff points out some absolutely horrific stats, such as Davis’ 42.8% strikeout rate and that he went 1-for-53 after reaching an 0-2 count, striking out in 42 of those at-bats. A resurgent Davis would certainly be helpful to a Baltimore club that plans to contend next year, so the O’s will surely be hoping he can return something closer to his 2013 and 2015 production.

Playoff Team Notes: Encarnacion, Astros, Nationals

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Indians cleanup hitter Edwin Encarnacion left last night’s game with an ankle injury. While trying to get back to second base in order to avoid being doubled up, his ankle hit the bag and appeared to bend to a gruesome extent. The right-handed DH could not put weight on his right leg as he was helped off the field. While there’s no word yet on the severity of the injury, Encarnacion appeared to be in a lot of pain. The Indians added the slugger on a three-year, $60 million contract this past offseason, and he rewarded them with a .258/.377/.504 season in which he smacked 38 homers and drove in 107 runs. He’s a tremendous right-handed power hitter amidst a left-heavy lineup, and his absence for any length of time would be a huge blow to a Cleveland team that is searching for its first title since 1948.

More from some teams still playing baseball in October…

  • Dallas Keuchel of the Astros had always felt as though the team was missing a strong veteran presence in the clubhouse. “Guys were just waiting for the Astros to get a lot better,” he tells Tim Britton of the Providence Journal. After adding Brian McCann, Josh Reddick and Carlos Beltran, Houston soared to a 101-61 record and currently have a 2-0 lead on Boston in the ALDS. A.J. Hinch also appreciates the value of having these veteran players. “They’ve taken everybody under their wing, they’ve developed a culture in the clubhouse and a chemistry that’s all inclusive, which I can appreciate.” Most notably, the piece reveals that Carlos Beltran has become a strong mentor for fellow Puerto Rican Carlos Correa.
  • Nationals assistant hitting coach Jacque Jones has been suspended indefinitely, Chelsea Janes of the Washington Post reports. According to a civil suit filed on September 28th, Jones allegedly distributed nude photos of an ex, causing her to suffer “general and special damages”. Dusty Baker described the news as “kind of a downer” before last night’s game, describing Jones as a big part of the team. In Jones’ absence, minor league hitting coordinator Troy Gingrich will serve as the assistant to hitting coach Rick Schu.

How They Were Acquired: Los Angeles Dodgers NLDS Roster

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The Dodgers have now taken the NL West for five consecutive seasons. But the current roster wasn’t exactly built with just that in mind. The big-city organization hasn’t won the World Series since way back in 1988.

President of baseball operations Andrew Friedman and GM Farhan Zaidi were looking to construct a powerhouse. At mid-season, they struck a deal to land ace Yu Darvish to an already-loaded rotation. Despite a late-season lull, the team racked up 104 wins.

Here’s how it all came together:

[Related: Los Angeles Dodgers Depth Chart and Payroll Outlook]

Los Angeles will lose some players to the open market at the end of the year, but all were signed to one-year pacts last winter or added over the summer via trade. That means that the core of the club will remain under control — in many cases well into the future. No matter how things turn out this fall, though, there will likely be quite a few interesting opportunities for the always-creative Dodgers front office to pursue over the offseason to come.

NL East Notes: Braves, Harvey, Mets, Jones

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The league’s investigation into the Braves for international signing violations is still ongoing, Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports tweets. Indeed, MLB is sending out investigators to chat with club officials this week. It’s doubtful that any results will be released while the postseason is ongoing, but all eyes will be on commissioner Rob Manfred as things progress. The investigation has already resulted in the resignations of Atlanta GM John Coppolella and special assistant Gordon Blakely; at this point, it’s far from clear just where it could go and what kind of fallout might occur.

