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Central Notes: Pirates, Twins, Cardinals

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On the heels of a 76-86 season and a fourth place finish in the NL Central, the Pirates are looking for upgrades in several areas. Starting pitching appears to be a focus for Pittsburgh this offseason, particularly on the heels of yesterday’s news that right-hander Johan Oviedo is set to undergo Tommy John surgery. Beyond their club’s need for multiple starting pitching additions, GM Ben Cherington has indicated that his front office hopes to make a veteran addition at first base this offseason, as the club did by inking Carlos Santana last offseason.

While Santana is a free agent again this offseason, FanSided’s Robert Murray suggests a pair of recently non-tendered sluggers who could be of interest to the Pirates this offseason: Rowdy Tellez and Dominic Smith. Tellez, 29 in March, is coming off an injury-plagued 2023 campaign where he managed just 351 plate appearances but was among Milwaukee’s best hitters in 2022 with a .219/.306/.461 slash line and 35 home runs in 599 trips to the plate. Smith, meanwhile, is a former first-round pick who saw significant success with the Mets in 2019-20, slashing .299/.366/.571 in 139 games across the two seasons. He’s struggled since then with a .243/.311/.355 slash line over the past three seasons, though he did bounce back somewhat with the Nationals in 2023 to post a roughly league average line of .254/.326/.366 in 153 games as the club’s regular first baseman.

More from around MLB’s Central divisions…

  • As the Twins look to reduce payroll this offseason, La Velle E. Neal III of the Star Tribune relays that Minnesota’s efforts to cut costs have not been limited to the major league roster. The club’s scouting department has seen a number of departures thanks to both desire to trim payroll and “streamline” the club’s scouting apparatus with an emphasis on analytics. Among the scouts who have parted ways with the Twins this offseason, per Neal, are Bill Milos, Rafael Yanez, and Mike Larson, all of whom Neal indicates will be replaced internally. Neal adds that the club also parted ways with director of Latin American scouting Fred Guerrero, who has since joined the Royals, but Guerrero’s position will be filled by external hire Ramon Barinas going forward. In addition to these scouting changes, the Twins figure to consider a variety of avenues to trimming salary off the major league roster this offseason, perhaps including a trade of glove-first catcher Christian Vazquez.
  • Cardinals right-hander Andre Pallante was among the club’s most valuable rookies in 2022, when he posted a 3.17 ERA and 3.98 FIP in 108 innings split between the rotation and bullpen. Though Pallante posted a below-average 16% strikeout rate that season, he made up for it with a fantastic 63.9% groundball rate. Things didn’t go so smoothly for Pallante in 2023, however, as the righty’s ERA soared to 4.76, 8% worse than league average by measure of ERA+ despite an even stronger 77.8% groundball rate in 68 innings of work as a full-time reliever. Daniel Guerrero of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch writes today that Pallante, 25, has already begun working on pitch shapes and mechanics this offseason after spending time at a sports performance facility in North Carolina. If the adjustments help Pallante recover his 2022 form, it would be an excellent turn of events for a St. Louis club hoping to turn things around after a 91-loss season and a last-place finish in the NL Central as the young righty looks to contribute to the club’s late-inning mix alongside Ryan Helsley, Giovanny Gallegos, and JoJo Romero.

National League Non-Tenders: 11/17/23

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The deadline to tender a contract to arbitration-eligible players is tonight at 7:00pm CT. Here’s a rundown of fairly minor players on National League teams who have been non-tendered today. This post will be updated as more decisions are revealed. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projected salaries for all players eligible for arbitration last month.

All players who are non-tendered before this evening’s deadline go directly into free agency without being placed on waivers. They’ll be eligible to sign with any of the league’s 30 teams. It’s not uncommon to see non-tendered players almost immediately return to their previous organization on a minor league deal.

