Dominic Smith

Mets Exploring Trade Market For DH Options

By Steve Adams | July 22, 2022 at 9:39am CDT

The Mets are exploring the market for a number of bats as they look to upgrade over what has been a generally unproductive tandem of Dominic Smith and J.D. Davis at designated hitter, reports Andy Martino of SNY. Nationals sluggers Josh Bell and Nelson Cruz, Colorado’s C.J. Cron and Baltimore’s Trey Mancini (as previously reported) are among the names in play.

Metsmerized’s Michael Mayer reported this week that the Mets have also had talks with the Pirates about left-handed-hitting Daniel Vogelbach, who is signed to a highly affordable $1MM contract with a $1.5MM option for the 2023 season. FanSided’s Robert Murray hears the same, though Murray notes that there are multiple teams inquiring about Vogelbach’s availability (as is surely the case with the Mets’ other reported targets). Martino describes conversations with the Pirates regarding Vogelbach as “active.”

The 29-year-old Vogelbach would surely be viewed as a platoon option in Queens, as he’s never hit lefties well and has again posted an inept .141/.267/.156 batting line against them. However, he’s crushed righties to the tune of a .260/.365/.532 batting line, swatting a dozen homers, nine doubles and a triple in just 203 trips to the plate when holding the platoon advantage this year. Vogelbach’s has long been a productive hitter against righties, and he’s not all that far removed from a smashing a career-high 30 homers with the 2019 Mariners.

There’s some appeal to Vogelbach beyond the strong platoon work and next year’s affordable club option, too. He entered the year with three-plus years of Major League service time, meaning that even after a club exercises next year’s option — which seems likely, whether it’s the Pirates, Mets or another trade partner — he’s still controllable through the 2024 season. Vogelbach would be arbitration-eligible in the 2023-24 offseason before reaching free agency in the 2024-25 offseason.

The 29-year-old Bell is hitting .311/.390/.504 with 13 home runs this season, striking out at a career-low 13.5% and drawing walks at a hearty 10.7% pace. He’s earning $10MM this season, and while the Nationals might be wary of sending long-term pieces to the division-rival Mets (e.g. Juan Soto), Bell is a free agent at the end of the year, which probably eliminates any such concerns from Washington’s vantage point.

It’s a similar story for the 42-year-old Cruz, who’s earning $15MM this season and has a mutual option for the 2023 campaign. Those are rarely exercised by both parties, however, and players with mutual options are generally considered rentals for this reason. Cruz got out to an awful start in 2022 but has produced a solid .283/.362/.425 batting line in his past 247 plate appearances. He’s only homered six times in that span, showing a decidedly uncharacteristic lack of power, but Cruz has still been a productive hitter if you’re willing to set aside a slow start to the year.

As for Cron, it’s understandable that the Mets would harbor interest, but a deal seems unlikely to come together. Although the Rockies are 19 games out of the NL West lead and six and a half games back of the NL’s third Wild Card spot, the organization has opted not to deal what look to be on-paper trade candidates for years now. Ownership in Denver steadfastly believes the foundation of a contending club is in place, as evidenced by the glut of extensions doled out over the past year (as well as the surprising signing of Kris Bryant to a seven-year deal).

One need look no further than last year’s deadline to see that Cron isn’t likely to be moved. The Rockies were in this position a year ago, when Cron was playing on a cheap one-year deal and looked like a slam-dunk candidate to be flipped to a contender. The Rockies instead kept him and inked Cron to a two-year, $14.5MM extension. To their credit, Cron has been overwhelming bargain, hitting .298/.350/.552 with 21 homers this year. That’s outstanding production, but if the Rox balked at moving him a year ago when he was a free-agent-to-be, it only stands to reason that they’d be further dissuaded from trading him now (even though the contract likely makes him more appealing to potential suitors). General manager Bill Schmidt said just last week that he does not expect to be a major seller this summer.

Any of the names listed here would likely serve as an upgrade over the combined .219/.300/.368 batting line that Mets designated hitters have put together this season. That production includes 90 very productive plate appearances by Pete Alonso as DH, which only underscores how rough the non-Alonso DH options have been at Citi Field this season.

As for what would happen with the current DH options the Mets have in-house, it somewhat unsurprisingly seems as though a change of scenery may be in the fold. Smith was just placed on the injured list due to an ankle sprain but could return by the middle of next week. The Cubs and Red Sox are among the teams to have talked to the Mets about a potential trade. Martino writes that the Mets are “working to trade Smith,” adding that Davis could be moved as well.

Smith has struggled in 2021-22 after a hugely productive 2019-20 showing, while Davis’ power numbers have tumbled this year despite eye-popping exit velocity and hard-hit numbers. Both are controllable for two years beyond the current campaign, which might make them appealing to a club that’s not a current contender but can afford to give Smith or Davis consistent playing time while showing a bit more patience than the Mets have the luxury of doing in a competitive setting atop the NL East.

Mets Place Dominic Smith On Injured List

By Steve Adams | July 21, 2022 at 10:47am CDT

The Mets placed first baseman Dominic Smith on the 10-day injured list due to a right ankle sprain, per a team announcement. The move is retroactive to July 17, so Smith will be able to return by the middle of next week, in a best-case scenario.

Smith’s placement on the IL comes with less than two weeks remaining before the Aug. 2 trade deadline. He’s been an obvious change-of-scenery candidate for much of the season and has reportedly been the subject of conversations with both the Cubs and the Red Sox. Smith’s placement on the IL doesn’t by any means eliminate the possibility of a trade; beyond the fact that he can return prior to the deadline, it’s not uncommon to see players flipped even while on the 10- or 15-day IL. (Look no further than Boston’s acquisition of Kyle Schwarber last summer.) That said, it does throw a wrench into things for the Mets, particularly since they’d be selling low on Smith in the first place.

The 27-year-old Smith hit .299/.366/.571 in 396 plate appearances with the Mets from 2019-20, giving the impression that he was making good on his status as a former first-round pick and top-100 prospect. In the two seasons since that time, however, he’s managed just a .233/.298/.345 batting line in 645 plate appearances, playing through a partial tear in his right shoulder’s labrum last season and struggling through inconsistent playing time so far in 2022. The Mets optioned Smith to Triple-A Syracuse at the end of May, and while he hit fairly well in the minors and has been a bit better since returning in late June, the overall results this season have been quite poor.

