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The Boston Globe’s Gordon Edes has some mild hot stove chatter today.

  • Tim Wakefield’s $4MM option is likely to be exercised. There was some speculation a week ago that it could be declined, but no one really believed it.  It’s still a bargain.
  • Julian Tavarez’s $3.85MM option is a borderline call, and Edes seems to think it will be declined.
  • Nothing new with Mike Lowell – he wants to return, but the door’s open for the Phillies or Yankees if the Red Sox won’t pony up enough years.
  • Most folks expect Curt Schilling to leave.  But if he’s still up for one year and $13MM the Sox should do it.
  • Mike Timlin will pitch again but it might be elsewhere.  Timlin hasn’t been with another club since ’02, when he pitched for the Cardinals and Phillies.
  • Matt Clement will depart.  If his tryouts and MRIs come up clean and he can hit 90 mph there will definitely be teams offering him incentivized contracts.  Here’s one I missed from a few weeks ago: the Padres may make a play for him.  Tom Krasovic also throws Mark Prior into the mix for the Friars in that article.  Back in December of ’04, Clement talked with the Angels, Dodgers, Diamondbacks, White Sox, Indians, and Blue Jays before signing with Boston.

Mariano Rivera To Test The Market

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As you know, Joe Torre’s rejection of the Yankees’ weak offer may influence the thinking of Mariano Rivera.  The Journal News’ Peter Abraham has more on that angle:

Just spoke to somebody I know who is tight with Mariano Rivera. He said that Mo is more determined than ever to test the market after the developments of today.  Mo’s comment: “The Yankees are one of 30 teams now.”

Hank Steinbrenner has insisted Joba Chamberlain spend 2008 as a starter, heightening the Yankees’ need to make the best offer to Rivera.  Ultimately I think they will.  The guess from Jon Heyman was two years, $26MM plus an option year for 2010 for Rivera.  He could probably get three years guaranteed on the open market.

Rivera doesn’t think he could bear to put on a Red Sox uniform, so maybe the Yankees are one of 29 teams.  The Phillies plan to get in the mix for Rivera for sure.

Odds and Ends

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More random rumors and reading material!

  • Baseball Prospectus’ Nate Silver discusses Ryan Braun’s undeniably terrible defense at third base, suggesting some interesting trade and signing permutations to get him into right field.  Also note that Kevin Kouzmanoff is a butcher at third; maybe the Friars will be in the market for Mike Lowell this winter (a player they’ve expressed interest in in the past).
  • Awesome headline for this Garrett Atkins article.  Steve King discusses how the Phillies would be a fine fit for a trade, throwing the Dodgers, Twins, Angels, and Astros into the mix as well.  Note that Atkins has a career line of .269/.344/.437 on the road and .336/.399/.528 at Coors.
  • Sid Hartman is hearing that Walt Jocketty could end up in Baltimore.
  • The Daily Herald’s Scot Gregor proposes some kind of Jon Garland for Bill Hall swap, or even a Carl Crawford acquisition by the White Sox.  I don’t think the Sox and Rays match up too well for that. 
  • I thought he’d stay, but Joe Torre has turned down a one-year, $5MM offer from the Yankees.  The proposal had another $3MM in incentives and a vesting option for 2009 if the Yanks won the ’08 World Series.
  • It’s Hiroshima or MLB for Hiroki Kuroda.  Apparently the Ms already have their eye on him.  Paul Sullivan also said recently that the Cubs will be in the mix.

Odds and Ends: Wakefield, Guillen, Lowell

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Some random rumorage not quite worthy of individual posts…

You’re The GM: Philadelphia Phillies

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Randy Miller weighed in yesterday morning with his plan for the Phillies.  The team has $23MM to spend, by his count. 

He wants to sign Curt Schilling, David Riske, Mark Loretta, and Mike Cameron and also re-sign J.C. Romero.  He also would ship Pat Burrell and Geoff Geary to the Angels for "two decent minor leaguers."