The transactions:

Latest Moves

Earlier

  • The Reds have non-tendered relievers Derek Law and Reiver Sanmartin. Cincinnati also confirmed the previously reported non-tender of Nick Senzel.
  • In addition to Rowdy Tellez and Brandon Woodruff, the Brewers have non-tendered right-hander J.C. Mejía. He failed a PED test in September, the second such result of his career, and was suspended for 162 games.
  • Former Rookie of the Year winner Kyle Lewis was non-tendered by the Diamondbacks. He played in only 16 games after being acquired from the Mariners last offseason.
  • The Cubs non-tendered relievers Ethan Roberts, Brandon Hughes and Codi Heuer. All three are recovering from surgeries.
  • Right-hander Tommy Doyle was non-tendered by the Rockies. Colorado designated him for assignment when acquiring Cal Quantrill this morning.
  • The Cardinals have non-tendered catcher Andrew Knizner, first baseman Juan Yepez and starting pitchers Jake Woodford and Dakota Hudson. St. Louis reportedly tried to deal Hudson this afternoon but evidently did not find a taker.
  • The Mets have non-tendered relievers Jeff Brigham, Sam Coonrod and Trevor Gott. New York also cut loose infielder Luis Guillorme and confirmed the reported non-tender of Dan Vogelbach.
  • Left-hander Josh Fleming was non-tendered by the Phillies, the team announced. Philadelphia just snagged the southpaw off waivers from the Rays a few weeks ago.
  • The Marlins have non-tendered catcher Jacob Stallings and infielder Garrett Hampson, per a club announcement. Stallings spent two seasons as the primary catcher after being acquired from the Pirates at the 2021-22 offseason. Hampson signed a minor league deal with the Fish last season.
  • The Pirates non-tendered Osvaldo Bido and Hunter Stratton, tweets Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. Neither had yet been eligible for arbitration. Both right-handers made their big league debuts in 2023; Mackey suggests the Bucs will try to bring them back on minor league pacts.
  • The Nationals announced they’ve non-tendered first baseman Dominic Smith and right-hander Cory Abbott. Both players were designated for assignment earlier in the week, making this an inevitability.

Nationals Designate Dominic Smith For Assignment

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The Nationals announced Tuesday that they’ve designated first baseman Dominic Smith and right-hander Cory Abbott for assignment. Washington has also granted righty Andres Machado his release so that he can pursue an opportunity in Japan. That slate of moves clears space on the 40-man roster for lefties DJ Herz and Mitchell Parker as well as righties Cole Henry and Zach Brzykcy. That quartet of pitchers is now protected from next month’s Rule 5 Draft.

Smith, 28, was a first-round pick, longtime top prospect and (more briefly) a quality run producer for the division-rival Mets prior to being non-tendered in the 2022-23 offseason. From 2019-20, Smith treated the Mets to a stellar .299/.366/.571 batting line in 396 trips to the plate. He swatted 21 homers and connected on 31 doubles in that time before stumbling to a .643 OPS over his next two seasons and being cut loose. Smith’s lone year in D.C. brought about a rebound to some extent, as he turned in a .254/.326/.366 batting line with a dozen homers, but that wasn’t enough for the Nats to retain him and offer him a raise in arbitration.

Also 28 years old, Abbott has spent the past two seasons with the Nats. The former Cubs farmhand has logged 87 1/3 innings of 5.87 ERA ball in the Majors with Washington, fanning 21.3% of his opponents against an 11% walk rate. Abbott posted strong minor league numbers up through the Double-A level and once ranked as one of the Cubs’ more promising pitching prospects, but he’s now struggled in both Triple-A (5.46 ERA in parts of three seasons) and the big leagues. He’s out of minor league options as well, which could make it tough for another club to claim him.

Both Abbott and Smith will be traded or placed on waivers within the next week. Both can become free agents if they’re unclaimed.

As for Machado, he’ll start the next chapter of his career overseas — likely on a seven-figure guarantee that wouldn’t have been available to him in North American ball. He’s out of minor league options and not yet arbitration-eligible, so he was likely to lose his 40-man roster spot and spend next year trying to work his way back to the big leagues.

From 2021-22, Machado was a quietly solid member of the Washington bullpen, tallying 91 appearances and 95 innings of 3.41 ERA ball. He benefited from a .264 average on balls in play and had success in spite of pedestrian strikeout and walk rates of 18.3% and 9.9%, respectively.

Some degree of regression appeared in store, but perhaps not to the extent he saw in 2023 when he was torched for a 5.22 ERA in 50 innings despite marked improvements in his K-BB profile (20.8% strikeout rate, 6.3% walk rate). While Machado improved in terms of missing bats and limiting free passes (to say nothing of a 1 mph uptick in fastball velocity, to 96.7 mph on average), he also become staggeringly homer-prone; in 50 innings he served up 12 long balls — 2.34 homers per nine frames (and a home run on 24% of the fly-balls he yielded). He’ll take that plus velocity and improved command overseas, though it’s not yet clear precisely which team he’ll join.

