Twins Rumors: Mahle, Castillo, Marlins, Coulombe, Winder, Catcher
The Twins currently hold a 2.5-game lead in the American League Central, but another poor performance from a pitching staff that has squandered far too many leads this season cost them a win over the Brewers last night. Upgrading the pitching staff will be a priority for the Twins before next Tuesday’s deadline, and to that end, they’ve been in the market on both Reds ace Luis Castillo and Athletics top starter Frankie Montas, per ESPN’s Jeff Passan.
The Athletic’s Dan Hayes, however, writes that the Twins are more interested in Castillo’s teammate Tyler Mahle than in Castillo himself. Hayes adds that the Twins have been in talks with the Marlins about pitching help. Minnesota and Miami, it should be noted, have had talks regarding potential swaps sending pitching to Minnesota frequently in offseasons past. The Marlins are reportedly open to offers on Pablo Lopez, and reliever Anthony Bass, Dylan Floro and Steven Okert are a few speculative trade candidates in the Marlins’ bullpen. Generally speaking, the Marlins are deep in pitching options that’ll appeal not only to the Twins but other clubs seeking upgrades.
Whether the preference for Mahle over Castillo — which Hayes also indicated back in the offseason — is a reflection of asking price or of the Twins’ belief that he has the superior raw stuff isn’t clear. But Mahle has flown somewhat under the radar for the past few seasons despite being quite similar, statistically, to both Castillo and Montas since 2020.
It’s hard not to wonder just what Mahle’s performance might look like in another uniform, as his numbers away from the homer-happy Great American Ball Park are tantalizing. Few pitchers have such a dramatic home/road split as Mahle, who since 2020 has pitched to a 2.93 ERA on the road but an ugly 4.89 mark at home. Mahle has allowed 1.75 homers per nine innings pitched in Cincinnati, compared to just 0.52 long balls per nine on the road. He also has a better strikeout rate and opponents’ hard-hit rate than either Castillo or Montas, dating back to 2020 — albeit with the highest walk rate of the three.
Broadly speaking, Mahle is much closer to the Montas/Castillo tier of pitcher than most pundits credit him. And, with a $5.2MM salary compared to Castillo’s $7.35MM mark, he’s a bit more affordable than his teammate and right in line with Montas ($5MM). Like that duo, he’s controlled through the 2023 season.
Mahle got out to an awful start in 2022, pitching to a 6.32 ERA through his first ten appearances. However, most of the damage against him came in two brutal outings — eight runs versus the Cubs on May 24 and seven runs against the Dodgers on April 17 — and he’s been excellent over the past two months. Dating back to May 29, Mahle has a 2.81 ERA, 27.5% strikeout rate and 7.7% walk rate in 51 1/3 innings. Overall, he’s sitting on a 4.48 ERA this season, but marks like xERA (3.30) and FIP (3.78) feel he’s been quite a bit better than that. A minor shoulder strain sent him to the IL earlier this month, but Mahle returned Sunday to fire six quality innings.
Regardless of the specific names they acquire, the Twins seem nearly certain to augment both their rotation and their bullpen in the next six days. Jhoan Duran and Griffin Jax have been their only two consistently reliable arms, and their ‘pen depth took a further hit yesterday when left-hander Danny Coulombe was transferred to the 60-day injured list. The Twins announced today that Coulombe required season-ending surgery to repair the labrum in his left hip, subtracting a quietly useful lefty from the mix.
The 32-year-old Coulombe is a journeyman southpaw who found a home in the Twins organization back in 2020. He only made two appearances with the Twins that season but returned on a minor league deal in 2021 and has been solid overall in the Twins’ relief corps. Dating back to 2020, Coulombe has pitched 49 1/3 innings with aa 2.92 ERA, 22% strikeout rate and 9.3% walk rate. He’ll get big league service time while finishing out the year on the 60-day IL, but he’ll be a clear non-tender candidate following that surgery.
