Mets Rumors: A-Rod, Kim, Silva, Kuroda
Plenty of new hot stove talk involving the Mets. Let’s get into it.
- First off, there’s the fact that Omar Minaya met with Scott Boras yesterday. Minaya says he talked to Boras about all the players he represents. Besides Mr. Rodriguez, Eric Gagne, Byung-Hyun Kim, Kenny Rogers, and Kyle Lohse may be considerations for the Mets. Indeed, there is some buzz that the Mets could bring Kim in to compete for a rotation spot.
- So what about A-Rod? He’d cost the Mets a ton of money, plus the #22 overall pick in the 2008 draft. It sounds like the Mets may hear Boras out as a courtesy, and even put in an offer they feel is reasonable. That number might fall far short of what it will take, as did theirs for Daisuke Matsuzaka and Barry Zito a year ago. That said, Mets insiders aren’t afraid of the full retail price of Rodriguez.
- The top priority remains pitching. Carlos Silva, Tom Glavine, Hiroki Kuroda, and A.J. Burnett are on the radar. On the relief side, Chad Cordero and Jon Rauch could again be in the mix. The Nats’ are said to have their eye on Carlos Gomez and Mike Pelfrey. Gomez is a hot topic these days – the Twins want him too, and could offer up Matt Garza, Kevin Slowey, or Scott Baker.
Hitoki Iwase, Carlos Silva On Cubs’ Wish List
According to Chris De Luca of the Chicago Sun-Times, the Cubs’ plans this winter involve a heavy focus on Japan. As you already know, they’re all over Kosuke Fukudome, Hiroki Kuroda, and Kaz Matsui.
Another name to add to the list: lefty closer Hitoki Iwase. The Cubs have reportedly heavily scouted Iwase and Kuroda. The Cubs’ closer situation is wide open, with Ryan Dempster moving to the starting rotation.
De Luca also reports that the Cubs will inquire on head of the class free agent starter Carlos Silva. Silva shares an agent with Carlos Zambrano. No one expects Silva to come cheaper than four years, $40MM. The Cubs showed last year that they were willing to invest that kind of money in starting pitching. Their efforts may be bolstered by their success in importing Ted Lilly from the AL.
Also, a possible trade could be developing with the Rays. Tampa Bay is looking to add a shortstop, but the free agent crop is already down to just David Eckstein, Cesar Izturis, and the wild card Alexei Ramirez. Eckstein isn’t the defensive-minded the guy the Rays covet, and he’d be too expensive anyway. Marc Topkin names four possible trade targets for the Rays: Erick Aybar, Ronny Cedeno, Chin-Ling Hu, and Brent Lillibridge. The Cubs are known to have interest in Carl Crawford. The two parties might have a starting point in Cedeno, but quality pitching like Rich Hill and/or Carlos Marmol would have to be added to the package.
Silva Rises To Top Of Free Agent Starter Market
About a year ago, the Twins were seriously debating whether to exercise Carlos Silva‘s $4MM option for 2007. After all, he’d posted a ghastly 5.94 ERA in 180 innings in 2006. His 246 hits allowed was among the highest totals in baseball that year.
What difference a year makes. Silva posted a solid 4.19 ERA in 202 innings, a performance more in line with his career marks. As a result he’s arguably the best available free agent starter this winter and stands to snag a contract of at least four years and $40MM (with no cost in draft picks). La Velle E. Neal III says the Twins want him back, and Bill Smith is already talking about the intangibles the team offers for him. The Twins may balk at even $8MM annually.
Neal notes that the Diamondbacks, Braves, Cubs, Mets, and Phillies had interest in trading for Silva this summer. That pretty well sums it up. We can probably add the Reds to the mix. Looking at Nick Cafardo’s recent summary, the Devil Rays, Blue Jays, Tigers, Astros, Cardinals, and Dodgers all seek to add veteran starting pitching. Silva typically ranks in the top 20 for groundball rate, so he may try to avoid stadiums with artificial turf.
