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Cliff Lee

Cliff Lee Signing Reactions

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Just 24 hours ago, we didn't know the Phillies were even pursuing Cliff Lee. They've since agreed to sign the left-hander to a five-year deal worth $120MM, and the reactions have been streaming in from around the web. MLBTR's Tim Dierkes pointed out some things we learned about the signing, the fallout for other teams, and some possible fits for Joe Blanton. Here are some other reactions from around the web:

  • As ESPN.com's Jayson Stark says, "the Phillies had to station themselves strategically just off to the side of Lee's massive stage so that no one ever noticed them." It sure seemed like the Rangers or Yankees would end up signing the left-hander.
  • Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports argues that the Phillies' turnaround should inspire more clubs to operate similarly and says the Rangers, Twins and Nationals are making progress.
  • Joel Sherman of the New York Post suggests that "though the 2014 Yankees might benefit from not having another high-paid, aging player such as Lee, the 2011 Yankees are sure to be hurt by his absence."
  • In a separate piece, Sherman argues that the Red Sox and, especially, the Phillies deserve credit for joining the Yankees in the "uber-team" category.
  • Jon Paul Morosi of FOX Sports says the offseason starts anew today, since Lee's unavailable and the Yankees and Rangers are among the teams with major needs.
  • Yahoo's Jeff Passan says Lee is baseball's newest hero, an "antidote for a baseball-viewing public tired of the Yankees throwing around free-agent dollars like toy money."
  • ESPN.com's Keith Law says there's an opportunity for a GM to capitalize on a pitching-thin market by trading a starter when no one expects it.
  • Dave Cameron of FanGraphs gives Phillies GM Ruben Amaro Jr. credit for acquiring a top pitcher at the right time. 
  • Newsday's Ken Davidoff calls the deal "mind-blowing," since players so rarely turn away from tens of millions of dollars. As Davidoff says, the Yankees must be crushed, regardless of what they say publicly. 

Cliff Lee Signing: The Fallout

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Cliff Lee's unexpected five-year, $120MM deal with the Phillies has repercussions for several teams. 

Rangers

Yankees

  •  From Joel Sherman of the New York Post: "One Yankees executive likened what they now face as losing out on Microsoft stock and instead having to diversify the portfolio to keep it strong."  The Yanks have added Russell Martin and will probably look into innings-eaters or reclamation project starters.  They're also expected to add two relievers and a righty-hitting fourth outfielder.  So, they'll spread the wealth.
  • GM Brian Cashman preached that "Plan B is patience."  He feels that prices will go up with teams, and I assume agents, sensing blood in the water.  He's also willing to wait until the season to make an acquisition.
  • Cashman says Lee's decision "doesn't affect" Andy Pettitte, who remains undecided but is feeling the pull of retirement a little stronger than normal.
  • Cashman talked about the failed Lee trade from July and said he's grateful it didn't happen.  At this point, he says "It would be a rare situation for me to include Montero in a deal."

Phillies

They'll look to move Joe Blanton before Opening Day; CSNPhilly's Jim Salisbury tweets that there is no rush.  Nonetheless, we've already looked at potential trade partners.  Blanton's agent Casey Close expects a trade.

Other Teams

Cliff Lee Signing: What We Learned

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It's safe to say that prior to yesterday, not many people were predicting Cliff Lee would sign a five-year deal with the Phillies.  The Yankees essentially offered Lee $148MM over seven years, so he turned down two more years and an extra $28MM in guaranteed money.  Here's what we learned:

  • It's unfair to make assumptions about a player's priorities.  There was a lot of talk about how Lee's number one goal was the biggest possible contract.  We also heard about how the Rangers had the advantage of playing near Lee's Arkansas home.  Now it appears the player's comfort with a previous team trumped all else, but we'll wait until Lee explains his choice at the press conference.
  • Players can leave big money on the table.  Before Lee, the best recent example of a player signing a far below-market contract was Roy Halladay's three-year, $60MM extension with the Phillies.  It's rarer in free agency, but Mark Teixeira reportedly turned down the best offer two years ago.  This winter, Jorge de la Rosa, Jake Westbrook, Hiroki Kuroda, and Jon Garland are a few examples of players who probably could have gotten more money elsewhere.
  • Teams can change their minds.  The Phillies traded Lee to Seattle a year ago in part because they reportedly didn't think they could afford to extend him.  Something changed since then - perhaps Jayson Werth's agent?  We also should note that a player being unexpectedly traded doesn't mean he'll hold a grudge.
  • The Yankees can miss out on a targeted free agent.  If a free agent seeks top dollar and the Yankees want him, they'll probably win the bidding.  But a player can turn down the biggest offer and still be set for life, as Lee is. 
  • Every offseason has big surprises.  A couple of years ago I couldn't believe John Smoltz and Trevor Hoffman signed with new teams.  This year there were at least rumblings that the Red Sox could get Carl Crawford and the Nationals liked Jayson Werth.  But the Phillies were not seen as legitimate contenders for Lee, nor was their interest telegraphed prior to yesterday.  Mystery teams can be real and even succeed in signing a top free agent.  In reality, plenty of teams operate entirely under the radar without leaks to the media.
  • You can never have too much pitching.  Front-end starting pitching is exceedingly rare.  Unless C.C. Sabathia opts out, there will be no free agent aces available after the 2011 season.  The availability of an ace prompts teams to move parts around to make it work, and sometimes put more money toward the rotation even when the offense needs help.  The Royals should trade Zack Greinke for nothing less than a king's ransom.

