Twins star Brian Dozier entered 2018 off an extraordinary three-year stretch of power hitting for a second baseman. Dozier combined for 104 home runs during that 2,100-plate appearance span, including 42 in 2016 – an American League record at his position. Although Dozier became a household name because of his ability to hit the ball over the fence, he has been a well-rounded player since his first full season (2013), evidenced by the 22.2 rWAR/21.7 fWAR he racked up between then and this year.
Dozier’s recent excellence has come under the team-friendly extension he signed as a less established player heading into the 2015 season. That contract – a four-year, $20MM pact – has been one of the biggest bargains in baseball lately, but unfortunately for the Twins, it’s on the cusp of expiring. Dozier is now two-plus months into the last year of his deal, and indications are that he’ll test the open market after the season. The 31-year-old made it clear over the winter that he was interested in an extension – “I’ve said I wanted to stay here since forever, but I’ve really vocalized it the last couple years,” he declared – but the Twins didn’t reciprocate and talks on a new deal died.
Because he hasn’t been able to secure another long-term accord from the Twins, Dozier is now trying to prove to them and other teams that he’ll be worth a significant investment in the coming months. But unfortunately for Dozier, his platform year hasn’t begun in ideal fashion. With a .241/.313/.420 batting line in 249 PAs, Dozier’s offensive production has been 3 percent below average, per FanGraphs’ wRC+ metric. He was an above-average hitter in each of the previous four seasons, including when he recorded his two highest wRC+ figures – 131 and 125 – in 2016 and ’17.
Encouragingly, Dozier’s walking at a 9.2 percent clip (in line with a career 9.4 mean) and striking out less than he did in previous years. He has fanned 18.1 percent of the time, which is both better than the ever-increasing league rate (22.4 percent) and his career mark (19.4). Dozier’s also chasing less than ever, having registered a 22.6 percent out-of-zone swing rate that easily outdoes his lifetime figure (27.8).
Dozier’s offensive game clearly isn’t devoid of positive signs, then, though there has been cause for alarm when he has put the bat on the ball. He has only hit eight homers thus far, to go with an ISO (.179) that has declined substantially from the .238 mark he combined for from 2015-17. Further, Dozier’s line drive percentage is at a personal-worst 14.4 – compared to 19.9 during his career – and after averaging a 94.4 mph exit velocity on liners last season, Dozier’s at 91.4 this year. Thanks in part to that, not to mention an increase in grounders, Dozier’s percentage of balls hit at least 95 mph has fallen from 34.5 percent in 2017 to 28.1 this season. Dozier currently ranks toward the bottom of the majors in those Statcast metrics (via Baseball Savant), making it no surprise that he has only registered a .303 xwOBA and a .267 batting average on balls in play to this point. While Dozier’s BABIP is close to his career total (.276), it’s a far cry from the personal high (.300) he put up in that department last year.
When Dozier’s contact has eluded defenders this year, he hasn’t been nearly the threat on the base paths that he was in previous seasons. Dozier collected anywhere from 12 to 21 steals in each year from 2013-17, and he entered the campaign with a career success rate near 76 percent. But Dozier has only converted on two of four attempts in 2018, perhaps in part because he’s not as fleet of foot as he had been. Dozier’s average sprint speed is 26.8 feet per second, per Statcast, placing him just below the league mean (27) and down from the slightly above-average marks he managed in each of the three prior seasons.
Dozier’s production at the plate and on the bases does warrant some concern, but his defensive numbers look normal so far. Dozier had essentially been a scratch defender from 2012-17, according to both Defensive Runs Saved (three) and Ultimate Zone Rating (minus-0.3), and that has also been the case in 2018 (two DRS, minus-1.5 UZR). And Dozier’s impressive durability has once again been on display, as he hasn’t missed any of the Twins’ 54 games after amassing between 147 and 157 appearances in each of the previous five seasons.
Dozier’s outstanding track record of availability will undoubtedly appeal to teams as he seeks another payday in the coming months, though he won’t max out his earning potential at his current offensive pace. There’s time for Dozier to turn it around at the plate, of course, and it’s especially important for him to do so given the competition he could face on the market. As things stand, there will be no shortage of veteran second basemen available in free agency, including DJ LeMahieu, Daniel Murphy and Asdrubal Cabrera. Thanks to that fact – not to mention Dozier’s age, the unkind way free agency has been trending for 30-somethings and the potential of a qualifying offer hanging over his head – his first trip to the market may come at an inopportune time.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Has the best hair in the show…
Don’t sleep on that smile, either!
I think Dozier is LAD bound, but unless his walk year numbers improve that contract will be fairly short (maybe 2 years + option) at an AAV of around $10M. There will be too many 2B with similar skillsets to warrant much more than that especially when you consider CLE will undoubtedly be shopping Kipnis again this winter.
10 million/year for Dozier.? Uhh, no. He’s getting 25M/year easy
How so?
$25-mil easy
– Sincerely, Nobody
He would be lucky to get $12M/year if he finished off the year at his current pace.
He hit worse in his first 54 games in 2016 and is hitting pretty close to his 2017 numbers through the first 54.
Both those years he put up a .850 OPS or better by the end of the year (125 wRC+ or better).
He’s streaky. No guarantee he keeps the pattern, but this is what he does. At the end of the year his stats usually look good.