Smith is owed the remainder of a $3.95MM salary for the 2022 season and will be arbitration-eligible twice more before becoming a free agent following the 2024 season — assuming he’s tendered a contract, of course. At present, he looks like a clear non-tender candidate for a Mets team that won’t be able to afford him regular playing time upon his return from the IL, although another club might welcome the chance to buy low on Smith and hope that regular at-bats bring about production closer to his 2019-20 form.

Cubs, Red Sox Among Teams To Discuss Dominic Smith With Mets

By Steve Adams | July 20, 2022 at 8:19pm CDT

Mets first baseman/outfielder Dominic Smith has been an obvious change-of-scenery candidate for months, and Robert Murray of FanSided reports that the Cubs and Red Sox are among the teams to have recently spoken to the Mets about the 27-year-old.

It’s been a season to forget for Smith, who opened the year in a bench role that gave him limited playing time before he was optioned to Triple-A on May 31. Smith received 101 plate appearances over the season’s first two months, starting 22 of the team’s first 40 games — including just 13 of the Mets’ 29 games in May. Along the way, he struggled to a .186/.287/.256 batting line, losing more and more time to fellow DH candidate J.D. Davis.

Upon being optioned to Syracuse, Smith appeared in 15 games and turned in a .266/347/.438 batting line with a pair of homers, five doubles and three steals in 72 trips to the plate. He was summoned back to the big leagues in late June and has batted .208/.255/.333 in 51 plate appearances since — again seeing sparse playing time as a part-time option off the bench. He’s played in 19 games since returning but only played a complete game on nine occasions.

This is the second straight season in which Smith has struggled, though he acknowledged back in Spring Training that he played through a small tear in the labrum of his right shoulder during the 2021 season. That surely played a role in Smith’s lackluster .244/.304/.363 showing last season — particularly when comparing that output to the robust .299/.366/.571 slash he posted in 396 plate appearances from 2019-20.

Smith’s trade value is at a low point, given the consecutive poor seasons at the plate and minimal defensive value. He’s improved his glovework at first base in recent years but is miscast as a left fielder. Still, Smith is a former first-round pick (No. 11 overall in 2013) and multi-time top-100 prospect who, from 2019-20, looked to be well on his way to solidifying himself as a middle-of-the-order presence in Queens. Pete Alonso’s emergence understandably cut into his opportunities, however, and Smith’s playing time was further cut down this season when the Mets added Eduardo Escobar, Mark Canha and Starling Marte to an already crowded infield/outfield mix.

There’s some sense to both Boston and Chicago as potential fits for Smith, who is earning $3.95MM in 2022 and has two seasons of club control remaining beyond the current campaign. The Red Sox have seen Bobby Dalbec’s sky-high strikeout rates catch up to him as his 2020-21 batting average on balls in play has come back down to earth, and they could lose J.D. Martinez to free agency at season’s end. Franchy Cordero, meanwhile, got out to a decent start at first base in his latest big league look but has faltered since the calendar flipped to July. Cordero, Dalbec and top prospect Tristan Casas give the Sox some options at first and at DH beyond the 2022 season, but Smith is a sensible enough buy-low candidate to add to the mix.

Over at Wrigley Field, the Cubs have received poor production from both Frank Schwindel and Alfonso Rivas. The Cubs surely hoped that they’d unearthed a diamond in the rough after Schwindel erupted with an out-of-nowhere .342/.389/.613 slash and 13 homers in 56 games with them down the stretch in ’21, but Schwindel is hitting just .238/.283/.383 in a similar sample size this season. Rivas, meanwhile, is at .236/.313/.323 in his first extended big league audition. The Cubs have been threading the needle between rebuilding and also trying to add some interesting long-term pieces (e.g. Seiya Suzuki, Marcus Stroman), and Smith would align with that type of addition.

Given Smith’s pedigree and the production he displayed in 2019-20, it’s likely that other clubs will check in, hoping that a more consistent role might bring about a return to form. Smith hasn’t outwardly requested a trade from the Mets, but he’s also been candid when asked by reporters about the possibility of a trade, stating that while he loves the Mets organization, his goal is to be an everyday player — wherever that might be.

Mets Recall Dominic Smith

By Steve Adams | June 20, 2022 at 11:57am CDT

With teams cutting their pitching staffs down to 13 on Monday, the Mets announced that they’ve recalled first baseman/outfielder Dominic Smith from Triple-A Syracuse and placed righty Seth Lugo on the paternity list. Another arm will have to be sent out once Lugo returns from the paternity list later this week.

Smith was optioned to Triple-A earlier in the month after struggling through limited playing time and publicly acknowledging (when asked) that he’d prefer an opportunity to play every day — be it with the Mets or another club. He’s found more of a rhythm down in Syracuse, logging regular reps and hitting .266/.347/.438 with a pair of homers, five doubles, an 8.3% walk rate and a 16.7% strikeout rate in 72 plate appearances. Smith absolutely tore through International League pitching for the first two weeks after his demotion, though he’s fallen into a 3-for-24 skid over his past five games.

That’s a far cry from Smith’s 2019-20 form, when he was one of the NL’s best all-around hitters, posting a combined .299/.366/.571 slash with 21 homers in 396 trips to the plate. However, it’s also markedly better than the numbers he produced in 2021 while playing through a small tear in his shoulder (.244/.304/.363) or earlier this season in a heavily limited role (.186/.287/.256).

It’s possible this will be only a short-term move for Smith, as there’s still no clear path to regular playing time for him on the big league roster. Mark Canha, Brandon Nimmo and Starling Marte are one of the game’s most productive outfield trios, while Pete Alonso is enjoying some of the best production of his career at first base. J.D. Davis is hitting .339/.391/.452 over his past 20 games, mostly operating as the Mets’ designated hitter. One could argue in favor of Smith seeing regular DH work and Davis taking playing time from the struggling Eduardo Escobar at the hot corner, but Escobar was generally hitting fine before falling into a five-game hitless slump — and Davis’ defensive shortcomings are well-documented.