Cliff Lee Rumors: Monday

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Yesterday we learned that the Nationals are out of the Cliff Lee sweepstakes and that the Yankees will not increase their offer again.  Multiple reporters have suggested Lee will decide this week.  If you believe in the mystery team, the lefty may have three legitimate suitors.  Otherwise, it's just the Yankees and Rangers.  The top bullets have the latest:

  • It's hard to find executives who expect Lee to re-sign in Texas, according to Joel Sherman of the New York Post (on Twitter).
  • One member of the Phillies organization has said to Jack Curry of the YES Network that Lee isn't in the same class as C.C. Sabathia and Roy Halladay and would be a riskier signing (Twitter link).
  • A decision is unlikely tonight, but could come tomorrow, according to Heyman (on Twitter).
  • The Yankees are now "extremely negative" about landing Lee and they believe he is leaning toward the Phillies' offer, according to Joel Sherman of the New York Post (on Twitter).
  • There is a belief Lee is heading to the Phillies, according to Jack Curry of the YES Network (on Twitter). Meanwhile, Jon Heyman of SI.com says the Phils "look like a very strong candidate to win Lee's services" (Twitter link).
  • Lee moved closer to a decision tonight, according to ESPN.com’s Jerry Crasnick. The Phillies entered the bidding for Lee after the winter meetings and have presented the lefty with “a spirited late bid,” Crasnick writes.
  • The Phillies, Yankees and Rangers are finalists for Lee, who appears to be close to deciding on a team, according to Jim Salisbury of CSNPhilly.com (on Twitter).
  • The Phillies are looking to unload Joe Blanton and the $17MM that remains on his contract through 2012, according to Jon Heyman of SI.com (Twitter link).
  • The Phillies are still bidding on Lee, according to Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports. GM Ruben Amaro Jr. declined to comment, but a source told Rosenthal that the team is "not out."
  • Lee has yet to make a decision, Yankees GM Brian Cashman told Tyler Kepner of the New York Times (on Twitter). "He'll make [a decision] someday," Cashman said.
  • There are still rumblings about a third team, according to Jon Heyman of SI.com (on Twitter). The mystery team's offer appears to be significantly lower than the Yankees' proposal, but it's from a place Lee "loves."
  • Joel Sherman of the New York Post writes, "You would be surprised at how many folks [in the game] think there is a legitimate third team bidding on Lee beyond the Yankees and Rangers."  Sherman speculates on who that team might be.  Less than a third of you believe such a club exists.
  • Lee's agent Darek Braunecker has been in touch with the Yankees today, tweets ESPN's Buster Olney, and he said the process is ongoing.
  • The unidentified third team is only willing to go four or five years, writes George A. King III of the New York Post.

Rosenthal On Werth, Bill Hall, Cliff Lee

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Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports leads his latest column by contrasting the value of Zack Greinke and Matt Garza.  Though Greinke is widely viewed as the superior pitcher, Garza comes with an extra year of control at similar overall money.  Either righty would require a huge trade bounty.  On to Rosenthal's other rumors…

  • Jayson Werth's contract includes decent-sized bonuses for strong finishes in the MVP voting.
  • The Dodgers are in discussions with Bill Hall to be their primary left fielder.  Rosenthal feels that such a signing would be the team's last significant move.  Hall's last strong season as a regular was 2006, the 35 home run campaign for the Brewers that earned him a $24MM contract.
  • Rosenthal tweets that the lack of state income tax in Texas has minimal impact in the Cliff Lee talks, since Lee would reside in Arkansas instead.  Rosenthal feels that the income tax-related savings the Rangers could promote would be balanced by a higher salary from the Yankees plus endorsements.  George A. King III of the New York Post offers a similar take.

Poll: Does A Cliff Lee Mystery Team Exist?

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Ah, the mystery team.  Enough of a hot stove tradition that it has its own category here at MLBTR.  One such phantom club still appears to be pursuing Cliff Lee, multiple sources told SI's Jon Heyman.  Heyman cautions that it's not the Phillies.  The Brewers, Cubs, and Orioles were ruled out during the winter meetings.  The Nationals and Angels appear unlikely, and with their GMs confirming interest they wouldn't qualify as mysteries anyway.

Before the Carl Crawford signing, the Red Sox made a low-salary seven year offer, reported Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports.  So they're a former mystery team, but not a current one.

ESPN's Buster Olney notes in a tweet today that the whole mystery team idea "can only come spoon-fed from an agent who is trying to create leverage."  That makes sense in regard to Lee, who still appears to only have two legitimate suitors and may be nearing a decision.  There are only so many teams that can even propose a $140MM+ deal to a 32-year-old pitcher.

