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Minor MLB Transactions: 9/6/17

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We’ll use this post to track the day’s minor moves:

  • The Mariners have outrighted utilityman Shawn O’Malley to Triple-A, per a club announcement. He had previously been designated for assignment. As Bob Dutton of the Tacoma News Tribune notes on Twitter, that’s more or less a formality at this stage of the year, as O’Malley will be able to enter the open market at year’s end as a minor-league free agent. Of course, he’ll still be on hand if a need arises over the next three weeks. O’Malley, 29, has not appeared in the majors this year but did see 89 games of action for Seattle in 2016. The former fifth-round draft pick hit just .229/.299/.319 in his 232 plate appearances last year, though, and then missed a big chunk of time earlier this season owing to an appendectomy and shoulder problems. O’Malley has hit just .205/.250/282 in twenty games of action at Triple-A in the current campaign.
  • Also outrighted, per the Padres, was righty Kevin Quackenbush. He had entered the season on track to qualify for arbitration at season’s end, but only appeared in twenty contests while struggling to a 7.86 ERA with 7.9 K/9 and 5.5 BB/9. Quackenbush is still just 28 and has had far more productive stints in the majors in the recent past. He also managed a 3.90 ERA in his 27 2/3 Triple-A frames. While his outlook with the Pads remains cloudy, then, he could receive a shot at earning a bullpen spot — in San Diego or elsewhere — in Spring Training next year.

Billy Hamilton Diagnosed With Fractured Thumb

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The Reds announced that center fielder Billy Hamilton sustained a fractured left thumb in today’s game and is expected to be placed on the 10-day disabled list. That puts the remainder of the season in jeopardy for Hamilton, though manager Bryan Price told reporters that the injury does not necessarily end the fleet-footed Hamilton’s season (Twitter link via Adam Baum of the Cincinnati Enquirer).

Hamilton initially sustained the injury on a bunt attempt in the first inning. He exited the game and headed straight for an MRI, as MLB.com’s Mark Sheldon tweeted at the time.

[Related: Cincinnati Reds depth chart]

The 26-year-old Hamilton has seen his offensive production take a step backwards after hitting .293 with a .369 on-base percentage in the second half of the 2016 season. Thus far in 2017, he’s matched his career-high of 58 stolen bases but has done so with a sub-par .248/.299/.333 batting line through an even 600 plate appearances. That said, Hamilton’s baserunning continues to be regarded as the best in the Majors, per Fangraphs’ BsR metric, and his glovework in center field remains considerably above average as well.

With Hamilton on the shelf, the Reds can turn to Jose Peraza and Phillip Ervin in center field. Cincinnati has also played Scott Schebler in center field on occasion in 2017, so they could slide him over for a day or two as a means of getting prospect Jesse Winker some additional at-bats once Winker returns from the disabled list. Sheldon wrote earlier today that Winker was nearing a return from a strained hip flexor.

Looking ahead, Hamilton remains the odds-on favorite to hold down regular duties in center field next year yet again. Despite his lagging bat, his baserunning and glovework make him a useful player. Plus, the lack of power has held down his arbitration earnings. Hamilton took down just $2.625MM this year and can be controlled for two more seasons to come. That said, it wouldn’t be all that surprising if Cincinnati began considering alternatives as soon as this winter.

Cardinals Acquire Juan Nicasio

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The Phillies announced that they have traded right-hander Juan Nicasio to the Cardinals in exchange for minor league infielder Eliezer Alvarez. Philadelphia had recently claimed Nicasio off outright waivers from the Pirates. Nicasio will give the Cardinals’ bullpen a boost, though since he’s been acquired after Aug. 31, he won’t be eligible for the postseason roster if St. Louis qualifies. Nicasio is a free agent after the season.

Juan Nicasio | Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY SportsNicasio’s time with the Phillies will last all of a week, bringing to a close one of the more puzzling sequences in recent August trade history. The Pirates were unable to pass Nicasio through revocable trade waivers last month, ultimately pulling him back off waivers and placing him on outright waivers and instead losing him to the Phillies, who had top waiver priority, for nothing other than salary relief that amounted to roughly $600K.

