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Ian Kennedy

Twins Back Down On Santana Demand

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Murray Chass reports this morning that the Twins have scaled back their demands for Johan Santana, at least with the Yankees.  He says they are now willing to substitute Jeff Marquez for Ian Kennedy.  So the Yankees would have to give up Phil Hughes, Melky Cabrera, and Marquez (and one more player, I’m guessing). 

Marquez is a 23 year-old Double A righty who probably does not fall within the Yankees’ top ten prospects.  He seems a more reasonable demand than Kennedy.  About three weeks ago, Bill Madden said the Yanks could’ve acquired Santana for Hughes, Cabrera, Marquez, and Mitch Hilligoss but bailed out for financial reasons.

Anyway, Chass adds that the Yanks would be hit by luxury tax if they acquired and extended Santana.  For example, a five-year, $100MM deal would result in a constant $7.5MM annually in luxury tax.  This does not seem to bother the Yankees.

Nick Cafardo wrote a few days ago that the Red Sox are standing pat with an offer of Coco Crisp, Jon Lester, Justin Masterson, and Jed Lowrie for Santana.  For what it’s worth, David Ortiz doesn’t think the Sox will get Johan.

Dan Haren Will Be Pricey

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UPDATE, 12-4-07 at 11:09pm: Hank Steinbrenner weighed in on the Haren-Yankees talks, calling Billy Beane’s request "ridiculous."  The Yankees are out on Haren.

UPDATE, 12-4-07 at 2:00pm: Nick Piecoro’s source says Conor Jackson is not a part of the Haren talks, actually.

UPDATE, 12-4-07 at 12:13pm: The Boston Herald’s Rob Bradford says the A’s and D’Backs have had "constructive talks" about Haren for Carlos Gonzalez, Conor Jackson, and two others.

FROM 12-4-07 at 10:58am:

OK, you already knew that.  But Joel Sherman has details.

  • Billy Beane sees Dan Haren as equal in value to Johan Santana, all things considered.  Over the next three years, that could be true – plus Haren is much more reasonable in terms of salary.
  • Beane’s focus is young pitching.
  • Beane doesn’t want Melky Cabrera from the Yankees.  He wants a package starting with Phil Hughes and one of Ian Kennedy or Alan Horne.
  • Sherman says the Mets don’t have the blue-chippers in Mike Pelfrey, Phil Humber, and Kevin Mulvey. 
  • The Dodgers and D’Backs match up better for Haren than the Yankees and Mets, though Arizona doesn’t really have the young pitching.
  • Joe Blanton won’t be cheap either; Beane equates him with Brad Penny.
  • Athletics Nation believes Blanton is much more likely to be traded than Haren this winter.

Beane Has High Asking Price For Haren

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Did you expect anything different?  Billy Beane is happy to field offers on Dan Haren and Joe Blanton, but he’ll require a king’s ransom for either pitcher.  Jayson Stark says Beane asked the Yankees for two of Phil Hughes, Joba Chamberlain, and Ian Kennedy for Haren.  With the Red Sox it was two of Clay Buchholz, Jon Lester, and Jacoby Ellsbury.  The Mets would have to pony up Carlos Gomez and Fernando Martinez.  With two starters under contract through 2010, Beane and the A’s are sitting pretty.

One source of Stark echoes the popular sentiment that Miguel Cabrera in an Angels uniform would prompt a full-on A’s firesale.  That would include Huston Street, Dan Johnson, Mark Kotsay, and Rich Harden.  You have to admit, that would be fun.  Maybe the Brewers won’t give up Rickie Weeks for Chad Cordero, but how about Street?

Johan Santana Rumors

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UPDATE, 12-3-07 at 12:02am: Not only will Johan veto any midseason deal, he’ll veto any deal to a team other than the Yankees or Red Sox.

UPDATE, 12-2-07 at 8:30pm: Hank weighs in, reiterating the deadline.  He says the third player actually isn’t the sticking point.  Thanks Hank!

UPDATE, 12-2-07 at 7:30pm: The Yanks’ deadline on their offer, which no one is taking seriously, is for end of day Monday.  Brian Cashman has given Bill Smith a list of possibilities for the third player in the deal.

