Mets Notes: Niese, Alderson, Moncada
Jon Niese‘s name surfaced in trade rumors earlier this offseason, but the left-hander tells Kevin Kernan of the New York Post that he has been told he won’t be dealt. “They told me they didn’t want to move me,” Niese said, which is fine with him since he’s excited about the club’s young talent. The Mets have reportedly been shopping Dillon Gee, Bartolo Colon and Niese, though of that trio, Niese was the pitcher the team was least willing to deal since he’s the only lefty in the rotation and is controllable through 2018 (if the Mets exercise both of their options on his contract). Here are some more Amazin’ news items…
- GM Sandy Alderson discussed the positives of the Mets’ pitching surplus during a recent interview with Chris Russo of the MLB Network (hat tip to MLB.com’s Anthony DiComo). “Right now, we feel very good about the fact that we’re eight or nine deep going into the season,” Alderson said. “You always need extra starting pitching. Things will probably work themselves out during Spring Training. Hopefully we don’t have an injury. But we do have some flexibility in the ‘pen, so if somebody has to move to the ‘pen for a period of time, I think that would be acceptable to us.” Earlier this winter, Alderson said he intended to trade a starter prior to Spring Training, though this no longer appears to be the case.
- In a Q&A with season ticket holders on Wednesday, Alderson said the Mets are unlikely to pursue Yoan Moncada, Metsblog.com’s Matthew Cerrone writes. While the Mets have scouted Moncada and “we like him,” Alderson notes that the financial commitment required to sign Moncada would essentially prohibit them from the international market for the next two years. “From my standpoint, it’s a little like the stock market. Do you want to go all in on Shake Shack? Or, do you want to invest in a mutual fund that gives you a little more diversity and a little more spread over time,” Alderson asked. “I think our goal here is that we invest at least somewhat efficiently, but also spread it out so we give ourselves the best chance to succeed.”
- The Mets’ offseason has been underwhelming, Joel Sherman of the New York Post opines, as he feels even a modest $20MM payroll increase could’ve helped address several uncertain positions on the team. Sherman notes that David Wright‘s struggles in 2014 could have a major impact on the Mets’ willingness to spend, as management could be more hesitant about signing major contracts if Wright continues to under-perform over the course of his extension.
Players Avoiding Arbitration: Thursday
There are still nearly 30 players whose arbitration cases need to be settled, and as our Arbitration Tracker shows, the Royals (four remaining cases) and Pirates (three) have the most work ahead of them. We’ll run down today’s minor arbitration settlements here, with all projections coming courtesy of MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz…
- The Cubs and right-hander Pedro Strop avoided a hearing by agreeing to a one-year, $2.525MM deal, CBS Sports’ Jon Heyman reports (Twitter link). The agreement falls slightly above both Swartz’s $2.4MM projection and the midpoint between the Cubs’ $2MM offer and Strop’s $3MM counter. Strop was the last of the Cubs’ eight arbitration-eligible players to agree to a contract for 2015. This is the second of four arb years for Strop as a Super Two player. The Legacy Agency client has pitched very well since coming to Chicago in July 2013, and Strop posted a 2.21 ERA, 10.5 K/9 and 2.84 K/BB rate over 61 relief innings last season.
Phillies Notes: Cashner, Montgomery, Nola
Phillies GM Ruben Amaro “covets” Padres righty Andrew Cashner, according to Yahoo Sports’ Jeff Passan (via Twitter). San Diego has been rumored to be one of the teams looking at a trade for Cole Hamels, so it’s fair to speculate that Cashner’s name has probably come up in discussions between the two teams. The Padres were reportedly open to offers for Cashner, Ian Kennedy and Tyson Ross earlier this winter if one of those starters would bring back a top hitter in return, though the Friars subsequently added several significant lineup pieces without giving up any of their rotation-heading trio. Passan notes that the Padres aren’t one of the teams on Hamels’ no-trade list.