The move was confusing enough that Pittsburgh GM Neal Huntington felt the need to explain the team’s rationale to the media. Per Huntington, Nicasio was claimed by a “playoff-caliber” team on trade waivers — it’s not clear if that Cardinals were that club, though it’d make sense — and the Bucs opted to place him on outright waivers in hopes of getting him to an AL contender rather than helping a “direct competitor.” (Trade waivers are league-specific, whereas outright waiver priority ignores league and is solely determined in reverse order of MLB standings.)

Nicasio will ultimately end up with a direct competitor of the Pirates anyhow, though he won’t be able to pitch in the postseason. Moreover, the Phillies will make out extremely well in this deal, as Alvarez entered the season ranked 10th on Baseball America’s list of the Cardinals’ top 30 prospects. He currently ranks 19th among St. Louis farmhands in the eyes of Jim Callis and Jonathan Mayo of MLB.com. In essence, the Phillies were able to claim a Cardinals prospect off waivers, which ultimately cost them about $138K in terms of salary (the pro-rated portion of Nicasio’s week-long tenure with the team).

For the Cardinals, Nicasio immediately becomes one of their best relievers. Through 61 1/3 innings, Nicasio has averaged 8.95 K/9, 2.64 BB/9 and a 46.9 percent ground-ball rate en route to an excellent 2.79 ERA. The 31-year-old has averaged a career-best 95.4 mph on his heater in 2017 and is sporting a 10.7 percent swinging-strike rate that would rank third among current St. Louis relievers (not including the injured Trevor Rosenthal, who led the team’s bullpen in that regard).

Alvarez, 23 next month, has spent the season with St. Louis’ Double-A affiliate, hitting .247/.321/.382 with four homers and eight steals (in 11 tries). Those numbers don’t immediately stand out, though it’s worth noting that Alvarez skipped Class-A Advanced entirely and was considerably younger than the league average in Double-A.

Callis and Mayo note in their free scouting report that Alvarez has a line-drive approach with a knack for making hard contact and could eventually grow into more power. He’s an above-average runner and could profile as a regular at second base down the line if everything breaks right for him. Alvarez was added to the Cardinals’ 40-man roster last winter to protect him from the Rule 5 Draft, so he’ll go onto the Phillies’ 40-man roster and fill the spot that was vacated by trading Nicasio.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Will Venable Retires, Joins Cubs’ Front Office

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The Cubs announced on Wednesday that former Major League outfielder Will Venable has been hired as a special assistant to president of baseball operations Theo Epstein and general manager Jed Hoyer. The team’s press release also notes that Venable has now formally retired from his playing career.

According to the release, Venable will “contribute to all elements” of the Cubs’ baseball operations department. More specifically, his duties will include visiting the team’s minor league affiliates to work with players both on and off the field as well as assisting in the evaluation of amateur talent leading up to the MLB draft in June.

“I’m extremely grateful Jed and Theo have given me the opportunity to learn from them and all of the great people in the Cubs organization,” said Venable in an accompanying statement. “As my playing days have come to an end, I look forward to exploring new ways to have a positive impact on the game. I am excited to be part of the Cubs family and their amazing tradition.”

Venable, 35 next month, will see his career officially come to a close after parts of nine seasons in the Major Leagues. Through 3,146 plate appearances, the Princeton University grad batted .249/.315/.404 with 81 homers, 118 doubles, 39 triples and 135 steals. Venable saw time at all three outfield spots in the Majors and drew positive grades at each in terms of Defensive Runs Saved and Ultimate Zone Rating. His best year came in 2013, when he hit .268/.312/.484 (126 OPS+) with 22 homers and 22 steals for the Padres.

In the end, Baseball-Reference pegged his career at 12.9 wins above replacement, while Fangraphs was slightly more bullish at 13.7. Between his contractual salaries and his signing bonus out of the draft as a seventh-rounder, Venable earned more than $14MM as a player. We at MLBTR wish the best of luck to Will in his new career path.

Ian Kinsler’s 2018 Option Has Vesting Clause

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Ian Kinsler’s five-year, $75MM contract has been widely reported to have a $10MM club option with a hefty $5MM buyout attached to it, but there’s a slight detail that Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic recently brought to light (via Twitter). Kinsler’s 2018 option actually has a vesting clause that will automatically trigger that option if and when Kinsler reaches 600 plate appearances this season.