Meanwhile, Phil Miller of the Minneapolis Star Tribune tweets that promising young righty Josh Winder, one of the Twins’ brightest arms and currently the game’s No. 68 prospect at Baseball America, is being shut due to recurring shoulder discomfort. The Twins are still trying to determine the cause of the issue, but the loss of Winder, who’s already given them 45 1/3 Major League innings (3.77 ERA) is a huge hit to the Twins’ rotation and bullpen depth.
For all the focus on the Twins’ pitching staff, it’s not their only area of need. Catcher Ryan Jeffers‘ fractured thumb will sideline him for up to eight weeks, which has pushed Gary Sanchez into a starting catcher role with Minnesota. He’d previously been used more evenly between designated hitter and catcher, but Sanchez will now get the lion’s share of playing time behind the plate now. Caleb Hamilton, a 2016 23-round pick who’d never hit much above A-ball prior to this season, is currently serving as his backup.
It’s not terribly surprising, then, that Darren Wolfson of 1500 SKOR North mentions in his latest podcast that the Twins will explore the market for a more veteran backup to Sanchez. Twins fans probably shouldn’t expect to see Willson Contreras riding into town anytime soon, but players like Tucker Barnhart or Pedro Severino jump out as possibly available veteran backups.
Wolfson adds, via Twitter, that outfield prospect Matt Wallner and infield prospect Spencer Steer have been mentioned in trade scenarios the team has had recently — and understandably so. Wallner, the No. 39 overall pick in 2019, recently jumped to Triple-A after posting a .299/.436/.597 batting line (157 wRC+) and 21 homers in 342 plate appearances with the Twins’ Double-A club. Steer, selected just 51 picks after Wallner, is hitting a combined .274/.359/.549 in 78 games between Double-A and Triple-A. He recently just landed in the No. 99 spot on Baseball America’s latest Top 100 prospect ranking. Certainly, neither Wallner nor Steer would be included in a small trade for a backup catcher, but it’s easy to see both being the type of players coveted by teams peddling controllable help in the rotation and bullpen.
Twins Reinstate Miguel Sano
The Twins announced Tuesday that they’ve reinstated first baseman Miguel Sano from the 60-day injured list. Left-hander Danny Coulombe was moved from the 10-day IL to the 60-day IL in order to open a spot on the 40-man roster, while outfielder Gilberto Celestino was optioned to Triple-A St. Paul to open a spot on the active roster.
Sano, 29, got out to the worst start of his career with the Twins earlier this year when he began the season with a calamitous .093/.231/.148 batting line through 17 games and 65 plate appearances. That dismal start came in spite of a modest improvement in his still sky-high strikeout rate (32.3%, down from 34.4% in 2021) and a huge 52.9% hard-hit rate. Sano hit just one home run and did not have a multi-hit game on the season prior to injuring his knee during a walk-off celebration. He eventually underwent surgery to repair a torn meniscus and missed all of May and June in addition to most of July.
Because he’s in the final season of a three-year, $30MM contract and because the Twins have received strong production from prospects Alex Kirilloff and Jose Miranda in his absence, it looked for some time like Sano might not have a roster spot waiting for him when he returned. However, Sano decimated minor league opponents during his rehab assignment, hitting .333/.422/.795 with five home runs and three doubles through just 45 plate appearances. He drew six walks, punched out a dozen times and even swiped a base along the way.
That showing was enough to get Sano another opportunity despite the slow start, and it can’t hurt his cause that the now-optioned Celestino has faded after a blistering start to the season. The 23-year-old Celestino has been operating primarily as a fourth outfielder anyhow, and his last multi-hit effort came back on June 14. In 57 plate appearances since that time, he’s hitting just .148/.193/.222. Celestino still provides speed off the bench and elite defense across the outfield, so he can still provide value even if he’s not hitting. For now, however, it’ll be utilityman Nick Gordon serving as the primary backup to Byron Buxton in center field.
