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Mets, Giants Have Discussed Michael Conforto

By Anthony Franco | July 26, 2024 at 8:47pm CDT

The Mets have been in contact with the Giants regarding Michael Conforto, reports Mike Puma of the New York Post (X link). The Post’s Jon Heyman wrote last night that the Mets were looking into the outfield market and preferred to add a left-handed hitter.

There aren’t many obvious options on that front. The Marlins are likely to deal center fielder Jazz Chisholm Jr., but a trade with the Mets could be complicated by the division factor. The Nationals probably wouldn’t have any qualms about dealing impending free agent Jesse Winker within the NL East. Beyond that duo, the Giants might have the top pair of trade candidates among lefty-hitting outfielders in Conforto and Mike Yastrzemski.

Of course, the Mets are plenty familiar with Conforto. A former 10th overall pick, he hit .255/.356/.468 through parts of seven seasons with the team. Conforto represented the Mets in the 2017 All-Star Game and was one of the better hitters in the league between 2017-20. His production dipped in his ’21 platform season. The Mets allowed him to walk in free agency after he declined a qualifying offer. Conforto injured his shoulder while working out that offseason. He underwent surgery and missed the entire 2022 campaign. He landed in San Francisco on a two-year, $36MM free agent pact the next winter.

Conforto hasn’t recaptured his peak offensive form coming back from the injury. He has been an unexceptional hitter over his season and a half in the Bay Area. He turned in a .239/.334/.384 slash through 470 plate appearances a year ago. It’s a similar story in 2024. Conforto carries a .226/.298/.415 batting line through 80 contests. His 9% walk rate is his lowest in any full season of his career. He’s striking out at a customary 24.1% clip.

The 31-year-old has had a slight rebound in his hard contact rate and power production. He’s slugging above .400 for the first time in four years and has 10 homers across 299 plate appearances — the equivalent of a half-season of action. That uptick in power has come with a career-low OBP, however. Conforto’s overall offense is again almost exactly league average, as measured by wRC+. That’s on par with what he produced in his final season in Queens and his first year in San Francisco.

Conforto is playing this year on an $18MM salary, nearly $6.3MM of which is still to be paid out. It’s not likely that other teams would take the full freight. Not only has Conforto’s overall production been middling, he has been in a funk of late. He carried a .280/.331/.490 slash into June but owns a .165/.261/.331 line over his most recent 145 plate appearances.

The Giants may need to kick in money and accept a minimal prospect return if they’re going to move him in the next few days. The Mets are paying a 110% fee on any salary they take. Absorbing all of Conforto’s remaining money would cost them upwards of $13MM including luxury taxes. That’s probably not appealing even to an organization that has leveraged its financial might to take on a couple struggling relievers, Phil Maton and Ryne Stanek, this month.

San Francisco has dropped six of its last 10 and fallen six games below .500. They’re 5.5 games back of the Padres for the last Wild Card spot with five additional teams to pass in the standings. Their mediocre play coming out of the All-Star Break seems to have them positioned as sellers.

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New York Mets San Francisco Giants Michael Conforto

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Blake Snell Among Giants Drawing Trade Interest

By Darragh McDonald | July 26, 2024 at 8:46pm CDT

8:46pm: Jon Heyman of the New York Post tweets that five teams have shown some amount of interest in Snell.

10:22 am: The Giants have hovered around the National League Wild Card race for most of the year but slipped back recently, which could lead to them deciding to sell prior to Tuesday’s trade deadline. Andrew Baggarly of The Athletic took a look at some possible trade candidates, reporting that left-hander Blake Snell is drawing significant trade interest. Earlier this week, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic listed Michael Conforto, Mike Yastrzemski and Wilmer Flores as bats that are available around the league. Baggarly also mentions right-hander Alex Cobb and lefty Taylor Rogers as candidates to be moved in the coming days.

San Francisco is currently 49-55, which only puts them 5.5 games back of the nearest playoff spot, but they would have to pull away from the Cubs and then pass the Reds, Pirates, Diamondbacks, Cardinals and Padres in order to get into postseason position. They’re not totally buried but the Playoff Odds at FanGraphs give them just an 11.5% shot of getting in while the PECOTA Standings at Baseball Prospectus are even less optimistic at 5.6%. With that kind of Hail Mary window, it’s logical that the Giants would look into shifting their priorities to optimizing next year’s team, which would mean making some players available now.