Ultimately, a trade of some sort seems like the most straightforward path to uncluttering the corner infield/designated hitter mix in Queens, with Smith or Davis standing as the most obvious possibilities to change hands. That said, there’s no pressure for the Mets to make an immediate move, and Smith could simply be optioned out again if the Mets want to add some more defensive versatility than he brings to the table. Both Smith and Davis have multiple minor league options remaining, meaning they can be freely optioned this year and next. It’s a relatively expensive pair of depth options to carry when there isn’t clear space for both on the 26-man roster — Smith is earning $3.95MM, Davis $2.76MM — but payroll issues of that nature are less concerning to the deep-pocketed Mets than to other clubs.

Mets Notes: Smith, Loup, Lindor

By Steve Adams and Darragh McDonald | June 3, 2022 at 9:07pm CDT

Mets manager Buck Showalter spoke with reporters about the team’s decision to option Dominic Smith to Triple-A this week, calling it a “difficult” conversation to have with the first baseman (link via Newsday’s Laura Albanese). “You always try to put yourself in their shoes knowing that, in a lot of cases, you can’t,” Showalter said of his conversation with Smith. “It’s one of those cases where someone says, I know what you’re feeling. No, you don’t. No, you don’t, so don’t act like you do. I’ve learned in situations like that, you’re better off listening than you are talking.”

Smith will play primarily first base in Syracuse, and Showalter voiced confidence in the 26-year-old’s ability to find his swing with the help of regular at-bats and to get back to the Majors sooner than later. For the time being, however, with a banged-up pitching staff, the Mets needed a extra arm. Smith had minor league options remaining and had been struggling through infrequent usage. The former first-rounder hit .299/.366/.571 from 2019-20, but he batted just .186/.287/.256 in 101 plate appearances this year. Smith told SI.com in March that he played through a small tear of the labrum in his right shoulder last year, and it’s certainly possible there are (or were) some lingering effects of that issue.

A few more notes out of Queens…

Former Mets lefty Aaron Loup chatted with SNY’s Andy Martino about his decision to sign with the Angels over the winter, revealing that the Mets indeed made an offer but did not match the two-year, $17MM terms he received from the Halos. Loup details that the Angels were aggressive from the jump, while the Mets took their time in putting together an offer as they sorted through front-office and managerial searches. Loup acknowledges that he and his agents “tried to stall the Angels as long as we could” while waiting to see if the Mets would match the offer. Ultimately, the Mets came in the $12-12.5MM range with a two-year offer, per Loup, who unsurprisingly opted for the larger guarantee in Anaheim. Loup has already allowed more runs in 18 2/3 innings with the Angels than he did in 56 2/3 frames as a Met last year, though the bulk of the damage against him has come over his past four appearances. No one expected the 34-year-old to replicate last year’s immaculate 0.95 ERA in the first place, and the fact that he’s sporting nearly identical strikeout, walk and ground-ball rates suggests that Loup ought to bounce back from this rough patch before long.
Showalter told reporters, including Anthony DiComo of MLB.com, that Francisco Lindor has “a form of” fracture in his finger. However, it doesn’t seem to be terribly serious, as Lindor is in tonight’s lineup, hitting third and playing shortstop. The injury came about in an unusual fashion, as he got his finger stuck in a hotel door. The shortstop seems to be in good spirits about the situation, joking with reporters about keeping the door open from now. “I ain’t touching that door,” Lindor said, per Tim Healey of Newsday. “It can stay open.” Lindor has been a key part of the club’s tremendous start to the season, as he’s hitting .261/.345/.442 for a wRC+ of 126. He’s also added seven steals and quality defense, accumulating 2.1 fWAR already with less than a third of the season played.

Mets Option Dominic Smith

By Steve Adams | May 31, 2022 at 2:06pm CDT

The Mets announced Tuesday that first baseman/outfielder Dominic Smith has been optioned to Triple-A Syracuse. Righty Adonis Medina has been recalled from Triple-A to take his spot on the active roster. Andrew Cohen of Sports Business Journal reported the news before the team announcement (Twitter link).

The demotion to Triple-A is the latest step in a pronounced downturn for Smith, who was one of the better hitters in the National League from 2019-20 when he slashed .299/.366/.571 through 396 trips to the plate. At that point, the former No. 11 overall pick and longtime top prospect looked to have finally solidified himself as a big league regular who could serve as a focal point in the Mets’ lineup for years to come.

The National League didn’t have the luxury of a designated hitter at that point, which complicated things from a playing time vantage point, given that the Mets also had Pete Alonso on the roster. Smith got a look in left field as the Mets hoped to keep both sluggers in the lineup, but through 1240 innings dating back to 2019, he’s posted dismal marks in the eyes of all defensive metrics (-7 Defensive Runs Saved, -8 Ultimate Zone Rating, -15 Outs Above Average).

Had Smith’s bat remained as productive as it was in 2019-20, perhaps the Mets might’ve lived with that poor glovework and given him a full slate of innings in left last year. However, Smith’s downturn at the plate began in 2021, when he slashed just .244/.304/.363 in 493 plate appearances. Smith told reporters this spring that he played through a small tear in his labrum last year (link via SI.com’s Pat Ragazzo), and he’s been been unable to rebound in 2022 while receiving sparse playing time alongside fellow defensively challenged slugger J.D. Davis. Smith has just 101 plate appearances on the year and has turned in a grisly .186/.287/.256 slash.

The Mets reportedly received trade interest on both Smith and Davis over the winter, but even after creating what looked to be an infield/outfield logjam they opted to hold on to both players. Between Alonso, Brandon Nimmo, Jeff McNeil and offseason signees Eduardo Escobar, Mark Canha and Starling Marte, it wasn’t clear just how Smith and/or Davis would fit into the infield/outfield rotation. So far, they really haven’t Smith’s 101 plate appearances speak to his limited use, and Davis has had even fewer plate appearances (90). Those plate appearance tallies haven’t been impacted by injury, either, as neither player has spent time on the IL in 2022.