UPDATE, 12-2-07 at 6:15pm: Ken Rosenthal says Santana told the Twins he won’t waive his no-trade clause during the season.  It’s now or never.  The packages the Yankees and Red Sox are offering are definitely better than two draft picks, especially since there’s no guarantee one of them will be a first-round pick.  I’d be surprised if he’s not moved this week.

UPDATE, 12-2-07 at 1:30pm: Buster Olney is reporting that the Sox will include Ellsbury in their offer, but pull Lester out of it.  Basically the Twins can have one or the other.  Olney doesn’t say whether Buchholz/Ellsbury is possible, but I imagine it’s not.  The Twins are expected to choose an offer from Boston or New York soon.

FROM 12-2-07 at 8:45am:

When we left off last night, the Twins and Yankees were still haggling over the third player in a Johan Santana trade.  The Twins wanted Alan Horne or Austin Jackson, according to Jon Heyman.  Now comes word from Tyler Kepner that those two are considered untouchable in the deal by the Yanks.  Dellin Betances, Ian Kennedy, and Jose Tabata round out the five that they will not include as the third player.

It’s said that the Yankees will turn to Dan Haren if they don’t reach an agreement with the Twins today or tomorrow.  The Twins still like Jacoby Ellsbury more than Phil Hughes, so they’re trying to get the Red Sox to replace Coco Crisp with him in their offer.

Heyman On Santana

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SI.com’s Jon Heyman has the latest on the Johan Santana trade talks.

  • The Twins want Melky Cabrera plus one of Chamberlain/Hughes/Kennedy from the Yankees.  If the Yanks can surrender Kennedy rather than Hughes or Joba, they’ve done a nice job.  Sounds like they would consider giving up Hughes though.
  • The Twins want one of Clay Buchholz or Jon Lester plus Jacoby Ellsbury.  Lester seems to be the only one of the three the Red Sox would part with, while they’d also be fine with sending Coco Crisp over.
  • Heyman names the Mets, Dodgers, Angels, and Mariners as interested parties.  First I’ve heard of the Ms or Halos being in the mix.  Regarding the Dodgers, check out an interview with Ned Colletti.  For what it’s worth, he doesn’t seem anxious to deal 3-5 kids for a guy like Santana or Miguel Cabrera.

Santana for Melky, Hughes, and Prospect?

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Tim recently posted about the Yanks inquiries into the Twins organization for Johan Santana.  Peter Abraham shares what he’s heard of the rumors for the lefty ace.

Melky Cabrera would give Minnesota a center fielder to replace Torii Hunter if he bolts. The Yankees could then offer the Twins Phil Hughes or Ian Kennedy along with a second prospect.

If Melky and Kennedy plus a prospect can land Santana, I can’t see why the Yankees wouldn’t do that, even if only for the opportunity to get a leg up on signing baseball’s best pitcher to a long term deal.  But I would assume it would take a lot more.  Lots of names are being tossed around along with Philip Hughes, particularly Robinson Cano, names that are most likely the premium the Twins would demand and perhaps a deal-breaker for the Yankees.

Posted by Nat Boyle

Yanks To Pursue Rowand?

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A source of mine with Yankee connections had some good info for me today.  Much was discussed yesterday in Tampa.

For starters, the Yanks are expected to make "eye-popping" offers to retain Jorge Posada and Mariano Rivera before the World Series ends.  The team does not want the pair to file for free agency.

Additionally, the Yankees may make a big play for Aaron Rowand.  They believe a package of Melky Cabrera, Chien-Ming Wang, and Ian Kennedy would entice the Twins for Johan Santana.  That’s a huge price, but doesn’t seem out of line to me for the best pitcher in baseball.

My source didn’t have anything about Andy Pettitte, who hated seeing Joe Torre go and will take a month to decide if he’s even going to play next year.

Sunday Morning Santana

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Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe discusses the names being thrown around for Johan Santana.  As well as the Kemp/Kershaw for Santana, Cafardo quotes an AL Executive:

One AL executive theorized, "There are a few teams who could match up with the Twins. Would the Yankees deal Melky Cabrera and an Ian Kennedy for Santana? How about Boston? Would they send a Clay Buchholz and a Jacoby Ellsbury for him? The Mets? There are few teams who could handle the paycheck you’d have to give Santana and also be able to part with key prospects."

If that logic is correct, it narrows the list of suitors considerably.

