Managers And Top Front Office Executives On Expiring Contracts
There are quite a few notable managers and top front office executives (general managers or heads of baseball operations who have different titles) entering their last guaranteed year under contract in 2018, creating even more pressure than usual to have a good season. Thanks to Cot’s Baseball Contracts for providing many of these contract details.
As always with this list, it should be noted that contract length is far from an absolute measure of job security. Teams with seemingly stable management could be one disastrous season away from a shakeup in the dugout or front office, while some of the managers or executives listed here could have “stay as long as you want” handshake deals in place. Some teams also don’t publicize contract details for front office executives, so some of the names on the list could have already quietly signed extensions, or there could be other execs entering their last year under contract.
Here are some of the names who could be facing a hotter seat than usual in 2018 (alphabetical order by organization) …
Angels: Long-time manager Mike Scioscia is in an interesting situation as he wraps up an unusually massive contract — ten years at a guaranteed $50MM. After a few disappointing campaigns, there’s definitely pressure to win. And expectations are on the rise as GM Billy Eppler continues to add significant pieces in what has been a highly productive offseason. Just what the future holds really isn’t clear from the outside, but it’ll be fascinating to see how things shake out for Scioscia, who is easily the longest-tenured skipper in the game.
Braves: The Atlanta organization was hit by surprise front office upheaval, perhaps nudging the team to seek stability in the dugout. Thus it was that manager Brian Snitker had his option exercised despite a disappointing second half of the 2017 season. It’s hard to know whether Snitker will have a legitimate shot at maintaining his job into the future, though perhaps he can force the hand of new GM Alex Anthopoulos with a strong performance.
Dodgers: Dave Roberts is almost certainly not going anywhere after managing the Dodgers to the World Series in 2017. But this is the final guaranteed season of his rookie managerial deal, with the club also possessing a 2019 option. It wouldn’t be surprising at all if longer-term negotiations take place at some point over the current offseason.
Indians: Similarly, Cleveland skipper Terry Francona seems to be rather embedded in his organization’s fabric. He is not promised anything past 2018, though the team does possess consecutive options over the ensuing two campaigns. Barring a surprising turn of events, it seems likely Francona will continue running the clubhouse through the end of the potential term contemplated in his deal.
Nationals: It’s hard to know what Nats ownership will do, but president of baseball operations/GM Mike Rizzo has indicated he’s happy either to fulfill his duties as a lame duck or to discuss a new deal if approached. Despite wild success in the regular season — the second-most wins in the majors since 2012, with four NL East titles — the club has fizzled out repeatedly in the postseason. That led to the surprising departure of manager Dusty Baker after the ’17 campaign. All that said, it’d be quite a surprise for the organization to let go of Rizzo, who has steadily produced results throughout his tenure.
Orioles: Things are even more interesting on the north side of the beltway, as O’s executive VP of baseball ops Dan Duquette and manager Buck Showalter are each entering contract years. There are persistent rumors of discord between those two figures, who’ll also be looking to navigate some tricky roster limitations after a disappointing 2017 season in which the club posted a losing record for the first time since 2011.
Rangers: Indications are that president of baseball ops/GM Jon Daniels is going to lock up a new deal with the organization, though at this point — so far as is known — he’s only under contract through the coming campaign. Meanwhile, manager Jeff Banister may be on shakier ground if he can’t help engineer a turnaround. He’s in a contract year, too, though the club can also simply decide at some point to pick up his 2019 option.
Reds: One of the hottest managerial seats in the game is likely the one in Cincinnati. Current leader Bryan Price was given another chance to work with a still-transitioning roster in 2018, though the club did not pursue any additional future security. Just what the expectations are — further development? real movement in the standings? — isn’t immediately clear, but Price will need to state his case to retain his job.
Royals: Having led the K.C. club to a stunning World Series win, skipper Ned Yost likely isn’t in any risk. But he is entering the final year of the two-year extension he signed after the 2015 season. The Royals are readying for a new phase after losing several core players to free agency, creating some uncertainty. Yost says he doesn’t expect still to be at the helm when the club is again cresting, but has indicated he hopes “to get a firm footing and a firm foundation on the ground” to hand off to a successor. Just how long he and the team will want to continue the current arrangement isn’t known.