MLBTR has learned that the option would also vest at $11MM — a slight uptick from the $10MM base salary he’d have if he falls shy of 600 plate appearances. Winning his second straight Gold Glove Award can also boost Kinsler’s 2018 base salary by $1MM. That’s of particular note given that Kinsler currently leads qualified Major League second basemen both in Defensive Runs Saved (+8) and UZR/150 (+9.3).

It’s a minor distinction, to be sure. Kinsler’s bat has taken a step back this season(.235/.314/.382), but his superlative glovework and quality baserunning have made him worth about two wins above replacement per both Fangraphs and Baseball-Reference. Whether the bottom-line price tag is $10MM, $11MM or $12MM, it seems exceedingly likely that Kinsler’s option will either vest or be exercised by the Tigers. The $5MM buyout Kinsler is owed, after all, essentially reduces the Tigers’ decision on him to a one-year deal worth $5-7MM — an even easier call to make.

Having already traded Justin Verlander, Justin Upton, Justin Wilson, J.D. Martinez, Cameron Maybin and Alex Avila in the past calendar year, the Tigers are all but certain to shop Kinsler around this offseason. While the potential for an additional million or two being tacked onto his salary may have a modest impact on trade talks, it’s hardly going to be a sticking point in negotiations with interested parties.

Kinsler currently has 522 plate appearances on the season, leaving him 78 plate appearances shy of that $11MM sum automatically kicking in for the 2018 campaign.

Mets Notes: Payroll, Catchers, Rotation, Conforto, Wright, Montero

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Mets general manager Sandy Alderson met with the media yesterday to discuss a host of topics, ranging from next year’s payroll and roster to the health of several key players. Some highlights from his comments and a bit more on the Mets to kick off Wednesday morning…

  • Via Mike Puma of the New York Post, Alderson didn’t commit to matching 2017’s Opening Day payroll of roughly $155MM. As Puma notes, the Mets have will see more than $60MM come off the books with Curtis Granderson, Jay Bruce, Lucas Duda, Neil Walker, Addison Reed and Fernando Salas no longer on the roster (plus the potential buyout of Asdrubal Cabrera’s option). Per Alderson, though, the Mets’ payroll was “beyond” expected levels. “So I’m certainly not sitting here and saying, ‘OK, [the payroll] is going to be at least as high this year as it was last year,’” the GM stated, later adding that an “undetermined” portion of the money coming off the books will be reinvested into the on-field product.
  • One potential area of need, on paper anyhow, looks to be behind the plate. However, Alderson strongly suggested that Travis d’Arnaud and Kevin Plawecki are still in good standing with the organization and could be the primary catching tandem in 2018 (link via Peter Botte of the New York Daily News). Alderson indicated that d’Arnaud has improved in terms of some of the “esoteric metrics” that the Mets value, though he didn’t specify in what regards. The 28-year-old d’Arnaud has had a poor season at the plate (.232/.281/.397) and has thrown out just 17 percent of attempted base thieves while turning in slightly above-average framing marks. Perhaps more interesting, though, were his comments on Plawecki. “…I think Plawecki did himself a tremendous service going to (Triple-A) Las Vegas and applying himself and recognizing that he didn’t have to simply accept a backup role going forward as a major-league catcher and that he could work toward the possibility of being an everyday guy.” Plawecki slashed .328/.375/.514 in Las Vegas this year, albeit in a very hitter-friendly environment.
  • Via Newsday’s Marc Carig, Alderson also noted that the Mets may be in the market for a veteran starting pitcher to help stabilize the rotation in the wake of another injury-marred campaign for the club’s ballyhooed group of starters. A “Bartolo-type” of starter that can be relied upon for 180-plus innings would indeed seem a logical pursuit for the Mets, and the 2017-18 free agent market will have no shortage of options. Bartolo Colon himself will of course be available, as will innings eaters like John Lackey, Clayton Richard and Doug Fister, among many others.
  • Alderson revealed that Michael Conforto’s timeline for a recovery from surgery to repair the posterior capsule in his left shoulder is “roughly six months,” via the Post’s Greg Joyce. That’d put him on track to be ready for Spring Training, although the uncommon nature of his injury makes an exact timeline more difficult to nail down. The GM added that doctors have given no indication that there’s a risk of Conforto needing to alter his swing upon returning: “…[T]he fact that it’s his left shoulder, the fact that it’s his back shoulder when he swings, not his throwing shoulder, according to the doctors, is a positive.”
  • David Wright’s status moving forward is “uncertain at best,” Alderson stated, adding that the Mets will have to account for the lack of a definite hot corner option as they enter the offseason (via Carig). Wright, who required surgery to repair his right rotator cuff, is still owed $47MM through the end of the 2020 season. However, 75 percent of that sum is insured while Wright is on the disabled list, so the Mets will receive a sizable amount of compensation from 2018’s $20MM salary if the most recent surgery sidelines Wright for a lengthy period of time. Mike Moustakas will headline a fairly thin crop of free-agent third basemen, and A’s infielder Jed Lowrie figures to be one of several names available on the offseason trade market.
  • Right-hander Rafael Montero looks to be pitching his way into the team’s 2018 plans, writes Newsday’s Steven Marcus. Since returning from a demotion to Triple-A, he’s worked to a 4.44 ERA with 8.8 K/9, 4.1 BB/9 and a 46.7 percent ground-ball rate in 77 innings. “We said we either see strikes or, you know,” said manager Terry Collins of the message given to Montero when he was last sent down to the minors. “He went down and threw strikes. And he’s come back and he’s done exactly the same thing. When you have good stuff and you throw it in the strike zone, you’re going to get outs.” Montero will be out of minor league options next season, so he’ll need to break camp with the team or else be exposed to waivers.