All four of the prospects added to the Nationals’ 40-man roster today rank among their top 30 prospects at MLB.com. Herz is 22 years of age, while the others are all 24. Herz was the Cubs’ eighth-round pick in 2019 and came to the Nats by way of this summer’s Jeimer Candelario trade. He punched out nearly a third of his opponents while working as a starter in Double-A but also issued walks at almost a 14% clip. Injuries have plagued the career of Henry, a 2020 second-round pick with a potentially plus slider and plus-plus changeup. He pitched just 33 1/3 innings this past season. Similar to Herz, Parker is a lefty who missed bats in droves in the upper minors but did so with shaky command. Brzykcy is a bullpen prospect with a power fastball who missed the 2023 season due to Tommy John surgery.

Who Could The Nationals Trade At The Deadline?

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This year’s trade deadline seems like it has the potential to be unique, with very few clear sellers. The expanded playoffs and weak Central divisions mean that there are only five teams that are more than eight games out of a playoff spot at the All-Star break.

One of those five clubs is in Washington, as the Nationals have been rebuilding in recent years. Stars like Max Scherzer, Trea Turner and Juan Soto have been flipped in deadline deals over the past two seasons, which unsurprisingly has led to them being one of the few noncompetitive clubs here in 2023. Their 36-54 record has them in last in the National League East and they’re 13 games back in the Wild Card race.

The Nats therefore stand out as one of the few clear sellers at this point, with just over three weeks until the August 1 deadline. They no longer have superstars like those mentioned above, but there are still some players that should attract attention.

Rental Players

Jeimer Candelario

Candelario, 29, is one of the most straightforward trade candidates in the league. He’s an impending free agent having a great season on a team that’s clearly in a position to sell. MLBTR recently listed the top 50 trade candidates for this summer and Candelario took the #2 spot, trailing only Lucas Giolito of the White Sox.

The third baseman was seemingly breaking out in Detroit not too long ago, putting up solid numbers both in 2020 and 2021. He produced a .278/.356/.458 batting line over those campaigns for a 125 wRC+ and was considered around league average defensively, leading to a tally of 5.8 wins above replacement from FanGraphs in 201 games. Unfortunately, just about everything went wrong in 2022 as he hit just .217/.272/.361 for an 80 wRC+ with subpar defensive grades.

The Tigers non-tendered him instead of paying him a projected $7MM salary for his final arbitration season, and the Nats swooped in with an offer of $5MM plus $1MM of incentives. It looks like that investment will pay off handsomely for the Nats, as Candelario is having a bounceback season. He’s hitting .261/.337/.478 (118 wRC+) and his defensive grades are much stronger. With so few sellers and a pitching-heavy free agent class this coming winter, Candelario should be one of the most sought-after position players in the weeks to come.

Carl Edwards Jr.

Edwards, 31, missed much of the 2019-2021 period due to injuries and had to settle for a minor league deal with the Nationals prior to the 2022 season. He made it to the big league club in May of last year and posted a 2.76 ERA in 62 innings the rest of the way. He likely benefited from a .259 batting average on balls in play and 83.6% strand rate, but his peripherals were around league average.

The Nationals tendered him a contract for 2023, agreeing to a $2.25MM arbitration salary. He’s been solid this year, with a 3.69 ERA in 32 appearances. His 16.9% strikeout rate and 12% walk rate aren’t exciting, but he has a 46% ground ball rate and has allowed just one home run all year. He isn’t likely to fetch a ton as a rental reliever with worrying peripherals, but he’s fairly cheap and bullpen help is always in demand. He’s been on the injured list almost three weeks due to shoulder inflammation, however, so his health will be a clear factor in his market.

Corey Dickerson

Dickerson is a 34-year-old veteran who signed a one-year, $2.25MM deal with incentives in the offseason. The Nats were surely hoping he could serve as a veteran mentor to their younger players and perhaps play his way into being a deadline trade chip. Unfortunately, he’s hitting just .248/.278/.358 on the year for a wRC+ of 69. As a veteran left-handed hitter, he might get interest based on his track record, but the return would likely be mild even if he gets hot in the next few weeks.

