Latest On Johan Santana: Timetable, Twins, Mets
Still in the midst of recovering from his second major shoulder surgery, one-time Twins and Mets ace Johan Santana could still be half-a-year away from taking the hill in a major league game, Mike Berardino of the St. Paul Pioneer-Press reports. Discussing Santana at the Twins' winter fan event yesterday, Minnesota GM Terry Ryan said that Santana will "be held back" and "won't be ready to go probably … [until] the summer at some point."
That does not mean, however, that the Twins and other clubs are not keeping an eye on the 34-year-old southpaw. "We do have some interest in him," said Ryan. "Whether or not he wants to sign with us will be up to him." Ryan said that Santana "would be a good fit" for a Twins organization that made three significant free agent rotation additions over the offseason.
Meanwhile, a return by Santana to his more recent home — the Mets — does not appear to be in the cards. As Andy Martino of the New York Daily News reports, with Daisuke Matsuzaka and John Lannan now added to the club's fifth-starter competition, Santana's time in Queens is now all but certainly over.
Though he never again dominated at his 2004-2006 levels, the Venezuelan native remained quite valuable over his first three years in New York, authoring a 2.85 ERA over an even 600 innings between 2008 and 2010. Over the final three years of his $137.5MM deal, however, Santana threw only 117 innings of 4.85 ERA ball. Unsurprisingly, the Mets declined their $25MM option for Santana's services for the 2014 season, instead paying him a $5.5MM buyout.
Santana figures to be available on a minor league deal given the extent of his injury issues, though the Grady Sizemore signing suggests that a guaranteed deal is not an impossibility. At a minimum, the changeup artist will surely draw plenty of interested onlookers when he decides to audition. After all, it was only two summers back that Santana — returning from his first shoulder surgery — no-hit a potent Cardinals lineup and ended the month of June with a 2.76 ERA over 98 innings (only to see things fall apart thereafter).
Masterson, Indians Put Extension Talks On Hold
Pitcher Justin Masterson and the Indians appear to have "shelved" discussions of a long-term contract extension, reports Paul Hoynes of the Cleveland Plain Dealer. For the time being, at least, the sides will instead focus on dealing with Masterson's arbitration case.
Hoynes reported about two weeks back that player and club were set to negotiate a long-term deal. While both sides are said to be interested in a new contract, Hoynes says that "talks have gained little, if any, traction." Today's news echoes another recent report, from MLB.com's Jordan Bastian, that discussions to date have failed to produce momentum.
Of course, the two parties still have plenty of work left to do on reaching a salary for 2014. Masterson filed at $11.8MM, with the team countering at $8.05MM. The resulting $3.75MM gap is the largest in absolute terms of any of the year's arbitration cases, leaving both sides facing a high-stakes hearing if a settlement cannot be hammered out. Spanning that gulf could be tricky, and GM Chris Antonetti has indicated that Masterson's case (or that of one of his teammates) could go to a hearing. Masterson's hearing is scheduled for February 20th, Bastian tweets, which does leave plenty of time to find a compromise.
Masterson, a 6'6" righty who turns 29 in March, has logged four straight seasons of at least 180 innings for Cleveland. Though he has posted middling earned run averages over two of those campaigns (4.70 in 2010 and 4.93 in 2012), his other two tallies are those of a top-of-the-rotation starter (3.21 in 2011 and 3.45 in 2013). In the aggregate, he was worth 11.7 fWAR in the 2010-13 span, placing him among the top thirty starters in the game during that stretch. MLBTR's Tim Dierkes has pegged Masterson's extension value in the range of $65MM to $85MM over a five year term.
Minor Moves: Chris Leroux, Pete Orr, Blake Davis
Here are today's minor moves and outright assignments from around the league…
- 29-year-old righty Chris Leroux has inked a minor league deal with the Yankees, tweets Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet.ca. The Canadian hurler has 69 2/3 MLB innings under his belt, all in relief, over which he has maintained a 5.56 ERA and 8.1 K/9 against 4.3 BB/9.
- The Brewers announced that they've signed infielder Pete Orr to a minor league contract. Orr's deal does not contain an invite to Major League Spring Training, but he will report with the rest of the Major Leaguers and invitees on day one of camp, MLBTR has learned. The versatile 34-year-old has appeared in the Majors with the Phillies in each of the past three seasons and has a career .269/.321/.395 slash line at Triple-A. Orr can play shortstop, second base, third base and both corner outfield positions.