Carlos Silva Wants Four Years
UPDATE, 10-26-07: Joe Christensen of the Minneapolis Star-Tribune debunks Walters’ report of the offer. No offer has been made to Silva, though 3/21 sounds like a reasonable starting point. Christensen also has some Torii Hunter tidbits regarding a cryptic quote he made.
FROM 10-24-07:
Charley Walters notes today that the Twins offered Carlos Silva a three-year deal worth slightly more than $7MM per year. That offer attempts to equate Silva with Miguel Batista, Adam Eaton, and Jason Marquis from last year’s free agent starting pitcher class.
However, Silva wants a four-year contract. Rightfully so. Last year Kei Igawa, Daisuke Matsuzaka, Ted Lilly, Gil Meche, and Jeff Suppan received four years or more. We can toss out the unique situations of Igawa and Dice-K, leaving Lilly, Meche, and Suppan as Silva’s comparables. Silva is younger than any of them and his fine 2007 sets the bar at four years, $40MM. Stretching that to $42-44MM would not be ridiculous. Silva shouldn’t be compared to the three-year group given his age, effectiveness, and health.
Silva’s supposed status as a Type B free agent should make him more attractive as well. Last summer, teams such as the Phillies, Cubs, Braves, Diamondbacks, and Mets had trade interest in him.
Latest Silva, Hunter Rumors
Aaron Gleeman and La Velle E. Neal III have combined for some good Twins rumorage in recent days. Let’s catch up.
Neal had an interesting post yesterday with plenty of Twins hot stove banter. The Twins have talked to Torii Hunter‘s agent since he rejected their 3/45 offer, but have yet to tender a better offer. The club is also talking to Carlos Silva‘s agent as they’d like to retain him. Neal feels that both players will at least test the open market.
Hunter has seemingly been connected to half the teams in baseball; you can see all posts involving him here. Today Gleeman added another club to the mix: the Reds. Gleeman’s source talks to Dusty Baker, who has suggested the Reds might be interested. That’d create a definite outfielder surplus in Cincy.
Gleeman also weighed in on Silva’s asking price, which he expects to be in the $40MM range (I imagine over four years). I agree…it’s a bleak market when Silva is one of the best available, but that’s just how it is this year.
Carlos Silva: Type B Free Agent?
The Twins will most certainly offer arbitration to pitcher Carlos Silva, and he will decline (since he can easily get a three or four-year deal on the open market). This will entitle the Twins to receive a draft pick or two as compensation.
If Silva ranks in the upper 20% of starting pitchers, he’s a Type A free agent. If he ranks in the upper 40% but not in the upper 20%, he’s a Type B. Charley Walters of the St. Paul Pioneer Press says Silva will be classified as a Type B based on his work in the 2006-07 seasons (he had a 5.01 ERA and 24 wins over that time period). That means the Twins will gain just a supplemental draft pick for him but the signing team will not lose any picks.
Walters also gives us this gem:
If the Twins can’t re-sign free agent Torii Hunter, plans are to trade, sign a free agent or go in-house to find his center field replacement.
As opposed to what?
Phillies Have $20MM To Burn
The Philadelphia Inquirer’s Todd Zolecki tallied up the Phillies’ commitments and determined that they have roughly $20MM free to spend on pitching, third base, and perhaps Aaron Rowand. Zolecki feels that the Phils would choose to let Rowand walk if they couldn’t fit it all in the budget.
Zolecki mentions Mike Lowell as a possibility for the hot corner; that’d run $8-12MM for ’08 depending on how you backload it. Lowell seems in line for at least two years, $22MM. Gordon Edes has speculated that it could require a three or four year commitment. The Phillies at least fall under the teams on Lowell’s list, it appears.
The other $10MM or so might all have to go toward a starting pitcher. The Phillies have Jamie Moyer, Adam Eaton, Cole Hamels, and Kyle Kendrick locked in. If the Phils don’t like the free agent market (they had interest in reacquiring Carlos Silva this summer), they could pursue Jon Garland or Dontrelle Willis via trade. The Phils have also scouted Anthony Reyes.
That doesn’t leave any money for Andruw Jones, despite recent speculation.