Signed/Controlled For One Extra Year

Dominic Smith

Smith, 28, was a similar bounceback play to the Candelario signing. In 2019 and 2020 with the Mets, he hit .299/.366/.571 for a wRC+ of 150 but followed that up by hitting .233/.298/.345 over the next two years for an 82 wRC+. The Mets non-tendered him, and the Nats signed him to a one-year deal with a $2MM salary and $2MM in incentives.

Unfortunately, this deal hasn’t worked out nearly as well as the Candelario one. Smith is hitting .260/.328/.340 (85 wRC+) while playing first base only. Given the offensive expectations of that position, that’s clearly insufficient production. He can be controlled for 2024 via arbitration but is trending towards another non-tender unless he can turn things around.

Victor Robles

Robles, 26, was once considered one of the top prospects in the league but has yet to put it all together at the big league level. He’s always had the speed and defense combo working but has continued to struggle at the plate, coming into 2023 with a career batting line of .233/.306/.359 and a 78 wRC+.

He has shown some positive developments here this year, including a 14.3% strikeout rate that’s well below his 23.9% rate in previous years. His .299/.385/.364 batting line is a bit above average, translating to a wRC+ of 111. Unfortunately, that’s come in just 36 games as he’s twice gone on the IL due to back spasms, including his current stint. He’s making $2.325MM this year with a $3.3MM club option for 2024. Even if that were turned down, he could still be retained via arbitration.

Trevor Williams

Williams, 31, was primarily a starter with the Pirates for many years but had been deployed in a swing role by the Mets in recent seasons. He signed a two-year, $13MM deal to return to a starting role with the Nationals. He has a 4.45 ERA through 18 starts, striking out 17% of opponents while walking 7.5%. That low strikeout rate has led to a 5.41 FIP and 4.95 SIERA. He’s not going to command huge interest, but a club in need of a back-end innings eater could give Washington a call.

Patrick Corbin

Corbin, 34 next week, is having a bounce back year, at least in terms of results so far. His 4.89 earned run average is an improvement over his 6.31 figure from last year and the 5.82 from the year prior. That’s come despite a 15.2% strikeout rate, which is a few ticks below the past few seasons and would be a career low. On his back-loaded contract, he’s making $24MM this year and a massive $35MM next year. Even if the Nats paid all of that down, they likely wouldn’t be able to get much back in trade.

Longer-Term Players

Lane Thomas

Thomas, 27, is perhaps the Nats’ best chance to get a significant return this summer. He’s hitting .302/.347/.497 for a wRC+ of 126. His defense is generally considered a bit below average, but he’s stolen eight bases in 10 tries this year. It could be debated as to whether Thomas or Candelario is having the better season overall, but Thomas comes with two extra seasons of arbitration control beyond this one. He’s making $2.2MM this year and would be in line for a couple of raises in the upcoming campaigns.

He’s not a lock to be moved because the Nats could hold onto him and hope to return to contention while he’s still on the club. However, his trade value will only diminish as he gets closer to free agency and more expensive. It’s certainly possible that the Nationals return to contention in the coming years, but it will be a challenge with the division featuring a stacked Atlanta club, the ascendent Marlins and aggressive-spending Mets and Phillies.

Hunter Harvey

Harvey, 28, has been a solid reliever for the club over the past two years. Since the start of 2022, he’s made 76 appearances with a 2.86 earned run average, 28.4% strikeout rate, 7.7% walk rate and 41.2% ground ball rate. He’s continued to move into higher-leverage spots, earning 11 holds and eight saves this year. He could be retained for two more seasons via arbitration, but reliever performance is volatile and there’s always the risk of an injury. He’s making just $870K this year.

Kyle Finnegan

Finnegan, 31, is in essentially the same spot as Harvey, as he can be controlled via arbitration for two more seasons beyond this one. He has a longer track record, having established himself as a viable reliever back in 2020, but his results are less encouraging this year. His 3.38 ERA is still solid, but his strikeout rate has dropped from last year’s 26.1% to this year’s 22.4%, with his walk and ground-ball rates also moving in the wrong direction a bit. He’s making $2.325MM this year.

Tanner Rainey

Rainey, 30, is like Finnegan and Harvey in that he has two arbitration seasons after this one. But his situation is very different, as he had Tommy John surgery last August and is only now nearing a rehab assignment. Players on the injured list can still be traded, though the interest may be muted based on the uncertainty. He posted a 3.30 ERA last year with a 28.1% strikeout rate prior to going under the knife. He’s making $1.5MM this year.

