Poll: Who Will Sign Yoan Moncada?
You all know the basic Yoan Moncada story by now. He is a young, switch-hitting infielder (or, possibly center fielder) who has tons of tools and arguably rates amongst the top dozen or so prospect-level players. (Or, he will once he qualifies for such lists.) Now eligible to sign, a decision is expected in relatively short order.
Of course, in addition to whatever bonus Moncada receives, the team that signs him will be required to pony up a 100% tax on whatever amount it pays him over its international bonus pool allocation. With many teams having already spent to or past their total pool dollars, it is in effect a doubling of the bonus. And it must be paid up front, rather than spread over time.
In spite of the financial nuances, Moncada’s total signing value will offer fascinating insight into what kind of value that level of prospect really has in today’s game.
(That question — and how it relates to the excess value in the contract of a certain veteran pitcher on a longer-term deal — was something that Steve Adams and I discussed in the most recent MLBTR podcast. For what it’s worth, the podcast also featured Andrew Miller, whose services over the last several months of the year were valued highly enough that the Orioles gave up a well-regarded young arm to secure them.)
Of course, the signing will also represent a huge financial commitment for a player who figures to be a ways off from reaching the big leagues. By my count, a dozen teams have been connected to Moncada in some manner publicly. Two of those — the Cubs and Rangers — would be ineligible to sign him unless he waits until after July 2 of this year.
Now is your chance to help pool the wisdom of MLBTR readers before a deal is done. Which of the following teams (or sets of teams) is likeliest to land Moncada?
Which Team Will Sign Yoan Moncada?
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Yankees 31% (8,014)
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Dodgers 18% (4,753)
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Red Sox 11% (2,749)
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Other 10% (2,627)
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Padres 7% (1,881)
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Cubs or Rangers 6% (1,493)
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Giants 5% (1,295)
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Tigers 4% (1,131)
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Brewers 3% (736)
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Athletics 3% (657)
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Diamondbacks 2% (451)
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Rays 1% (302)
Total votes: 26,089
Pitching Notes: Pen Market, Beimel, Mets, Coke, Stroman
The Blue Jays and Indians appear not to be involved with any of the three best remaining relievers — righties Francisco Rodriguez, Rafael Soriano, and Joba Chamberlain — according to ESPN.com’s Jim Bowden (Insider link). Other theoretically plausible landing spots seem fairly dried up as well, he notes in assessing the most likely remaining suitors.
Here are a few more pitching notes:
- Mariners GM Jack Zduriencik says that the club spoke with lefty reliever Joe Beimel but that a deal could not be reached, Shannon Drayer of 710 ESPN tweets. Beimel had a nice rebound campaign last year in Seattle, and is one of the few southpaws left on the market.
- The Mets will not be dealing away any pitchers unless circumstances change, Marc Carig of Newsday reports (Twitter links). Dillon Gee generated the most discussion, but New York never found an offer it liked and its prospective trade partners went with other options.
- We checked in earlier this evening on K-Rod and lefty Phil Coke, each of whom has received some interest from the Marlins. Within that post, we noted a report from Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet.ca (via Twitter) indicating that Coke still has hope of landing a big league pact.
- Marcus Stroman of the Blue Jays is likely not going anywhere any time soon, but I can’t help but link to this interesting piece from Jeff Sullivan of Fangraphs, who explains that Stroman’s arsenal of pitches looks like it was assembled from amongst the best offerings of some of the very best arms in the game.
Latest On Cuban Market
With the crop of six-year service time free agents thinning noticeably, attention has turned to the fascinating group of players readying to sign after leaving their native Cuba. Kiley McDaniel of Fangraphs has been among the most active observers on this still-developing segment of the market, and delivers a host of interesting information in his latest post on the subject.
While I recommend a full read of his work, here are some highlights:
- Hector Olivera is the lone name who figures to have immediate impact. (Fellow middle infielder Jose Fernandez reportedly remains in Cuba after having been thought to have left with intentions of seeking a MLB deal.) McDaniel agrees with Baseball America’s Ben Badler that Olivera has the potential for immediate impact, but says there are significant doubts about his long-term prospects. For one, Olivera’s medical history is not just limited to sports injuries, but includes a significant case of thrombosis. Then, there is the fact that Olivera’s age cannot be confirmed with certainty and even some indications that scouts are questioning why he is “fatigued earlier in workouts than an athlete of his size, strength and age should.”