Well.  Start with the good – I think most of us can agree that Schilling at $13MM is solid.

The bad: Riske’s $2.85MM club option for ’08 is very likely to be exercised by the Royals [Update: turns out the club option became a player option with 60 games. So he probably will become a free agent.]  Loretta hit .287/.352/.372 this year, with a putrid .626 OPS after the break.  Essentially swapping Burrell out for Cameron…huh?

What would I do?  I’d make the same Schilling move, leaving me with $10MM.  Then I’d tell Carlos Carrasco to start training as a reliever, because that’s his role in ’08.  Rather than make a bunch of questionable three-year reliever signings, I’ll try to just get better at building a cheap bullpen.  I’ll lure Leo Mazzone to Philly by topping his best offer by a million or two. 

Noting that the Phils had the best offense in the league in ’08, I’ll just look for league average production at 3B (.280/.348/.456).  Hello Mike Lamb for two years, $8MM.  If Lamb forgets how to hit lefties again, I platoon him with Wes Helms.  Betcha a dollar I get league average production out of that.

I’ll go with a Burrell/Victorino/Bourn/Werth outfield, no need to invest heavily in the free agents or trade Bourn.

Hey, I have $6MM left over (unless Mazzone gets greedy).  I’ll use it on more pitching, you can never have enough.  Maybe I’ll try to get two Cub retreads like Matt Clement and Kerry Wood.  Maybe I’ll have my docs look at Bartolo Colon and see what he’s asking for.  I’ll check in with Jason Jennings too.  If nothing works out, I’ll sit on the money and make a trade in early June as needed.  Voila, my team wins 90 games and doesn’t screw itself over for 2009-11.

BooSanta weighs in on Miller’s decisions here, if you want another take.  So, you have $23MM.  What do you do?

Schilling Open To Phillies

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We learned yesterday that the Phillies have already had internal discussions about bringing in Curt Schilling.  Schilling was asked about the possibility yesterday, and confirmed that Philly is on his "short list" assuming they’d want him back.

Schilling might be one of the few free agent buys this winter that actually works out.  He turns 41 soon, so health is obviously a concern.  With a 4.4 K/BB in 151 innings, his command is as amazing as ever.  The commitment would be low-risk, probably one year at $15-16MM.  And switching from the AL East to the NL – what pitcher wouldn’t love that?  Just ask Ted Lilly.  If Schilling and Cole Hamels could combine for 360 innings next year, the Phils would be in great shape.

Here’s the problem: the Phillies supposedly have $20MM to burn.  Give a minimum $13MM of it to Schilling, and you fall short on Mike Lowell by at least $4MM.  If the budget is truly that strict, perhaps this can be solved with backloading for Lowell.  Keep in mind that both players’ first choice is still Boston. 

Latest Phillies Rumors: Lowell, Rivera, Schilling

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Let’s catch up on the rumors and minor moves involving the Phillies recently.

One offseason objective is, of course, third base.  Abraham Nunez was an easy buyout decision; Pat Gillick will import a new third baseman this winter one way or another.  Phils fans can stop dreaming up A-Rod scenarios; Gillick won’t pursue him.  Mike Lowell is the one free agent 3B on the Phils’ radar.  While Lowell wouldn’t mind playing in Philly, he made it clear yesterday that Boston remains his first choice.  So there’s a good chance Gillick will have to get his man via trade.  Scott Lauber names Garrett Atkins and Joe Crede (free agent after ’08, Boras client) as possible targets.  We all know how Gillick loves dealing with Kenny Williams (and the Sox can use Josh Fields at third base).

Rod Barajas won’t be retained; Chris Coste will serve as the backup to Carlos Ruiz.  A nice, cheap catching tandem.

How about pitching?  Randy Miller has a source saying the Phils are targeting a couple of AL East stalwarts – Curt Schilling and Mariano Rivera.  To sign Rivera at $12MM per and use Brett Myers in setup seems like a misallocation of resources to me.  As for Schilling, Miller says he’s expressed interest in coming back to Philly to finish his career.  I like the fit.