Ildemaro Vargas

Vargas, 32 this weekend, has plenty of experience as a light-hitting utility player. He had a .233/.268/.355 career batting line by the end of 2021 for a wRC+ of 60 but had played every position except center field and catcher. He’s had better results at the plate since joining the Nats in August of last year, hitting .281/.310/.409 for a wRC+ of 98 in 289 plate appearances. He’s making $975K this year and can be retained via arbitration for two more seasons.

Joey Meneses

Unlike the other names on this list, Meneses isn’t approaching free agency or making a significant salary. The long-time minor leaguer finally got the call to the big leagues last year at the age of 30 and mashed 13 home runs in 56 games, finishing the season with a .324/.367/.563 batting line and 156 wRC+. He was only able to accrue 65 days of service time, leaving the Nats with six years of remaining control.

His production has naturally taken a step back in 2023, as he’s hit just six home runs and is batting .284/.328/.404 for a wRC+ of 98. He’s been on a mini heater of late, as four of those six homers came in the club’s last three games before the break. The Nats could simply hang onto Meneses given that he’s not slated for arbitration until after 2025 or free agency until after 2028. However, his late-bloomer trajectory means that he’s already 31 years old and will likely be in his mid-30s by the time the club is in contention again. Perhaps the best course of action would be to cash him in for younger players now — if there’s sufficient interest in the next few weeks.

____________________________

The Nationals were the star sellers of each of the past two deadlines, flipping Scherzer and Turner two years ago and then Soto last year. They don’t have any players that could reach that level, either in terms of publicity or prospect return. However, Candelario is one of the best rentals available and should net them some decent value. If they get more aggressive and move controllable players like Thomas, Harvey and Finnegan, they could go even farther in stockpiling young talent for future seasons.

Nationals To Sign Dominic Smith To One-Year Deal

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The Nationals and first baseman/outfielder Dominic Smith are in agreement on a one-year deal, pending a physical. He will make a $2MM salary with a further $2MM available in performance bonuses. Smith is a client of Roc Nation Sports.

Smith, 28 in June, is a former first round pick, having been selected by the Mets 11th overall in 2013. He went on to earn high praise from prospect evaluators, with Baseball America ranking him one of the top 100 prospects in the game in 2014, 2016 and 2017. He struggled in his first tastes of the majors in 2017 and 2018 but seemed to finally click in 2019. He hit 11 home runs in 89 games and produced a batting line of .282/.355/.525. That production was 34 percent better than league average, as evidenced by his 134 wRC+.

The problem was that 2019 was also the rookie breakout of Pete Alonso, who launched 53 home runs and cemented himself as the first baseman in Queens. That forced Smith to move off first and spend more time in left field, where he’s been ranked as a poor defender. He continued hitting in the shortened 2020 season though, launching 10 home runs in just 50 games and finishing with a line of .316/.377/.616, wRC+ of 166.

The past couple of campaigns have been a struggle, as he played through a partially torn labrum in 2021 and saw his batting line fall to .244/.304/.363 and a wRC+ of 86. In 2022, he struggled at the start of the season while battling J.D. Davis for playing time and was optioned to Triple-A for a time. He finished the year with a batting line of .194/.276/.384 in the majors for a 67 wRC+, but a .284/.367/.472 in the minors for a 122 wRC+.

Smith still could have been retained via arbitration for another couple of seasons, with MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projecting him for an arbitration salary of $4MM in 2023. Instead, the Mets decided it was time to move on and non-tendered him. Smith will now join the Nats at a slightly lower guarantee but still could get to that $4MM figure via the incentives. If he has a successful campaign, the Nats can retain him for 2024 via arbitration, or use the extra year as a selling point in shopping Smith at the deadline.

Perhaps more importantly, Smith has a chance to get a regular job as a first baseman for the first time in years, with Bob Nightengale of USA Today reporting that’s where Smith will be playing. The rebuilding Nationals had Josh Bell at first for 2021 and the first half of 2022, but he went to the Padres in the Juan Soto trade and is now a free agent. The Nats got Luke Voit back in that deal but non-tendered him at season’s end. After Bell’s departure, 30-year-old rookie Joey Meneses got an extended look and mashed 13 home runs in 56 games. He will likely get plenty more at-bats in 2023 but he can also play the outfield corners, or he and Smith could share first base and the designated hitter slot. Jeimer Candelario could be in the mix as well, though he and Carter Kieboom will be jockeying for the third base job.