Diamondbacks Re-Sign Jake Buchanan
The Diamondbacks have agreed to a minors pact with righty Jake Buchanan, per a club announcement. (H/t Chris Cotillo of SB Nation for the heads up.)
Buchanan, 28, has seen time in each of the past four MLB campaigns, though he has made just 29 appearances in that span. In 64 2/3 total frames, Buchanan owns a 4.73 ERA with 4.6 K/9 and 3.3 BB/9.
In 2017, Buchanan opened at Triple-A with the Cubs, was claimed by the Reds, and ultimately took the ball a few times in the majors with Cincinnati. After being designated for assignment, he rejected an outright assignment and ultimately landed in the Arizona organization.
Over 105 2/3 innings at the highest level of the minors in 2017, Buchanan carried a 4.51 ERA with 6.0 K/9 and 2.5 BB/9. That’s a close match for his overall numbers at Triple-A, where he has thrown over five hundred frames in six seasons, with a cumulative 4.39 ERA and 5.9 K/9 against 2.2 BB/9.
MLBTR Chat Transcript
Click to read a transcript of Tuesday’s chat with MLBTR’s Steve Adams.
Reds Sign Jared Hughes
The Reds announced that they’ve signed right-handed reliever Jared Hughes to a two-year contract with a club option for the 2020 season as well. Hughes, who was non-tendered by the division-rival Brewers earlier this month, is a client of SSG Baseball.
SB Nation’s Chris Cotillo reports that it’s a two-year, $4.5MM contract for Hughes, who will earn $2.125MM in both 2018 and 2019 (Twitter links). The club option is valued at $3MM and comes with a $250K buyout, per Cotillo, who also notes that Hughes can earn up to $750K worth of incentives based on appearances in each year of the contract (including the option year, if exercised). Hughes would take home $100K for reaching 25, 30, 35, 40, 45 and 50 games pitched, and he’ll earn $75K for reaching 55 and 60 appearances as well. For a reliever that has averaged 68 appearances per year over the past four seasons, those incentive packages are highly attainable.
Hughes, 32, has long posted solid run-prevention numbers in the NL Central, combining for 250 1/3 innings of 2.55 ERA ball across four seasons between the Pirates and Brewers from 2014-17. He’s also consistently shown a knack for inducing ground-balls (career 61.2 percent), but a lack of strikeouts has seemingly limited Hughes’ earning potential in recent years.
Hughes has averaged just 5.5 K/9 across the past four seasons and, in addition to being non-tendered by the Brewers, was released by the Pirates in Spring Training 2016. However, a fastball that averaged nearly 94 mph this past season and a healthy swinging-strike rate of 11.6 percent suggest that perhaps he can maintain the improved 7.2 K/9 clip he posted in ’17. Then again, the 2017 season also saw Hughes allow a career-worst 36.7 percent hard-contact rate, which contributed to a respectable but unspectacular .318 wOBA from opposing hitters (though that number was directly in line with expectations based on his batted-ball profile, per Statcast). Certainly, based on today’s contract, the Reds seem to place a higher value on Hughes’ skill set than their two division rivals that have cut Hughes loose over the past two years.
Raisel Iglesias is entrenched in the closer’s role in Cincinnati, but Hughes will join a setup corps that also included right-hander Michael Lorenzen and left-hander Wandy Peralta. Several of Cincinnati’s late-inning spots remain up for grabs, but Hughes seems likely to lock down one of those spots for the foreseeable future.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Taking Inventory: Detroit Tigers
The Tigers have already dealt with a significant portion of their offseason business, dealing their most obvious trade candidate, Ian Kinsler, to the Angels during this month’s Winter Meetings. They’ve also filled some holes with affordable veterans, picking up Mike Fiers for the fifth spot in the rotation and adding Leonys Martin on a low-cost, one-year deal to fill center field.
Still, the Detroit front office is hardly set to merely call it an offseason. The Tigers made clear with their trade of Kinsler and their summer trades of Justin Verlander, J.D. Martinez, Justin Upton, Justin Wilson and Alex Avila that they’re embarking on a full-scale teardown of the organization. Although those trades have strengthened a thin Tigers farm system, the team still has work to do as it builds up toward a top-of-the-line minor league system and a generally more sustainable avenue to contention than perennially shelling out $200MM+ payrolls.