Here’s some more from the City of Brotherly Love…
- Phillies chairman David Montgomery gave Amaro a vote of confidence in an interview on MLB Network Radio on Sirius XM (hat tip to MLB.com’s Todd Zolecki), calling Amaro “a pretty quality guy in that [GM] role.” Amaro is entering the last year of his contract with the team, and the Phillies’ ownership group as a whole is “looking at this closely as well” to determine if Amaro will continue in Philadelphia. “If Pat [Gillick] spends an entire year or two close with Ruben, I think he’ll have a very good idea to how effective Ruben is, and collectively a decision will be made,” Montgomery said.
- Aaron Nola won’t be invited to the Phillies’ Major League Spring Training camp, Amaro tells CSNPhilly.com’s Jim Salisbury. “He’s not one of those kids that we need to see mature or develop mentally. We think that he’s got other things he needs to work on on the field, other parts of the game that he needs to continue to work on,” Amaro said. “He’ll get into minor-league camp and get into the program there and it will be good for him and when he’s ready to come to the big leagues, he’ll come to the big leagues.” Nola, the seventh overall pick of the 2014 draft, is projected to begin the season at Double-A and Amaro didn’t rule out that the righty could reach the bigs in 2015, calling Nola “a fast-track guy and there’s a reason why.”
- From that same piece, Amaro also expressed confidence in Jesse Biddle, whose stock as a top-100 prospect dropped after a rough 2014 season. Biddle received an invite to the big league Spring Training camp, though Amaro said that the southpaw will eventually be sent to the minors camp and “likely in Double-A” to start the season.
NL Notes: Toussaint, Castillo, Wood, Minor, Kendrick
Diamondbacks right-hander Touki Toussaint, the No. 16 overall pick in the 2014 draft, has hired Rick Thurman and Nate Heisler of the Beverly Hills Sports Council as his new agents, reports Jon Heyman of CBS Sports (via Twitter). The 18-year-old struggled greatly in his pro debut last year but still ranked as the D-Backs’ No. 5 prospect, per Baseball America and Fangraphs, and No. 98 overall in the game, per MLB.com. Toussaint’s change has been reflected in the MLBTR Agency Database, which contains agent information for more than 2,000 Major League and Minor League players. Agents, if you see any errors or omissions, please let us know via email: mlbtrdatabase@gmail.com.
Here are some more notes from around the Senior Circuit…
- David Kaplan of CSNChicago.com expects the Cubs to move Welington Castillo and possibly Travis Wood before the team heads to Arizona for Spring Training (Twitter link). The Phillies are one of multiple teams that have shown interest, according to Kaplan. Castillo has been displaced as a starter with the addition of Miguel Montero, and the team has also added David Ross as a backup option as well. Wood figures to battle for the team’s fifth starter spot, as Jon Lester, Jake Arrieta, Jason Hammel and Kyle Hendricks are the likely front four in the rotation. The Cubs also have Tsuyoshi Wada and Felix Doubront as options for the fifth spot.
- Mike Minor and the Braves have an arbitration hearing set for Feb. 19, tweets David O’Brien of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution. That’s just one day before pitchers and catchers are slated to report to Spring Training. Minor filed for a $5.6MM salary, while the team countered at $5.1MM, as can be seen in MLBTR’s Arbitration Tracker.
- Kyle Kendrick tells Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post that he had interest from multiple teams before signing with the Rockies. Though it’s clearly not a favorable environment for a pitcher, Kendrick praised the Rockies’ offense and defense as reasons to sign with the team.
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Red Sox Sign Wade Miley To Three-Year Deal
The Red Sox and left-hander Wade Miley will never have to worry about arbitration, as his agents at O’Connell Sports Management have announced a three-year, $19.25MM contract extension that buys out all of his arbitration years (Twitter link). The Red Sox have announced the deal as well, which reportedly contains a club option for a fourth season.
The 28-year-old Miley, acquired from the Diamondbacks at the Winter Meetings in exchange for right-handers Rubby De La Rosa and Allen Webster, had been projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz to earn $4.3MM in his first trip through arbitration this winter. He will reportedly receive a $500K signing bonus before earning $3.5MM in 2015, $6MM in 2016 and $8.75MM in 2017. His option is valued at $12MM and comes with a $500K buyout. Additionally, his deal contains $2MM worth of incentives that can boost the option’s value to $14MM. All told, Miley can earn up to $31MM over the next four years, if he reaches his incentives and the Red Sox exercise the option.
