Cubs/Red Sox/Mariners Trade Possible
A reliable source told me today about a three-way deal that is "imminent." It’s always risky to throw around "imminent," but I’m just quoting him here.
Here’s the scenario:
BOS gives: Bronson Arroyo, Tony Graffanino, PTBNL
BOS gets: Jeremy Reed, Will Ohman
CHC gives: Corey Patterson, Ohman
CHC gets: Raul Ibanez, Graffanino, cash
SEA gives: Reed, Ibanez, cash
SEA gets: Arroyo, Patterson, PTBNL
Let’s evaluate. There’s no doubt the Cubs would be making out like bandits in this trade. Corey Patterson is useless to them, even as a fourth outfielder. 28 year-old lefty Ohman tossed a solid 43 innings this year, and seems recovered from his January 2002 Tommy John surgery.
But Chicago’s bounty seems to outweigh the former phenom and useful southpaw. Ibanez is on the hook for just $4.25MM in 2006, and the 33 year-old is probably good for a .290/.350/.460 line in 2006. He played 55 games in left field for the Mariners in 2005. I’ve projected him at .288 with 21 HR, 84 RBI, 89 runs, and 8 steals for 2006. Graffanino could probably chip in with some decent on-base skills from 2B or a utility role.
My Arroyo projection has him leading the Red Sox in wins with 16. Arroyo does a good job limiting his baserunners and should have an ERA under 4. I don’t think Safeco would have a major effect on his numbers. Reed should continue to improve all facets of his game in ’06, and would be a nice pickup for the Red Sox.
There may be a holdup in the deal because the Red Sox want to trade before Graffanino and Arroyo hit arbitration, and the Cubs want to wait. The word is that Mariners GM Bill Bavasi is strangely infatuated with Corey Patterson. If that’s the case, Hendry should strike while the iron is hot. I don’t have any information on where Matt Murton would find himself if the proposed trade takes place, but he wouldn’t have a starting gig for the Cubs.
Cubs Tejada Trade On The Table
An emailer reports that the Cubs are awaiting word from the Orioles on this offer:
Cubs get:
Miguel Tejada, Erik Bedard
Orioles get:
Mark Prior, Rich Hill, Corey Patterson
This proposal is on the table. The report comes from Bruce Levine on ESPN Radio 1000.
The pros and cons of this deal have been debated endlessly on this site. To restate my opinion: this move works as a "win now" move. The Cubs would add something like seven wins, so they’d need some additional upgrades or players outplaying projections to be favored as the division winner. A couple of options I like:
Platoon Jacque Jones with Matt Murton and acquire a slugging left fielder. Cliff Floyd would only become available if the Mets acquire Manny Ramirez. While the Cubs aren’t thrilled with Luis Gonzalez, he’s still a top ten LF and could push them over the top.
Trade for Jeff Kent. He’s one of the five best second basemen, and I’m firmly in the camp that Ronny Cedeno will not be a Major League success. Kent’s obviously a force in the Dodgers’ lineup, but the Cubs could come on strong and top the Mets’ weak offer. The Dodgers may want to get some young players in return before Kent’s contract is up. Just a thought.
Update: Prior-Tejada Trade
A couple of emailers have informed me of a radio report by Bruce Levine on ESPN Radio 1000. Levine was the first to report the Juan Pierre trade earlier this month.
According to the emailers, the Cubs are waiting to hear back from the Orioles (Angelos will be involved) on this offer:
Cubs receive Miguel Tejada and Erik Bedard for Mark Prior, Rich Hill, and Corey Patterson.
Essentially, Patterson is a non-factor in discussing 2006 value. Hill would also not be likely to add much value to a Major League rotation next year. As I mentioned yesterday, this trade nets the Cubs seven wins if everyone plays at their 2005 level.
While beloved by Cubs fans, Prior’s history of elbow problems coupled with two freak injuries have limited his playing time for the team. He’s averaged 166 innings over the last three seasons. Interesting quote in Buster Olney’s blog for ESPN this morning:
"Executives with other teams are assuming, by the way, that Baltimore owner Peter Angelos would likely kill any proposal once club doctors review Prior’s recent medical history."
Bedard is certainly not a pitcher of Prior’s caliber, whether evaluated based on performance or durability. He’s averaged 140 innings over the last two seasons.
Any discussion surrounding Bedard’s potential inevitably references his first half of 2005. He posted a 2.08 ERA in 60 innings before the break. Most encouraging about the successful run was Bedard’s walk rate, which was around 2.1 per nine. He’s walked 4.1 per nine on average in the Major Leagues, and 3.3 per nine in the minors. According to Baseball Prospectus, lefty Bob Ojeda circa 1984 is the closest match to Bedard (although Bedard has better strikeout numbers). Ojeda had a nice decade in the 80s, and reached his peak with 18 wins and a 2.57 ERA for the World Champion 1986 Mets.
Baltimore Sun journalist Jeff Zrebiec’s opinion on all of this?
"The Orioles clearly want to keep the shortstop but seem to be at least willing to deal him if the price is right. However as of now, it appears that Tejada will remain an Oriole at least through Christmas."
Buzz Around The Game
Let’s see what we’ve got going on today in a potpourri-style format.
