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Albert Pujols

Quick Hits: Strasburg, Pujols, Wilken

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Weather permitting, Nationals phenom Stephen Strasburg will make his 2011 MLB debut tonight, almost one year from the day of having Tommy John surgery performed on his elbow.  Whether or not Strasmas is cancelled, here are today's links…

  • Strasburg still needs to knock a little rust off his command, Nationals GM Mike Rizzo told ESPN's Jayson Stark.  Stark takes the stance that the Nationals are not rushing Strasburg back.  Stark's colleague Keith Law has a fantastic article discussing the Tommy John procedure and recovery, with help from pitchers Jarrod Parker and Chad Durbin.  For a look at what Strasburg did during his down time and how he's changed in the last year, check out Dave Sheinin's article from the Washington Post.
  • SI's Jon Heyman hears that the Cardinals are "not completely confident" Albert Pujols will remain in St. Louis, which is one reason they didn't trade Lance Berkman (Twitter link).
  • The Chicago Sun-Times talked to Tim Wilken, the Cubs' director of amateur and professional scouting, about the possibility of an extension in the wake of Oneri Fleita's four-year deal.  Such a move would quickly sour many Cubs GM candidates, hears Yahoo's Jeff Passan (Twitter link).  Wilken recently told Baseball America's Phil Rogers that it's been 20 years since he's had the kind of ownership commitment toward draft and international free agent spending that he had in 2011.
  • NPB Tracker's Patrick Newman explains why he's predicted against Yu Darvish being posted in past years, but also outlines why he can see the righty being posted this winter.
  • Tigers righty Doug Fister has "basically turned himself into the modern version of Brad Radke," writes Dave Cameron of FanGraphs.  Does he represent the best acquisition by a contender this summer?  Hunter Pence belongs in that discussion as well.

Rosenthal On Papelbon, Yankees, Fielder, Pujols

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A Marlins shakeup is looming and the focus is on the team's minor league system, says Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports in this week's edition of Full Count.  Jim Fleming, the vice president of player development and scouting, has informed his staff that he will be reassigned.  The club's revenues will grow once they move into their new stadium but they still need to do a better job of producing homegrown talent.  Let's take a look at some more highlights from Full Count..

  • The Red Sox are reluctant to give lucrative long-term contracts to closers, but with Jonathan Papelbon they might not be able to resist.  Papelbon will want an increase from his $12MM salary, perhaps something closer to Mariano Rivera's $15MM average yearly pay.  It's possible that no team will want to go there but Rivera has just one year left on his deal and Rafael Soriano hardly looks like the heir to Mo's throne.  Rosenthal wonders aloud if the Yankees would jump in and offer Papelbon a backloaded deal to take over as closer.
  • The Rangers would seem to be an obvious suitor for Prince Fielder or Albert Pujols, especially in light of Mitch Moreland's recent struggles.  Texas will have to spend on pitching if they lose C.J. Wilson in free agency and they might prefer to keep both their payroll and roster flexible.  Josh Hamilton is only one year away from free agency and Ian Kinsler is only two years away. 
  • The sale of the Astros to Jim Crane is not yet official and some in baseball believe that he will not be approved as owner.  Others, however, view a deal as inevitable.  Current owner Drayton McLane wants out and Crane is offering a fair price for the club.  Perhaps most importantly, there does not appear to be any other bidders.  McLane has been loyal to the commissioner's office and he will want to see that loyalty reciprocated.

Rosenthal On Kubel, Carroll, Ramirez, Fielder, Pujols

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Let's take a look at the latest edition of Full Count from Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports..

  • The free agent market for outfielders is rather thin and after Carlos Beltran, Jason Kubel might be the next most attractive option.  Rosenthal floats the idea of Kubel going to a more hitter-friendly park, such as Fenway where he can replace a departing J.D. Drew.  The Twins want to re-sign Kubel, but he intends to test the market.
  • Veteran Jamey Carroll is on waivers and almost certain to be claimed.  The Dodgers might be more open to dealing Carroll than they were before the July 31st deadline.  Justin Sellers has played well, Dee Gordon should be back soon, and Ivan DeJesus is a candidate for promotion.  The Brewers had interest in him before the trade deadline but they've since acquired Jerry Hairston Jr. and Rickie Weeks will return to action soon.
  • Aramis Ramirez has cleared waivers but he'll remain with the Cubs this month.  His agent, Paul Kinzer, told Rosenthal in July that his client might be open to waiving his no-trade clause in August, but he's since turned red hot and will play it out in Chicago.  He'll be a very interesting decision for the Cubs' next GM and maybe an interesting free agent.
  • Rosenthal says that the choice between Albert Pujols and Prince Fielder is no longer obvious.  Fielder has had the better season and he's nearly four-and-a-half years younger than Pujols.  Still, Pujols has 31 homers and a slugging percentage that's just ten points lower.  The big question for both men is how will they look three years and five years from now.