With Kinsler out of the picture, here’s a look at the remaining assets the Tigers could realistically market this winter…
One-Year Rentals
Jose Iglesias, SS ($5.6MM projected arbitration salary): A superlative defender at shortstop, Iglesias delivered solid offensive output in 2013-15 before his bat deteriorated in 2016-17. He’s batted just .255/.297/.353 across the past two seasons, but for a team in need of a defensive upgrade in the infield or on the bench, Iglesias would be a reasonably low-priced upgrade.
Two Years of Control
Nicholas Castellanos, OF/3B ($7.6MM projected arb salary): Castellanos’ overall .272/.320/.490 was above-average but not outstanding. However, the former top prospect ranked fifth in the Majors in hard-contact rate (among qualified hitters), and Statcast credited him for the 10th-highest number of barreled balls in all of Major League Baseball.
Castellanos comes with significant defensive questions, as he’s been a staggering 64 runs below average in 4400 innings at third base (per Defensive Runs Saved) and eight runs below average in just 211 innings in the outfield. He’s not exactly cheap, but the batted-ball profile could make him intriguing to a team that believes he could improve with additional reps in the outfield.
Alex Wilson, RHRP ($2.1MM projected arb salary): The 31-year-old righty is coming off the worst season of his career (4.50 ERA, 6.3 K/9, 2.3 BB/9, 1.05 HR/9, 41.6 percent ground-ball rate), but he was a quality bullpen piece for the Red Sox and Tigers from 2014-16. During that time, Wilson logged a 2.47 ERA in 171 1/3 innings of work, albeit with a pedestrian 5.6 K/9 mark against a more encouraging 1.9 BB/9 clip. He’s no stranger to working multi-inning stints and represents an affordable middle relief option.
Longer-Term Assets
Michael Fulmer, SP (pre-arbitration): Fulmer, obviously, would command the largest return of anyone the Tigers could make available. The 2016 AL Rookie of the Year is controlled for another five full seasons and won’t reach arbitration until next winter, when he qualifies for Super Two status. Fulmer was carrying a 3.06 ERA and 3.24 FIP with 6.3 K/9, 2.0 BB/9, 0.51 HR/9 and a 50.4 percent ground-ball rate through his first 123 2/3 innings this season before his production fell off a cliff. He ultimately underwent surgery to repair the ulnar nerve in his right arm in mid-September, bringing his sophomore season to a close.
The Tigers could extract a king’s ransom for Fulmer, though some teams may be wary of paying top dollar (in terms of prospects) for a pitcher coming off elbow surgery without first seeing that he’s rebounded to an extent. There’s little urgency to trade Fulmer when he can be controlled for the next half decade, but the dearth of high-quality arms available on the trade market could motivate a club to put together a massive offer.
Shane Greene, RHRP ($1.7MM projected arb salary, controlled through 2020): Greene showed plenty to like in his first full season as a reliever, averaging 9.7 K/9 with a 47.4 percent ground-ball rate and a heater that averaged 95 mph en route to a 2.66 ERA through 67 2/3 innings. However, he also posted just an 8.6 percent swinging-strike rate, averaged 4.5 walks per nine and allowed a huge 41.3 percent hard-contact rate. That’s not ideal for a late-inning reliever, of course, though Greene’s strong spin rate on his slider (which ranked 20th of 173 relievers who threw the pitch at least 100 times) could give teams optimism that there’s some untapped potential.
James McCann, C ($2.3MM rojected arb salary, controlled through 2020): McCann won’t turn 28 until next summer, and he’s coming off the best offensive season of his career, having slashed .253/.318/.415 with a career-best 13 homers. He’s long had his share of struggles against righties, but the right-handed-hitting McCann has absolutely obliterated left-handed pitching in his career, as evidenced by a .287/.346/.538 batting line (including .298/.371/.558 in 2017). McCann has thrown out 37 percent of would-be base thieves in his career, though he drew poor marks from Baseball Prospectus for his pitch framing and blocking in 2017. (He was solid in both regards in 2016.) A contender in need of an upgrade behind the dish (e.g. the Nationals) could try to pry McCann away from the Tigers, as he almost certainly won’t be a part of the next competitive Detroit club.