MLBTR readers made the astute point in the Kemp/Kershaw comments that if a team is going to give up two Major League-ready prospects, the deal would be contingent on a re-signing of Santana.  A one year rental is most likely not going to appeal to any GM handing over otherwise untouchable commodities such as a Buchholz/Ellsbury or a Kennedy/Cabrera or a Kemp/Kershaw.

Which teams, therefore, can afford the likes of baseball’s best starting pitcher?

Here’s an intriguing twist.  As most already know, it’s safe to assume Santana will not finish in the top 3 in Cy Young voting this year and therefore will not be gaining his no-trade clause for 2008.  However, he still gets to choose up to 12 teams to which he can’t be traded.  If for some reason he didn’t want to leave the Twins next season, could he strategically choose every team capable of dealing for him? 

Despite not having a no-trade clause, it’s safe to note Santana will have considerable say in any deal.

 

Posted by: Nat Boyle

Joba The Starter?

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It’s been a slow Saturday in the rumor mill so as it grinds down, I thought I’d see where everyone would put Joba Chamberlain next season if you were the Yankees.

Experts and statisticians feel that Joba must be in the rotation because 180 innings of Joba next year is more valuable than around 60.  Frank Neville for The Sporting News thinks "health permitting, [Joba] can be a 20-game winner and rack up 200-plus strikeouts a year."  Now wait, where have we heard that argument before?  Ah yes, with Jonathan Papelbon. 

Papelbon has become the most dominant closer in the majors with a 13.3 k/9 and I wonder if everyone still feels that 180-200 "starter" innings are as valuable to the Sox as his 56.1 "closer" innings have been.  Nobody seems to be suggesting otherwise!  Most if not all projections have Papelbon slated to close in ’08, not start, and they’re probably right.  With the emergence of Clay Buchholz, the Sox have remained mum.  And fans/reporters don’t seem to bring it up as if Papelbon might overhear and remember that he actually once wanted to start.   Well that story has come full circle and Paps wants to close now.  Chamberlain, meanwhile, seems to be running the same hamster wheel with one major difference:  the Yankees actually have a closer.

It’s an interesting conundrum.  In a way, Mariano Rivera is the reason to put him in the rotation while on the other hand Mariano Rivera is the reason to continue his development in relief.  The presence of Rivera provides reasoning to both keep him in the bullpen to be his successor or move him out because, hey, they already have Rivera.  There’s an obvious divide in thought here.

I’m of the belief that if Todd Jones can close, Rivera is not done.  Therefore Rivera, Luis Vizcaino, and Edwar Ramirez (in due time) plus one or two more effective relievers (and specialists, etc)  would be solid for 2008.  And I think everyone would be impressed by a sudden rotation of Wang, Pettitte, Hughes, Kennedy, and Joba the Starter.

 

Posted by: Nat Boyle

Yankees Focused On Gagne, Wheeler, Qualls

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It seems highly likely that the Yankees will make a move to upgrade their bullpen before the Tuesday trade deadline.  They appear to have three main targets.

Kat O’Brien of Newsday says the Yanks have had serious discussions with Texas regarding Eric Gagne.  Though Gagne wants to close, remember that he can be traded to New York without his consent.  A Rivera-Gagne combo would essentially turn every game into seven innings.  O’Brien names righthanders Ian Kennedy and Jeff Marquez as two pitchers the Rangers might be after.  Kennedy is definitely more highly regarded.  The Rangers also like Melky Cabrera but the Yankees are resisting.

Meanwhile, Mark Feinsand of the New York Daily News tells us that the Yankees have "narrowed their sights" to Dan Wheeler and Chad Qualls of the Astros.  The Astros control Wheeler through 2009 and Qualls through 2010, so the asking price will be significant.  Jayson Stark says Houston is looking for a young MLB-ready position player; Cabrera seems to fit the bill.

Another Yankee-related note from O’Brien’s article – the Yankees are not pursuing Ty Wigginton anymore.  Other writers do not agree.  Dan Graziano indicates that Wiggy is still in play and the Yankees might try get Al Reyes added to the deal as well.  Peter Abraham talked to an AL exec who expects the Yanks to get Wigginton.  Graziano adds that the Yankees have had recent discussions about Octavio Dotel and Jon Rauch.

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