Formerly the No. 43 overall pick in the draft out of Southeastern Louisiana University, Miley first established himself as a rotation mainstay in the 2012 season, when he finished second to Bryce Harper in the NL Rookie of the Year voting. Since claiming a place in the D-Backs’ rotation, Miley has pitched to a 3.74 ERA with 7.1 K/9, 2.7 BB/9 and a 48.6 percent ground-ball rate. He’s also been exceptionally durable in that time, averaging an even 200 innings over the past three seasons.
By agreeing to the deal, Miley’s agents have secured him his first fortune in baseball without drastically delaying his free agency, whereas the Red Sox have received cost certainty that keeps Miley’s price tag reasonable even in the event of a breakout season. Miley will be eligible to hit free agency entering either his age-31 (if the option is declined) or age-32 season (if it exercised), which should present him with the opportunity to earn at least one more significant payday on top of this sum.
The structure of Miley’s deal is rare, though certainly not unheard of among players in his service class, as can be seen in MLBTR’s Extension Tracker. As the linked list shows, the most recent examples of such a structure include Chris Iannetta and Nick Hundley, but to find a pitcher who signed a three-year deal with a club option in his first year of arbitration eligibility, we have to go back to 2009, when Paul Maholm did so with the Pirates.
Miley will be counted on, along with newcomer Rick Porcello and the returning Justin Masterson, to help reshape a Red Sox rotation that will also feature Clay Buchholz and Joe Kelly. That quintet, backed by a remade offense that includes the likes of Pablo Sandoval, Hanley Ramirez and Rusney Castillo, will be tasked with reversing the fortunes of a 2014 club that followed up a World Series victory with a last-place finish in the AL East.
The Boston Glober’s Alex Speier first reported that the contract included a club option (Twitter link). Bob Nightengale of USA Today provided the financial breakdown (on Twitter).
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Not So Minor Moves: A Closer Look At Minor League Deals
So often lost in much of the offseason discussion of $200MM+ contracts for the market’s top free agents and the drama of big names that linger on the open market too long is the slew of minor league signings that steadily trickle in from November through the end of Spring Training. To readers and writers alike, these transactions often become a footnote; at best, such transactions may capture our attention for a brief moment before the next major name signs or is rumored to be on the move. It’s easy, then, to overlook the amount of work that goes into such moves — unless, of course, you’re the agent negotiating the deal.
“Minor league deals are a lot of work,” agent Josh Kusnick said to MLBTR. “They’re not always easy to do. Some come together more quickly than others. There have been times in my career where a ball club will call me the minute free agency starts… They’ll make their offer, it’ll make sense, and then it’s done. But there are other situations where it’s dragged on for an entire year.”
As is the case with big league free agents, minor league free agents that linger on the open market into the New Year and late January can often find themselves facing uphill battles. In the case of veterans such as Gerald Laird, Wil Nieves and other recent players to sign minor league pacts, there will still be teams that are interested based on their Major League track record. However, that’s not always the case with less experienced players. Finding deals for players with limited (or zero) Major League experience becomes increasingly difficult as the winter wears on, and that problem can be even more complicated if the player is Latin American, as the process to secure a visa for those players is lengthy and can cause some clubs to shy away as Spring Training nears.
“It’s much easier to sign players with residency,” agent Rafael Godoy told MLBTR. Godoy, who primarily represents Latin American players, noted that some — particularly those with significant MLB experience — are desirable enough and get enough early interest that the timeline to get a visa isn’t problematic. However, due to the early age at which players from Venezuela and the Dominican Republic can sign, many become free agents at age-22 or age-23 without any Major League experience. If early interest in those players isn’t strong, their lack of experience and the length of the visa process can increase the difficulty of finding a good opportunity.