It’s unsurprising that Snell would draw significant trade interest, though his trade candidacy would have complications. He’s one of the top pitchers in baseball when at his best, which is why he has two Cy Young awards on his mantel. That includes getting last year’s National League trophy when he posted a 2.25 earned run average over 32 starts with the Padres.

But 2024 has been far less smooth. Despite his excellent 2023 campaign, he lingered in free agency for a long time and didn’t sign with the Giants until the middle of March. After a quick ramp-up, he made three rough starts before landing on the injured list with a left adductor strain. He returned from the IL and had three more bad outings before returning to the IL in early June with a left groin strain. At that time, he had an ERA of 9.51 in those six starts.

He has since returned and been in much better form. He shut out the Blue Jays and then the Twins before allowing two earned runs against the Dodgers. Those three better starts have reduced his ERA to 5.83 for the year.

Despite the inconsistent results this year, some clubs would surely be willing to bank on his track record and recent return to form. However, his contract adds another layer of complication. He signed a two-year, $62MM deal with the Giants that allows him to opt-out at season’s end.

Trading players with such provisions is usually a tricky proposition, something that MLBTR’s Anthony Franco recently explored in a piece for Front Office subscribers and it’s a situation that Giant fans are likely familiar with from the Carlos Rodón saga from a few years ago. Despite having a dominant season for a middling Giants club, Rodón wasn’t moved at the deadline as he had an upcoming opt-out that seemed to ward off potential buyers.

Players in such situations are mostly downside for the acquiring club. If the player performs well, they will leave, making them a rental in a best-case scenario. If they perform poorly or get hurt, they will stick around and keep their notable salary on the books. Surrendering notable prospects for such an arrangement is often an unattractive proposition and the selling club might not want to give up a star player for an uninspiring return.

Snell’s contract consists of a $15MM salary this year and a $17MM signing bonus that Baggarly notes is not transferable to a trade partner. There’s a $30MM player option for 2025 that Snell could trigger if he finishes the season poorly or is injured, but he could also opt-out if he finishes strong. Those complications might soften the offers but demand for pitching is expected to outstrip supply, especially in terms of front-of-the-rotation type arms, so perhaps the Giants will get some intriguing calls.

It makes sense that the Giants would listen to offers to see if they could get that contract off their books while also recouping some younger talent. Even without Snell, next year’s rotation could consist of Logan Webb, Kyle Harrison, Robbie Ray and Jordan Hicks, with Tristan Beck and Keaton Winn perhaps back in the mix if their health allows. Prospect Carson Whisenhunt has reached Triple-A while the club also has Mason Black, Hayden Birdsong, Landen Roupp and Kai-Wei Teng on the 40-man roster.

Sticking with the rotation, Cobb is a more straightforward trade candidate in the sense that he’s an impending free agent. Even though he underwent hip surgery in October, the Giants picked up his $10MM option for this year in the hopes that he wouldn’t miss that much time. Unfortunately, his return has been slowed by some elbow and shoulder issues and still hasn’t pitched in the majors this season.

He has been rehabbing of late and tossed five shutout innings at the Triple-A level on Saturday. Baggarly notes that he could be reinstated and pitch for the Giants on Sunday, which would essentially be a pre-deadline showcase for interested clubs. The injury issues from this year will likely give clubs some hesitation but Cobb is an established veteran with a 3.85 ERA over 230 career starts. As recently as last year, he was able to toss 151 1/3 innings with a 3.87 ERA.

As for the bats, Rosenthal mentioned Flores as a trade candidate on Wednesday but the Giants put him on the IL the next day due to right knee tendonitis. Players on the IL can still be traded but he is also having a down season, hitting .206/.277/.318 for a wRC+ of 71. He’s making $6.5MM this year and then has a dual player/team option for 2025. He first has to decide on a $3.5MM player option and then, if he declines, the team would have an $8.5MM option available. Given his down season, he might be inclined to pick up his end of the deal rather than going to free agency.

