Olney: Braves Interested In Arroyo
ESPN’s Buster Olney heard a rumor: the Braves are interested in Bronson Arroyo. Olney believes the Reds would demand Jarrod Saltalamacchia. Personally, I think Salty can bring someone better. And using him at first base isn’t the worst idea in the world, if no one knocks John Schuerholz’s socks off.
Arroyo is the definition of an innings eater, and he’s signed at about market rate. On second thought, $10MM a year for him might be slightly below-market. Atlanta got a good look at Arroyo last night, as the 30 year-old hurler had his best start of the season (seven scoreless innings). Arroyo has been solid in his last five starts, though he did get to face the Cardinals and Giants.
So, are there any Braves fans out there who would trade Salty for Arroyo?
Reds Could Trade Arroyo
Just a small note in Nick Cafardo’s recent column: the Reds could trade 30 year-old starter Bronson Arroyo.
Last year, Arroyo took the National League by storm by posting a 3.29 ERA in a whopping 240 innings. He led all of baseball with 3851 pitches thrown. Either the league started figuring him out this year, or the workload caught up to him and contributing to his declining strikeout rate. Maybe a little of both.
In February of this year, Wayne Krivsky signed Arroyo to a contract extension for 2009-10. Under his previous contract he’ll get $3.95MM in ’08, and the Reds added a $2.5MM signing bonus to that. He’ll make $9.5MM in ’09, $11MM in ’10, and has an $11MM club option for ’11 with a $2MM buyout attached. So basically think $29MM for 2008-10. It’s not terrible but not a bargain; $10MM is probably the going rate for a guy like Arroyo these days. Not bad for a guy waived by the Pirates in ’03.
Woody Paige considers Arroyo one option for the Rockies, but finds it unlikely. The only past Arroyo trade rumor I know of was back in December of ’05, when he was rumored to be going to Seattle for Jeremy Reed. The Mariners remain in the hunt for a starter, but Arroyo probably isn’t viewed as much more than an innings-eater by most clubs. Some other teams possibly looking for a starter include the Braves, Padres, Phillies, Brewers, Dodgers, and Diamondbacks.
Reds Sign Bronson Arroyo Through 2010
According to Baseball Digest Daily, the Reds and Bronson Arroyo have agreed to a two-year contract extension through 2010 with a club option for 2011. RotoWorld has the financial details.
Arroyo will make $3.8MM in 2007 and $3.95MM in 2008 under a deal signed with Boston before he was traded. PECOTA says Arroyo will be worth about $15.5MM for 2009-10. BP’s system finds him most comparable to Jack McDowell, minus the middle finger thing. I wonder if PECOTA matched up the fact that they’ve both put CDs out.
Reds Sign Bronson Arroyo Through 2010
According to Baseball Digest Daily, the Reds and Bronson Arroyo have agreed to a two-year contract extension through 2010 with a club option for 2011. RotoWorld has the financial details.
Arroyo will make $3.8MM in 2007 and $3.95MM in 2008 under a deal signed with Boston before he was traded. PECOTA says Arroyo will be worth about $15.5MM for 2009-10. BP’s system finds him most comparable to Jack McDowell, minus the middle finger thing. I wonder if PECOTA matched up the fact that they’ve both put CDs out.
Wily Mo Traded For Arroyo
It’s official: the Red Sox have sent Bronson Arroyo to the Reds for Wily Mo Pena. This is an intriguing trade.
The Reds needed a solid affordable starter like Arroyo. It’s unclear yet which Reds starter will be pushed out of the rotation. Eric Milton is terrible but well paid. Paul Wilson will probably begin the year on the DL, so the club won’t have to sort things out until he returns.
So far in his career, Arroyo has done an above average job keeping the ball in the park with a 0.95 HR/9 in 588 innings. This will come in handy in Great American Ballpark. Still, as U.S.S. Mariner points out, he’s a flyball pitcher entering a home run ballpark with Ken Griffey Jr. as his centerfielder. Not a great mix.
You’d have to imagine Arroyo is less than amused after signing a three-year, $11.25MM deal out of loyalty for the Red Sox. This is one case where a player should’ve listened to his agents.
Fenway Park provides a 13% HR boost for righties like Pena. Of course, Great American had a similar effect on him. Here’s a look at some projections for Pena. I know he’s touted as a 40 HR candidate right now, but something in the low 30s would be more reasonable even if he gets 550 ABs. For fantasy geeks, Pena could certainly top 100 RBIs for the first time if he gets to hit in the heart of the order and isn’t platooned.
Red Sox After Craig Wilson?
Sometimes all it takes is an educated guess to put two and two together. Hell, maybe Theo and Dave got the idea from this site yesterday – sort of a GM matchmaker (alright, that’s wishful thinking). But it’s always interesting when speculation turns to real trade talks.
Yesterday I mentioned:
"If the Pirates want Arroyo back, Craig Wilson would be a decent fit given that Youkilis can play third…the Pirates have two vacancies in their rotation but a host of candidates to fill them."
Then today in Rob Rossi’s article for the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review, he revealed that the Pirates are trying to trade Wilson for a starter, possibly Matt Clement or Bronson Arroyo. For the Bucs, I like the idea. Sure, their offense could use a guy like Wilson, but if they must discard him they should at least solidify the rotation.
A Pittsburgh rotation of Clement/Duke/Perez/Maholm/Snell has a chance to be quite impressive. It might be five guys with ERAs hovering around 4, but that’s actually hard to find when the average NL starter has a 4.22 ERA.