Phillies Interested In Carlos Silva
Carlos Silva came up through the Phillies’ farm system, switching to relief for his big league debut. He remained an innings-eating reliever throughout his Phillies tenure, though his hittable, low strikeout style was not suited to the pen.
In December of ’03 the Phils sent Silva and Nick Punto over to the Twins for Eric Milton. The following season he racked up 14 wins as a starter. His pinpoint control has made him a very credible back-rotation guy, aside from a rough ’06.
Joining Silva in the under-30 starting pitcher free agent class will be Jason Jennings, Joe Kennedy, Byung-Hyun Kim, Kyle Lohse, and Joel Pineiro. Silva’s the most reliable choice, and he might be able to snag a four-year pact given the weak market. He’s having a well-timed fine year with a 4.10 ERA in 164.2 innings.
The Phillies have been looking to reacquire Silva for some time now; I believe they had interest last winter after the Twins exercised his $4MM option. Now La Velle E. Neal III of the Minneapolis Star-Tribune writes of Philadelphia’s continued interest. The Phils inquired before the July 31 deadline, and would still like to acquire Silva. Neal believes he has not yet been placed on waivers and would not clear them. It seems that Terry Ryan missed his chance to extract strong trade value for Silva, though he may have fielded offers and found two draft picks preferable.
I can’t see Silva getting to the Phillies without the Braves, Dodgers, Rockies, Tigers, and Mariners first putting in a claim.
Cubs, Braves, D’Backs, Mets Interested In Carlos Silva
According to Phil Rogers of the Chicago Tribune, the Cubs have some interest in adding Twins’ starter Carlos Silva for some rotation insurance. Despite the lack of strikeouts, I think Silva could put up an ERA below 4.50 in the NL Central.
La Velle E. Neal III of the Minneapolis Star-Tribune mentions the Cubs, Braves, Mets, and Diamondbacks as teams that like Silva. He could be used as a starter or reliever.
Rosenthal’s Latest: Dunn, Wheeler, Izzy
Ken Rosenthal posted a new column last night, and has updated it very recently. I’ve already spoken about the Teixeira stuff, but there’s other good material in there too.
- Some of the wilder speculation out there has been that the Twins might trade Torii Hunter or Johan Santana if they decide they’re out of it. Various Baseball Prospectus reports put the Twins’ playoff chances between 5-10%. Rosenthal debunks the idea that Minnesota would shop Hunter without first making him an offer, and keeping Santana for at least 2008 makes sense. Plus, Santana has a no-trade clause.
- Rosenthal does have some Twins for us who might be traded: Luis Castillo and Carlos Silva. Castillo has already been connected to the Mets in rumors, though Silva is a new one. One could definitely envision Silva’s style working in the National League (I know, I say that a lot). There was a recent Silva to Atlanta rumor, though Silva’s agent seems to have debunked it.
- Rosenthal says Dontrelle Willis is not available. Perhaps he and Tim Brown will engage in fisticuffs over this disagreement.
- The Diamondbacks have kicked the tires on Adam Dunn. He might make sense as a rental – the D’Backs playoff changes sit between 16-27%, worth fighting for. No doubt they’ve got a stable of young players to offer.
- Rosenthal says the Astros have yet to receive interest on the Lidge/Wheeler/Qualls troika, while Jayson Stark said yesterday that the Astros hadn’t opened shop on them. Thunderdome match #2, Rosenthal vs. Stark. Assuming Ken survives Tim Brown. Anyway, word is that the Rockies have their eye on Wheeler.
- Parties interested in Zack Greinke: Diamondbacks, Dodgers, Braves, and Cubs. This gels with Dan Graziano’s findings. Of course, trading a player like Greinke requires an equally talented youngster in return.
- The Royals may not be able to do better than Cleveland’s Ben Francisco as a bounty for Octavio Dotel. More on him in a separate post.
- Trades of Joe Blanton and Huston Street are "highly unlikely." So you’re saying there’s a chance?
- The chances of the Cardinals trading Jason Isringhausen are described as "remote." The Cards would have a hard time replacing him next year; he’s got a reasonable $8MM option. He also has no-trade protection, so he’d probably want a better extension if he was to accept a trade.