NL Central Notes: Garcia, Pujols, Pirates, Cozart

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The Brewers acquired C.C. Sabathia on this date in 2008. The left-hander strung together one dominant outing after another and led Milwaukee to its first postseason series since 1982. Here's the latest from the NL Central as we await this summer's first blockbuster deal…

  • When asked about the possibility of signing a contract extension with the Cardinals, Jaime Garcia told B.J. Rains of FOXSportsMidwest.com (on Twitter): "I'm not saying yes or no, but if something is going on, when the time comes, you guys will find out."
  • Now that he has made an exceptionally quick return from the disabled list, Cardinals first baseman Albert Pujols looms as the biggest potential difference-maker in the division, as Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports explains.
  • Manager Clint Hurdle told Gene Collier of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette that the Pirates discussed some external options yesterday, when management met to determine its plan for summer roster moves.
  • Reds GM Walt Jocketty told John Fay of the Cincinnati Enquirer that he isn’t going to make moves for the sake of shaking things up. 
  • Fay points out that someone named Zack Cozart is registered at the Reds’ team hotel (Twitter link). Though it could be a coincidence, it seems likely that the shortstop prospect is getting the call to the big leagues.

Quick Hits: Maholm, Chulk, Cardinals

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Two years ago today, the Indians traded third baseman Mark DeRosa to the Cardinals for Chris Perez, with Jess Todd also going to Cleveland as the player to be named later.  DeRosa injured his wrist shortly after the trade and struggled in his time with the Cards, but they received a consolation prize in righty Seth Blair, chosen in the 2010 draft as compensation when DeRosa signed with the Giants.  Perez has racked up 42 saves as the Indians' closer.  Todd was designated for assignment in April of this year, claimed by the Yankees, designated again in May, claimed by the Cardinals, and recently outrighted to Triple-A.  On to today's links…

  • Rangers reliever Darren O'Day may return this week from the 60-day DL, meaning the team will need to open up a 40-man roster spot.
  • The Red Sox announced they activated righty Junichi Tazawa from the 60-day DL and optioned him to Double-A; lefty Rich Hill was placed on the 60-day DL to keep the 40-man roster at 40.
  • Pirates lefty Paul Maholm reiterated to Karen Price of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review that he'd like to stay in Pittsburgh, but he's not going to beg or initiate extension talks.  In general terms, GM Neal Huntington expressed a strong preference for avoiding in-season negotiations.  He has a $9.75MM option on Maholm for 2012.  For more on the Maholm situation, click here.
  • Athletics reliever Vinnie Chulk can opt out of his contract Friday, notes SI's Jon Heyman (Twitter link).  The 32-year-old righty has a 2.75 ERA, 6.9 K/9, 3.0 BB/9, and 0.2 HR/9 in 39 1/3 Triple-A innings this year.
  • Heyman talked to agents and executives, asking them to predict contracts for Albert Pujols, Prince Fielder, and Jose Reyes.  Everyone sees Pujols getting at least $27.5MM and at least six years.  I have to wonder if he'd prefer a one-year deal if his return is less than stellar.  Meanwhile, most of the participants saw Fielder getting $24-25MM a year and at least five years.
  • The Cardinals could try to acquire two relievers rather than go after a big fish like Heath Bell, writes Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports.

NL Central Notes: Pujols, Valdes, Pirates

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On this date in 1984, Ryne Sandberg hit game-tying home runs off Cardinals reliever Bruce Sutter in the 9th and 10th innings as the Cubs beat the Cardinals 12-11. Willie McGee hit for the cycle in the memorable contest between the rival clubs. Here's the latest from their division…

Albert Pujols Injury Reaction

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The Cardinals will lose Albert Pujols for four to six weeks with a small fracture in his left arm. Here's the latest reaction to the news, which could affect the Cardinals' approach to the trade deadline this summer and the first baseman's first free agent contract after the season:

  • When he returns, Pujols may face the biggest pressure of any prospective free agent in the history of the game, writes ESPN's Buster Olney.  One NL evaluator opined that the fracture could cost him $50MM or more, as many wrist injuries are career-altering. 
  • Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports doesn't expect that the injury will affect Pujols' free agent value as long as he returns in time to prove his health. "The only way the injury will damage his position in the marketplace is if it affects his long-term ability as a hitter," Rosenthal writes, "and does anyone really see that happening?"
  • Yahoo's Jeff Passan argues that it's time for GM John Mozeliak to work out an extension with Pujols, who belongs in a Cardinals uniform. One agent suggests an eight-year, $224MM deal for Pujols, who appeared to want $300MM before the season.
  • Dave Cameron of FanGraphs says that the Cardinals will be able to get by without Pujols by playing Jon Jay every day and shifting Lance Berkman to first base.
  • My take on Pujols' free agent value: he had better hope the Cardinals stay in the race without him, since a standout postseason performance like the one Carlos Beltran had in 2004 could catapult his free agent value back into $300MM territory.

Tim Dierkes contributed to this post.

