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Cafardo’s Latest: Red Sox, Brewers, Mariners, Oswalt

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In today's notes column, Nick Cafardo of The Boston Globe wonders if the Red Sox would move closer Jonathan Papelbon after the season to open up the closer's role for Daniel Bard. He speculates that the Brewers, Twins, Rays, Braves, and Phillies could be in the market for a closer this winter. Papelbon is scheduled to become a free agent after the 2011 season. 

Let's round up the rest of Cafardo's rumors…

  • Scott Boras said he undervalued Stephen Strasburg last year, even though he eventually signed the largest contract in draft history. Boras added that being around San Diego State coach Tony Gwynn helped Strasburg become prepared for what lied ahead.
  • Cafardo says that New England isn't a high priority area for scouts before the draft because by time they can get out to see the players in the region, it's too late in the game for a cross-checker to confirm anything.
  • Cafardo predicts that Jacoby Ellsbury will be traded this offseason. He'll arbitration eligible for the first time after 2010, though he's been battling rib issues basically all season.
  • He also remarks that the Red Sox would have to play Mike Lowell if they want to showcase him for a trade. Lowell has received just 50 plate appearances since the end of April.
  • Kevin Millwood should become major trade bait as the deadline approaches because he's pitched well and is in the final year of his contract.
  • The Brewers would love to make Randy Wolf available, but no one would take him on with more than two years and $24MM left on his deal. Meanwhile, Milwaukee still isn't sure if they'll try to improve their catching situation or become sellers and look towards next season.
  • The feeling is that once Seattle trades Cliff Lee, pretty much everyone on their roster not named Ichiro and Felix Hernandez will be available as well. 
  • Diamondbacks' CEO Derrick Hall isn't happy with his team's performance and has talked about re-evaluating his management staff. They could be major players at the deadline, with Justin Upton representing the only untouchable.
  • Cafardo says that the feeling among big league executives is that the Dodgers will not give up the prospects necessary to acquire Roy Oswalt, but they would be okay taking on the money.
  • Adam Dunn would be a perfect fit for the Red Sox if they let David Ortiz go after the season, assuming the Nationals don't re-sign him.  

Cafardo On Ortiz, Iannetta, Atkins, Lowell

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The key to the Rays' success so far has been their pitching staff, according to Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe, who praises Tampa Bay for playing so well despite a few slumping bats. Cafardo says that it may be hard for the club to add another piece or two before the trade deadline, since their budget is already maxed out. However, Cafardo acknowledges that with Carl Crawford and Carlos Pena facing free agency, the Rays may go all-out this year and stretch their budget a little in hopes of winning a championship. Here are some of Cafardo's other notes:

  • After this season, David Ortiz is probably "done in Boston unless he takes a massive pay cut." Ortiz might have trouble catching on anywhere next year, since there's virtually no market for one-dimensional players, and he may not be willing to accept a role similar to Jason Giambi's in Colorado.
  • If Ortiz and Victor Martinez continue to hit, the Red Sox are very unlikely to pursue Chris Iannetta.
  • One of the winter's most disappointing new additions has been Garrett Atkins, who is homerless and sports a .221/.261/.283 slash line in 119 plate appearances. The Orioles will have to consider releasing him if he doesn't turn things around.
  • The Rangers are looking for a starting pitcher and a productive right-handed bat. A Rangers official tells Cafardo that he'd still love to see Mike Lowell in Texas.
  • Cafardo thinks that if the Red Sox fall out of playoff contention and become sellers, they could replenish their farm system, acquiring multiple players for Martinez, Lowell, Ortiz, Adrian Beltre, Marco Scutaro, and Jeremy Hermida. I'm less optimistic than Cafardo about the caliber of talent the Sox could land for most of those guys.

Ortiz Expects Pedro To Pitch This Season

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David Ortiz expects his friend Pedro Martinez to pitch this season, reports Mark Hale of the New York Post.  Ortiz spoke to Pedro about a month ago; at that time the pitcher was working out but not really talking to teams.

Back on April 6th, Martinez said he wouldn't need long to get ready and had a preference for an NL East Coast contender.  Pedro is known to have been in contact with the Phillies, while the Mets appear uninterested in a second stint.  Given Martinez's criteria, he might need to get the Nationals involved to spark a competition for his services.

Ortiz Wants To Play “Two Or Three More Years”

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There has been a lot of attention paid to Red Sox slugger David Ortiz lately, mostly because he's off to a slow start for the second straight year. However, Ortiz is focused on future, telling WEEI.com's Rob Bradford that he wants to play "Two or three more years and then I’ll take it to the house.”