Perhaps the Mets weren’t keen to sell low on Smith after he’d been such a productive hitter in 2019-20, but his stock has only dropped since the offseason. He’ll be able to get regular at-bats in Triple-A as he hopes to sort through his issues at the plate, and the hope is, of course, that more frequent reps at the plate will help him unlock his potential. Even if Smith rakes in Syracuse, though, he’ll still be looking up at the same crowded roster that led to such infrequent playing time to begin with.

Smith has been asked repeatedly about whether he’d prefer a trade to another team, and to his credit, he’s generally deflected those opportunities to speak out and stir the pot. Asked about the subject just two weeks ago, Smith reiterated his desire to play every day while continuing to speak positively about the Mets (link via Newsday’s Anthony Rieber). “I like where this team is going,” Smith said at the time. “I feel like I can impact this team in a number of ways, and that’s being [in the lineup] every day, in my opinion.” Smith did, however, acknowledge that the opportunity may not come with the Mets.

It’s a fine line for a player to walk, but it’d have been easy for Smith to clamor for a trade, either via interviews with the Mets beat or by more directly requesting a trade form the front office. To this point, neither has happened, though it’s feasible that being sent to Triple-A for the first time since 2018 (excluding a two-game rehab stint in ’19) could finally push him to do so. Then again, given his struggles since that huge showing in 2019-20 might make other teams wary to aggressively pursue a deal. A contending club, for example, isn’t likely to acquire Smith and plug him right into its everyday lineup, but it stands to reason that a rebuilding club might be more willing to do so.

Smith, after all, is controllable through the 2024 season, so he could be a multi-year piece should any team look to acquire him. Being sent to Triple-A won’t impact that timeline, as he entered the 2022 season with three years and 146 days of MLB service, meaning he needed only 26 days of service to reach four-plus years of service time. He’s already done that, so even in the unlikely event that he remained in Triple-A for the remainder of the season season, he’d still have the service time needed to qualify for free agency post-2024.

Optioning Smith to Triple-A should at least ostensibly appears to open some more playing time for the aforementioned Davis, who has top-of-the-scale exit velocity and hard-hit rates, even if the results aren’t there at this point. It could also mean some additional playing time for rookie Nick Plummer, who just surely turned some heads with a 4-for-8, two-homer showing in the Mets’ pair of games on May 29-30. With Canha, Marte and Nimmo all healthy, Plummer will be viewed more as a reserve option for now, but there’ll be some occasional outfield and DH at-bats available to him.

Mets Notes: Paddack, Hosmer, Smith, Bassitt

By Mark Polishuk | May 21, 2022 at 10:52pm CDT

Chris Paddack’s recent Tommy John surgery has brought a new focus on the rumored offseason trade between the Mets and Padres that would have seen San Diego move Paddack, Eric Hosmer, Emilio Pagan, and over $30MM (to help cover Hosmer’s salary) to New York in exchange for Dominic Smith. Trade talks reportedly got pretty deep between the two sides, but ultimately fell apart due to what The New York Post’s Jon Heyman reports as concerns from the Mets’ medical staff about Paddack’s health records.

With Paddack now on the shelf until at least partway through the 2023 season, it appears as though New York’s team doctors made the right call. Interestingly, Heyman reports that the Mets were also planning to flip Hosmer in another trade with an unknown team, rather than use the first baseman in their own lineup. Given the difficulties that the Padres have had for months in finding a taker for Hosmer, it would’ve been a little surprising to see him moved twice in short order, though it is also easy to imagine Hosmer’s market picking up with the Padres eating so much of his contract.

Padres, Mets Reportedly Stalled On Hosmer Trade Talks

By TC Zencka | April 2, 2022 at 4:57pm CDT

4:57PM: Jon Heyman of MLB Network reports that talks may have stalled entirely after the two sides “hit a snag” in negotiations. Sherman is even more blunt, saying the proposed trade “is not going to happen.”

8:50 AM: A potential deal between the two sides would be a little more complex than initially presumed. Per Joel Sherman of the New York Post (via Twitter), the Padres would unsurprisingly need to eat a fair amount of the money owed to Hosmer in order to make this deal work. Specifically, the Padres would cover roughly $30MM or more of Hosmer’s deal, bringing Hosmer’s per annum down to $6-7MM per year, per Sherman.

The Mets would also get reliever Emilio Pagan in the deal. Pagan has at times looked like a premier bullpen arm during his five seasons in the bigs with the Mariners, Rays, A’s, and Padres. The 30-year-old is an option to close games if he stays in San Diego, whereas in New York he would slot into a fairly deep collection of right-handed setup arms that includes Adam Ottavino, Drew Smith, Miguel Castro, Trevor May, and Seth Lugo.

7:55 AM: The Mets have spent the offseason pushing full-bore towards fielding a competitive squad, but the fragility of an offseason win became clear yesterday with the news of ace Jacob deGrom being shut down for the next four weeks. The panic alarm has sounded, but the Mets are not without solutions.

In fact, they just so happen to have been in conversation with the Padres for the past couple of weeks about different trade scenarios, at least one of which could bring another arm to New York to help plug the leak. Per The Athletic’s Dennis Lin, Ken Rosenthal, and others, a potential deal could center around Eric Hosmer and Chris Paddack heading to the Mets, while Dominic Smith would go to San Diego.

The Padres have been trying to move off of Hosmer’s money for quite some time now, and the freewheeling Mets may now have a big enough need in the rotation to consider taking him back. There’s some urgency for the Padres here, as Hosmer’s partial no-trade clause turns into full 10-and-5 rights at the end of this season. Of course, if he is traded, Hosmer’s contract has a clause that says he cannot be traded twice without his consent, so he will essentially get his no-trade clause by the end of the 2022 campaign regardless for whom he plays.

With $59MM over four years left on his deal, Hosmer does not have positive trade value – not after fWAR totals of 0.0, 0.9, -0.3, and -0.1 over the past four seasons. Entering his age-32 season, one doesn’t expect Hosmer to flourish overnight. Furthermore, the Mets absolutely have no need for him, not with Pete Alonso on the roster.