The Inner Monologue of @DimTillard Playoffs & PONAR

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It’s 12:34pm on Tuesday September 5th, 2017.  My name is Tim Dillard.  I’m an elegantly bearded thirty-something-year-old-minor-league-pitcher, and a few days ago I finished my 15th season in professional baseball!  And every year I have been at some level in the Milwaukee Brewers organization!  Here’s more useless facts about myself… I ENJOY: short walks on the beach, the new wireless headphones I bought and haven’t told my wife about yet, saltwater taffy, wrestling with my three kids, cheap sunglasses, playing Clue, explaining Star Wars to teammates, and chronologically writing down my inner baseball thoughts… for money. (THANKS MLB Trade Rumors!)

12:37pm  Currently I have a window seat on a United flight from Denver to Memphis because, well, as you may already know… we made the PLAYOFFS!  That is right… for the first time in twenty years the Triple-A Colorado Springs Sky Sox Baseball Team has made it to the postseason!  The last time this happened, the team roster was filled with a bunch of players nobody’s ever heard of… like Craig Counsell and Todd Helton.

12:39pm  Can’t believe how packed this plane is right now.  I wonder if all these people are flying to Tennessee just for our playoff game tomorrow!  Pretty sure the guy sitting next to me is trying to read what I’m typing… and he may have stolen my peanuts. (I saw him eat two packs.)

12:40pm  You know, it’s hard to make the postseason.  Some players go their entire careers without making playoffs.  In the Triple-A Pacific Coast League, there are four divisions of four teams… and only the top four actually make the postseason.  So yep, it’s a big deal.

12:41pm  This will be the seventh time in my pro career to be part of a playoff team.  Six in America, and one in Venezuela. (¡Te amo y te extraño Águilas del Zulia!)

12:41pm  In 2003, my rookie ball team in Helena, Montana went to playoffs.  We didn’t win it all… and honestly that’s about all I can remember.  It feels like such a long time ago in a galaxy far, far away…

12:43pm  In 2006, the Double-A Huntsville Stars made playoffs and almost won the championship!  It was an interesting year too because we were statistically the worst team in all of baseball the first half of the season.  Then we added a pitcher (Yovani Gallardo) and a third baseman (Ryan Braun)… and just like that, we became the best team in all of baseball the second half!