The Red Sox seem to be anticipating an injury for Trot Nixon or a failure by Mike Lowell, and expecting at least one of the two is the safe play. The club needs a player like Wilson, who can handle both right field and first base and has an .851 career OPS.
Assuming the White Sox plan to hold on to Jose Contreras, I think they might have it right. That is, there’s nothing wrong with an overload of starting pitchers. The White Sox shouldn’t expect their front five to be completely healthy and effective once again. Similarly, the Red Sox don’t necessarily have a surplus with Arroyo/Beckett/Clement/Papelbon/Schilling/Wakefield/Wells all capable of starting. Yes, that’s seven pitchers, but three of them are injury risks and Papelbon is unproven.
Griffey To Boston For Arroyo?
Well, Boston Dirt Dogs has an interesting one up just now. Boston’s WEEI 850 is reporting that a possible Ken Griffey Jr. for Bronson Arroyo trade could be in the works. I’ll do my best to find more.
On the surface, that seems like a terrible deal for the Red Sox. Arroyo is about to be locked in for three years at a great price, and Griffey is probably a lock to play less games in ’06 than he did in ’05. Not to mention Griffey’s huge contract and lousy defense.
Cubs/Red Sox/Mariners Trade Possible
A reliable source told me today about a three-way deal that is "imminent." It’s always risky to throw around "imminent," but I’m just quoting him here.
Here’s the scenario:
BOS gives: Bronson Arroyo, Tony Graffanino, PTBNL
BOS gets: Jeremy Reed, Will Ohman
CHC gives: Corey Patterson, Ohman
CHC gets: Raul Ibanez, Graffanino, cash
SEA gives: Reed, Ibanez, cash
SEA gets: Arroyo, Patterson, PTBNL
Let’s evaluate. There’s no doubt the Cubs would be making out like bandits in this trade. Corey Patterson is useless to them, even as a fourth outfielder. 28 year-old lefty Ohman tossed a solid 43 innings this year, and seems recovered from his January 2002 Tommy John surgery.
But Chicago’s bounty seems to outweigh the former phenom and useful southpaw. Ibanez is on the hook for just $4.25MM in 2006, and the 33 year-old is probably good for a .290/.350/.460 line in 2006. He played 55 games in left field for the Mariners in 2005. I’ve projected him at .288 with 21 HR, 84 RBI, 89 runs, and 8 steals for 2006. Graffanino could probably chip in with some decent on-base skills from 2B or a utility role.
My Arroyo projection has him leading the Red Sox in wins with 16. Arroyo does a good job limiting his baserunners and should have an ERA under 4. I don’t think Safeco would have a major effect on his numbers. Reed should continue to improve all facets of his game in ’06, and would be a nice pickup for the Red Sox.
There may be a holdup in the deal because the Red Sox want to trade before Graffanino and Arroyo hit arbitration, and the Cubs want to wait. The word is that Mariners GM Bill Bavasi is strangely infatuated with Corey Patterson. If that’s the case, Hendry should strike while the iron is hot. I don’t have any information on where Matt Murton would find himself if the proposed trade takes place, but he wouldn’t have a starting gig for the Cubs.
New Manny Scenario Discussed?
A source close to the Mets organization has supplied me with a possible trade scenario that is being discussed. It’s complicated, but I thought I’d put it out there.
Mets trade: Aaron Heilman, Cliff Floyd, Victor Diaz, Brian Bannister
Mets get: Manny Ramirez
TB trades: Julio Lugo, Joey Gathright
TB receives: Aaron Heilman, Victor Diaz, Bronson Arroyo
Red Sox trade: Manny Ramirez, Bronson Arroyo
Red Sox receive: Julio Lugo, Joey Gathright, Cliff Floyd, Brian Bannister
Wow. I’m not sure if this is any more plausible than the other complicated possibilities floating around, but this is a solid source. Let’s see if it passes the reality test.
The Mets give up Heilman, Floyd, Diaz, and Bannister for Manny. That’s a huge bounty, but the only real gem there is Heilman. Plus, Manny is still a superstar. Diaz is a good outfield prospect, and Bannister is a B level starter with a low ceiling. Floyd is a year away from free agency and expendable if Manny is acquired. The Mets could always try to get Manny and keep Floyd, but Floyd hasn’t played RF since 2002. I would say this portion is not too far-fetched.
How about Tampa Bay’s side of things? First off, my guess is that upper management would be reluctant to package Lugo and Gathright together. As with the Huff/Baez rumors, why not just trade them separately and maximize the return? The demand is certainly there. Lugo is a hot commodity right now, and the Rays have been asking for a lot of Gathright (Scott Olsen?). Arroyo would make a great #2 for TB; I’ve projected him to lead the Red Sox in wins in 2006. The team doesn’t have a need for Diaz in a stacked outfield. Then again, he’d be a decent fit at first base. They’d probably love to have Heilman in the rotation or closing games. Overall, I’d label this part of the trade as somewhat questionable.
The Red Sox are basically getting three quality Major Leaguers in return for a superstar and a promising young starter. Given Floyd’s injury record and impending free agency, I can see his inclusion. Gathright hasn’t proven anything at the Major League level yet; only Lugo is a known quantity, and he’s also got free agency looming. So if you look at it that way, things seem fair for the Red Sox. The Mets might even have to throw in some cash to make this work for the Sox.