- Ultimately, McDaniel concurs with Badler that Olivera is seeking and could obtain a $10MM+ annual guarantee. But McDaniel cautions that he expects it to run over just two or three seasons (with an outside chance at a fourth guaranteed year) with options and incentives included.
- The other name making noise at the recent international showcase was Cuban righty Yadier Alvarez, who McDaniel has in the mid-to-upper 90s with a plus slider and promising change. The rest of the package checks out for his age, with McDaniel saying that Alvarez’s raw talent and progress to date is on the same level as the very best high school arms entering the draft. Alvarez expects to have him ready to sign in the next month or two and does not seem inclined to wait for the market to turn over on July 2nd, which would mean the Cubs and Rangers would not be eligible to sign him. (Should he wait to sign, Alvarez would lose the Yankees, Red Sox, Rays, D’backs, and Angels as potential suitors.) While this particular market is in the very earliest stages of development, McDaniel says that Alvarez is plainly superior to Yoan Lopez, who just got a $8.25MM bonus from Arizona.
- McDaniel also provides an update on 21-year-old infielder Andy Ibanez, who is seemingly no longer showcasing. That could mean that he is in the process of (or will soon be) sorting through offers. While the demand side of the equation is hard to peg in his case, McDaniel says he expects one of the bonus-busting teams listed above to land him at a potential cost of between $5MM to $12MM.
- The most exciting name out there remains Yoan Moncada. Though there is not much new to pass on in his case, Badler does present some video of Moncada’s past plate appearances against several notable young arms. One executive tells Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports (Twitter links) that the bidding on Moncada could reach nine figures in terms of total investment (given the near-100% tax for signing him). Rosenthal also says that the Moncada case may be a catalyst for debate on the issue of how amateur rights are secured.
Marlins Pursuing Phil Coke, Considering Francisco Rodriguez
The Marlins are looking to pick up one or two of the few remaining free agent pen arms, according to a report from MLB.com’s Joe Frisaro. Miami is “looking to sign” southpaw Phil Coke to a minor league pact and remains open to striking a deal with Francisco Rodriguez, per the report.
If a deal is struck, the 32-year-old Coke would be given a spring invite and a chance to earn a role as the team’s second lefty out of the pen. Coke has put up less-than-outstanding results over the past two seasons, but induces groundballs at a handy rate and still brings a mid-90s fastball from the left side. The Steamer projection system, at least, expects better run prevention from him in 2015.
Of course, it is not clear that Miami will be able to woo Coke on a minor league deal. Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet.ca reports on Twitter that the veteran is looking for a $2MM guarantee and still has possible fits on a big league commitment, with plenty of teams interested in minor league pacts.
As for Rodriguez, he would obviously need to be willing to function in a set-up role in front of closer Steve Cishek. He has been most closely connected to the Brewers, of course, and it is unclear whether Miami would look to compete or merely function as a lower-priced backup option if Milwaukee does not sign K-Rod. Even at this point in the offseason, Frisaro says that Rodriguez is expected to earn $10MM or more over two years.
Mariners Designate Edgar Olmos
The Mariners have designated lefty Edgar Olmos for assignment, the team announced. His roster spot goes to utilityman Rickie Weeks, whose signing was made official.
Olmos, 24, was claimed off waivers by Seattle from the Marlins earlier in the offseason. His miniscule MLB sample does not tell us much, but does indicate that he has a 95+mph fastball. He has struggled to limit the free passes, though is coming off his lowest-ever walk rate over a full season (3.5 per nine in 77 2/3 innings in the upper minors last year).
Minor Moves: Herndon, Bell, Germen, Guillon, Rapada
Here are today’s minor moves from around the league…
- Righty David Herndon has signed a minor league deal with the Brewers, Adam McCalvy of MLB.com tweets. The 29-year-old, who is trying to reach the bigs for the first time since 2012, has been significantly limited by injuries over the last several seasons. Over 117 total MLB frames from 2010-12, Herndon owns a 3.85 ERA with 5.8 K/9 against 3.2 BB/9.
- Third baseman Josh Bell has signed a minor league deal with the Padres, agent Josh Kusnick announced on Twitter. Formerly a top prospect with the Dodgers and one of the top 40 prospects in baseball (per Baseball America and Baseball Prospectus), Bell spent much of last season in Korea, hitting .267/.345/.433 with the LG Twins. Those numbers are a near-mirror image of his career line at Triple-A, where he’s batted .267/.355/.451 in 1402 plate appearances.