Mikie Mahtook, OF (pre-arbitration): The Tigers have only had Mahtook for one year, having successfully bought low on the former first-rounder last February in a trade with the Rays. The 28-year-old batted .276/.330/.457 through 379 trips to the plate with Detroit. Mahtook has played all three outfield spots, and while most metrics aren’t kind to him in center field, he’s drawn solid UZR marks in the corners (DRS doesn’t care for his glovework anywhere, while Statcast pegged him as a neutral defender in 2017). Detroit can hang onto him for another four years, so there’s no rush to move him. The return, at present, would probably be fairly minimal. However, another solid year — perhaps with greater playing time — could bolster intrigue.
Miguel Cabrera, 1B/DH (six years, $192MM remaining): It’s almost unfathomable to envision a Cabrera trade on the heels of a .249/.329/.399 (92 OPS+) season when he’s owed a staggering average of $32MM over the next six seasons. The former MVP was diagnosed with a pair of herniated disks in his back in September and will play next season at the age of 35. If Cabrera were a free agent right now, he’d earn a mere fraction of that remaining commitment. No one would take on his contract — all of which may be moot, as he also has full no-trade protection.
Salary Dump Candidates
Jordan Zimmermann (three years, $74MM remaining; full no-trade clause), Victor Martinez (one year, $18MM remaining; full no-trade clause)
The Tigers would love to shed either of these contracts, but it’s difficult to see any takers lining up — especially for Zimmermann. Detroit can hold out some hope that Zimmermann will rebound in 2018, which would position him as a more plausible trade candidate after the 2018 season, when his no-trade provision drops from all 29 other teams to a limited 10-team clause. That’s a lot to expect, though, considering his diminished velocity, strikeout rate and ground-ball rate (to say nothing of a skyrocketing home run rate).
Martinez, meanwhile, just turned 39 years old and is coming off a season in which he hit just .255/.324/.372 and was limited to 435 plate appearances, in part due to a pair of DL stints for an irregular heartbeat. His value is at an all-time low, and he’s been mentioned as a speculative release candidate more than a potential trade piece.
Minor MLB Transactions: 12/26/17
Here are the day’s minor moves from around baseball…
- The Rakuten Golden Eagles of Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball announced Tuesday that they’ve signed former Dodgers farmhand O’Koyea Dickson (English link via the Japan Times). Dickson, 27, made his Major League debut with the Dodgers in 2017 but went hitless in seven trips to the plate. However, he’s compiled a solid .275/.341/.499 batting line with 55 homers and 77 doubles in 1255 plate appearances across parts of three Triple-A seasons. Dickson has played primarily first base in the minors (3230 innings), but he also comes with nearly 1200 innings of experience in left field. The Eagles announced him as an outfielder, so it seems that’s how he’ll be viewed in his first year of action overseas.
Twins Have Interest In Mike Napoli
DEC. 27: Jon Heyman of FanRag notes that although no deal was ever imminent (and he never reported that it was), the talks should be considered serious, as he believes they’ve progressed to a point where Minnesota looks like the most likely landing spot for the first baseman.
5:50pm: MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand hears that while the Twins like Napoli, there’s nothing imminent between the two sides (Twitter link). Mike Berardino of the St. Paul Pioneer-Press (Twitter link) hears similarly, saying the Twins’ focus remains on their pitching staff.
DEC. 25, 10:32am: The two sides are in “serious talks,” says Jon Heyman of FanRag Sports.
DEC. 24: The Twins have interest in signing free agent first baseman Mike Napoli and have been in touch with Napoli’s agent, according to La Velle E. Neal III and Phil Miller of the Minneapolis Star Tribune. Gerry Fraley of the Dallas Morning News first noted the interest recently via Twitter. There isn’t any sign yet that the two sides are close to an agreement.
This isn’t the first time that Minnesota has been linked to Napoli, as the club originally tried to sign Napoli last offseason and actually offered him a larger deal than the one he eventually signed with the Rangers — a one-year, $6MM deal with an $11MM club option for 2019 that included a $2.5MM buyout. At the time, Napoli chose the Rangers because they looked like a better bet to contend in 2017, though it was the Twins who ended up making a surprise run to the AL wild card game while Texas posted a losing record.