Does a third serious suitor for Lee even exist?  Vote in today's poll.

Angels Are “Offensively Focused”

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After adding a pair of left-handers to their bullpen, the Angels are now "offensively focused" according to SI.com's Jon Heyman. He adds that they do not appear to be the mystery team in on Cliff Lee.

The Halos' offseason plan took a huge hit when Carl Crawford signed with the Red Sox, but they could always turn to Adrian Beltre. There has been talk about a reunion with Vladimir Guerrero as well, and there are a number of similar DH-centric types on the market, including Magglio Ordonez, Manny Ramirez, Jim Thome, and Jason Giambi. Those last four names are just my speculation, though.

Cliff Lee Rumors: Sunday

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If Nolan Ryan is right in believing that Cliff Lee will weigh his options this weekend and come to a decision Monday, we'll have to wait at least another day before hearing anything concrete on Lee. In the meantime, here are the rumblings on the left-hander since yesterday….

  • The Nationals are officially out on Lee, reports MLB.com's Bill Ladson.
  • Christian Red of The New York Daily News hears from a source that the Lee situation "should get resolved early this week."
  • SI's Jon Heyman tweets that there are "strong indications" of a third team being involved in the Lee discussions, but conventional wisdom still says it's between the Rangers and Yankees.
  • Yankees GM Brian Cashman tells Marc Carig of the Star-Ledger that "nothing has happened as of yet" regarding Lee's decision.
  • Sherman's colleague, George A. King III writes that the Yankees will not increase their offer to Lee again. The Yankees have extended three offers, the longest of which is believed to be in the seven-year, $160MM range.
  • Joel Sherman of the New York Post opines that Lee and agent Darek Braunecker have "used time expertly" to discomfort the Yankees and force them into upping their offer one last time prior to sealing the deal (Twitter link).
  • We heard on Saturday that some Yankees officials were expressing "a bit of skepticism" about the team's chances of landing Lee. ESPN.com's Buster Olney says the same thing today in his Insider-only blog. According to Olney, one Yankee exec told another team's GM that he figures the odds of New York signing Lee are about 50-50.
  • Brian Costa of the Wall Street Journal explains how Texas' tax rates mean the Rangers could effectively match the Yankees' offer without actually matching it. Ken Belson of the New York Times made a similar observation earlier this weekend.
  • Rangers manager Ron Washington thinks Lee will be back in Texas in 2011, as Tom Spousta of the Dallas Morning News writes.
  • Ken Davidoff of Newsday examines some of the oft-repeated theories about Lee's decision, attempting to determine which ones are legitimate.

Cliff Lee Rumors: Saturday

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There was not much movement on the Cliff Lee front yesterday, but the free agent lefty could agree to a contract at any moment. Here are today's batch of rumors, with the latest news featured at the top throughout the day…

  • Brian Cashman told Marc Carig of The Star Ledger that he hasn't been to Arkansas to visit Lee since the team's last visit, but he'll go again "if necessary." (Twitter link)
  • Nolan Ryan told MLB.com's T.R. Sullivan that he expects Lee to take the weekend to mull over the offers, then come to a decision on Monday. "I've run all my traps and don't know anything," said the Hall of Famer, "so we'll just wait and see."
  • Jack Curry of the YES Network hears from people that have spoken to Yankee officials that they have expressed "a bit of skepticism" about signing Lee (Twitter link).
  • SI.com's Jon Heyman reports that the Rangers originally offered five years and $100MM, but they added a sixth guaranteed year and what is believed to be "some form of option that could turn the new deal into a seven-year contract" when they last visited Lee in Arkansas.

Cliff Lee Rumors: Friday

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It's a good time to be Cliff Lee. The Yankees made the left-hander a number of proposals and, after meeting with him in Arkansas, the Rangers did the same. Don't count out the Angels or Nationals, who have also expressed interest this week, and don't forget about those mystery teams. Here are yesterday's Lee rumors and we'll keep track of the latest on the 2008 Cy Young Award winner right here:

  • Rangers CEO Chuck Greenberg, co-owner Ray Davis and assistant general manager Thad Levine visited Lee's home in Little Rock on Thursday, and Levine talks to ESPNDallas.com's Richard Durrett about the trip.
  • Tyler Kepner of the New York Times gets the sense from people involved that Lee feels a pull toward Texas (Twitter link). However, Kepner expects Lee to take the Yankees' seven-year, $161MM offer.
  • Sabathia may be recruiting Lee for the Yankees, but Rangers starter Tommy Hunter tells Jon Machota of the Dallas Morning News that he's trying to keep Lee in Texas.
  • The Yankees and Rangers don't expect a decision from Lee for a few days, according to Bob Nightengale of USA Today (Twitter link).
  • Nothing appears to have changed overnight, reports ESPN.com's Buster Olney (on Twitter).
  • C.C. Sabathia continues to encourage his former Indians teammate to join him in New York, according to Mitch Lawrence of the New York Daily News.
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