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Mariners Hot Stove Chatter

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John Hickey of the Seattle Post-Intelligencer discusses the Mariners’ offseason situation in today’s column.  Let’s summarize.

  • Jose Guillen will probably decline his $9MM option for ’08, no surprise there.  An "inside source" of Hickey’s doesn’t expect him back with Seattle.  That puts Ichiro in center and Adam Jones in right, which hopefully makes up for the unpleasantness of Raul Ibanez in left.
  • Hickey sees the Mariners having about $15MM to spend this winter.  If $10MM of that went to Guillen the Ms would be severely limited in pitching acquisitions.  Instead they should and probably will just spend all of it to get at least two hurlers.
  • As you know, Hiroki Kuroda is on the radar.  I can’t figure out what kind of contract to expect for Kuroda.  I’m guessing two or three years at at least $5MM per.  I can’t think of a good comparable, as Matsuzaka and Igawa were not free agents.
  • U.S.S. Mariner believes Bartolo Colon is the "hidden gem of free agent pitchers," and officially endorses signing him.  They suggest he could net a one-year, $9MM deal or maybe two years, $16MM.  That sounds fair and I agree that Bart looks like a possible bargain.  Scour the free agent list – who’s your #1 bargain among starters?  Viva El Birdos likes Jon Lieber.  I’ll cast a vote for Brett Tomko.   

Top 3 Japanese Free Agents

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I asked JapanBall’s Bob Bavasi for his thoughts on the Top 3 Japanese Free Agents who may come over to MLB this winter.  He kindly obliged, providing a couple of paragraphs on each.  His summaries are below.

1. Kosuke Fukudome, Dragons.  Left-handed hitting outfielder from the Dragons in Nagoya.  Can play any outfield position, but probably best in right.  A solid, no-nonsense type player, with a terrific glove and sound arm, he’s the best Japanese position player in either league.  Absolutely no secret about this guy. 

2. Hiroki Kuroda, RHP, Hiroshima Carp.  This fellow is probably a number three or four starter in the big leagues.   Was 12-8 this season in 26 starts with a 3.56 ERA.  A free agent last year, he decided to stay in Japan by signing a four-year deal with the Carp, but with a clause therein that allows him to test the waters when he so desires.  He’s probably going to do so now.  The Carp just announced that his arm was okay after a medical exam in the United States.  If you’re looking for more info on Kuroda, check out this post at East Windup Chronicle.

3. Masahide Kobayashi, RHP, Chiba Lotte Marines.  This closer was the number one draft pick by the Chiba Lotte Marines in 1999.  He may be the best available reliever on the free agent market, though he has not made the sort of overtures about wanting to leave Japan as the other two.  During the recent playoffs in Japan, his manager, Bobby Valentine, noted that Kobayashi keeps "looking better every time out.”  True enough, and a reason I like him.

Kuroda To Have Elbow Examined

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According to this article, Japanese starter and possible MLB import Hiroki Kuroda is headed to L.A. to have his elbow examined by Dr. Lewis Yocum.

That was my friend’s and Babelfish’s rough translation, at least.  If you actually speak Japanese, feel free to add more detail in the comments (or email me).

I believe the article says that Kuroda is mainly coming to the U.S. to watch Japanese players in the World Series.  The possiblity of another surgery is low.

The Cubs and Mariners have been linked to Kuroda so far.

Odds and Ends

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More random rumors and reading material!

  • Baseball Prospectus’ Nate Silver discusses Ryan Braun’s undeniably terrible defense at third base, suggesting some interesting trade and signing permutations to get him into right field.  Also note that Kevin Kouzmanoff is a butcher at third; maybe the Friars will be in the market for Mike Lowell this winter (a player they’ve expressed interest in in the past).
  • Awesome headline for this Garrett Atkins article.  Steve King discusses how the Phillies would be a fine fit for a trade, throwing the Dodgers, Twins, Angels, and Astros into the mix as well.  Note that Atkins has a career line of .269/.344/.437 on the road and .336/.399/.528 at Coors.
  • Sid Hartman is hearing that Walt Jocketty could end up in Baltimore.
  • The Daily Herald’s Scot Gregor proposes some kind of Jon Garland for Bill Hall swap, or even a Carl Crawford acquisition by the White Sox.  I don’t think the Sox and Rays match up too well for that. 
  • I thought he’d stay, but Joe Torre has turned down a one-year, $5MM offer from the Yankees.  The proposal had another $3MM in incentives and a vesting option for 2009 if the Yanks won the ’08 World Series.
  • It’s Hiroshima or MLB for Hiroki Kuroda.  Apparently the Ms already have their eye on him.  Paul Sullivan also said recently that the Cubs will be in the mix.

Ted Berg On Japanese Pitchers

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SNY’s Ted Berg has an informative blog post about Japanese pitchers who may come over to MLB for the 2008 season (found via MetsBlog).  Berg discusses the situations of Koji Uehara, Hiroki Kuroda, Kenshin Kawakami, Hitoki Iwase, Masahide Kobayashi, and Kazumi Saito.

So far only Uehara and Kuroda have been discussed here at MLBTR.  I’m planning to dig up some info on Iwase, but the other three guys are new to me.

Japanese position players to have on the radar include outfielder Kosuke Fukudome and shortstop Tomohiro Nioka.