It was a tough year for Napoli as well, as the veteran hit only .193/.285/.428 over 485 plate appearances for the Rangers, though he did slug 29 home runs. A torn right hand ligament may well have contributed to Napoli’s struggles, though the Rangers chose to buy the veteran out rather than bet $8.5MM more on a rebound year for a player who turned 36 on Halloween.
Given that Napoli provided good power numbers even despite an overall lackluster season at the plate, he could provide a right-handed boost to the Twins’ bench, and even become a major bargain if he could regain the old form that he displayed as recently as the 2016 season. As Neal and Miller note, the Twins also value Napoli’s reputation as a clubhouse leader, which could be particularly important for a young team that has an eye towards becoming a regular contender. Twins chief baseball officer Derek Falvey and GM Thad Levine are both very familiar with Napoli’s contributions on and off the field, as Napoli played for the Indians and Rangers when Falvey and Levine respectively worked in those clubs’ front offices.
The Twins’ move towards contention and their lack of future payroll commitments have given them lots of options this winter, as the club has been linked to several major names on the free agents and trade markets (though Fernando Rodney has been the only truly notable addition to date). Minnesota has much more of a dire need for pitching than hitting, so signing a part-time bat like Napoli wouldn’t do much to slow their hopes of landing a top-tier arm.
Free Agent Faceoff: Yu Darvish vs. Jake Arrieta
While the relief market has been highly active over the past month, there’s been little activity at the top end of the market for free agent starters. Heading into the winter, Yu Darvish and Jake Arrieta stood as the top two available starters, and neither has come to terms on a new contract for the 2018 campaign. Both seem like candidates to pull in nine-figure deals, even with fairly quiet market to date, though opinions vary as to which is the better investment.
Both Darvish and Arrieta are 31 years of age, though Arrieta will pitch all of the 2018 season at the age of 32, while Darvish won’t turn 32 until next August. Arrieta, though, doesn’t have a major arm injury on his recent track record, whereas Darvish missed all of the 2015 season and part of the 2016 campaign due to Tommy John surgery.
Darvish, of course, left a poor final impression on fans when he was tattooed by the Astros in a pair of postseason outings, though SI’s Tom Verducci was told by an anonymous Astros player that Darvish was tipping his pitches in both of those outings. Prior to that ugly finish, Darvish was trending up, pitching to a 3.10 ERA with a 75-to-14 K/BB ratio in 11 starts as a Dodger (between the regular season and the first two rounds of postseason play). Overall, he finished out the year with a 3.86 ERA, 10.1 K/9, 2.8 BB/9, 1.3 HR/9 and a 40.9 percent ground-ball rate.
Despite the recent Tommy John operation, Darvish averaged 94.2 mph on his heater — his best mark to date in the Majors — and cleared 200 innings when factoring in postseason play. Darvish has been an All-Star in each of his four full healthy MLB seasons, and he owns a 3.27 ERA with more than 11 strikeouts per nine innings over dating back to his second big league season. In 832 1/3 Major League innings, Darvish has been worth roughly 19 WAR per both Baseball Reference and Fangraphs.
Arrieta, meanwhile, had one of the great hot streaks in MLB history in 2015 when he rode a staggeringly dominant second half to National League Cy Young honors. In Arrieta’s final 147 innings of that 2015 campaign, Arrieta pitched to an unthinkable 0.86 ERA with 147 strikeouts against 27 walks issued. Darvish cannot lay claim to a run nearly that dominant at any point in his career. (Few pitchers can, of course.)
Certainly, though, Arrieta’s dominance has not been limited to that stretch of 20 starts. In parts of five seasons with the Cubs — a total of 803 big league innings — Arrieta logged a 2.73 ERA with 8.9 K/9, 2.7 BB/9 and considerably above-average ground-ball tendencies. His innings total has declined in consecutive seasons, though, and Arrieta’s 92.1 mph average fastball in 2017 was the lowest of his career. Arrieta’s home-run and ground-ball rates trended in the wrong direction this past season, as was the case with his velocity.