Ortiz mentioned that he lost 20 pounds over the winter by changing his diet, though he's still hitting just .160/.236/.320 through his first 55 plate appearances. He started last season slow as well, but rebounded in the second half to finish the year with a respectable .238/.332/.462 batting line with 28 homers.

Big Papi is in the final guaranteed year of his contract, during which he'll earn $12.5MM. The team holds an option for next season at the same salary with no buyout, and it's hard to see them exercising that even if his performance recovers similar to last year.

Gammons On Snyder, Ramos, Martinez, Ortiz

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Peter Gammons made his weekly appearance on WEEI’s Big Show today, and as always, dished about some possible Red Sox moves.  Ethan Landy has the full transcript available, but here are some of the more interesting tidbits…

  • In regards to the Chris Snyder trade rumors, Gammons said the Sox would be hesitant about paying the catcher the rest of the $4.75MM he’s owed for this season and the $5.75MM owed for 2011.  Gammons said the Red Sox would prefer to spend that money on “a big piece” at the trade deadline.
  • Gammons tabs Minnesota prospect Wilson Ramos as “probably the best [catcher] in the minor leagues that might be traded,” though he thinks a deal is a longshot since the Twins would ask for Daniel Bard or Clay Buchholz in return. A few weeks ago, MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes looked at what the Twins might do with Ramos.
  • Should Boston pick up another catcher, of course, that would leave Victor Martinez out of a position what with Kevin Youkilis at first and Adrian Beltre at third.  Gammons points out that the Sox would face a tough decision about what to do with “three DH’s on the roster,” counting Martinez along with David Ortiz and Mike Lowell. 
  • Gammons reiterated a past point about how catching prospect Mark Wagner may have more value to Boston than Ortiz at this stage, given Wagner’s defensive skills and Ortiz’s struggles at the plate.  Though, as Gammons notes, “they set this team up to get offense out of catcher and DH, so that is a tough change in direction without a real answer.”

Rosenthal’s Full Count Video: Lowell, D’Backs

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FoxSports.com's Ken Rosenthal has a new Full Count video up, so let's dive in…

  • If the Red Sox decide to give Mike Lowell more at-bats at the expense of David Ortiz, don't be surprised if it happens soon. Just six of their next 26 games are on the road, and Lowell is a .303/.361/.513 career hitter at Fenway. Yesterday we heard that the Sox would probably release Ortiz before keeping him on the bench.
  • Should the Orioles decide to part ways with manager Dave Trembley, Rosenthal calls Greg Maddux an outside the box replacement candidate. Andy MacPhail has long admired Maddux's baseball smarts, and thinks he could succeed in any role. Keep in mind that the 355 game winner is currently working for Cubs GM Jim Hendry, and his only tie to the O's is MacPhail, his former GM with Chicago.
  • The Diamondbacks' rotation depth remains an issue, but they have minimal interest in Jarrod Washburn. They only have so much money to spend, and Washburn is coming off knee surgery and hasn't been through Spring Training. Arizona believes they're better off waiting until other teams fall out of the race and the trade market begins to develop.
  • The concern in Atlanta is about Bobby Cox's bullpen management. The 38-year-old Billy Wagner and 40-year-old Takashi Saito have been worked hard in the early going.

Gammons On The Red Sox

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Peter Gammons appeared today on WEEI's Big Show, and addressed a few Red Sox-centric topics. Ethan Landy of WEEI has the transcript, which includes these highlights:

  • Victor Martinez continues to struggle throwing out opposing base-stealers, leading Gammons to speculate that the Red Sox may eventually have to call up Mark Wagner or look outside the organization for a defensive catcher. Otherwise, teams will run wild on Boston all season.
  • The Sox may also need to look into acquiring middle relief help at some point this year. Gammons says that the club doesn't have any obvious minor league arms that they could bring up to pitch in important situations, like they did with Daniel Bard last season.
  • If David Ortiz continues to struggle, Gammons thinks the Sox will have to seriously consider releasing him: "I don’t think they are going to keep him here and sit him on the bench."

Marlins To Keep An Eye On Lowell

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The idea of a reunion between the Marlins and Mike Lowell has been in the air since the Miami Herald reported the team sent scouts to watch the 36-year-old's Grapefruit League debut on March 15. This morning, Jorge Ebro at the Nuevo Herald (link in Spanish) provided a more specific picture of the team's interest level and what situations could bring Lowell back to Florida after talking with a source inside the organization.