- Right-hander Gonzalez Germen has cleared outright waivers and been assigned to Triple-A Iowa by the Cubs, tweets the Chicago Tribune’s Mark Gonzales. Germen, who has been designated for assignment a stunning four times this winter, will finally know which organization he will be a part of come Spring Training. He’ll be invited to Major League camp, per Gonzales.
Earlier Moves
- Reds left-hander Ismael Guillon has cleared waivers and been outrighted to Triple-A, reports MLB.com’s Mark Sheldon (on Twitter). Guillon was designated for assignment when the team signed Burke Badenhop over the weekend. Guillon, who turns 23 years old today, has been a mainstay on Cincinnati’s Top 30 prospects list (per Baseball America), topping out at No. 9, but he’s struggled to a 4.82 ERA over the past two seasons at multiple Class-A levels. Fangraphs’ Kiley McDaniel recently ranked him 21st among Reds farmhands, noting that one scout called him a “pull your hair out” type of guy due to his wild inconsistencies.
- The Giants have signed lefty specialist Clay Rapada to a minor league contract, reports Baseball America’s Matt Eddy (via Twitter). Yankees blogger Robert Casey first reported the news recently on Twitter. Rapada, 34 in March, has just two Major League innings over the past two seasons but has an excellent track record of dominating left-handed hitters. He’s held opposing lefties to a .164/.255/.231 batting line in 257 big league plate appearances, but righties have tattooed him at a .345/.464/.611 clip. Rapada held lefties to a .639 OPS in Triple-A last season, but righties got to him for a 1.134 OPS.
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Third baseman Nick Delmonico, who was released by the Brewers last week, has latched on with the White Sox on a minor league deal, tweets Eddy. If Delmonico’s name looks familiar, it’s because he was the player the Brewers received from the Orioles in exchange for Francisco Rodriguez in 2013. Formerly one of Baltimore’s top prospects, Delmonico was suspended last summer for amphetamine usage. The 22-year-old has yet to climb higher than Class-A Advanced, where he is a .241/.332/.417 hitter in 500 plate appearances.
- Eddy also tweets that the Red Sox have signed right-hander Jess Todd — not to be confused with MLBTR scribe Jeff Todd — to a minor league contract. Todd, originally drafted by the Cardinals, was traded to the Indians alongside Chris Perez in return for Mark DeRosa back in 2009. Now 28 years of age, Todd has little MLB experience (28 1/3 innings) but does boast a strong track record at Triple-A, where he’s worked to a 3.62 ERA with 9.2 K/9 and 3.3 BB/9 in 380 1/3 innings.
AL East Notes: Eovaldi, Cecchini, Albers, Blue Jays
The Yankees‘ primary focus with trade acquisition Nathan Eovaldi will be on improving his offspeed offerings, writes Dan Martin of the New York Post. Despite Eovaldi’s imposing velocity, the 25-year-old generates a surprisingly low number of strikeouts. And, while he struggles more against left-handed hitters, his lack of whiffs isn’t as a result of any platoon issue (6.5 K/9 vs. RHB in his career; 6.0 K/9 vs. LHB). He’s already begun working with pitching coach Larry Rothschild on improving those pitches and would do well to improve his change-up to give him a true out pitch versus lefties. As it is, lefty hitters have batted .466 with a .655 slugging percentage against Eovaldi’s change in his career. The Yankees, Martin writes, were drawn to Eovaldi because of his velocity (95.9 mph fastball from 2013-14), age and the durability he showed in 2014, throwing 199 2/3 innings.
A few more notes from around the AL East…
- Red Sox third base prospect Garin Cecchini isn’t worried about the team’s addition of Pablo Sandoval, he tells Peter Abraham of the Boston Globe. “I take it as a positive for my career,” Cecchini explains. “I get to hang out with a great player like that and work with him in spring training. That has to help me. It’s easy to say, ‘Where is my spot?’ but I can’t worry about that. You have to create your own opportunity.” Of course, creating that opportunity won’t be easy, barring an injury to Sandoval. And even in that instance, left fielder Hanley Ramirez could slide over to third base, as the Sox have tremendous outfield depth. Cecchini acknowledged to Abraham that a position change or trade could be the eventual outcome. “You hear that kind of stuff. But I don’t look too much into it. … I understand Pablo is in front of me but I hope I can do something to help.”
- The Blue Jays had two scouts watch Matt Albers‘ recent workout, tweets Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet. Albers turned down multiple offers to sign with the White Sox, according to Nicholson-Smith, though it’s not clear if Toronto was one of the teams to make an offer. Shortly after Albers signed, the Houston Chronicle’s Evan Drellich tweeted that Albers had offers from four teams besides the ChiSox.