He seems to be starting a hot streak again because he’s hit well the last two weeks.
Best bet for the Dodgers would be to convert either or both of Muncy and Vallera to second. Gives the team even better chances with double switches in the late innings.
1st – Beli/Muncy
2nd – Muncy/Beli/Kiki
SS – Seager/Taylor
3rd – Turner/Vallera
RF – Puig/Toles
CF – Taylor/Beli/Toles/Kike
LF – Kemp/Toles/Pederson
C – Grandal/Barnes
It may be Seager depending on how he responds after the injury.
Beli at 2B? You do know that players who throw with their left hand can’t play 2B, right? Reason being is that they can’t turn the DP
2018 offers a huge market where teams will spend big money on bigger names. Best he takes the QO and chance the 2019 market.
Don’t know if he’ll get one at this rate
He plays good defense with his hitting. He will get a good offer but not a offer that the twins can’t match. I see a 4 year deal for 70 million area. QO will be turned down.
Give he will be entering the age of 32 and how last years markets went…id only provide an offer of 3-41mil.
Well good thing you arent a GM then.
arc that 4 for 70 is about right.
He would get more if he played a different position and a little younger. For him to bad its 2B because most teams have a 2B already.
The FA market is getting to be less and less about scarcity in a given offseason for a number of reasons. Waiting a season to sign a deal is not going to get him more money.
I think Dozier is going to be hurt by the supply and demand of second basemen. Of the 4 teams (Twins, Rockies, Mets, Nationals) losing their starters to FA and adding the Dodgers to the mix, 2 of them are probably going to replace the position internally. The Rockies have Brendan Rodgers and the Twins have Nick Gordon. The Mets are probably on the phone right now with Dan Uggla or some other 2B that was good in 2010. The Nats are a wild card depending on the retention of Harper. If he signs elsewhere, they might look at a full rebuild. If he re-signs, they might not have the payroll to spend a lot on a 2B. The Dodgers are a possibility, but like I said, the supply outweighs the demand.
The Nats have Robles to take Harpers spot, and Soto to cover second.
“ . . . and Soto to cover second.”
Psst, tgcf. Unless that was snark, Soto is a LH throwing outfielder. He would likely take Harper’s spot should the latter sign elsewhere. Robles will take M A Taylor’s spot in CF, just as soon as the former returns from the DL and gets into game shape.
If you wanted to bust some chops above I’d go after the “If he (Harper) signs elsewhere, they might look at a full rebuild” part. There is little chance that the Nats with Scherzer, Strasburg, Rendon, Turner, Eaton, Soto, Robles, etc will look at a complete rebuild.
Had a Brain freeze, meant to say Difo can take 2B. Robles and Soto can more then help cover the outfield spots. Yea that total rebuild is out of left field.
It’s fine if the Nats don’t rebuild. But they are probably looking at being the 3rd best team in the division for a while. At least until the Mets get healthy or the Marlins get their next two year run. Harper will be the first domino to fall in a rebuild. I’m not saying it will happen immediately, but it will happen. It’ll probably be like the KC rebuild. Washington will go from division winner to wild card winner to .500 team to very bad team over the next four years and then the rebuild will fully commence.
Dozier is about to experience the new free agency in MLB. A few of the big name, still in their prime players will have bidding for them and get long term contracts. Guy like Dozier will no longer be the target of a big bidding war like in years past. Showing signs of decline and heading into your 30’s will garner you short term and much lower contracts than players used to expect and get. Teams aren’t stupid enough to do that any more. What will change is top young players will not be as anxious to sign long term team friendly deals as much because the 1st time FA after the arb years are going to be the big contract guys now.
Ditto…..
Second that
He’s not so good hitting in clutch situations. Lots of solo home runs leading off games. While early runs are nice, he’s not so great late in games when a run or two can tie the game, take the lead or add an insurance run. He had his 42 home run season during his team’s 103 losses, and most were in August and September that year.
His fielding is a tad overrated. He makes a lot of spectacular-looking plays, but a quicker 2nd baseman makes those plays without the fanfare and self-congratulatory smile.
If he isn’t traded at the deadline, I doubt there will be a QO.
Talk about conjecture…..wow.
Really ! WoW! Plus there is no such thing as Clutch hitting. It’s been proven to be a fallacy!
Batting leadoff tends to lead to… You guessed it! Lead off jimmyjacks!
Can’t blame Dozier for the Twins sucking that year. What would you rather he do, not perform for a whole season like his teammates?
If I’m dozier, I’m hoping for an extension at this point….
If the Twins offer him an extension (which I don’t believe they’ll do no matter what he does this year) it would be a lowball offer which he’d decline. I don’t see them extending the QO either because there is a chance he might accept. Twins will probably shop him in July just to see what kind of offers they get. They will want to avoid just letting him walk after 2018 with no return whatsoever.
Talk to me 2nd half of the season, when this guy heats up, and is on *fire*. He heats up in the 2nd half every year.
I think Minny re-signs him. (Even tho Minny fans think it’s written in stone Dozier leaves FA)
*Minnie…from the vaudeville days
If Minnesota keeps playing several games below .500, they won’t have to worry about issuing a qualified offer thus getting a return via a draft pick for that they’ll get prospects back at the deadline instead…