Conforto is a straightforward trade candidate since he’s an impending free agent. He signed a two-year, $36MM deal going into 2023 and then declined to opt out after hitting a league-average .239/.334/.384 last year. He started out well this year but has tapered off. He was hitting .280/.331/.490 when he landed on the IL on May 12 due to a right hamstring strain. Since coming off the IL in early June, he’s hitting .165/.262/.331.

Yastrzemski can be retained via arbitration through next year, but there’s logic in considering trades now. He’ll turn 34 next month and is making $7.9MM, meaning he could be looking for an eight-figure salary in arbitration next year. He’s been a consistently solid player during his career on both sides of the ball. He has hit .241/.326/.458 for a wRC+ of 114 while racking up 35 Defensive Runs Saved and seven Outs Above Average. Per FanGraphs, he’s been worth at least 1.6 wins above replacement in every previous season of his career and is currently at 1.3 fWAR this year.

Even without Conforto and Yastrzemski, the Giants could go into next year with an outfield mix consisting of Jung Hoo Lee, Heliot Ramos and Luis Matos with guys like Derek Hill, Tyler Fitzgerald and Wade Meckler also in the mix.

As for Rogers, he’s in the second season of a three-year, $33MM deal he signed with the Giants. He has continued to pitch well and the Giants could keep him for next year, but moving now might also make sense. He has a 2.27 ERA this year but that’s largely propped up by an unsustainable 84.1% strand rate. His 25.6% strikeout rate is his worst since 2017 and he’ll be turning 34 this winter.

Teams generally sign free agents looking for most production in the beginning of the deal, with the later years a pill they swallow as the price of doing business. If there’s a way for them to wriggle out of the last season of the Rogers pact, they might consider taking it. Such a move could potentially free up some cash, bring back some young talent or both. It would create a hole in next year’s bullpen but relievers are often viewed as volatile and fairly replaceable.

All together, the Giants make for an interesting late entry into a market that has been perceived to have a lack of sellers. As laid out by Baggarly, the club could try to duck under the competitive balance tax in the days to come but it would be difficult to do. RosterResource estimates they are currently just above $253MM, more than $16MM above the $237MM base threshold. They would effectively have to find takers for all the money owed to Snell, Rogers, Conforto, Yastrzemski and Cobb to dip under and therefore might be focused on prospect capital between now and the July 30 deadline.

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Newsstand San Francisco Giants Alex Cobb Blake Snell Michael Conforto Mike Yastrzemski Taylor Rogers Wilmer Flores

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A’s Reinstate Paul Blackburn From Injured List

By Anthony Franco | July 26, 2024 at 7:52pm CDT

The Athletics reinstated Paul Blackburn from the 60-day injured list to start tonight against the Angels. Oakland had an opening on the 40-man roster. They optioned Hogan Harris to clear space on the active roster.

Blackburn takes the ball for the first time since early May. He missed two and a half months with a stress reaction in his right foot. The 30-year-old righty had started eight times before the injury. He worked to a 4.11 ERA through 46 innings. His 19.1% strikeout rate was a little below average, while his 6.9% walk percentage and 47.1% grounder rate were both a bit better than par. That’s about what’s expected of Blackburn, who has been a control-oriented league average starter for a few seasons.

The righty will only make one start before next Tuesday’s deadline. Blackburn could generate some trade interest, though the A’s never seriously seemed to entertain moving him last offseason. They probably won’t do so coming off an extended injury absence which has dealt a hit to his value. There’s little incentive for the A’s to sell low, as Blackburn is playing on a modest $3.45MM salary and is under arbitration control next season.

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Athletics Transactions Paul Blackburn

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The Blue Jays Shouldn’t Be Resisting A Reset

By Steve Adams | July 26, 2024 at 7:34pm CDT

The 2024 season clearly hasn't gone the way the Blue Jays hoped. Expected to contend for a Wild Card spot at the very least, the Jays have instead encountered notable injuries (Jordan Romano, Alek Manoah) and seen career-worst performances from several key players (Bo Bichette, Alejandro Kirk, Justin Turner, Kevin Kiermaier). Top prospect Orelvis Martinez received an 80-game PED suspension. Very, very little has gone well in Toronto -- as evidenced by their 46-56 record and -82 run differential.