NL Central Notes: Pujols, Bell, Brewers

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Albert Pujols will miss four to six weeks with a fracture in his left arm, further confirmation that no NL Central club appears ready to run away with the division. The 40-33 Brewers would deal a catcher, the defending champion Reds are eyeing arms and the Pirates are lurking around the .500 mark. Here's the rest of tonight's NL Central-related news…

  • Cardinals GM John Mozeliak told Matthew Leach of MLB.com that he isn't ready to determine how aggressive the Cardinals will be in trade talks leading up to the July 31st deadline. The GM acknowledged that Pujols' injury opens "some potential opportunities out there that maybe [the team] wouldn't have explored 48 hours ago."
  • Here's more reaction to Pujols' injury from earlier tonight.
  • Jim Callis of Baseball America hears that Pirates draft pick Josh Bell is set on going to the University of Texas, where he has committed to playing. Despite that, Callis likes the pick for Pittsburgh, which should have plenty of money to dangle in the prospect's direction.
  • Adam McCalvy and Audrey Snyder of MLB.com explain how one lucky Brewers fan signed a one-day contract with his favorite team.

Heyman On Reyes, Rodriguez, A’s, Minaya

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We know that Mets owner Fred Wilpon doesn’t think Jose Reyes is a $142MM player, but how do other insiders see it? Jon Heyman of SI.com hears from five MLB executives who estimate Reyes will sign for somewhere between $45-108MM after the season when he hits free agency. Here’s the latest from around the majors, with a focus on Reyes’ Mets:

  • Francisco Rodriguez, who can veto trades to ten teams, told Heyman that he understands baseball is “a business” and deals happen.
  • There’s no chance the Mariners trade Felix Hernandez now that they’re playing better, according to Heyman.
  • If the White Sox make a starter available, Edwin Jackson could be the one to hit the trade market, as he’s eligible for free agency after the season. 
  • Over the weekend, MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk weighed in on what a “bad” season would mean for Albert Pujols. Heyman says Pujols will surely do well even if his off-year continues, since the Cardinals “aren't going to lower their offer of nine years and more than $200MM.”
  • Ivan Rodriguez repeated that he wants to play three more years.
  • Despite the recent controversy involving A’s manager Bob Geren and relievers Brian Fuentes and Huston Street, Heyman says the skipper “isn't going anywhere.”
  • The Indians are one of a few teams that has shown interest in former Mets and Expos GM Omar Minaya.

What A “Bad” Season Does For Albert Pujols

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With all of the discussion surrounding what Albert Pujols may earn in free agency this winter, the common factor that everyone counted on was that Pujols would…well, continue to hit like Albert Pujols in his contract year.  There was no reason to expect that 2011 would be any different from Pujols' usual superlative campaign, given his history of good health and incredibly consistent performance.

Though 46 games into 2011, however, the Machine hasn't yet kicked into full gear.  Entering Saturday's action, Pujols had seven homers and a .266/.338/.412 line.  These are above-average numbers (a 109 OPS+) compared to the average player but they're far below Pujols' career norms.  To give you an idea of how amazing Pujols has been in his career, his current .751 OPS is a whopping .290 points below his career 162-game average of 1.041.

Pujols has been a bit unlucky this year (a .260 BABIP) and in all likelihood, the slugger's final 2011 stats will be close to his usual Cooperstown-level standard.  But for a player that is hoping to sign a historic free agent contract this winter, any drop in form is a big setback.  Suppose, for a moment, that Pujols doesn't heat up and he finishes the season with a .750 OPS — what would such a performance do to the "Albertageddon" market this offseason?

Though Pujols' record of production and durability is almost unmatched in baseball history, one average year drops his price tag considerably.  Suddenly, more teams consider the wisdom of giving a mammoth deal to a player who turns 32 next season and who might already be on the decline.  With a .750 OPS season, Pujols' target suddenly goes from the heights of matching Alex Rodriguez's record deal with the Yankees to trying to match Adrian Gonzalez's seven-year, $154MM deal with the Red Sox.  Even with a poor season, Pujols should still be able to match Gonzalez's contract given that teams like the Cubs and Nationals could be in the bidding this winter and both teams have a history of overpaying for veterans they really want.

Oddly enough, a weak season would probably increase the chances of Pujols staying in St. Louis.  While Pujols undoubtedly would be confident of a return to form in 2012, he also doesn't want to spend his final years in a new city being booed as a contractual millstone around his new team's neck.  In St. Louis, even if Pujols does decline, he'll always be a local hero.  The Cardinals reportedly offered something akin to a nine-year deal worth $200MM last spring, and I could see the Cards making a new offer with a roughly-similar average annual value (say, $20-$25MM per season) but only for five or six guaranteed years.  With an offer like that plus the bonus of being a St. Louis icon for the rest of his life, Pujols could very well accept and choose to try and rebound in a familiar environment.

Another intriguing possibility is that Pujols might go in the other direction and take on more risk in the wake of a letdown year.  What if Pujols looked for a one-year, $28.5MM deal this winter?  It would give Pujols a chance to prove himself worthy of a multiyear deal, give agent Dan Lozano bragging rights at topping the average annual value of Roger Clemens' $28MM contract in 2007, and it would considerably increase the list of potential suitors.  Even if Pujols faltered in 2012, he'd still have one year's worth of a big payday under his belt, and given his career achievements, could still find something like a two-year, $40MM deal in the 2012-13 offseason.

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