Acquiring Hosmer would mean pushing the Mets deeper into luxury tax territory with a payroll nearing $300MM, notes Joel Sherman of the New York Post. The Mets might be willing to take him if they can reinforce their rotation at the same time, however.

Enter Paddack. The 26-year-old has three years of team control remaining and significant upside. He’s far from a sure thing, however. His numbers declined for the third consecutive season last year when he finished with a 5.07 ERA across 108 1/3 innings. A slightly torn UCL might be the cause of the decline, but that’s not necessarily a situation that has totally resolved itself. Paddack would, therefore, be an option to slide into deGrom’s rotation spot, but he’s far from a panacea for the Mets’ long-term concerns.

In the short term, he might not even be an upgrade over Tylor Megill, the presumptive fifth starter in deGrom’s absence. Megill posted a 4.52 ERA/4.69 FIP over 18 starts covering 89 2/3 innings in 2021 – his first taste of big league action. The Mets could certainly begin the season with Megill in the rotation and see how things go from there.

For the Padres part, their motivation would mostly be to shed Hosmer’s contract. They have enough rotation depth, theoretically, to weather the loss of Paddack, and in Smith, they’d be getting back a comparable bat that’s cheaper, more versatile, and with more theoretical upside than Hosmer. He’s also under team control for two more seasons beyond 2022, though those seasons aren’t guaranteed, should he continue to struggle at the dish.

For the first part of his career, the story on Smith was that he needed at-bats, but his natural position of first base was spoken for, so his ceiling was no more than that of a bit player. Then the designated hitter came to the NL in 2020, Smith starting taking flyballs in left field, and the offensive promise came to fruition with a .316/.377/.616 line over 199 plate appearances during the shortened campaign.

He again saw fairly stable playing time in 2021, but the numbers cratered to an 86 wRC+ by way of a .244/.304/.363 line across 494 plate appearances , more than doubling his previous career-high in that regard. The Padres do need a left fielder, and Smith could step right in at first base were this deal to go down. Still, for San Diego, this deal is mostly about moving off of Hosmer. There are options out there for left field – including former Met Michael Conforto – but Smith would certainly be worth rostering if acquiring him meant removing Hosmer from the payroll.

Mets No Longer Looking To Trade Smith, McNeil, Davis?

By Mark Polishuk | March 19, 2022 at 4:40pm CDT

Dominic Smith, Jeff McNeil, and J.D. Davis have all been mentioned as possible or even likely trade candidates due to the Mets’ new influx of position players, yet it now seems as though the club is leaning against a deal. According to SNY’s Andy Martino, the trio are now “expected to stay” in New York, with a trade of Smith or McNeil in particular looking like a “long shot.”

Of course, there could be some gamesmanship at play here for the Mets. Publicly, the club has always expressed an interest in keeping the players, with manager Buck Showalter saying earlier this week that he saw McNeil as the team’s regular second baseman. Saying the same thing privately could simply be a way of trying to entice more of a trade return from interested teams, as one would imagine the Mets would indeed deal any of the three players if another club made a big enough offer.

On the face of it, however, it also makes sense why the Mets would want to retain any or all of the three. Several members of New York’s veteran roster have battled injury problems either in past seasons or as recently as 2021, plus Robinson Cano is an x-factor in his return from a season-long PED suspension. Having Davis, McNeil, and Smith on hand as depth would be a big help for the Mets in the event of more injury problems, and the introduction of the DH spot also provides more opportunity to rotate bats in and out of the lineup, so everyone can theoretically stay fresh.

Health issues impacted each of Davis, McNeil, and Smith last season, resulting in only 73 games played for Davis, and both missed time and subpar performance for McNeil and Smith. It’s safe to assume that these injuries factored into trade talks, as rival teams were likely unwilling to pay a premium for anyone coming off a checkered season, while the Mets likely aren’t keen on selling low on any of the three players.

In Smith’s case, the first baseman played virtually the entire season hurt, as he recently told SI.com’s Pat Ragazzo. In trying to compensate for a wrist strain suffered in Spring Training, Smith then developed a partial tear in his right labrum in late May or early June. Labrum surgery wasn’t required, but between the shoulder and wrist problems and a groin injury, Smith hit only .244/.304/.363 with 11 home runs over 493 plate appearances.

After a lot of offseason work to heal and rehab, Smith told Ragazzo that “Nothing hurts right now. Trust me, if something hurts, everybody will know. I won’t be out there playing if I’m hurt. That’s something that’s going to change from the past.” In regards to his shoulder, Smith felt it had healed but “it’s good enough to go” for the season. “You still take some swings and feel stuff, and that’s just a part of it. But….it’s a lot better than last year, I will say that.”

Martino reports that the Padres are one of the teams who have interest in McNeil and Smith, and that interest in Smith has continued even in the wake of San Diego’s acquisition of first baseman Luke Voit. With Voit now adding to an already crowded first base/DH situation for the Padres, presumably any Smith deal would hinge on the Padres being able to fulfill their aim of trading Eric Hosmer, though Smith can also play left field. The versatile McNeil could play second base, third base, or either corner outfield spot for San Diego, which would give the Padres some flexibility as they try to fill the void left by Fernando Tatis Jr.’s wrist surgery.

The 14 Likeliest Trade Candidates After The Lockout

By Tim Dierkes | February 8, 2022 at 10:59pm CDT

We saw robust free agent activity prior to the December 1st lockout, with 30 of our top 50 free agents signing contracts. Over $2 billion was committed to 62 players on Major League contracts, by our count.

With all the focus on free agency, the trade market was relatively quiet. Position players Tucker Barnhart, Adam Frazier, Jacob Stallings, Joey Wendle, Jorge Alfaro, Hunter Renfroe, and Jackie Bradley Jr. were the biggest names on the move.

Though the lockout does not appear close to an end, we can assume it will conclude at some point. Once that happens, a scramble roughly four-to-six weeks in length seems likely to commence, in which both Spring Training and all remaining offseason transactions will take place. Aside from the expected free agent frenzy for the top remaining names, the trade market figures to kick heavily into gear.