Unsurprisingly, Toronto has become a deadline seller. The front office reportedly isn't interested in any kind of large-scale rebuild, however, and is focused on primarily selling off rental assets. Reliever Yimi Garcia has already been traded to the Mariners. Starter Yusei Kikuchi and the aforementioned Turner are among the candidates to change hands. That'll bring back some modest returns in terms of prospects. It's also not sufficient for a team in Toronto's situation.

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Front Office Originals Membership Toronto Blue Jays Bo Bichette Chris Bassitt Kevin Gausman Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

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Mets Acquire Ryne Stanek

By Anthony Franco | July 26, 2024 at 7:07pm CDT

The Mariners announced they’ve traded reliever Ryne Stanek to the Mets for minor league outfielder Rhylan Thomas. New York has yet to announce the move and will need to clear a spot on the 40-man roster.

Stanek, who turns 33 today, has worked in generally high-leverage spots. His performance has been uneven. Stanek owns a 4.38 ERA across 39 innings spanning 46 appearances. He has fanned an above-average 25.9% of opponents while walking nearly 10% of batters faced. It’s a reasonable enough strikeout and walk profile, but Stanek has fallen on hard times of late. He has allowed five runs over 5 2/3 frames this month, giving up a pair of homers and issuing six walks in the process.

Over parts of eight MLB seasons, Stanek owns a 3.54 earned run average. He throws very hard, averaging north of 98 MPH on his fastball. Stanek misses bats but has fringy command and occasionally struggles with home runs. He’s a potential setup option who could fit more cleanly in the middle innings.

The Mariners upgraded their setup core this afternoon, bringing in Yimi García from the Blue Jays. That evidently made Stanek expendable. New York takes a low-cost flier to add a power arm to their bullpen. The Mets brought in Phil Maton — coincidentally, a teammate of Stanek’s for the past few seasons with the Astros — in a trade with the Rays earlier this month. While Stanek and Maton are different types of pitchers, this is a similar kind of move. The Mets take on a few million dollars to add to their bullpen without expending much prospect capital.

Stanek is playing this season on a $4MM base salary. He’s on a one-year deal and will return to free agency at the end of the year. He’s due around $1.4MM in salary through season’s end. His deal contains up to $2MM in performance bonuses. Stanek would lock in $250K for reaching 50, 60 and 70 appearances. He should at least hit the first two of those markers. He’d earn $250K for reaching 20 games finished, with another $250K available for every five games finished up to 40. He’s at 12 so far and will probably work in middle relief for the Mets, so he could fall short of even the lowest of those thresholds. Any incentives he unlocks will be paid proportionally between the two teams. He also picks up a $250K assignment bonus because of the trade.

The Mets are paying a 110% tax on any money they take on. They’re absorbing around $1.54MM in taxes and would be taxed at the same rate for whatever incentives Stanek earns. The overall cost will probably check in around $4MM by season’s end.

New York also relinquishes their 11th-round pick from two seasons ago. A USC product, Thomas is a left-handed hitting outfielder. He has split his time between the top two minor league levels this year, hitting .265/.318/.387 over 305 plate appearances. Thomas hasn’t hit for power or drawn many walks, but he’s striking out at only a 12.1% clip. The 24-year-old can play anywhere in the outfield and likely projects as a fifth outfielder. Baseball America does not rank him among New York’s top 30 prospects.

Andy Martino of SNY first reported the Mets were acquiring Stanek for Thomas.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

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New York Mets Newsstand Seattle Mariners Transactions Ryne Stanek

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Rays Acquire Cole Sulser From Mets

By Anthony Franco | July 26, 2024 at 5:57pm CDT

The Rays announced they’ve acquired reliever Cole Sulser from the Mets for cash and optioned him to Triple-A Durham. Tampa Bay had three openings on the 40-man roster, so no further moves were necessary.

New York had designated Sulser for assignment on Monday as the corresponding move for the signing of catcher Logan Porter. The righty had pitched four times for the Mets since they added him to their 40-man roster in April. He allowed five runs over 4 2/3 innings with seven strikeouts and three walks.

A former Cleveland draftee, Sulser made his major league debut with the Rays back in 2019. Tampa Bay lost him on waivers to Baltimore at the end of that season. The Dartmouth product had one excellent year out of the O’s bullpen in 2021. He turned in a 2.70 ERA across 63 1/3 frames behind a 28.4% strikeout rate. Sulser’s numbers fell off after the Orioles traded him to the Marlins the next winter, though. He has barely pitched in the big leagues since then, logging minimal action for the Diamondbacks and Mets.