As predicted, Eric Byrnes was non-tendered last night. I can’t possibly think of a better way for the Cubs to turn the Jacque Jones signing into a positive. If you sum up Byrnes and Jones’ salaries, you’ll be getting solid stats from RF for the price. Assuming Dusty Baker understands what a platoon is and how all that works.
Of course, it’s probably one more roster spot than the Cubs wanted to use on this type of thing since they already have John Mabry. But Mabry can back up Aramis Ramirez, and the Cubs can carry one less pitcher and make it work. I put a word in to a Cubs source of mine, and he agreed that the idea makes sense (who wouldn’t agree) and mentioned that the Cubs have liked Byrnes in the past.
UPDATE: Just talked to a second Cubs source, and he echoed the sentiment held by many readers of the site: Hendry didn’t give Jones $16MM to platoon him. He’s a full-timer for the most part.
Kirby Arnold reports that the Mariners offered Gil Meche to the Cubs for Corey Patterson. At first, I said, "Sure, why not." But then I looked at Meche’s numbers, and I realized there’s no way he can help the ballclub. When a pitcher loses his ability to strike batters out, as Meche may have, he has to counter the increased hits he’s surrendering with good control. Or the ability to keep the ball in the park. Meche appears to have none of these traits, and would be a frustrating spot starter who would allow tons of baserunners. I might rather have Josh Fogg at this point. There’s got to be something slightly better out there for the Cubs.
Alfonso Soriano won’t move off second base for the Nationals and is pretty much raising a stink about being dealt to Washington. Let’s see here, are there any teams with GMs dumber than Jim Bowden who might make a trade for Sori? Dan O’Brien’s club doesn’t have a need for a 2B; Placido Polanco is firmly entrenched in Detroit…maybe Littlefield is interested?
Is Millwood really getting a five year deal from someone? Insane. Incredible timing to have your 2.86 ERA season. Best timing award for the NL: Todd Jones.
My Mets guy is saying the club is still talking to the Dodgers about Jeff Kent, but right now it’s a "pipe dream." Doesn’t seem like the two teams will agree on anything. The Mets still have some faith in Victor Zambrano (or maybe they’re just trying to save face), but Omar feels that after adding Julian Tavarez his bullpen will be pretty much set.
The Mariners seem desperate to get rid of Jeremy Reed after pushing hard to obtain him for Freddy Garcia. I guess they don’t understand that center fielders are hard to find and Reed will get better. After the masterstroke that was the Johjima signing, Bill Bavasi has taken a step backward with Jarrod Washburn.
Diamondbacks After Corey Patterson
Several different sources have recently mentioned the Dimaondbacks’ interest in Corey Patterson. The rumor first surfaced in my inbox Thursday morning, and I put in a word to Jack Magruder of the East Valley Tribune. Magruder confirmed the rumor, saying that it might happen depending on who the Cubs would take.
After further inquiries, Magruder revealed that the D’backs were reluctant to part with relievers after the Johnny Estrada trade thinned their ‘pen. He also mentioned that Arizona will not part with Carlos Quentin, Conor Jackson, Stephen Drew, or other top prospects, which makes sense.
Some have floated the idea of the Cubs attempting to acquire Des Plaines native Shawn Green for their right field vacancy. Green, the game’s 7th best right fielder in 2005, won’t be coming to the Cubs. Green’s contract calls for a limited no-trade clause for 2006 and 2007 that allows trades only to the Angels, Dodgers, and Padres. Apparently his wife prefers to stay in California.
Today, Bleed Cubbie Blue pointed us in the direction of an article on this same topic. John Gambadoro, in an article special to AZCentral.com, adds some new information about the D’Backs interest in Patterson. According to Gambadoro:
"Last season after the trade deadline had passed, Arizona put a claim in on Patterson after the Cubs had tried to slip him through waivers. The Cubs pulled the offer back."
I’ve dropped a line to "Gambo" in attempt to get a few names that Arizona would be willing to offer. This is pure speculation, but maybe the D’Backs would part with a struggling outfielder of their own, Josh Kroeger. A former wide receiver, Kroeger took a step backward by posting a .261/.316/.422 line in Triple A this year. He’s only 22, and had been successful up to this point. I figure it wouldn’t be bad to add a slugging outfield prospect to the stable if he’s available.
Kevin Mench To The Cubs
The Cubs are hot on the trail of Kevin Mench to fill one of their vacant outfield spots. Given that the Rangers have a need for a center fielder, it’s been speculated that Corey Patterson would be sent to Texas.
At age 27, Mench may have already reached his ceiling offensively. His AVG, OBP, and SLG all took a dip in 2005, his first full season. Mench didn’t rely on Ameriquest for his 25 home runs, as his splits are pretty even. He still has three years until free agency. Mench might be better served as a lefty-masher in a platoon – he slugged .600 vs. lefties in ’05.
Corey Patterson is long on potential, but has absolutely no ability to control the strike zone. The Rangers are hoping 2005 was rock bottom for Patterson.
Given the Cubs’ need for bullpen help, Jim Hendry may try to get Joaquin Benoit in the deal. Despite throwing a solid 87 innings in 2005, the 28 year-old righthander probably won’t be considered for the Rangers’ starting rotation in 2006. Benoit has an electric fastball and great K rate, but his problems with walks and home runs may run him out of town. He’s a great sleeper if he ever snags a starting gig.