- MLBTR's Tim Dierkes reports (via Twitter) that shortstop Blake Davis has inked a minor league deal with the Pirates. Now 30 years of age, Davis was a fourth-round selection of the Orioles in the 2006 draft and got a taste of the Majors in 2011 with Baltimore, batting .254/.323/.390 in 65 plate appearances. He spent 2013 with the Brewers' Triple-A affiliate, where he slashed .256/.297/.352 in 357 PAs.
Indians Sign Elliot Johnson
The Indians have signed infielder Elliot Johnson to a minor league deal with an invitation to Spring Training, according to Jordan Bastian of MLB.com (Twitter link). Chris Cotillo of MLB Daily Dish first connected the Indians to the ACES client yesterday (also on Twitter).
Johnson, 29, was acquired by the Royals as a player to be named later in the blockbuster James Shields-for-Wil Myers trade last offseason. He batted just .179/.218/.241 in 173 plate appearances with Kansas City before finding himself designated for assignment and claimed off waivers by the Braves. Johnson improved at the plate in Atlanta, hitting a more respectable .261/.317/.359 in 102 PAs. He also offers plus speed, as evidenced by his 22 stolen bases in 24 attempts in 2013.
Johnson's best asset is his ability to handle both up-the-middle positions. Ultimate Zone Rating thinks highly of his glove at second base (+7.9 UZR/150), while grading his shortstop defense as passable, though slightly below average (-2.7). Defensive Runs Saved pegs him at +13 in 602 innings at second base and +3 in 1079 innings at short.
While Ryan Raburn is one option to occasionally back up second baseman Jason Kipnis, he saw just 17 innings there last season and is better suited to play right field. Mike Aviles presents another option to back up Kipnis as well as shortstop Asdrubal Cabrera, but Johnson could fight his way into the mix for a utility spot.
Free Agent Faceoff: Ervin Santana Vs. Ubaldo Jimenez
Now that both Masahiro Tanaka and Matt Garza are off the market, Ervin Santana and Ubaldo Jimenez are widely considered the top two starters in free agency. Some may argue in favor of Bronson Arroyo as well, but given the lack of draft pick compensation and his age relative to Santana and Jimenez, Arroyo figures to have a different market than the pair of early-30s Dominican right-handers.
Santana turned 31 in December and enjoyed an excellent rebound campaign with Royals in 2013 after he was acquired in a salary dump trade with the Angels. Similarly, Jimenez, who turned 30 last week, rebounded from a disastrous 18-month stretch that saw him post an ERA north of 5.00 and caused many fans around the game label him a lost cause.
Jimenez is more of a strikeout pitcher than Santana but also comes with worse control, as reflected in his 9.6 K/9 and 3.9 BB/9 rates in 2013. While he was once an extreme ground-ball pitcher, Jimenez turned in a slightly below-league-average mark of 43.9 percent in 2013 (44.5 percent was average). Santana, meanwhile, relied on pristine command but picked up strike three far less often than Jimenez. He averaged nearly three full strikeouts fewer than Jimenez on a per-nine-inning basis (6.9) but walked just 2.2 hitters per nine. His ground-ball rate has trended upward over the past three seasons, culminating in a career-best 46.2 percent in 2013.
However, the pair shares some similarities as well. For one, Santana and Jimenez have displayed durability, averaging 200 and 198 innings per season, respectively, dating back to 2008. And, despite the different ways in which they've prevented runs, they've done so at nearly an identical rate. Dating back to that same 2008 season, Jimenez's 3.90 ERA is just a hair lower than Santana's 3.93 ERA. Both have experienced significant swings in that time, and that inconsistency has played a part in the fact that they remain on the free agent market on Jan. 27.
Also playing a part has been the lengthy Tanaka saga and the fact that each hurler will require forfeiture of a draft pick. Despite strong rebound campaigns for each, neither pitcher has seen his market develop much. That figures to change in the next month, and the debate among pundits as to which pitcher is the better investment for a team in need of pitching will likely produce arguments for both sides. With all that said, let's see what the MLBTR readership has to say about this pair of high-upside but relatively inconsistent pitchers.
Which Pitcher Would You Rather Sign?