"We've talked about that subject, and everyone within the organization is aware of the significance of bringing back Lowell from all points of view," explains Ebro's source. He adds that much remains "unclear" about Lowell for the team's scouts, particularly the status of his hip and "the lateral movement that made him one of the best defenders of his time." Reports on Lowell's mobility haven't been glowing, and he started the spring at first base for the first time since he was in the Yankees minor league system. But even with the potential of changing positions on occasion, Lowell's role would likely be much clearer outside of Boston, where he is currently either the first option off of the Red Sox's bench, especially in the case of another slow start by David Ortiz, or a $12MM odd man out in the race for starts at the infield corners and DH.

If Lowell were to join the Marlins, the source says, he would fill the same corner-to-corner role currently held by Jorge Cantu: a potential starter at third base who occasionally spells the starting first baseman. That starter increasingly looks like Gaby Sanchez, who has hit .387 this spring and looked "more relaxed" at the plate and in the field, according the source. "But having a veteran like Lowell in the bank never hurts," he adds. "It's a long season, injuries happen. If the price is good, a return by Lowell would not be unreasonable." As Ebro notes, the Marlins' idea of a good price—or that of the Twins, or White Sox, or whatever team looks seriously at Lowell—would likely include the Red Sox picking up most of the cost.

Odds & Ends: Helton, Gaudin, Hensley, Papelbon

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Links for Monday…

  • Troy Renck of The Denver Post has the details of Todd Helton's new contract extension. He can void the deal if two of three general partners sell their controlling interest in the team, and it contains $13.1MM in deferred money at three percent interest.
  • The Yankees could look to move Chad Gaudin soon, according to Rosenthal (via Twitter). In another tweet, he mentions that Clay Hensley can opt out of his contract with the Marlins if he's not on the roster by April 1st.
  • Jim Bowden shows off his post-trade fist pump in his latest GM's Corner video for FOX Sports.  Bowden asked a slew of GMs about their processes for making deals; Frank Wren estimated that less than ten percent of discussions lead to trades.
  • In considering Jonathan Papelbon's future, WEEI's Alex Speier demonstrates just how risky large multiyear deals for relievers have been.
  • FoxSports.com's Ken Rosenthal says the Blue Jays "will not settle for fringe prospects in return" for relievers Scott Downs and Jason Frasor, and they could use them to continue the rebuilding effort.
  • Rosenthal adds that Gary Sheffield is talking to a NL club, though it's not clear which one. 
  • Meanwhile, Jon Paul Morosi of FoxSports.com notes that both Jamey Wright and Austin Kearns have out clauses in their contracts, but a club official said the provisions will not impact the makeup of the team. A source added that there are "no trades on the horizon" for Cleveland.

Latin Links: Ortiz, Tejada, Mora, Guzman

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Spring draws in baseball writers from around the globe to Arizona and Florida, including plenty of beat writers from players' home countries who are eager for a full-page interview. Links are, you guessed it, in Spanish.

  • David Ortiz comes close to acknowledging that his career may end outside of Boston in an interview with Dionisio Soldevila at the Dominican daily Hoy. He disputes recent reports that he is unhappy the team hasn't preemptively picked up his option for 2011, as they did for Pedro Martinez in 2003, and predicts that the outcome will depend on his performance this season. "Boston will know when they want to approach me to talk about the contract, if they want it," Ortiz says. "I only think about playing baseball, and if I have a good season, they'll make me an offer, but if it's not them it will be another (team)." Terry Francona recently told ESPN Boston's Gordon Edes that other teams' personnel have commented to him that Ortiz looks great this spring.
  • Get used to the idea of Miguel Tejada at third. Tejada tells Soldevila that he, rather than the Orioles, made the choice, and he predicts the change will extend beyond his single-season contract. "I think it was time for me to move," Tejada explains. "I decided to change because I'm not the same age and I don't want it said that I don't have the same range." Tejada has been working with both Cal Ripken and Brooks Robinson during spring training to learn the fine art of the five-hole.
  • At the other end of the position-hopping spectrum, Melvin Mora tells Carlos Valmore Rodriguez at Lider en Deportes that he relishes Rockies manager Jim Tracy's plan to use him all over the infield and outfield, as it gives the 38-year-old "nostalgia for the excitement I used to feel when I arrived in the majors and did everything." Mora says he was in discussion with the Red Sox, Mets, Rangers, Mariners and Blue Jays during the winter but chose the Rockies because he saw there his best opportunity to return to the playoffs.
  • Angel Guzman tells Manuel Lira at Lider that his upcoming shoulder surgery won't spell the end of his career, but not having it would have. "Dr. Andrews told me, this is the same problem we had last year," Guzman says. "I had to stop in September after having rehabilitated for four-and-a-half months, so it made no sense to return to rehabilitation, and the only way to return to baseball is by doing the surgery."
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