Arrieta does come with more postseason experience and success than Darvish, though that may not carry as much weight with the game’s increasingly analytically-inclined front offices. He’ll also cost his new team a draft pick in 2018, whereas Darvish isn’t tied to compensation due to the fact that he was traded midseason.
MLBTR projected nine-figure commitments for each of the two in free agency this offseason, though Darvish topped our 2017-18 MLB free agent rankings, which were based on earning potential. There have been reports suggesting that Arrieta and agent Scott Boras are seeking upwards of $200MM, while others have suggested Stephen Strasburg‘s seven-year, $175MM deal as a target for Darvish and his reps at Wasserman. Of course, all agents are going to aim high early in negotiations, and those early targets don’t necessarily line up with the dollar figures that the two stars will ultimately command.
Each pitcher has his merits, and there are various cases to be made in favor of one over the other. With all of that said, I’ll open this up to MLBTR readers to voice their opinions (link to poll for Trade Rumors app users)…
Which free agent starter would you rather sign?
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Yu Darvish 60% (10,426)
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Jake Arrieta 40% (6,895)
Total votes: 17,321
Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
International Notes: Huff, Kim
While it’s been slow on the free-agent front in the North America, plenty of recognizable names have been landing deals overseas in Japan and Korea. A couple of notes on the international market as the holiday season is in full swing…
- Lefty David Huff has agreed to a one-year, $1.3MM deal with the Yakult Swallows in Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball, according to the Japan Times. The 33-year-old last suited up in the Majors for the 2016 Angels but spent parts of eight seasons in the bigs, posting a 5.17 ERA with 5.4 K/9, 3.0 BB/9 and a 38.8 percent ground-ball rate in 393 1/3 innings, spending time as both a starter and a reliever. Since his last big league appearance, Huff has been thriving with the LG Twins of the Korea Baseball Organization, pitching to a 2.66 ERA with 6.5 K/9 against 1.0 BB/9 in 199 1/3 innings in an extremely hitter-friendly setting.
- Though Hyun Soo Kim recently signed a four-year contract to return to the KBO (worth a total of $10.7MM), the 29-year-old said at his introductory press conference with the LG Twins that he’s not totally closed off to taking another shot at the Majors if the opportunity presents itself (link via Jee-ho Yoo of the Yonhap News Agency). Kim also spoke highly of his time in the Majors and the amount that he learned playing in parts of two seasons with the Orioles and Phillies. “[T]he biggest lesson is that I realized the importance of routines,” said Kim. “I thought I had built a solid routine myself, but it was nothing compared to what the big leaguers were doing. I thought players who stuck to their routines were always able to get out of their slumps quickly.” Yoo also “marveled” at the manner in which big league players took care of their bodies, Yoo writes, and offered a candid assessment of his time in the Majors. While he attributes many of his struggles to a lack of regular playing time, he takes responsibility for his lack of at-bats. “I didn’t play well when I did have my opportunity,” said Kim. “So it’s on me.”
Recent Christmas Day Transactions
Happy Holidays, MLBTR readers! We hope you’re all enjoying the season of giving. December 25th is typically a quiet day for transactional news, but it’s not altogether uncommon for teams to make small moves. Since the turn of the millenium, there have been a few players to receive Christmas presents in the form of minor league contracts, and even one who earned a major league deal. Here’s a quick recap of the Christmas Day signings since the year 2000…
2016
- The Tigers signed left-fielder Quincy Latimore to a minor league deal.
- The Red Sox inked third baseman Heiker Meneses and left fielder Brian Bogusevic to minors pacts, the latter of whom was extended an invitation to spring training camp.
2013
- The Yankees reached a deal with right-hander Yoshinori Tateyama on a minor league contract that included a spring training invite.
2012
- The Cubs signed right-hander Jaye Chapman to a minor league deal with an invitation to spring training.
2007
- The Giants signed right-hander Keiichi Yabu to a minors pact with a spring training invite.
2004
- The Cardinals signed Abraham Nunez, a utility infield type, to a minor league contract and invited him to spring training.
- The Royals signed right-hander Jose Lima to a major league contract. The club also added infielder Luis Ugueto on a minor league deal with a spring training invite.