Possible Kearns/Westbrook Swap
Reds interim GM Brad Kullman certainly seems more open-minded than his predecessor, Dan O’Brien. But one of O’Brien’s final non-moves may have been one of his few wise ones. Sheldon Ocker’s Beacon Journal article today reports that O’Brien turned down an Austin Kearns for Jake Westbrook all-Ohio trade prior to his firing.
Such a one for one trade would lean heavily towards the Indians, in my opinion. Here’s my reasoning.
The 25 year-old Kearns has yet to reach his potential, while Westbrook has topped out at age 28. Let’s look at 2005. In just 387 at-bats, Kearns was worth 3.6 wins. Westbrook was worth 3.8, but that was in a full season. Kullman has said that Kearns stands to get 550 ABs in 2006. If Kearns could maintain his .240/.333/.452 line and his defense over that many at-bats, he’d be a 5.1 win right fielder. That kind of production could make him the 8th best RF in the game, and I’m assuming no improvement.
However, it stands to reason that Kearns will indeed improve given the full-time job in ’06. My projection has him hitting .257 with 22 HR and 83 RBI in 486 at-bats this season. PECOTA sees an even bigger jump, to .275/.367/.510 in 459 plate appearances (21 HR). Bill James weighs in with .270/.363/.497 in 392 ABs, and ZiPS went with .258/.349/.480 in 431 ABs. PECOTA lists Pat Burrell and Dale Murphy among his comps. This is a player on the rise, and he makes $1.85MM.
Westbrook’s ability lies somewhere between his 3.38 ERA in 2004 and his 4.49 ERA last year. He’s a solid 210 inning guy, and an extreme groundball pitcher. Projections:
RotoAuthority: 3.98 ERA in 213 IP
PECOTA: 3.97 ERA in 199 IP
James: 3.91 ERA in 211 IP
ZiPS: 4.02 ERA in 195 IP
Wow. That’s as close to a consensus as four projection systems can get. But here’s the rub. In 2005, the Indians had the 3rd best defense in baseball. The Reds had the 3rd worst. Kullman might think he needs groundball pitchers to succeed in a park that inflates HRs by 16%, but that won’t work with a crappy defense. Westbrook does keep the ball in the park, but that’s only half the battle. The Reds need a guy who also misses bats. Westbrook’s $4.25MM salary for 2006 and $5.6MM option for ’07 are quite reasonable, however.
Some fine alternatives for the Reds would’ve been Josh Beckett and Esteban Loaiza. While neither would’ve come cheaply, both are built to succeed in Great American Ballpark. Out of possible remaining trade candidates, I think Matt Clement and Brad Penny could prosper as Reds. If the Dodgers were to send Jayson Werth elsewhere, it could open up some room for Kearns. The Red Sox would do well to groom a replacement for Trot Nixon.
Should the Indians add Kearns and Marte for Westbrook and Crisp this offseason, they’ll have improved their team while also making it younger and cheaper, a rare feat. What’s more, a Millwood-esque signing of Jeff Weaver could keep the starting rotation five-deep with 200 inning guys, a model perfected by the White Sox.
Update: Kearns For Jerome Williams
According to Bruce Levine of ESPN Radio 1000, the Austin Kearns trade talk has gotten serious and Jerome Williams, not Sergio Mitre, would be included in the deal.
This new incarnation of the deal seems more equitable. Unlike Mitre, Williams has had success in the Major Leagues in his career. He pitched 106 innings after being dealt to the Cubs for LaTroy Hawkins, posting a 3.91 ERA and 1.35 WHIP. Williams posted a spectacular 2.10 ERA in five September starts.
Thanks to Alex
Austin Kearns For Sergio Mitre?
George Ofman of WSCR The Score is reporting from the winter meetings that the Reds have offered Austin Kearns to the Cubs in return for Sergio Mitre and and a minor leaguer. I was able to get in touch with Ofman, and he mentioned that the minor leaguer was possibly righthander Ricky Nolasco.
Kearns is still living off an excellent 2000 at A ball and 372 fluky at-bats with the Reds in 2002. He’s got 25 HR pop, but the rest of his appeal is pure perceived potential. Ah, alliteration.
Sergio Mitre has had an uninspiring Major League career with the Cubs, going 4-10 with a 6.12 ERA in 120 innings. If nothing else, Mitre can tell his grandkids about that miraculous 16 shutout inning stretch where he outdueled both Roy Halladay and Josh Beckett in 2005. Seriously, though, Mitre keeps the ball down and could be passable fifth starter one day.
Ricky Nolasco was almost traded to Texas in a Rafael Palmeiro deal back in 2003. Palmeiro vetoed the trade, and Nolasco remained in the Cubs’ system. He has a solid curveball and decent sinker. Nolasco will be 23 soon, and he posted spectacular numbers at Double A in 2005. The starter had previously failed in a 40 inning attempt at Triple A Iowa in 2004.
Thanks to Alex.