Recently, I got together with Steve Adams and Anthony Franco to assess the potential trade market. We wound up putting trade candidates into several buckets. The first bucket, covered in this post, is simply players we feel are likely to be traded, whether stars or regulars. One caveat: many of these trade candidates are interconnected. For example, the A’s are almost certain to trade at least one of Sean Manaea, Chris Bassitt, and Frankie Montas, but we don’t expect them to trade all three. Without further ado, we present MLBTR’s 14 Likeliest Trade Candidates:

1. Matt Olson / 1B / Athletics

The A’s are widely expected to hold a fire sale as a means of reducing their payroll. Olson, who we project to earn $12MM in 2022 through arbitration, seems highly likely to be dealt. Olson is controlled for two more years through arbitration. He provides huge power from the left side and is set to turn 28 in March. Olson’s 39 home runs were tied for fifth in the AL last year, as was his 146 wRC+. Olson is not only known for his bat; his defense at first base ranked second in the game in the 2021 Fielding Bible Awards. It’s simply quite rare to find a 5-WAR player with two years of control like Olson available on the trade market; the last decent offseason comparable we can find is when the Marlins traded J.T. Realmuto to the Phillies three years ago.

There aren’t too many teams that couldn’t find a spot for Olson. He’s probably the one reasonable replacement for Freddie Freeman that Braves fans might find palatable. The Yankees, Dodgers, Rays, Rockies, Marlins, Brewers, Phillies, Padres, and Giants are other speculative fits, especially if the DH comes to the NL as expected. The Realmuto trade was led by Sixto Sanchez, considered a 65-grade prospect by Baseball America at the time of the deal. Teams these days are extremely reluctant to part with prospects of that caliber, who generally fall within the top 30 in the game. The A’s are in the driver’s seat as they look for the best overall offer.

2. Matt Chapman / 3B / Athletics

The Matts have been teaming up at the infield corners for the A’s since 2018. It’s quite possible both could be traded once the lockout ends. Chapman has consistently been an above average hitter in every year of his MLB career, though in 2021 he was only a tick above average with a 101 wRC+. In the three seasons prior, Chapman posted a 130 mark, hitting a career-best 36 home runs in 2019. Combine that level of offense with Chapman’s Gold Glove defense at the hot corner, and he was an MVP candidate in 2018-19. He’ll turn 29 in April.

Chapman’s stellar defense – ranked second in the game at third base in the ’21 Fielding Bible Awards – gives him a high floor even if his bat slips like it did in 2021. Chapman is so good defensively at third base that ESPN’s Buster Olney has reported that the Yankees talked internally about the possibility of acquiring him to play shortstop, which he has done for all of ten innings in the Majors. The result is a player who is worth more than 3 WAR with an average bat, and 6+ when he’s mashing. A new team would look to solve Chapman’s recent slide in contact and line drives at the plate, but the A’s aren’t selling Chapman quite at his peak.

Like Olson, Chapman is an arbitration eligible player with two more years of control remaining. We project him to earn $9.5MM in 2022. The Mariners, Blue Jays, Phillies, Yankees, Rays, Rockies, and Dodgers could be possible landing spots.

3. Sean Manaea / SP / Athletics

The A’s also have multiple strong trade candidates in their starting rotation. We’ll start with Manaea, who has only one year of control remaining and is projected to earn $10.2MM through arbitration. Manaea, a southpaw who recently celebrated his 30th birthday, made 32 starts in 2021 with a 3.91 ERA. While Manaea has a mid-rotation profile, he did show career-best velocity and his best swinging strike rate in ’21, with his customary excellent control.

After a July 28th gem in San Diego, Manaea had his ERA down at 3.01. He then posted a brutal 9.90 ERA in August before returning to form in September. Manaea’s Statcast indicators are not particularly impressive, whether you’re looking at exit velocity or spin rate.

Aside from Carlos Rodon and Clayton Kershaw, Manaea is still better than just about every starting pitcher still available in free agency. He’d benefit many teams’ rotations, including the Tigers, Angels, Twins, Orioles, Yankees, Mariners, Rangers, Braves, Cubs, Rockies, Dodgers, Mets, Giants, and Nationals.

4. Chris Bassitt / SP / Athletics

Bassitt, projected to earn $8.8MM in 2022, is yet another A’s trade candidate. It’s unclear whether the A’s would deal multiple starting pitchers, but again, we wouldn’t rule it out. Manaea and Bassitt make particular sense because both are headed for free agency after the ’22 season.

Bassitt, a righty, is approaching his 33rd birthday. Since 2020, he sports a 2.90 ERA in 220 1/3 innings – seventh in all of baseball for those with at least 200 innings in that time. In 2021, Bassitt’s 18.8 K-BB% was a career best. Unlike Manaea, Bassitt also boasts above average Statcast indicators, especially an 88th percentile hard-hit percentage. Whether that’s enough for Bassitt to continue outpitching his SIERA as he has is unknown, but you can’t argue with the results so far.

Bassitt suffered a scary injury in August when a Brian Goodwin line drive struck his face, but fortunately he was able to return for a pair of outings in September. He should command a higher price on the trade market than Manaea, although the two pitchers are not that far apart in projections for 2022.

Wondering about Frankie Montas? He’s a trade candidate as well, but we’ve put him into more of a “plausible” bucket than “likely,” and he’ll be covered in an upcoming post by Steve Adams.

5. Lou Trivino / RP / Athletics

Trivino makes it a quintet of A’s to lead off this post. The 30-year-old righty is a decent reliever projected to earn $2.9MM in 2022. He still has three years of control remaining and he’s not making a lot of money yet, but there’s also not a compelling reason for the A’s to hang on to him this offseason.

Trivino posted a 3.18 ERA in 2021, along with a 95.8 mile per hour average fastball velocity and 85th percentile hard-hit rate. Still, his K-BB% was only 10.6. After picking up his 21st save against the Giants on August 20th, Trivino’s ERA stood at 1.72. Then he went through a rough five-outing patch in which he allowed 13 earned runs in only 3 2/3 innings. After that, Trivino recovered and pitched well in his final 11 outings.

Trivino doesn’t have great control, and he hasn’t always been a strikeout artist either. So it’s not an amazing profile, but he’s had success at times and is affordable and controllable. He can fit in somewhere as a seventh or eighth inning reliever.