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Ubaldo Jimenez 52% (11,658)
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Ervin Santana 48% (10,872)
Total votes: 22,530
Rays Sign Grant Balfour
JAN. 27: Joel Sherman of the New York Post tweets some more specifics on the breakdown of Balfour's contract. Balfour's $5MM in 2014 will come in the form of a $1MM signing bonus and a $4MM salary. He will receive an additional $500K if traded, and $2MM is deferred in each year of his contract.
JAN. 23, 6:00pm: Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times reports that Balfour will earn $5MM in 2014 and $7MM in 2015 (Twitter link).
3:19pm: The Rays have officially signed reliever Grant Balfour to a two-year, $12MM deal. Balfour returns to the organization with which he had both his best (2008, 1.54 ERA) and worst (2009, 4.81 ERA) seasons as a big leaguer.
Of course, the ACES client had an earlier agreement in place with the Orioles for two years and $15MM, which was blown up when Baltimore found issues with the reliever's physical. The Aussie will nevertheless throw in the AL East after agreeing to terms with Tampa. (It is worth noting that the Rays' team doctor was one of those who said there were no issues with Balfour's right shoulder, though the Orioles apparently had different reasons for concern with the medicals.)
As MLBTR's Steve Adams wrote in profiling Balfour earlier in the offseason, the righty struck out batters at an impressive rate of 10.8 K/9 in 2013. Though the 36-year-old's fastball velocity has dipped since he worked around the 95 mph mark in his excellent 2008 season with Tampa, he still brings his heater at above 93 mph on average.
Ultimately, since a tough 2009, Balfour has been outstanding at keeping opposing runners from crossing the plate. Over the 2010-13 seasons, Balfour has maintained a 2.47 ERA in 254 2/3 innings, with an average of 9.2 K/9 against 3.3 BB/9. He has been a model of consistency over that time frame as well, as his ERA has not strayed above the 2.59 mark.
Balfour faced a tough market situation even before his ill-fated pact with Baltimore. With several other big-name, late-inning relievers on the market, it was clear early on that some good arms would be left unable to max out their earnings. As the list of free agent closers shows (via MLBTR's Free Agent Tracker), Balfour slots in between the two-year deals of Joaquin Benoit ($15.5MM from the Padres) and Edward Mujica ($9.5MM from the Red Sox). Interestingly, he falls well shy of the $19MM guarantee handed by the Dodgers to Brian Wilson, who only threw 19 2/3 innings last year (including the post-season) after missing almost all of 2012-13 due to Tommy John surgery.
Andrew Rickli of SportsReel Boston first reported the deal (via Twitter). Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times first tweeted the final contract terms, while Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports first tweeted that the deal was expected to land in the two-year, $12MM range.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Reds Nearing Deal With Chris Nelson
The Reds are nearing a contract with infielder Chris Nelson, according to ESPN's Jerry Crasnick (on Twitter). The Williams & Connolly client split last season between the Rockies, Yankees and Angels.
The 28-year-old Nelson is a former No. 9 overall pick (by the Rockies in 2004) but hasn't displayed that pedigree at the Major League level to this point. Nelson is a career .268/.312/.399 hitter and has experience at both second base and third base, though defensive metrics such as UZR and DRS are down on his work at each position.
Nelson's best season came with the Rox in 2012 when he slashed .301/.352/.458 in 377 plate appearances, but that line was propped up by a .374 batting average on balls in play that was predictably not sustainable. Nelson saw his strikeout rate climb to 29 percent in 2013, and with the drop in BABIP (down to .313), the result was a combined .227/.273/.327 batting line in 227 PAs.
Rockies To Sign Paul Janish
The Rockies will sign shortstop Paul Janish to a minor league deal with an invitation to Spring Training, according to Jon Heyman of CBS Sports (on Twitter). Janish is a client of Moye Sports Associates.
Janish, 31, is the epitome of a glove-first player, as evidenced by the fact that he appeared in 52 games with the Braves in 2013 but received just 45 plate appearances. Janish batted .171/.222/.220 in that small sample and is a career .214/.284/.288 batter in 1206 PAs between the Reds and Braves. His defense is his calling card; in 2403 career innings at shortstop he's posted a +10.1 UZR/150, and Defensive Runs Saved has pegged him at +23 in that time.