The 34-year-old Sulser has spent the bulk of the year in Triple-A. He owns a 1.48 earned run average across 30 1/3 innings with New York’s top affiliate. Sulser has fanned an above-average 28.1% of batters faced while issuing walks to a lofty 13.2% of minor league opponents. He’s in his final option year and could get a look in the Tampa Bay bullpen after the deadline, especially if they trade someone like Pete Fairbanks or Jason Adam.

Anthony DiComo of MLB.com first reported the Mets were trading Sulser to Tampa Bay for cash.

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New York Mets Tampa Bay Rays Transactions Cole Sulser

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Cubs Select Christian Bethancourt

By Darragh McDonald | July 26, 2024 at 5:45pm CDT

The Cubs announced today that they have selected the contract of catcher Christian Bethancourt. He’ll take the roster spot of fellow backstop Tomás Nido, who has been placed on the 10-day injured list with a right knee sprain, retroactive to July 25. To open a 40-man roster spot, right-hander Ben Brown was transferred to the 60-day injured list.

Bethancourt, 32, began the year with the Marlins but struggled significantly with that club. He hit .159/.198/.268 through 88 plate appearances and was released by the end of June. The Cubs had just two catchers on their 40-man roster in Nido and Miguel Amaya, so they brought Bethancourt over on a minor league deal.

He hasn’t done much to inspire hope that he’s put his offensive woes behind him since then. In seven Triple-A games since signing that pact, he has a line of .192/.222/.192. That’s a tiny sample size but the combination of that with his work with the Marlins earlier this year is fairly bleak.

The Cubs will seemingly be hoping for a bounceback. As recently as 2022, Bethancourt hit .252/.283/.409 in the majors for a wRC+ of 100. But he slipped to .225/.254/.381 and a wRC+ of 74 last year and, as mentioned, has been awful this season.

Even if he doesn’t hit, Bethancourt is fairly well regarded for his work in controlling the running game, though his framing metrics aren’t that strong. The move will at least come with a minimal cost, as the Marlins are on the hook for the majority of his $2.05MM salary, with the Cubs only having to cover the prorated version of the league minimum salary for any time spent on the roster. That will be subtracted from what the Fish pay.

As for Brown, he landed on the 15-day injured list June 9. His ailment was initially listed as a neck strain though it was later reported to actually be a stress reaction in his neck. He’s now ineligible to return until 60 days from that initial IL placement, which would be early August. He has yet to begin a rehab assignment and will presumably need at least a week or two to ramp up whenever he’s cleared to do so. Taking that into consideration, this may not indicate any kind of setback in his recovery.

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Chicago Cubs Transactions Ben Brown Christian Bethancourt Tomas Nido

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Tigers Place Riley Greene On Injured List

By Darragh McDonald | July 26, 2024 at 3:23pm CDT

The Tigers announced that outfielder Riley Greene has been placed on the 10-day injured list with a right hamstring strain. Infielder/outfielder Ryan Vilade has been recalled from Triple-A Toledo in a corresponding move.

At this point, it’s unclear how long Greene is expected to be out of action and the player himself couldn’t provide much clarity. “It’s Grade 1 or 2, whatever it is,” Greene said, per Cody Stavenhagen of The Athletic on X. “It could have been worse. I’m glad it’s not. There’s really no timeline behind it. It’s based on how I’m feeling, and go from there.”

Even with that murky prognosis, it could be a notable development nonetheless as Greene has easily been the club’s best position player this year and the Tigers are one of many in-between teams that could impact Tuesday’s trade deadline.

In 101 games for Detroit this year, Greene has 17 home runs. His 25.5% strikeout rate is a bit on the high side but he’s also drawn walks in 11.9% of his plate appearances. His .264/.357/.485 batting line leads to a 136 wRC+, indicating he’s been 36% better than the league average hitter.

Greene’s glovework has also received strong reviews. He has played all three outfield slots, though mostly in left field. Thus far, he’s racked up nine Defensive Runs Saved and two Outs Above Average.