12:47pm  In 2007, the Triple-A Nashville Sounds made the playoffs but lost in the first round.  After we clinched and were spraying discount champagne in each others’ eyes… the Major League club called up half the team.  We lost the team camaraderie voodoo, and were easily defeated by the New Orleans Zephyrs. (Insert loud weeping emoji)

12:50pm  In 2008, the Milwaukee Brewers made an amazing run to clinch the National League Wild Card!  I wasn’t added to the playoff roster, but I WAS however nervously eating clubhouse cheesesteaks every inning in Philadelphia!  (We didn’t win… but I did gain seven pounds.)

12:54pm  In 2011, the Brewers again made the playoffs and almost went to the World Series!  And again, I wasn’t added to the playoff roster.  But this time I got to carry the candy bag, sit in the bullpen, and wave my proverbial pom-poms!

12:56pm  Ok, I gotta know… here’s a test sentence for the guy next to me.  Excuse me airplane passenger sitting in 32B, are you by chance reading what I’m typing?

12:57pm  Haha!  He laughed… caughtcha!

1:11pm  Alright, so mister 32B’s real name is Anthony!  Good dude.

1:12pm  He asked me how my season went… I told him I was a relief pitcher, but got to be the backup catcher last month during a game in Salt Lake City!  The team had a need, so I dressed in full catcher’s gear, and warmed-up and caught four teammates in the bullpen!  I even got to warm one up on the field in between innings!

1:14pm  I also told my new travel companion about the different game delays I witnessed at the ball field this season.  There’s your basic rain, wind, lightning, dust, and hail delays.  But then there’s also the more interesting delays:  There was the fog delay.  And the too many bugs in the lights delay.  And of course the… two snakes trying to eat each other in left field delay.

1:117pm  But truthfully it’s difficult for a player to judge how his season went.  Probably because we’re biased, and want validation that all the good outweighed all the bad.  That all the sacrifices may have accomplished something.  Like all the workouts.  Spring training.  Plane trips.  Bus trips.  Being away from family.  Away from friends.  The aches.  The pains. (Special shout out to my boy ibuprofen… love you big guy!)

1:21pm  However baseball is all about statistics.  It measures everything.  From route efficiency and WAR.  To sabermetrical something something and WHIP.  Let’s not forget OBP, OFA, OPS, and OPP yeah you know me.  Anyway, you get it, “Stats on Stats on Stats.”

1:22pm  Which is all fine.  Statistics are necessary, but sometimes stats just don’t tell the whole story of a player’s season.

1:22pm  For instance, the way baseball measures, oh I don’t know, let’s say… the relief pitcher.  E.R.A. or Earned Run Average is a solid way to calculate a starting pitchers effectiveness, but can actually be a disadvantage for a reliever at times.

1:24pm  So that’s why back in 2012 I invented PONAR!  I’m certain some of you have already heard of this “LEGIT” bullpen statistic, so you can stop reading.  But for the rest of you… P.O.N.A.R means:  Percentage of Outings Not Allowing a Run (my first adaptation was P.O.O.N.A.R… but I didn’t think anyone would take that seriously, so I dropped the “Of” part)

1:27pm  But yeah… PONAR!  Pretty deep huh?

1:28pm  Essentially, what my imaginary stat measures, is:  how many times a relief pitcher comes into a game and has a scoreless appearance.  So if a pitcher’s PONAR is 90%, it means 9 out of 10 times he doesn’t give up a run.  It’s better than earned run average (E.R.A.) because if a reliever is lights-out 9 out of 10 times, but the 10th time gives up 7 runs… he’s still a fantastic pitcher!… even though he has 6.30 E.R.A.

1:33pm  As opposed to a relief pitcher giving up 1 run in 7 of 10 appearances.  His E.R.A. would be the same at 6.30… but his PONAR would be a dismal 30%.

1:34pm  Make sense?  (Insert confused emoji)

1:34pm  Oh well… anyone out there have the phone number for ESPN’s super-analyst Tim Kurkjian!?  I need to text him something.  He may be the man who can help get my PONAR off the ground!

1:35pm  Speaking of ground, I need to make sure my seat back and tray table are in their full upright and locked position.