“You don’t really want to wait until the new year to get them all done,” said Godoy. Acquiring visas for players from Latin American countries requires a lot of paperwork and legwork, he explained. Teams will have to make appointments with the consulate in that player’s home country, account for constantly changing immigration rules and wait for a visa approval process following a meeting/interview in the foreign country. Even if a player has his passport and documentation in order, Godoy added, visas can be denied for a variety of reasons, delaying a player’s ability to arrive at camp on time. (Indeed, stories of players who are late to camp due to visa issues seem to permeate Spring Training each season.) Because of the length of the process, some teams will becoming increasingly reluctant to go down that road as Spring Training nears.
The potential for such delays is one reason that some teams will be less willing to embark on the visa journey as Spring Training nears. One agent told MLBTR that he’d once been informed by a team that he was fortunate his client had established U.S. citizenship over the course of his pro career, because they likely wouldn’t have given a look to a player that still needed a visa that late in the offseason.
Of course, an invitation to Major League Spring Training isn’t always a requirement. It may, sometimes, even be overrated, per one agent. Some teams give out Spring Training invites “like candy,” he continued, which will often result in a player getting demoted to minor league camp at the first or second cut.
Additional sticking points include opt-out clauses and, of course, money — be it monthly salary in the minors or the size of the Major League salary, should that player reach the bigs. Indeed, Kusnick said, in his experience, money is typically the determining factor. “The money, the guaranteed salary, that’s usually the part that’s the trickiest,” said Kusnick. Sometimes, he notes, the most money isn’t necessarily the best thing. “I’ve advised [minor league free agents] to take less money to go to a better situation,” said Kusnick, noting that a good opportunity to make a big league club can outweigh a better minor league payday. “No one wants to get rich in the minor leagues. They want to be big leaguers.”
Finding the right balance of guaranteed money and opportunity to make the big league roster is a difficult task, and there’s no guarantee that a player will listen to his agent’s advice in such situations. “Ultimately, it’s the player’s decision where he wants to play,” said one agent who has had clients return to familiar situations in the past despite better opportunities to make a Major League roster elsewhere. At that point, the agent said, Spring Training essentially becomes “a tryout” or audition of sorts… for the other 29 teams in the Majors, that is. In those situations, opt-out clauses for players with significant MLB service time become paramount, and refusal to include them (or only conceding an opt-out late in the regular season) is often a deal-breaker, even at the cost of a significant minor league salary.
However many complications an agent may encounter in seeking a non-guaranteed deal for his or her client, they all pale in comparison to the realization that a player simply will not find an opportunity with an affiliated club. Yet another agent described one unenviable task as the worst part about being an agent — having to sit a player down and tell him that teams simply aren’t interested anymore. “I try to be as straightforward and honest about it as I can,” he said, noting that not all players handle such devastating news as well as others.
Still, on the flip side of the equation, there are few moments that stick with agents quite like seeing a client successfully revive his career. Kusnick was elated by the resurgence of Jeremy Jeffress with the Brewers in the season’s final months. Kusnick recalls pitching a return to Milwaukee to Jeffress: “I said, ‘Can you imagine going back to Milwaukee, pitching down the stretch, fighting for a playoff spot, and 50,000 fans cheering for you after all you’ve been through?'” Jeffress not only resurfaced with the Brewers but thrived, and Kusnick called a dramatic eighth-inning strikeout of Buster Posey with the game on the line “the affirmation of everything that we could never have dreamed of when he took that job … the coolest moment of my career, by far.”
Marlins Win Arbitration Hearing Against Mat Latos
The Marlins have won their arbitration hearing against newly-acquired righty Mat Latos, ESPN.com’s Jerry Crasnick was first to report (Twitter link). Latos had filed at $10.4MM but will instead receive the $9.4MM that Miami submitted.
Though he will not achieve his full asking price, Latos nevertheless receives a nice bump up over last year’s $7.25MM salary, which constituted the second-year of an extension signed with the Reds. He also lands a healthy margin above the MLBTR/Matt Swartz projection of $8.4MM.
All said, though the panel chose to go with the lower figure, Latos was obviously well-rewarded for a half-season of work last year. The 27-year-old missed time early and only made 16 starts, though he logged a healthy 102 1/3 frames in the process. That matched the pace he had set in the prior two seasons, when he notched better than 200 frames in over thirty outings.