Combining his offensive and defensive contributions, Greene has been worth 2.9 wins above replacement this year, per the calculations of FanGraphs. No other position player on the Tigers has been worth more than 1.5 fWAR this year so Greene is essentially doubling all of his non-pitching teammates in that department.

The Tigers are one of many clubs within sight of a playoff spot but not necessarily with a great shot. They are 51-53 and currently 5.5 games back of an American League Wild Card spot. The Playoff Odds at FanGraphs give them an 8.8% chance of getting into the postseason while the PECOTA Standings at Baseball Prospectus have them a tad lower at 7.7%.

If they decide to sell between now and the deadline, they could make some very interesting players available. Jack Flaherty is viewed as the top rental starting pitcher on the market and the Tigers have other possible rentals in Carson Kelly, Mark Canha and Gio Urshela. They have 2025 club options on Andrew Chafin and Shelby Miller. Though Tarik Skubal has two years of club control remaining after this one, rival clubs are undoubtedly trying their best to get him out of Detroit.

The Tigers are playing the Twins this weekend, one of the clubs they are chasing in the playoff race. Perhaps their results this weekend will impact what kind of moves they make. Losing Greene figures to hurt their chances in those upcoming games and the ones to come after that, making this a potentially significant IL stint.

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Detroit Tigers Riley Greene Ryan Vilade

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Pirates Designate Josh Fleming For Assignment

By Darragh McDonald | July 26, 2024 at 2:55pm CDT

The Pirates announced that infielder/outfielder Ji Hwan Bae has been recalled from Triple-A Indianapolis and right-hander Hunter Stratton has been reinstated from the 15-day injured list. They opened one roster spot yesterday by placing outfielder Bryan Reynolds on the bereavement list and opened another today by designating left-hander Josh Fleming for assignment.

Fleming, 28, signed with the Bucs in the offseason and now gets the DFA treatment for the second time this year. The first time resulted in him clearing waivers and accepting an outright assignment, which eventually led to his second stint in the big leagues this year.

He has logged 31 1/3 innings for the Pirates between those two stints, allowing 4.02 earned runs per nine. His 54.3% ground ball rate is quite strong but both his 12.3% strikeout rate and 10.1% walk are subpar.

Fleming is out of options and can’t be sent down to the minors without first being exposed to waivers. He was non-tendered by the Rays at the end of last year and signed a deal with the Bucs that pays him $850K in the majors and $240K in the minors. As a player with more than three years of major league service time, he has the right to reject outright assignments in favor of free agency. But since he’s south of the five-year service mark, doing so means forfeiting whatever money he’s still owed. That’s likely why he accepted his assignment the last time Pittsburgh sent him through waivers and why he may do so again.

His numbers this year are fairly similar to his time with Tampa. Overall, he has a 4.77 ERA in 254 2/3 innings. He has struck out just 14.6% of batters faced but has kept walks down to a 7.6% clip and kept balls in play on the ground at a 58.4% rate.

Perhaps some club will be interested in acquiring Fleming in the coming days. With the trade deadline on Tuesday, some teams will be opening holes on their rosters via trade and might need to fill some innings. Fleming could be retained via arbitration for three more years after this one but, as mentioned, he cleared waivers once already this year.

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Pittsburgh Pirates Transactions Bryan Reynolds Hunter Stratton Ji-Hwan Bae Josh Fleming

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Rangers Among Clubs With Interest In Yandy Díaz

By Darragh McDonald | July 26, 2024 at 2:21pm CDT

Rays infielder Yandy Díaz has been on the restricted list for almost a week while attending to an undisclosed personal matter, but the Rays announced that they reinstated him today. They already had three vacancies on their 40-man roster, so this move brings their count to 38. Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times relayed on X earlier that the club was hopeful of Díaz returning tonight. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reported last night that the Rangers are interested in adding him to their lineup. Mark Feinsand of MLB.com says on X that the Astros, Mariners and Pirates are possible suitors, though it’s unclear if any of those clubs have engaged with the Rays.

Díaz, now 32, has been a fixture of the Rays for many years. He came to Tampa from Cleveland heading into 2019 as part of the three-team trade and quickly worked his way into being a regular for the Rays. From the start of 2019 to the present, he has drawn walks in 11.6% of his plate appearances while only striking out 14.5% of the time. His .288/.375/.439 batting line translates to a 133 wRC+, indicating he’s been 33% better than league average overall.