6. Craig Kimbrel / RP / White Sox

The Cubs’ June 2019 signing of Kimbrel was going poorly until the 2021 season, when he put up a dominant 0.49 ERA and 46.7 K% in 36 2/3 innings. The Cubs sold high and shipped Kimbrel across town to the White Sox for Nick Madrigal and Codi Heuer. Kimbrel struggled with the Sox, posting a 5.09 ERA while being done in by the longball. The White Sox still chose to pick up Kimbrel’s hefty $16MM club option instead of taking a $1MM buyout. They’ve already got Liam Hendriks in the closer role, and signed Kendall Graveman to a $24MM contract.

As I wrote in December, White Sox GM Rick Hahn spoke openly about trading Kimbrel, saying, “We’ve had conversations with other clubs and have a sense of what is potentially available.” Hahn added, “It’s easy to make the assessment that if you put him back in the closer’s role, it’s what he’s accustomed to and he’s more likely to have success.” I don’t find that to be a particularly reliable assessment: put Kimbrel back in a closer role, and he’ll be good again. That didn’t prove true for the Cubs in 2019 or 2020.

I think the White Sox would very much like to trade Kimbrel, but they may have overestimated his popularity in the market at his salary. Perhaps they’ll need to kick in a few million or take a decent-sized contract back to make it more palatable. I’m not sure if an intra-division trade could be worked out, but the Royals have spoken of trying to upgrade their bullpen. The Rays, Rangers, Blue Jays, Marlins, Mets, and Phillies could make some sense, but only if the money can be worked out and if the White Sox finds a team that actually believes Kimbrel will succeed in ’22.

7. Kevin Kiermaier / CF / Rays

Kiermaier, 32 in April, has been the Rays’ primary center fielder for the past seven seasons. He’s picked up three Gold Gloves in that time, and ranked third in the game in the ’21 Fielding Bible Awards. With the bat, a league average season is generally the best case scenario. Kiermaier signed a six-year deal with the Rays back in 2017. He’s owed $12MM this year plus a $2.5MM buyout on a $13MM club option for ’23.

Kiermaier has been involved in trade rumors for years, but this may be the point where the Rays finally pull the trigger. Baseball America ranks Rays prospect Josh Lowe 44th overall in the game, noting that he plays a plus center field. Lowe also posted a 142 wRC+ at Triple-A, so he appears ready to take over. The club can also give center field innings to Manuel Margot, Brett Phillips, and Vidal Brujan.

Teams like the Phillies, Yankees, Braves, Cubs, Rockies, Marlins, Giants, and Nationals could be potential fits for Kiermaier.

8. Dominic Smith / LF-1B-DH / Mets

And now we enter the Mets portion of the list. Smith was the Mets’ primary left fielder in 2021, but they added Mark Canha in free agency. They’ve also got Pete Alonso locked in at first base and Robinson Cano set to DH. A Smith-Canha platoon isn’t in the cards, since the Mets aren’t paying Canha $12MM this year to be the short side of one and Smith oddly hit lefties better than righties this year anyway.

There are certainly scenarios where Smith stays put, especially if the club decides they’d rather give him a good share of DH at-bats than Cano. But, Smith doesn’t really have a spot right now and he posted an 86 wRC+ in 2021. It’s possible the Mets are ready to move on.

Why would anyone be interested? Keep in mind that Smith was drafted 11th overall out of high school back in 2013, and prior to the ’17 season was considered a top-70 prospect in the game. After struggling early in his career, he posted a 150 wRC+ over 396 plate appearances from 2019-20 and crushed both lefties and righties. He seemed primed for a 30 home run season in ’21. Instead, Smith spent about three months as a regular in 2021 – May through July. He had a 111 wRC+ in that time, but around August began sitting against lefties in favor of Kevin Pillar.

Smith is still only 26 years old. He’s projected to earn $4MM this year and has three years of control remaining. I think many teams will be interested in giving him regular playing time at left field, first base, or DH. The Guardians, Rays, Rangers, Cubs, Rockies, Phillies, Pirates, and Padres are a few that come to mind.

9. J.D. Davis / 3B-LF / Mets

Davis is another Mets player who doesn’t seem to have a spot in 2022. He split time between left field and third base in 2019 and served as the club’s primary third baseman in 2020. This year, Davis began as the Mets’ Opening Day third baseman, but spent significant time on the DL for a hand contusion and sprain, which ultimately led to surgery in October. By August, Davis had fallen behind Jonathan Villar on the team’s third base depth chart. While Villar is now a free agent, the Mets brought Eduardo Escobar in and he’s penciled in at the hot corner for ’22. As we mentioned before, the team also imported Canha for left field and may choose to give a lot of DH time to Robinson Cano.

Since Davis came to the Mets in a January 2019 trade with the Astros, all he’s done is hit. Davis has a 130 wRC+ in 893 plate appearances from 2019-21. A right-handed hitter, he’s gotten to face lefties a disproportionate amount in that time (34% of his plate appearances), but Davis has handled both lefties and righties well. It’s worth pointing out that since 2019, Davis’ wRC+ ranks fifth among third basemen, and his work is only a hair behind Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Jose Ramirez.

Aside from health, however, Davis’ defense at both third base and left field has been below-average. It’s possible he shouldn’t be logging 1,000 innings per year at either position. On the other hand, we’re likely headed toward a game with 30 DH jobs. While it’s true that teams generally prefer to use that spot to rotate players these days, the NL DH is undeniably of benefit to a player like Davis. I’m not sure a contender would install him as a regular third baseman, but the bat certainly plays.

Davis, 29 in April, is projected to earn $2.7MM this year and has three years of control remaining.

10. Jeff McNeil / 2B-LF-3B-RF / Mets

As the only one who has played second base or right field, McNeil is the most versatile of the three Mets trade candidates listed here. As such, he’s the least likely to be traded. In fact, McNeil may end up as the team’s primary starter at second base in 2022.