Since being non-tendered by the Mets, Smith has also garnered interest from the Rays, Royals, Cubs and Padres. If those clubs are still looking to bolster their first base depth charts in the coming weeks, some of the remaining free agents include Voit, Trey Mancini, Eric Hosmer and Brandon Belt.

Bob Nightengale of USA Today first reported that the two sides were in agreement on a one-year deal. Robert Murray of FanSided first reported the financial breakdown.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Which Remaining Free Agent Hitters Were Shifted The Most In 2022?

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It was announced back in September that Major League Baseball would be implementing some new rules for the 2023 season. One such change will be the limiting of defensive shifts, with teams required to have two infielders on each side of second base and all four on the near side of the outfield grass at the time the pitch is released.

The exact ramifications of these changes will be discovered as the 2023 season progresses, but the hope is that some routine grounders turn into hits instead. Those players who have been shifted the most could stand to reap the most benefit from the new environment. The prototypical example of the hitter that is the most harmed by the shifts has been a plodding and pull-happy left-hander who can be neutralized by having an infielder in deep right field. However, each player is unique and will have been attacked in different ways, so let’s look at the data, with a minimum of 100 plate appearances required to be considered here. Which free agents were shifted the most in 2022? (Quick note that Stephen Vogt has been excluded since he previously announced 2022 would be his last season.)

1.  Rougned Odor – 93.8%
2. Kole Calhoun – 93.4%
3. Zack Collins – 88.9%
4. Brett Phillips – 88%
5. Brandon Belt – 85.2%
6. Mike Ford – 84.6%
7. Jed Lowrie (as a lefty) – 83.5%
8. Robbie Grossman (as a lefty) – 82.6%
9. Michael Perez – 81.8%
10. Mike Moustakas* – 81%
11. Tommy La Stella* – 80.5%
12. Josh VanMeter – 79.7%
13. Luke Voit – 76.9%
14. Colin Moran – 75%
15. Adam Duvall – 71.7%
16. Gary Sánchez – 70.5%
17. Dominic Smith – 70.4%
18. Jackie Bradley Jr. – 64%
19. Jurickson Profar (as a lefty) – 63.8%
20. Didi Gregorius – 60.3%

(* – Moustakas and La Stella technically aren’t free agents right now. However, they were both recently designated for assignment and are likely to be released given their onerous contracts.)

Odor has been quite awful at the plate recently, with his batting average finishing at .207 or below in each of the past four years. However, his batting average on balls in play has been at .244 or below in each of those seasons, well below his earlier career marks and the .290 league average in 2022. Perhaps the shift bans could get him closer to his earlier career number when he hit between .259 and .271.

Belt hit .285/.393/.595 over 2020 and 2021, good enough for a wRC+ of 162 which trailed only Juan Soto and Bryce Harper among all MLB hitters in that time. He was actually shifted more in those two seasons than he was in 2022. Injuries limited him to just 78 games and tepid production this year, but perhaps better health and some more open space on the field could help him return to being one of the best hitters in the league.

As for the rest, some of these guys are role players or aging veterans, but a few of them could be sneaky value pickups in the latter half of the offseason. Like Belt, many of them are coming off disappointing and/or injury-marred years and will be looking to bounce back in 2023. Grossman posted a 118 wRC+ over 2020 and 2021 but just an 82 this year. Voit had a 153 wRC+ in the shortened 2020 season but dipped to 112 and 102 in the past two campaigns. Duvall had a 108 wRC+ over 2019-2021 but an 87 here in 2022. Sánchez recorded a 143 wRC+ in his first two seasons but just a 96 in the following five years, including an 89 in the most recent campaign. Smith posted a huge 150 wRC+ over 2019 and 2020 but has slid to just 82 since. Profar is coming off a decent campaign and is arguably the best free agent still unsigned.

Cubs Have Had Discussions With Dominic Smith

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After signing Cody Bellinger to a one-year, $17.5MM deal today, the Cubs could wind up landing another left-handed power bat, with Anthony DiComo of MLB.com reporting the team has had discussions with Dominic Smith at the Winter Meetings. Smith is a free agent after the Mets non-tendered him.