Sano is back in the Twins’ lineup today, but the former cleanup hitter has been dropped all the way to ninth. With Miranda hitting .313/.358/.531 in 137 plate appearances since his last recall from the minors and Kirilloff slashing .301/.339/.456 in 112 plate appearances since his own latest recall, Sano’s grasp on the Twins’ first base gig appears tenuous at present.
Both Kirilloff and Miranda are capable options at first base, and with Buxton, Max Kepler and Kyle Garlick in the outfield, plus Gio Urshela as an option at third base, both Kirilloff and Miranda could be used as regular options in a rotation between their respective positions and the DH spot. Sano’s case is aided by the fact that catcher Ryan Jeffers is out six to eight weeks after fracturing his thumb, pushing Gary Sanchez from frequent DH to starting catcher, but the fact remains that the Twins have options in the event that Sano’s struggles continue. With the guaranteed portion of his contract drawing to a close, it becomes more feasible that they could simply move on if he can’t right the ship.
All that said, the Twins would be hard-pressed to find a bigger lineup upgrade than what a healthy and effective Sano can bring to the table. Sano’s .223/.316/.466 batting line from the 2021 season isn’t exactly dominant, but that includes a similarly disastrous start to the one through which he labored earlier this year. From June 4 onward — coincidentally or not, right around the time MLB sent its infamous memo regarding pitcher usage of Spider Tack and other foreign substances — Sano batted .251/.330/.503 with 21 homers and 21 doubles in a span of 373 plate appearances.
The Twins hold a $14MM club option on Sano for the 2023 season — which comes with a $2.75MM buyout. It’s hard to see that option being picked up as things presently stand, but a huge few months from the slugger could change the equation.
Coulombe’s move to the 60-day injured list is largely a formality. He first hit the injured list with a hip impingement on May 11, returned for a day in late May, and went back on the 15-day IL with a recurrence of that same hip issue the very next day. He’s already been on the 15-day IL for for 60 days anyhow, so this switch doesn’t at all impact his ability to return if he gets back to a point where he’s medically cleared to do so. Coulombe, however, has yet to even begin a minor league rehab assignment. In 49 1/3 innings with the Twins dating back to 2020, Coulombe has a 2.92 ERA and a 45-to-19 K/BB ratio.
Twins Place Danny Coulombe On 15-Day IL, Select Juan Minaya
The Twins placed left-hander Danny Coulombe on the 15-day injured list, while also optioning right-hander Yennier Cano to Triple-A. In corresponding moves, the Twins called up left-hander Jovani Moran and selected the contract of veteran righty Juan Minaya. (Minnesota had room on its 40-man roster, so no further moves were required to create space for Minaya.)
Coulombe heads back to the IL with the same left hip impingement that sidelined him back on May 11. The Twins only just activated Couloumbe from that previous IL stint yesterday, but he re-aggravated the injury in an appearance against the Royals. Playing on three separate minor leagues contracts with Minnesota over the last three seasons, Couloumbe has a 2.92 ERA over 49 1/3 big league innings with the Twins over the last three years.
Moran slides into Coulombe’s spot as a southpaw available out of the bullpen. The 25-year-old tossed 2 2/3 innings of scoreless ball for the Twins earlier this season, but he has been an active piece of the Triple-A roster, covering 12 1/3 innings in 10 appearances with a 4.38 ERA and a 19-to-9 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Moran’s importance in the short-term can’t be understated, as he joins Caleb Thielbar as the only two lefties in the bullpen.
The 31-year-old Minaya spent four seasons with the White Sox, making 125 appearances out of the bullpen between 2016 and 2019. In that time, he pitched to a 3.93 ERA/4.18 FIP over 128 1/3 total innings. He did not pitch in 2020, but came back with the Twins last season to post a 2.48 ERA/3.97 FIP in 40 innings spanning 29 appearances. Minnesota non-tendered Minaya last fall but re-signed the right-hander to a minor league deal after the lockout.