Still, the Mets felt the need to trade for Javy Baez and play him at second base last summer, and Cano got most of their second base innings in 2019 and ’20. Escobar is also capable of playing second base. McNeil could serve in a utility role, but the club does have Luis Guillorme on the roster as well. It’s not too difficult to picture McNeil being traded, nor would it be surprising if he stays. Since there is overlap in positions, all three Mets listed here are interconnected. A trade of one may mean the others are safe.

McNeil started off his Mets career on fire, with a 140 wRC+ in 1,024 plate appearances over 2018-20. Though that didn’t constitute everyday playing time, he did rank 13th in all of baseball in wRC+ during that period. A left-handed hitter, McNeil has always beat up on right-handed pitching, but he’s plenty good against southpaws as well. McNeil is a high-contact hitter, with the game’s tenth-lowest strikeout rate from 2019-21.

Similar to Dominic Smith, McNeil’s bat dropped off late in 2021. McNeil was placed on the IL in May with a hamstring strain, knocking him out over a month. He raked in July with a 155 wRC+, but fell to a 68 mark in the season’s final two months.

McNeil doesn’t have a ton of defensive innings at any one position, but his work at second base has been solid and there’s a lot of value in his versatility and bat. 30 in April, McNeil is projected to earn $2.8MM this year and has three years of control remaining.

11. Willson Contreras / C / Cubs

Contreras wasn’t a heralded prospect until 2016, when he generated buzz before the season and took over the Cubs’ starting catching job. As a rookie, he was athletic enough to log 180 2/3 innings in left field as well. Contreras has been an above-average hitter in each of his six seasons, which is especially impressive for a catcher. Over the last three seasons, his 115 wRC+ ranks second in baseball among all catchers, even ahead of J.T. Realmuto.

Contreras ranked eighth among catchers in the 2021 Fielding Bible Awards, and his pitch framing has improved from earlier in his career. WAR is always tricky with catchers. FanGraphs sees Contreras more in the 2-3 WAR range per year, while Baseball-Reference has more 3-4 WAR type seasons on his ledger.

The 29-year-old Contreras is one of the last remaining players from the Cubs’ 2016 championship club, along with Kyle Hendricks, Jason Heyward, and manager David Ross. The Cubs have been unable or unwilling to extend Contreras, who is set to make around $8.7MM this year before hitting free agency. Before the lockout, the Cubs signed Yan Gomes to a two-year, $13MM deal, giving the club insurance in the event they decide to trade Contreras. At least, Contreras seemed to take it that way.

On the other hand, the Cubs struggled last year to find a decent backup catcher, and Gomes could help reduce Contreras’ workload. The Cubs have also supplemented the 2021 club with the pickups of Marcus Stroman and Wade Miley, so the team has at least some aim on contending. A Contreras trade is not guaranteed, although it will be a seller’s market for catchers when the lockout ends. A midseason trade is a possibility as well. The Yankees, Guardians, Mariners, Rangers, and Giants could be potential suitors.

12. Sonny Gray / SP / Reds

Gray, 32, was able to increase his strikeout rate significantly after coming over to the Reds from the Yankees in a January 2019 trade. He made the All-Star team and finished seventh in the NL Cy Young voting in ’19. His underlying skills haven’t changed a ton since then, but his batting average on balls in play returned to normal and in 2021, more home runs left the yard.

Gray tossed 135 1/3 innings in 2021, spending time on the IL for back spasms, a groin strain, and a rib cage strain. Still, after a fine July 7th start in Kansas City, Gray had his ERA down to 3.19. He put up a 5.03 ERA in his final 14 starts to finish the season at 4.19, his worst mark in a Reds uniform.

Gray is under contract for $10MM this year, with a $12MM club option for 2023 that will likely merit consideration. He seems to represent the clearest path for the Reds to cut payroll; we’ll be addressing rotation-mates Luis Castillo and Tyler Mahle in a separate post.

The Reds have shown recently with the Raisel Iglesias trade and Wade Miley waiver claim that under pressure to slash salary, they can give up good players for little to no return. Quite a few teams are likely eyeing up Gray with this in mind.

13. Jake Odorizzi / SP / Astros

Last March, with Framber Valdez fracturing a finger on his throwing hand, the Astros made a late deal for Odorizzi. After signing late, Odorizzi made his Astros debut on April 13th. Weeks later, he hit the IL with a right pronator muscle strain that knocked him out for over a month. In September, Odorizzi expressed frustration after being pulled from a start after only 66 pitches. In the following start, he exited early with a foot injury. Though he did return in the regular season, Odorizzi was left off the Astros’ ALDS roster.

Heading into 2022, the Astros have seven healthy starting pitchers, and Odorizzi probably ranks last on that depth chart. 32 in March, Odorizzi is owed only $5MM this year. He has a $6.5MM player option for 2023 with a $3.25MM buyout.

Odorizzi has significant contract incentives for 2022: $500K for 100 innings pitched, and then $1MM each at the 110, 120, 130, 140, and 150 inning marks plus $1.25MM at 160 innings. You can imagine he won’t be excited to serve as the Astros’ long man to open the season. The Astros might need to kick in some money or take back a contract, but Odorizzi can still help quite a few teams in the middle or back of their rotation.

14. Luke Voit / 1B-DH / Yankees

Voit is currently projected to start at first base for the Yankees. However, there’s a decent chance they’ll seek an upgrade, whether that’s bringing Anthony Rizzo back, trading for Matt Olson, or even signing Freddie Freeman.

Though Voit hasn’t been able to maintain the dizzying heights of 2018 (188 wRC+ in 161 PA) or 2020 (153 wRC+ in 234 PA), the problem has been more health than production. This year, Voit appeared in only 68 games due to knee surgery, an oblique strain, and a bone bruise and inflammation in his knee. He had four separate IL stints, but he’s expected to be ready for spring training.

With Giancarlo Stanton signed through 2027, the Yankees might not be a good home for Voit, who might have an easier time staying healthy with regular DH time. We project Voit to earn $5.4MM this year. He fits with Dominic Smith and J.D. Davis on the trade market: an interesting bat without an ideal defensive home.

If you’re wondering where a certain player was on this list, don’t worry! We’ve got all sorts of additional trade candidate posts on the way.

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