Smith has struggled in the past two seasons, playing through a partially torn labrum last year and never got going in 2022, as he battled for playing time with J.D. Davis and ultimately found himself optioned to the minor leagues. He finished 2022 with a .194/.276/.284 batting line without a single home run, good for a well below average 67 wRC+.

With that being said, Smith has showed plenty of promise over his career, and has been the victim of circumstance in some regards. The 27-year-old was drafted 11th overall in 2013 and regularly featured on top-100 prospect lists as he came through the minors. He received some time in the majors in 2017 and 2018, but showed his offensive promise in 2019, when he slashed .282/.355/.525 with 11 home runs in 197 plate appearances. That also happened to be the same year Pete Alonso burst onto the stage, and forced Smith to spend time in left field, where he graded out poorly defensively.

Boosted by the presence of the DH in the National League in 2020, Smith continued hitting in that pandemic-shortened season, slashing .316/.377/.616 with ten home runs. Yet things tailed off in 2021 as injury sapped his power, and Smith has never really been able to get another look in and the Mets opted to non-tender instead of paying him a projected $4MM arbitration salary.

While his 2022 numbers won’t drive much interest, he’d make sense for teams willing to take a flier on him rediscovering his plentiful upside. Of course, one of the problems Smith faced in New York was a lack of regular playing time, so while times may see him as a high-upside bench bat, he may be more inclined to seek out opportunities where he can start, at least initially.

The Cubs currently have Matt Mervis and Alfonso Rivas penciled into the first base and designated hitter slots, so there’s certainly room there for them to add a player like Smith. The Cubs have also held long-standing interest in him, as DiComo adds that the Cubs discussed a trade with the Mets this past summer involving Smith. The Rays and Royals have both shown interest in Smith earlier this off-season as well.

Padres Unlikely To Pursue Other Shortstops After Missing Out On Trea Turner

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The Padres’ bid to sign Trea Turner —  which reportedly included a larger offer than he accepted in Philadelphia, even after accounting for California’s higher income tax — caught plenty of fans and pundits off-guard. The Padres already have Fernando Tatis Jr., Ha-Seong Kim, Manny Machado and Jake Cronenworth as options in the infield, and San Diego also has a pair of $300MM players on the roster in Machado and Tatis (though the former could opt out following the 2023 season).

There’s been speculation (here included) about whether Padres president of baseball operations A.J. Preller will pivot and look into the remaining All-Star shortstops in free agency, but Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune reports that Turner was viewed as a special case and that the Padres were singularly interested in him, rather than adding another shortstop to the mix. As such, it’s unlikely that the Friars will pursue any of Carlos Correa, Xander Bogaerts or Dansby Swanson in the wake of being spurned by Turner. The Athletic’s Dennis Lin does write that the Padres have checked in with Bogaerts this offseason, but Lin adds that Turner was the team’s “clear” preference. MLB.com’s AJ Cassavell adds that the Padres have not spoken to Kim or Cronenworth about a position change at this time.

Preller acknowledged the team’s interest in Turner and the disappointment in not landing him when speaking with Acee and others on the San Diego beat Monday evening. Part of Turner’s appeal, as Preller explained, was his athleticism and experience playing positions other than shortstop, which the Friars believed could create some more flexible lineup choices.

Even if the Padres are out of the mix (or, at best, on the periphery) for the remaining shortstops, the strong bid for Turner is still plenty notable. It underscores that even with a star-studded roster and a payroll that many expected to be reaching its maximum levels, Padres ownership is willing to spend at levels commensurate with the sport’s very biggest financial powers. The Padres paid the luxury tax in 2022, have a projected $210MM bottom-line payroll in 2023 and a projected $230MM in luxury-tax obligations, per Roster Resource, but were apparently still content to put down a $300MM+ offer on Turner.

That doesn’t necessarily mean that San Diego will pivot and dive headlong into the bidding for Aaron Judge, but it also at least opens the door for speculation about such top-of-the-market pursuits. Preller spoke of a corner bat and a starting pitcher as his top needs. Acee suggests that San Diego has looked into reunions with Josh Bell and Brandon Drury in addition to the recently non-tendered Dominic Smith, illustrating the  vast breadth of possibilities the team is considering with Turner now in Philadelphia.

Rays, Royals Linked With Dominic Smith

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The Rays and Royals “could have interest”in free agent slugger Dominic Smith, according to Mike Puma of the New York Post. Smith was recently non-tendered by the Mets after a disappointing campaign in 2022.