- Nicholson-Smith also spoke with someone familiar with the arbitration process who estimated that the Blue Jays‘ win over Josh Donaldson in yesterday’s arbitration hearing may have saved the club upwards of $6MM over the next several winters, as each salary is based upon the previous year’s figure (Twitter link).
Josh Donaldson Loses Arbitration Hearing
FEB. 13: Donaldson has lost the hearing and will earn $4.3MM in 2015, according to Heyman (Twitter link).
FEB. 12: The Blue Jays and third baseman Josh Donaldson had an arbitration hearing today, reports Jon Heyman of CBS Sports (on Twitter). Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet tweets that a decision should be announced tomorrow, which was the case with the team’s previous arb hearing against fellow corner infielder and fellow MVP Sports Group client Danny Valencia. (Valencia won his hearing.)
Acquired from the Athletics in a blockbuster deal that sent third baseman Brett Lawrie and prospects Franklin Barreto, Sean Nolin and Kendall Graveman to Oakland, Donaldson is arbitration eligible for the first time this winter. The 29-year-old late bloomer has a compelling case in his first trip through arbitration, as he’s batted .277/.363/.477 with 53 homers for the A’s over the past two seasons. Those efforts have netted the former Cubs farmhand a fourth-place and an eighth-place finish in the past two MVP votings, respectively.
Donaldson, who was projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz to earn $4.5MM in 2015, filed for a $5.75MM salary, while the team countered at $4.3MM (as can be seen in MLBTR’s Arbitration Tracker). He’ll now earn either that $5.75MM figure or the $4.3MM figure, depending on which way an arbitration panel leans.
Donaldson is a Super Two player, meaning that he’ll be eligible for arbitration four times instead of the standard three. He’s under control through the 2018 season and will be arbitration eligible three more times.
D-Backs Avoid Arbitration With Addison Reed
The number of unsettled arbitration cases is rapidly winding down, but there are still a handful to be resolved. We’ll keep track of today’s minor settlements here, with all projections coming via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz…
- The Diamondbacks and closer Addison Reed have avoided arbitration by settling on a $4.875MM salary for the 2015 season, tweets Jon Heyman of CBS Sports. Reed, who can also earn up to $50K worth of incentives, did well to top his $3.8MM projection by a fairly wide margin. The 26-year-old saved 32 games in his first season with Arizona, but he also posted a 4.25 ERA in 59 1/3 innings of work. Reed’s strikeout rate (10.5 K/9) and walk rate (2.3 BB/9) are better than one would expect based on that ERA, but his extreme fly-ball tendencies did not play well at Chase Field. Reed’s 47.6 percent fly-ball rate was the 13th-highest in baseball among all relievers, and his 28.9 percent ground-ball rate was the third-lowest. His 13.9 percent homer-to-flyball ratio, while higher than average, wouldn’t necessarily be disastrous for all pitchers, but given the sheer volume of fly-balls surrendered by Reed, his ERA was significantly inflated. As MLBTR’s Arbitration Tracker shows, Reed had filed at $5.6MM against the team’s $4.7MM, so his ultimate salary was significantly closer to the club’s number than that of his camp.
Astros, Joe Thatcher Agree To Minor League Deal
The Astros and left-hander Joe Thatcher are in agreement on a minor league deal with an invitation to Spring Training, reports SB Nation’s Chris Cotillo (Twitter links). Thatcher, a client of Platinum Sports, will earn $1MM on the Major League side of the deal and can earn an additional $1.3MM worth of incentives. His contract also contains an opt-out five days before Opening Day.
The 33-year-old Thatcher split last season between the Diamondbacks and Angels, working to a combined 3.86 ERA with 27 strikeouts against four walks in 30 1/3 innings. The Angels acquired Thatcher (and center fielder Tony Campana) from the D-Backs in exchange for minor league outfielder Zach Borenstein and minor league righty Joey Krehbiel in early July. However, after just seven appearances with the Halos, Thatcher badly sprained his ankle and missed nearly six weeks of action. In total, he allowed six runs in 6 1/3 innings with the Angels, working primarily as a lefty specialist. (Only two of his Angels outings lasted a full inning.)
The .289/.317/.447 batting line that Thatcher surrendered to opposing lefties in 2014 wasn’t exactly encouraging, but it came in a small sample of 83 plate appearances. His overall body of work against lefty bats is far more useful, as he’s held same-handed hitters to a .230/.289/.351 triple-slash in 497 plate appearances.