To Be Concluded…

MLB Daily Roster Roundup: Moncada, Richards, Salazar

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ROSTER MOVES BY TEAM

NATIONAL LEAGUE

  • PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES | Depth Chart
    • Promotions: INF J.P. Crawford (contract purchased) TOP PROSPECT
      • Crawford played 3B and batted 7th in Tuesday’s game.
    • Placed on 60-Day DL: INF/OF Pedro Florimon Jr. (dislocated ankle)

—

AMERICAN LEAGUE

—

FUTURE EXPECTED MOVES

Jake Arrieta Out 7-10 Days With Grade 1 Hamstring Strain

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9:25pm: Arrieta told reporters after tonight’s game that the MRI revealed a Grade 1 strain of his right hamstring (video link via ESPN Chicago’s Jesse Rogers). The right-hander will miss at least one start and possibly two with the ailment, but it doesn’t sound as if there’s any long-term risk.

Sept. 5, 7:00pm: Arrieta is very likely to miss his next start, per MLB.com’s Carrie Muskat, but there has yet to be any indication that he’ll require a lengthy absence from the mound. Arrieta underwent an MRI today, though the results from the test aren’t yet known. Arrieta said before tonight’s game that it was likely a cramp that caused him to exit.

Sept. 4, 6:33pm: For now, at least, it seems Arrieta may have dodged a significant injury. He thinks he may even be able to take his next start, Gonzales tweets, and might not even need an MRI.

4:35pm: There’s still no diagnosis, but Arrieta is receiving treatment to his right hamstring, the team announced (via Mark Gonzales of the Chicago Tribune, on Twitter).

4:26pm: Cubs righty Jake Arrieta was pulled from his outing today in the third inning after seemingly suffering an injury to his right leg. He tried to throw a warm-up pitch after the issue arose, but was not able to carry on.

Needless to say, there’s no way of knowing at this point whether there’s any reason for long-term concern. The Cubs have only announced what was obvious to the naked eye: Arrieta left with “an apparent right leg injury.”

But at this stage of the season, even relatively minor injuries can be quite important. Arrieta, the National League’s Pitcher of the Month for August, is expected to help lead the rotation down the stretch and into the postseason.

Despite some iffy moments earlier this year, Arrieta currently owns a 3.36 ERA over 158 innings, with 153 strikeouts and 52 walks. That overall body of work — and his track record of durability — had also seemingly set him up for quite a lucrative foray into free agency at season’s end.

At this point, there’s not much the Cubs or Arrieta can do but wait and hope for the best. No matter the severity of the injury, the team can’t add an outside pitcher and utilize him the postseason; the deadline for doing so was August 31st.

While Chicago could in theory still acquire a starter just to help out during the month of September, there’s no real reason to do so. The Cubs had six quality options for the rotation, so won’t need to worry about depth.

Free Agent Stock Watch: Andrew Cashner

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Andrew Cashner took a one-year, $10MM deal with the Rangers last winter — far shy of the kind of earning power that was anticipated a few years back, when Cashner seemed to be one of the better young pitchers in baseball. Still, that was a significant one-year payout and came with hopes for a bigger payday this winter.

Aug 23, 2017; Anaheim, CA, USA; Texas Rangers starting pitcher Andrew Cashner (54) pitches against the Los Angeles Angels during the first inning at Angel Stadium of Anaheim. Mandatory Credit: Kelvin Kuo-USA TODAY SportsCashner has certainly made good on the deal from the Rangers’ perspective, as he has turned in 139 2/3 innings of 3.29 ERA pitching over 23 starts. That’s a great return on the team’s investment, helping to balance out the miss on Cashner’s former Padres teammate, Tyson Ross, who also joined the Texas staff in hopes of a turnaround.

Those superficial results, however, don’t tell us all we need to know about Cashner’s interesting upcoming foray into free agency. While it’s tempting simply to assume that the notably talented right-hander has finally found health and figured things out, organizations — including the Rangers — will be looking at quite a bit more information in valuing the rights to his future production.

It’s hard not to raise an eyebrow at Cashner’s ugly K/BB numbers. He has recorded just 4.8 K/9 — second-lowest among all qualified starters — against 3.3 BB/9 on the year. He also sports a meager 5.7% swinging-strike rate that not only falls well below his career average but also ranks dead last among qualified starting pitchers.

