Graziano’s Latest: Livan, Wily Mo
Dan Graziano at the Newark Star-Ledger has really stepped up in recent days with a lot of insider trade talk. Let’s see what he has in store for us this morning.
- Apparently Josh Byrnes is calling around, actively shopping Livan Hernandez. According to Graziano, the Mets, Braves, and Mariners have expressed interest. To the contrary, Ken Rosenthal wrote last night that the Mets and Braves are not interested. Who to believe? Hopefully the Mariners do better than Livan if they make a move for a starter. To hear Nick Piecoro tell it, the Diamondbacks are more likely to just opt for the draft picks they’ll get if they let Hernandez leave via free agency.
- The Yankees are in a quandary when it comes to dealing Scott Proctor or Kyle Farnsworth. For Proctor, they want more than just a role player like Ty Wigginton. They want a reliever back, which begs the question – why not just keep Proctor? With Farnsy, the Yanks are reluctant to pay a big chunk of his $5.5 salary for ’08. They should toss in $2MM and see if that’s enough to get Wiggy.
- If the Red Sox can snag Bobby Kielty, they might turn around and trade Wily Mo Pena to the White Sox. Wily Mo in that ballpark with 600 plate appearances? 40 home runs. Might make Theo look bad. Dejan Kovacevic mentions that Epstein is "actively shopping" Pena, and seems to like the idea of the Bucs sending Salomon Torres to Boston for him.
- The Brewers, Phillies, and Dodgers are looking at Oakland lefty and impending free agent Joe Kennedy. Kennedy is only 28 and he has had National League success as a starter.
Phillies Assistant GM Scouting Toronto
According to the Toronto Sun, Phillies assistant general manager Ruben Amaro, Jr. was in attendance on Saturday at the Rogers Centre. Naturally, the speculation would be that Amaro was evaluating Josh Towers, the Blue Jays starter that day.
For the day, Towers threw 6 2/3 scoreless innings in a 1-0 win over the Seattle Mariners. On the season, Towers has a 4.97 ERA (92 ERA+) but sports a nice 60/14 K/BB ratio in 83 1/3 innings pitched. Towers had good years in 2003 and 2005 before a disastrous 2006 (8.42 ERA).
What interests the Phillies, or at least it should, is that Towers can keep the ball on the ground, a key to success at Citizens Bank Park. In addition, Towers is eligible for arbitration at the end of the season, so he would not be a long-term commitment if the Phillies decided to non-tender him.
Complicating matters, though it’s a nice problem to have, is the success of Kyle Kendrick and J.D. Durbin the in the Phillies rotation, combining for a 6-2 record as starters. Kendrick has turned in quality start after quality start and Durbin has allowed only one run in his previous two starts combined. The likelihood of the Phillies making a deal is directly dependent on their confidence in these two pitchers.
No word on what the Blue Jays would be seeking in return for Towers.
Tom Goyne is the author of Balls, Sticks, & Stuff, a Phillies-centric site, and maintains the Phloggers’ Pheeds page, a source for the latest commentary from around the "phlogosphere". Recently, he teamed up with his brother to launch Roto Front Office. He can be reached via email at trg at ballssticksstuff dot com.
Olney: D’Backs Could Trade Livan Hernandez
ESPN’s Buster Olney brings up one available starting pitcher we haven’t mentioned here anytime recently: Livan Hernandez. It hadn’t really occurred to me that the Diamondbacks could be sellers. But according to various playoff odds reports, their chances of making the playoffs have slipped to 3-8%. Our good friend Jeff Sackmann took a look at teams on the bubble in a recent column at Hardball Times and recommended the Diamondbacks sell off players such as Hernandez, Eric Byrnes, and Orlando Hudson.
Hernandez reaches free agency after this season, and it seems likely the D’Backs would let him leave. Trading him now could make some sense. He’s got about $2.7MM left on his contract this year. As Olney says, Hernandez’s main virtue is durability. He will take the ball every fifth day and give you six innings. He’s no longer the seven inning per start horse he was from 1998-2005; his average is now around 6.3 innings per start.
As far as playoff experience…would a team like the Mets really want to give him a playoff start? I wouldn’t think so. No doubt the NLCS MVP version we saw in ’97 is a distant memory, and even his work for the Giants in ’02 is five years removed.