That offense is his best attribute. He’s not a burner on the basepaths and his third base defense was poorly regarded, though he’s been closer to average at first base and has been more or less permanently moved to that side of the diamond. But the 133 wRC+ that Díaz has put up from 2019 to the present is one of the top 15 marks in baseball among qualified hitters, highlighting that such consistently above-average production is hard to find.

Here in 2024, his season-long stats look mildly disappointing, a .273/.329/.396 line and 111 wRC+, but that’s mostly due to a brutal start that he has put behind him. He hit .211/.279/.276 through May 1 but his line of .302/.354/.453 since that time leads to a 134 wRC+, right in line with his overall track record.

The Rays don’t strictly have to move him but their behavior suggests he’s available. Going into 2023, he and the Rays signed an extension that runs through 2025 with a club option for 2026. He’ll make $10MM next year with the option valued at $12MM.

Tampa could certainly keep him but they have shown, both recently and in the past, that they are generally unafraid to move players nearing free agency. Although they are 52-51 this year and just four games out of a playoff spot, they have already traded Aaron Civale, Phil Maton and Randy Arozarena in recent weeks.

Some recent reporting suggested the Rays were more likely to trade arbitrations players than those signed to long-term deals, but that contradicts their past behavior. Players like Evan Longoria, Blake Snell, Tyler Glasnow and Manuel Margot have all signed extensions and then been traded before those contracts ended, so there’s no real reason to believe the Rays won’t be open to trade offers on Díaz.

Doing so wouldn’t even be a signal that the club is giving up on 2024, as players like Isaac Paredes and Curtis Mead could fill in at first base. Jonathan Aranda is currently hurt but could be in the mix later. Infielders like Junior Caminero, Austin Shenton and Osleivis Basabe could be called up to fill in elsewhere around the infield. In the long term, Xavier Isaac is a first baseman and considered one of the top 50 prospects in the league, though he’s yet to reach Double-A.

For the Rangers, Rosenthal relays that they are looking for “either a left-handed hitting outfielder/DH or a platoon-neutral right-handed hitter.” Díaz is better against lefties but isn’t a liability without the platoon advantage. He has a 148 wRC+ against southpaws in his career and a 121 wRC+ against righties. It’s a far wider split of 151 and 99 this year, though in a much smaller sample size.

Texas hitters have a collective line of .237/.309/.378 against right-handed pitching, with that line leading to a 93 wRC+, putting them ahead of just seven clubs in that split. They have Nathaniel Lowe at first base but don’t really have a regular designated hitter and should be able to fit both him and Díaz into the same lineup.

The Rays and Mariners already lined up on one deal, sending the aforementioned Arozarena to Seattle as the M’s look for more offense. Díaz could further augment their lineup, especially with the struggling Ty France have been recently designated for assignment and leaving an opening at first base. They have plugged Tyler Locklear into that spot but he has only 40 major league plate appearances thus far.

The Astros also cut ties with a struggling first baseman, releasing José Abreu earlier this year. They have mostly used Jon Singleton to fill that hole but he’s hitting just .231/.319/.343 this year for a 93 wRC+.

The Pirates have a bit less of a dire need as they held onto their struggling first baseman and were rewarded with a bounceback. Rowdy Tellez was hitting .177/.239/.223 through the end of May but has a line of .328/.364/.588 since the calendar flipped to June. His season-long line is still subpar thanks to that early slump but the Pirates probably feel less inclined to replaced Tellez on the heels of his hot streak this summer. They have Andrew McCutchen in the designated hitter spot most days, which makes the lineup fit a bit less clean unless they plan on moving on from Tellez, who is a free agent at season’s end.

Both the Astros and Rangers are set to pay the competitive balance tax at season’s end, so they may have to consider the taxes involved in taking on the Díaz contract. The Astros are set to be a first-time payor and have a base rate of 20% but RosterResource has their CBT number at $256MM. Crossing over the $257MM second tier would increase their tax rate to 32% for spending beyond that line. Recent reporting suggested they are trying to move Rafael Montero’s contract to lessen their tax burden but doing so will be difficult given his poor results of late. RosterResource has the Rangers at $249MM but they are set to be a second-time payor and have a base tax rate of 30%.

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