West Notes: Darvish, Ubaldo, Hart, Fielder
Last night, the L.A. Times' Dylan Hernandez elaborated on reports that Michael Young is said to be weighing retirement, noting that if Young played in 2014, it can be considered a "safe bet" that it will be for the Dodgers. Young has been connected to a number of teams thus far, but to this point, there's yet to be a concrete indication as to whether or not he will play next season. Here's more out of baseball's Western divisions…
- Rangers GM Jon Daniels said over the weekend at the team's fan fest that he would approach ace Yu Darvish about an extension "at the right time," writes ESPNDallas.com's Richard Durrett. Daniels pointed out that Darvish is controlled for four more years, so there's no urgency in getting a new deal worked out. The team's current focus is on getting Darvish, who was unsurprisingly announced as the Opening Day starter, ready to make 33 starts in 2014. As Durrett reminds, Darvish's contract allows him to opt out of the final year if he wins a Cy Young or finishes No. 2-4 in the voting twice from now through 2016.
- Troy Renck of the Denver Post has still not heard of any interest from the Rockies in terms of a potential reunion with Ubaldo Jimenez (Sulia link). The relationship between the two sides ended poorly, says Renck, and it wouldn't make sense on Jimenez's behalf to spend the bulk of his career pitching at an altitude.
- Bob Dutton of the Tacoma News Tribune writes that the Mariners are comfortable using a rotation of Corey Hart, Justin Smoak and Logan Morrison at first base and DH, with Hart eventually getting more time in the outfield as his surgically repaired knees recover. Hart has been doing simulated ground-balls to work on his footwork and agility but has not yet progressed to taking fly-balls, he said at the Mariners' fan fest this weekend. The presence of all three first base/DH-type players led to trade speculation earlier in the offseason.
- Gerry Fraley of the Dallas Morning News writes that Prince Fielder will hit third ahead of Adrian Beltre in next year's Rangers lineup — a concept that caused Beltre to boldly proclaim that Fielder will win the American League MVP award. Though he's usually been the one in the No. 4 spot (behind Ryan Braun and Miguel Cabrera), Fielder said he's excited to hit in front of Beltre. New leadoff man Shin-Soo Choo's robust on-base percentage figures to help Fielder's counting stats as well, Fraley points out.
Quick Hits: Yankees, Santana, White Sox, Phillies
Even after the addition of Masahiro Tanaka, the Yankees' rotation is third-best in the AL East, behind the Rays and Red Sox, writes Scott Lauber of the Boston Herald. The Yankees' rotation lacks depth, Lauber writes, while the Rays have David Price (at least for now) and a strong collection of young pitchers, and the Red Sox have plenty of solid starters to back up Jon Lester and Clay Buchholz. Here are more notes from around the big leagues.
- Eight teams, including the Rockies, Orioles, Mariners, Yankees and Dodgers, have interest in Ervin Santana, Chris Cotillo of MLB Daily Dish writes. (Earlier today, Mariners GM Jack Zduriencik seemed to imply the Mariners would not be heavily involved on Santana.) Other teams could enter the picture as well. The Cubs also asked about Santana, but draft-pick forfeiture is a problem for them, even though their first pick is protected.
- The White Sox will meet with pitchers Texas high school pitcher Tyler Kolek, Vanderbilt pitcher Tyler Beede, and and California high school shortstop Jacob Gatewood as they prepare to pick third overall in the June draft, MLB.com's Scott Merkin writes. White Sox amateur scouting director Doug Laumann says, unsurprisingly, that he does not expect Carlos Rodon to fall to the White Sox at No. 3. They've already met with Rodon, East Carolina pitcher Jeff Hoffman and NC State shortstop Trea Turner.
- In the abstract, it might seem like the Phillies should rebuild from the ground up, but their situation is actually more complex than that, Brad Johnson of FanGraphs writes. Rebuilding efforts can fail, and memories of a streak of mostly poor play from 1987 through 2000 linger in the minds of Phillies fans, who Johnson says aren't a patient bunch. And even if the Phillies sold some of their big contracts, they would still have plenty of payroll obligations. Given the situation they've gotten themselves into, Johnson argues, simply trying not to lose too much might be the best strategy for them this year.
- Michael Young hasn't decided whether he will play in 2014, but if he does, it will be for the Dodgers, Dylan Hernandez of the Los Angeles Times tweets. A report earlier this month indicated that Young was thinking about retiring.