Olney believes strong offensive NL teams like the Braves, Mets, or Phillies could take a look at Livan. The Brewers, Dodgers, and Padres may also be looking to add a starter.
Rosenthal’s Latest: Lohse, Hunter, Contreras
The latest trade and signing rumors from Ken Rosenthal:
- Rosenthal believes Alex Rodriguez‘s ability to play shortstop could increase the number of suitors. Take a look at the free agents – there may not be a single viable option at short this winter. Still, the number of suitors for Rodriguez is severely limited by his massive contract requirement. Not too many clubs aside from the Yankees and Red Sox can get in on $240MM over eight years or whatever. The lack of available, reasonably priced shortstops could compel the Braves and Orioles to aggressively shop Edgar Renteria and Miguel Tejada.
- As a 29 year-old free agent starter with decent stuff, Scott Boras could sell Kyle Lohse as the next Gil Meche this winter. Meche’s work in the season’s first three months would only aid the wishcasting. I put up a little Lohse history here, writing that his deal will likely fall somewhere between Jason Marquis and Meche. Other free agent starters who will be under 30 for the 2008 season: Carlos Zambrano, Jason Jennings, Joe Kennedy, and Byung-Hyun Kim.
- Rosenthal believes the Rangers will bid on Torii Hunter this winter unless they acquire a proven center fielder this summer. He mentions that Jon Daniels set his sights on Shane Victorino but the Phils would rather trade Michael Bourn. Unless the Rangers get a proven guy they will still go after Hunter.
- The Mariners scouted Jose Contreras and Matt Morris recently, but both were lousy. I still think Jennings could sneak in there as the best available starter, but he too hasn’t pitched well in July. Definitely seems like the Mariners will snag some kind of starter.
- Rosenthal disputes Evan Grant’s report of the Brewers and Indians showing interest in Kenny Lofton. The Brewers are getting Bill Hall back soon and the Indians have some outfielders on the road to recovery as well. Perfect, this frees him up for the Cubs!
- Rosenthal mentions the same teams I did for Kevin Millar, but sees an August deal as a possibility. Waiting until August doesn’t seem to make sense for the Orioles, as things get trickier then.
- The Padres could trade Scott Linebrink in order to make payroll room for a starter. Or they could just sign Brian Lawrence. I discussed some other options for the Friars here.
All Eyes On Contreras
Buster Olney says that Jose Contreras may be the best available starting pitcher at the moment, which speaks to how weak the market is. Olney lists the Cubs, Braves, Marlins, Indians, and Phillies as teams on hand to watch his six inning, five run performance Sunday night in Baltimore.
To call Contreras the best available indicates that Javier Vazquez is off the market. Contreras’s challengers still include Matt Morris, Dontrelle Willis, and Jason Jennings. If the Pirates were to inexplicably consider trading Ian Snell, he’d easily jump to the forefront. That he’s even available is a dubious rumor at this point.
As for Contreras, his junk might work over in the NL. Maybe that’s why four of the five teams watching his start reside in that league. Olney’s scout said he was working at 87-91, though he did touch 94 last night.
Contreras makes another $4MM this year, $10MM in ’08, and another $10MM in ’09. That shouldn’t scare off too many clubs. Maybe the Marlins. With a 2-4% chance at making the playoffs this year the Marlins would be acquiring Contreras more for 2008-09.
Phils Targeting Longer-Term Contracts at Trade Deadline
As the non-waiver trade deadline appears on the horizon, it is natural to focus on players that are just a few months away from free-agency as likely trade candidates.
But that doesn’t mean players who still have a few years left on their contracts won’t be dealt. Pat Gillick, Phillies GM, recently stated that those are just the types of pitchers the Phillies are interested in acquiring over the next month or so. From Phillyburbs.com: “We’re looking at guys who would have contracts that run for 2008 and 2009,” he said. “Really, we have to find the right situation. We’re not necessarily looking for a rental player. We want someone who could be a piece for us.”