Cubs, Mariners Interested In Hiroki Kuroda

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The Chicago Tribune’s Paul Sullivan had some information regarding Japanese starter Hiroki Kuroda in his column yesterday.  Apparently the Cubs and Mariners are leading the pack for his services, should he choose to opt out of his contract.  According to Sullivan, Kuroda signed a four-year, $10.4MM deal with the Hiroshima Carps last winter.  He would have no problems getting three years, $12MM over here.

Kuroda, a 32 year-old righty, won the Central League ERA title in ’06 with a 1.85 mark.  That ballooned to 3.56 this year as the command master saw his home run and hit rates rise.  Kuroda could be very successful in the NL Central.  If my guess on his price tag is correct, he could be one of few free agent bargains this winter.

Odds and Ends: A-Rod, Boras, Pettitte

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Early Monday morning reading material…

  • Interesting article in the New York Daily News regarding Scott Boras and Alex Rodriguez.  Boras insists that many of his clients have not taken the largest deal offered to them, giving examples.  The article also touches upon recent Boras clients connected to performance-enhancing drugs (Rick Ankiel and Scott Schoeneweis).  Boras’ agency is known for its obsessive attention to detail for all of its clients, and seeing a few of them busted raises some questions.
  • Last winter, we discussed the possibility of Hiroki Kuroda coming over from Japan.  Well, he’s a free agent again, and Nick Cafardo is wondering if 2008 will be the year.  Cafardo also noted that Daisuke Matsuzaka did not earn the Red Sox nearly as much marketing revenue as Scott Boras suggested.
  • Newsday’s Ken Davidoff says Andy Pettitte intends to exercise his $16MM player option for 2008.  Davidoff points out that Pettitte has the same deadline for this decision as A-Rod has for his opt-out.  Davidoff also mentions that Roger Clemens’ most likely destination for 2008 appears to be back in Houston, if he plays.
  • You’ve probably heard by now that Hank and Hal Steinbrenner will have final say on baseball decisions (especially Hank).  Hank will insist Joba Chamberlain be used as a starter in ’08, heightening the need to re-sign Mariano Rivera.
  • The Hardball Times tries to place dollar values on some top free agents, plus Adam Dunn.

Cubs Trade Speculation

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What are those crazy Cubs up to now?  They’ve got some surprising plans regarding their pitching staff.  Here’s the rundown:

  • Ryan Dempster may switch back to starting, after he mentors the future closer.  Dempster made six starts for the Cubs to begin 2005, four of which were quality efforts.  Apparently the Cubs think his repertoire is better suited as a starter.  He’s due $10.5MM for 2007-08, and if he can emerge as a quality #4 type starter the contract won’t look so bad.  Dempster’s best season came in 2000 with the Marlins, when he made the All-Star team and won 14 games.  His success will depend on his control.  It doesn’t appear that the Cubs are shopping him, though Paul Sullivan speculated that the Yankees could be interested.
  • Angel Guzman will be groomed as the next Cubs closer.  This is an interesting and unexpected idea.  He’s looked sharp in relief this year, but it’s only been seven innings.  He does have good stuff and decent control.  Phil Rogers offers a little Chad Cordero speculation.  It seems the Cubs will try internal options first, with the knowledge that most great closers were once starters.
  • Rogers seems to think the Cubs should let the inconsistent Carlos Zambrano walk after this season, and focus that money towards a big name hitter.  He names Andruw Jones, Torii Hunter, and Kosuke Fukudome as options.  I like the Fukudome idea.  According to Mike Plugh, Fukudome is best served as a right fielder.  A Cubs outfield of Soriano, Pie, and Fukudome could be a nice core.  Not sure where that would leave Matt Murton, however.
  • Rogers also reminds us that the Cubs nearly signed Japanese ace starter Hiroki Kuroda last winter, and could try again after the season.  Kuroda has great command, and won’t require a posting fee.  Kuroda chose to re-sign with the Hiroshima Carps last winter.  He’ll turn 33 before the 2008 season.

Update on Igawa, Kuroda, Iwamura

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As you probably have read, Japanese ERA leader and free agent Hiroki Kuroda has re-signed with his current team the Hiroshima Carps.  It was expected that he would stay in Japan, but it was thought he might sign with the Hanshin Tigers to be their ace.

At one point, the posting of 27 year-old southpaw Kei Igawa by Hanshin was said to depend on the team signing Kuroda to replace him as the staff ace.  Despite that option disappearing, it is expected that Igawa will still be posted this week.

71% of Japanese baseball fans filling out this survey believe Igawa will not succeed in the Majors (the orange represents "will not succeed.")

38 year-old starting pitcher Masumi Kuwata is a free agent and will try his hand at MLB this season.  The righty hasn’t pitched well since 2002, however.  He might not make it out of Triple A, but the Indians have already shown interest.

The winning bid for third baseman Akinori Iwamura will not be made public by Yakult, but it is estimated to be just $1MM.  The winning team should be known around Monday or Tuesday.   

Hiroki Kuroda To Stay In Japan?

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Japanese free agent and ERA leader Hiroki Kuroda is leaning towards playing for the Hanshin Tigers in 2007.  Kuroda was said to be on the Cubs’ wish list.

Should Kuroda join Hanshin, the likelihood of Kei Igawa being posted increases because Hanshin would have their ace.  However, Kuroda could still be convinced to play in the U.S. and will take about a week to decide.

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