The hurler has continued to maintain solid ground-ball numbers, with a 48.4% rate thus far in 2017. And perhaps there’s some indication of contact management in the .267 batting average on balls in play to which he has limited opposing hitters; while that’s surely a sign that there Cashner has benefited from some good fortune, the 28.2 percent hard-hit rate he’s allowed is the eighth-lowest in MLB. Cashner has tamped down on the homers that hurt him last year (8.3% HR/FB, 0.77 HR/9), though again it’s tough to see that as a fully sustainable skill.

Clearly, the underlying metrics paint quite a different picture than do the bottom-line results. Unsurprisingly, ERA estimators are not enthused with Cashner’s work this year. SIERA (5.41) and xFIP (5.16) have never before been this bearish on the right-hander, while FIP (4.42) only prefers his work this year to his more homer-prone 2016 (when he carried a 4.84 mark).

Beyond the matters of present and projected talent, long-term durability remains something of a question given that Cashner has missed some time with arm issues in the past. He’ll turn 31 in a few days, so he isn’t old, but he’s also not particularly young for a free-agent pitcher. Notably, too, Cashner’s velocity has trended downward. This year, he’s sitting at 94 mph with his four-seamer and 92.9 mph with his sinker — around one full tick below the prior year in both cases (and yet further behind his peak levels).

So, what might the market make of all this? It’s rather difficult to say, truthfully, since it’s hard to find pitchers with anything approaching this kind of profile. While bounceback hurlers such as Rich Hill and Scott Kazmir have scored three-year, $48MM contracts in recent years after returning from rough stretches, they did so after carrying good results and peripherals for one or more prior seasons.

Frankly, it’s hard to see Cashner commanding that sort of AAV. That’s particularly true given the relatively robust slate of mid- and back-of-the-rotation hurlers lined up on the market behind the biggest names. Cashner will be competing with pitchers such as Jeremy Hellickson, Marco Estrada, Lance Lynn, Alex Cobb, Jaime Garcia, Miguel Gonzalez, Tyler Chatwood, John Lackey, and a host of others.

Cashner’s inability to generate swings and misses makes a qualifying offer (reportedly set to be worth about $18.1MM) seem unlikely. Hellickson, after all, had a more impressive overall body of work in 2016 but still accepted a $17.2MM QO from the Phillies. Texas may not really want to chance that outcome in the hopes of securing the now-reduced draft compensation that could be available if he declines and signs elsewhere. Or, perhaps, if both team and player enjoy the current arrangement, the sides could pursue a multi-year arrangement during the exclusive negotiating window. (That’s how the Blue Jays got Estrada to stay for two years and $26MM two years ago.)

With or without compensation, Cashner seems more likely to receive offers in that $8MM to $12MM annual range, dependent upon the length of the term. We have seen quite a few solid but flawed arms land in that admittedly wide bucket — often scoring long-term commitments. Three-year pacts have gone to J.A. Happ ($36MM) and Ivan Nova ($26MM) — both of which have held up rather well thus far. Pitchers such as Ricky Nolasco and Brandon McCarthy have secured ~$12MM annually over four-year terms, though they had stronger free-agent cases based on their underlying metrics than Cashner. We’ve even seen some lower-AAV, longer-term deals, such as those landed by Phil Hughes (three years, $24MM) and Jason Vargas (four years, $32MM), which function as a reminder that the market can always create one-off contract scenarios.

Perhaps the most interesting analogy, all things considered, comes from Yovani Gallardo’s recent trip into free agency. At the time, he was coming off of a year in which he put up 184 1/3 innings of 3.42 ERA pitching with a solid ground-ball rate but just 5.9 K/9 and 3.3 BB/9. He was younger than Cashner by about a year, with a lengthier track record of performance and durability, though he also had shown a more significant velocity decrease before entering the market. Gallardo was initially able to secure a $35MM guarantee over three years, but he ultimately had to settle for a promise of $22MM with a third-year option after a shoulder issue came up in his physical. Hopefully, Cashner can avoid any medical complications; he may also not come with draft compensation, which surely impacted Gallardo (who didn’t sign until late February).

While it’s hardly a perfect comp, the experience of Gallardo suggests there are some limits — but also that there’s real earning potential — for pitchers who have managed to post a solid ERA despite underwhelming peripheral indicators. Just how Cashner’s market will shape up is hard to guess at the moment, but he’ll be an interesting player to watch this winter.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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