Miller also has some very interesting info on Aaron Rowand – he’s looking for a six-year, $84MM contract!  Does that mean he ends up with a five-year, $60MM deal?  Pretty hefty for a guy coming off a career year.  Miller says the Phils won’t go for big-name replacements like Andruw Jones or Torii Hunter.

Finally, Pat Burrell has surfaced as a solid trading chip.  He’s left with a reasonable one-year, $14MM commitment, albeit with a full-no trade clause that would require more compensation.  How about Burrell to the White Sox for Crede?  Phils kick in a couple mil, the White Sox get much-needed OBP for ’08 plus draft picks when Burrell leaves.

Phillies Have $20MM To Burn

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The Philadelphia Inquirer’s Todd Zolecki tallied up the Phillies’ commitments and determined that they have roughly $20MM free to spend on pitching, third base, and perhaps Aaron Rowand.  Zolecki feels that the Phils would choose to let Rowand walk if they couldn’t fit it all in the budget.

Zolecki mentions Mike Lowell as a possibility for the hot corner; that’d run $8-12MM for ’08 depending on how you backload it.  Lowell seems in line for at least two years, $22MM.  Gordon Edes has speculated that it could require a three or four year commitment.  The Phillies at least fall under the teams on Lowell’s list, it appears.

The other $10MM or so might all have to go toward a starting pitcher.  The Phillies have Jamie Moyer, Adam Eaton, Cole Hamels, and Kyle Kendrick locked in.  If the Phils don’t like the free agent market (they had interest in reacquiring Carlos Silva this summer), they could pursue Jon Garland or Dontrelle Willis via trade.  The Phils have also scouted Anthony Reyes.

That doesn’t leave any money for Andruw Jones, despite recent speculation.

Braves Notes: Hampton, Lowry, Andruw

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Mike Hampton makes $15MM next year, and the Braves aren’t getting any relief from the Rockies or Marlins.  However, it turns out the Braves actually spread around those payments so that they’d pay out about $8MM to Hampton in each year of the deal.

This is confirmed by Bill Shanks of Scout.com, for starters.  Shanks notes that the Braves owe $8.25MM to Hampton next year because of amortization.  I’ve heard that David O’Brien of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution said something similar in the comments of one of his blog posts, but it’s been buried somewhere.  Bottom line, the Braves have $7MM more than we thought they did.  A $95MM payroll would give Atlanta some wiggle room to add a starter.

It’s not a stretch to add Tom Glavine, with this new information.  However, O’Brien thinks the Braves need more.  While Dan Haren or Joe Blanton may be out of reach, Noah Lowry seems a more realistic target.  The point is to find a decent young controllable arm.

O’Brien’s also got some early interested parties in Andruw Jones: the Dodgers, Rangers, Giants, White Sox, Nationals, Phillies, and Mets.  Seems like the idea of moving Beltran to right field has been discussed within the Mets organization.  The Dodgers, I imagine, would shift Juan Pierre to left field. 

Rowand For 5/50?

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Buster Olney believes that Aaron Rowand will be the most popular free agent center fielder this winter, more so than Andruw Jones or Torii Hunter.  Rowand will be more affordable at $10-12MM annually over five years.  Beyond his above average offense and defense, he brings an intangible bonus as a good clubhouse guy.  The 30 year-old hit .309/.374/.515 in 612 ABs this year.  He set career bests in games played (161) and OBP.

Olney’s list of teams that may pursue a center fielder this winter: the Cubs, White Sox, Padres, Cardinals, Braves, Rangers, Nationals, Mariners, Pirates, and Mets.  Rowand plans on testing the market, so the Phillies won’t get any kind of discount if they retain him. 

To me, a free agent CF doesn’t really fit for the Cards or Mariners.  As for the Mets, they should probably just exercise Moises Alou’s option and have a good fourth outfielder on hand.

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