It makes sense to focus longer-term as Freddy Garcia and Jon Lieber, who are both injured and likely lost for the season, will depart via free agency in the fall. That leaves Cole Hamels, Adam Eaton, and possibly Jamie Moyer and Brett Myers for the rotation. But Moyer could retire and Myers may keep his role as closer so the back end of the rotation is by no means set beyond 2007 (heck, it’s not even set beyond the All-Star break). To make matters worse, there is little to no help on the horizon in the Phillies farm system. Kyle Kendrick has held his own in recent weeks, but until we see more of him, the jury is out.
The trick will be finding a pitcher who is under contract whose team is far enough out of contention — not only for 2007, but also 2008 — that they would be willing to part with him. Scanning the standings, it’s hard to envision a scenario, but when it comes to Pat Gillick, it’s helpful to look at his past history since he often brings in players and front office personnel from his previous stops. Once such stop is Baltimore, and Erik Bedard, who is blossoming into a frontline starter is under control there for two more seasons. Even though Gillick departed before Bedard was drafted, it’s possible that he was on his radar nonetheless.
If the Orioles don’t feel they can retain Bedard long-term, they might be wise to listen to offers and begin another rebuilding.
Tom Goyne is the author of Balls, Sticks, & Stuff, a Phillies-centric site, and maintains the Phloggers’ Pheeds page, a source for the latest commentary from around the "phlogosphere". Recently, he teamed up with his brother to launch Roto Front Office.
Gagne/Otsuka Suitors
Teams are lining up to pluck away the top two members of the Rangers’ bullpen, and Jon Daniels is in "listening mode."
MLB.com’s T.R. Sullivan has the scoop: the Diamondbacks, Cubs, Red Sox, and Yankees are the top suitors for Eric Gagne. The Mets, Braves, Phillies, Tigers, and Brewers are focused on Akinori Otsuka. And the Tribe likes both relievers.
Benefits of Gagne: he can be unhittable and he’ll give you two good draft picks after the season. Plus he seems to be finally healthy. The Indians, despite their interest, are not on Gagne’s list of 12 teams he can be dealt to without his consent.
The benefit of Otsuka is that you have him through 2009. That’s why the Rangers are more likely to hang on to him. Conversely, a team like the Mets would prefer him because he’s not a rental.
Mets After Jose Contreras
The Mets have kicked the tires on Mark Buehrle, but Jose Contreras may be a more likely acquisition according to the Newark Star-Ledger. The Mets would prefer not to trade younger players for a rental, and may turn to Contreras because he’s signed through 2009. I’m sure Kenny Williams would have no problem with that. I think Contreras would handle a return to New York well. Lastings Milledge would be more than enough for Contreras, in my mind.
Dan Graziano’s article also confirms that the Braves and Red Sox have been pushing hard for Buehrle. He says there was "no indication last night that the Yankees were interested in Buehrle." Of course, Boston’s interest could change that.
The Phillies, meanwhile, have inquired on both Dontrelle Willis and Buehrle and found the price unreasonable. They’re going to need to acquire a starter one way or another.
Cardinals Sign Tomo Ohka
According to Ken Rosenthal, the Cardinals have signed free agent righty Tomo Ohka to a minor league contract. The Phillies were in on him as well, but the Cardinals gave him a shorter minor league requirement.
The Cardinals talked to Ohka’s agent last December, but must have found $1.5MM guaranteed to be prohibitive. It’s easier to swallow when the Blue Jays are paying Ohka’s salary. I think Ohka’s rotator cuff is still kind of messed up, but he might be able to get by in the NL Central.
Check out my profile of Ohka here; he’s an interesting character. Unfortunately Ohka likely won’t remain a Memphis Redbird long enough to run into Sun-Woo Kim of the Fresno Grizzlies. The two engaged in fisticuffs back in 2000 as members of the Pawtucket Red Sox.
Gagne’s List
We know Rangers closer Eric Gagne has some kind of no-trade protection in his contract, but further details were unknown. Jon Heyman of SI.com recently clarified a bit.
Apparently Gagne has given the Rangers a list of 12 teams he can be traded to. Heyman says that almost all of those allowable 12 are not in contention or would have no motivation to trade for him. Heyman also believes that the Tigers, Indians, and Phillies are not among the 12 allowable teams. So if one of those wants Gagne, they’ll need his approval and his salary will escalate.
Meanwhile, Bill Madden of the New York Daily News speculates that Lou Piniella might urge Jim Hendry to acquire Gagne to solidify the Cubs’ bullpen.