Latos has produced uniformly excellent results. Over the last three seasons, he has not strayed from the 3.16 to 3.48 ERA range over a full season. While his strikeout totals dipped last year to 6.5 K/9, he held the free passes down to a career-low 2.3 per nine.
Pitching Market Notes: Papelbon, Hamels, Padres
The remaining free agent market is dominated by arms, and pitchers probably also carry the most intrigue in trade as well. Here’s the latest on some important situations percolating around the game:
- The Brewers feel they have ample leverage against the Phillies in trade talks for Jonathan Papelbon, writes Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel (Twitter links). Milwaukee believes that it is the primary team with interest, and yesterday’s addition of Chris Perez reduces the urgency to add another late-inning righty.
- Fellow Phillies veteran Cole Hamels should be traded now to maximize his value, according to ESPN.com’s Buster Olney (Insider link). Rival executives tell Olney they believe the Phils should have moved Hamels at last year’s trade deadline, and suggest that the team will have to budge on either the amount of money the team will kick in or the quality of the prospects it will receive. Of course, the Philadelphia brass has understandably rejected the idea in the past that it should lower the ask on Hamels, but it is fair to wonder at what point that attempt to maximize value could harm its own objective.
- The Padres have often been mentioned as a possible destination for the best starters that remain available, and executive chairman Ron Fowler did nothing to dampen the rumors in comments today to Dennis Lin of the San Diego Union-Tribune. Fowler explained that the club’s payroll could climb above $100MM, saying that “with A.J. [Preller] in the GM seat, things could change quickly” as “he continues to look at options to strengthen the team.” Fowler continued: “The front-loading of the Dodgers’ payment for [Matt] Kemp allowed us to be more aggressive regarding [Justin] Upton and continue to look at other opportunities.”
Few MLB Deals Remain To Be Signed In Free Agency
Last year, between the beginning of February and end of March, twenty players signed guaranteed major league deals. Most of these were not among the very largest free agent contracts signed that offseason, but five were worth over $10MM and five came with multi-year commitments.
That does not appear to be the case this time around. Perhaps because there was no second Masahiro Tanaka saga to whistle a time out on signings — Yoan Moncada, exciting as he may be, will not be going straight into a big league lineup — the market has not waited around.
Looking at the remaining un-signed free agents, who are of course led by James Shields, it is difficult to see a large number of MLB deals being awarded. Excepting Shields, the one truly premium player left to choose a team, the pickings are fairly slim for clubs aiming to do more than add depth.
It would be rather surprising if any of Francisco Rodriguez, Rafael Soriano, Burke Badenhop, and Joba Chamberlain fail to secure a big league pact. Several of those right-handed relievers ought still to have a chance at multiple years, too. With the deals signed by similarly-situated rehabbing pitchers, Brandon Beachy still ought to command a 40-man spot. Newly-minted free agent Dayan Viciedo should see enough to demand as well, and Cuban middle infielder Hector Olivera seems destined to get big league money, although he is still not technically a free agent.
Beyond that, however, it does not seem that there are any locks to get a big league commitment. Among pitchers, Chris Young got strong results last year, but he is 36 and had less promising peripherals. Much the same is true of southpaw Joe Beimel. Back-of-the-rotation stalwarts Kevin Correia and Roberto Hernandez had their struggles last year and are reaching their mid-30’s.
On the position player side, Scott Hairston has just not put up passable numbers as a bench bat over the past two seasons. Everth Cabrera and Rickie Weeks still present talent up the middle, but each has various (and varying) issues that limit their appeal. Eric Young swiped 30 bags again last year, but had a .610 OPS.
To be sure, several of the players just noted will end up signing MLB contracts. All it takes is two competing clubs with need and reasonably available roster spots. And perhaps a few guys will lose jobs with one team but sign big league pacts with another (a la Kevin Frandsen last year).
But my money says that there will be significantly fewer big league signings this February and March than there were in 2014 — perhaps even half or less of last year’s twenty. And we are highly unlikely to see the same kind of value and length of contract that we did the spring prior.
Of course, that does not mean that you should tune out from MLBTR over the coming months. Quite the contrary: there remain several intriguing trade scenarios around the league, and don’t forget that extension season is just getting ready to kick into action.