Two years ago such a move would have been unfathomable after Smith slashed .316/.377/.616 with ten home runs in the pandemic-shortened 2020 season, earning down-ballot NL MVP votes for his efforts. However, it’s been a tough slide for the 27-year-old who’s been worth a combined -1.1 fWAR in the two seasons since.

The beginning of that slide came last year, when Smith played through a partially torn labrum in his shoulder and hit just .244/.304/.363 with 11 home runs. His struggles continued into 2022 as he battled for regular playing time, he ended up splitting time between Triple-A and the big leagues. With the Mets, he’d finish up hitting .194/.276/.286 without a single home run, good for a wRC+ of just 67. He went a lot better at Triple-A, slashing .284/.367/.472 with ten home runs in 54 games.

The Mets’ decision to non-tender him drew to a close and underwhelming time in Queens for a player who was drafted 11th overall in 2013 and regularly featured on top-100 prospect lists. His combined 150 wRC+ over the 2019 and 2020 campaigns showed Smith had the talent to excel at the highest level, but emergence of Pete Alonso blocked Smith at first base and he had to spend a fair bit of time in the outfield, where he graded out poorly.

MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz pegged Smith for a $4MM salary in arbitration, so given his age, talent and low-cost it’s not surprising to see a couple of smaller market teams linked to him. The severe drop in power since his shoulder problems is a big concern, but he had a strong line at Triple-A and it’s possible he’d benefit from the regular playing time he often found hard to come by in New York.

For the Rays, the need at first base is obvious after they traded Ji-Man Choi to the Pirates early in the off-season. Smith could take over as Tampa Bay’s everyday first baseman, while filling in in the outfield and at designated hitter when needed.

It’s less obvious in Kansas City, where the emergence of rookie Vinnie Pasquantino at first base makes the addition of another left handed slugger less important. Of course, the Royals don’t currently have a clear DH option, and Smith could well spend time there while spelling Pasquantino at first base from time-to-time, but they do also have left handed hitter Ryan O’Hearn, and Salvador Perez will likely spend time at the DH spot moving forward, so there’s not a clear need for a hitter like Smith.

There’s no guarantee Smith would perform like a starter for either team, even if they’re willing to offer him regular playing time. However, there’s plenty of upside for the acquiring team, which would also control him via arbitration for the 2024 season, while the likely insignificant financial cost would make parting ways a bit more palatable if Smith were to continue his struggles to begin the season.

Mets Expected To Non-Tender Dominic Smith

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The Mets are expected to non-tender first baseman/outfielder Dominic Smith prior to tonight’s deadline, according to Anthony DiComo of MLB.com.

The news is not shocking now though it would have been two years ago. Smith was a first round draft pick, selected 11th overall by the Mets in 2013. He was one Baseball America’s list of top 100 prospects in the league in 2014, 2016 and 2017. In 2019 and 2020, he delivered on that hype by hitting .299/.366/.571 for a wRC+ of 150 over 139 games. The only problem was that Pete Alonso burst onto the scene at the same time, taking over Smith’s natural first base position. That forced Smith into left field, a position that he wasn’t well-suited to play. His poor work out there on the grass took some of the value away from his strong performance at the plate.

The situation got even worse over the past couple of seasons, as Smith played through a partially torn labrum in his shoulder in 2021 and hit just .244/.304/.363 for a wRC+ of 86. He struggled out of the gates in 2022 while jockeying with J.D. Davis for a role and got optioned to the minors, openly admitting that he felt he would benefit from more playing time. He finished the year with a batting line of .194/.276/.384 in the majors for a 67 wRC+, but a .284/.367/.472 in the minors for a 122 wRC+.

MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projected Smith for an arbitration salary of $4MM but it seems the Mets aren’t willing to pay that kind of money for him. If it indeed comes to pass that he is non-tendered, he will make for an intriguing addition to the first base free agent market. It seems like his bat might still be in there and a team willing to give him regular playing time could benefit, especially if they can put him back at his natural home of first base. He has between four and five years of MLB service time, meaning he could be retained for 2024 via arbitration if he has a successful season somewhere in 2023. Once a free agent, he would be competing for jobs with the likes of Jose Abreu, Josh Bell, Trey Mancini and Yuli Gurriel.

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