Here’s more from the NL East:

  • Agent Scott Boras discussed the offseason challenges facing his client, Mets righty Matt Harvey, with Joel Sherman of the New York Post. Harvey will work through “a substantial throwing program” in which he’ll work on restoring his command and release point, says Boras. While the veteran player rep didn’t sugarcoat the situation, he did note that Harvey has at least already regained much of his velocity and will have a better opportunity to iron things out this offseason.
  • The Mets have hired a new Triple-A manager. Per Jon Heyman of Fan Rag, via Twitter, the club has tapped Tony DeFrancesco to run the dugout at Las Vegas. He had held the same job at the Astros’ top affiliate for the last seven seasons, but a change was made at the end of the year. Of course, the Mets are still weighing a more significant managerial hire at the MLB level.
  • In some oddly timed news, the Nationals announced just before tonight’s game that it has suspended assistant hitting coach Jacque Jones (as first reported, on Twitter, by Chelsea Janes of the Washington Post). Details are hazy, but as Janes writes, Jones and the team were named in a lawsuit in which an unidentified woman alleges that Jones wrongly distributed sexually explicit photographs of her. Just why the organization was included in the claim is not clear.

How They Were Acquired: Washington Nationals NLDS Roster

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The Nationals are back in the postseason after their fourth NL East crown in the past six years. By now, the search for redemption is a familiar tale for this organization, which has failed to advance past the NLDS in each of the past three years. There has been a fair bit of roster turnover through the years, as president of baseball operations/GM Mike Rizzo has successfully transitioned from prior core players to new ones through a variety of methods.

Here’s how the current roster came together…

[Related: Washington Nationals Depth Chart and Payroll Outlook]

While the Nationals’ window has long been a topic of conversation, it figures to stay open a while longer. The club will lose a few contributors this winter — Werth, Perez, and deadline additions Kendrick and Kintzler are probably the most significant — but none are major drivers of the organization’s success. While there’s only one more year of control over Harper past the present season, when he’ll be joined by Murphy and Gonzalez in free agency, several other top-quality performers are still around beyond 2018 … and the team has hopes that Robles will soon become the team’s next star.

NL West Notes: Prieto, Holland, Seager, Giants

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There won’t be any major penalties arising out of the investigation into Diamondbacks coach Ariel Prieto, who was spotted with an Apple Watch during the Wild Card game. The league announced that it has “forensically examined” the watch as well as Prieto’s cell phone, in addition to conducting an interview with the veteran baseball man. With no indication that he improperly used those devices, the league decided upon only undisclosed fines for both Prieto and the team. The funds will be donated to Puerto Rico for hurricane relief efforts.

Here’s more from the NL West:

  • Greg Holland says he hasn’t yet thought at all about whether he’ll return to the Rockies, as Nick Groke of the Denver Post writes. He is seemingly still unhappy with his appearance in the team’s Wild Card loss, which represented a disappointing end to an otherwise quality bounceback season. Holland didn’t quite max out his contract incentives — he needed to finish two more games to earn an extra $2MM — but did tack another $9MM on top of his $6MM base. His mutual option became a $15MM player option along the way, but the expectation remains that Holland will choose instead to enter the open market. While he wasn’t exactly back to his prior form as one of the game’s best relievers, Holland turned in 57 1/3 innings of 3.61 ERA ball with 11.0 K/9 and 4.1 BB/9 while pacing the NL with 41 saves. He’ll soon turn 32 and hasn’t regained his prior fastball velocity since his return from Tommy John surgery, but Holland did sustain an outstanding 15.2% swinging-strike rate on the year and ought to draw quite a lot of interest on the open market.
  • As the Dodgers prepare for a tough NLDS challenge, Andy McCullough of the Los Angeles Times looks at the difficult balancing act the team has faced with star shortstop Corey Seager. The club has sought to ensure he doesn’t overwork himself, particularly (but not exclusively) since an elbow issue cropped up. But the youngster says he “like[s] to work” and has not always seen eye to eye with the organization on the matter. You’ll want to read the entire story, which conveys and explores the tension surrounding the issue as the Dodgers look to convert their excellent regular season into postseason glory.
  • Giants president of baseball operations Brian Sabean discusses some of the organization’s young players with Alex Pavlovic of NBC Sports Bay Area on his podcast. It’s an interesting chat for fans that wish to understand how the top brass sees the farm and player development. The veteran executive also touches upon the team’s increasing incorporation of sabermetrics.
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