Ichiro Suzuki

David Samson’s face just got slightly less red – the Mariners signed Ichiro for $90MM and not $100MM as was reported earlier.

While Ichiro as a $20MM player was defensible if you contorted the numbers enough, $18MM is just easier to stomach.

UPDATE: Never mind – it’ll end up pretty close to $100 mil when it’s all said and done.

UPDATE: Larry Stone is saying the five-year pact could approach $100MM.  David Cameron agrees.  And Ken Rosenthal has adjusted his figure from $75-90MM to $90-100MM.  An agreement appears imminent.  Looks like the Ms are paying full sticker price for Ichiro, though it’s not a bad deal.  Torii Hunter may be positioned as the best available center fielder this winter. 

Larry Stone of the Seattle Times describes how drastically the atmosphere has changed in Seattle over the last year, especially from Ichiro’s point of view.  Gone are the negative tree metaphors; the vibe is positive under John McLaren.  Winning doesn’t hurt either.

Stone speculates that a contract extension could happen soon for Ichiro.  He may not be a home run hitter, and he may not draw walks.  But all the hits have led to a strong .379 career OBP.  And he’s hit enough triples and doubles to bring his career SLG to .439 despite averaging about ten home runs per year.  Throw in premium center field defense and international appeal, and a four-year, $72MM extension sounds fair.

Today’s surprising resignation by Mariners manager Mike Hargrove could have a major effect on our world.  That is, the trade and signing world of MLBTR.

Ken Rosenthal has a new video up at FOXSports discussing the Hargrove resignation.  Rosenthal mentions the well-known fact that Ichiro did not have a great relationship with Hargrove.  He speculates that the resignation could affect Ichiro’s decision on whether to stay in Seattle after this season.

Rosenthal adds that Ichiro likes new Mariners manager John McLaren.  The bigger factor, though, has likely always been Ichiro’s desire to play for a winning team.  The Mariners, at a surprising 45-33, are just one game out of the Wild Card (trailing the Tigers).  It’s starting to look like there’s a good chance the Mariners retain Ichiro.  Which player would be shifted to right field, Ichiro or superprospect Adam Jones?   

By the way, if the season ended today, the playoff matchups would be as follows:

AL:
Tigers vs. Angels
Indians vs. Red Sox

NL:
Brewers vs. Dodgers
Mets vs. Padres

Jon Saraceno of USA Today was granted an extensive interview with the Mariners’ Ichiro Suzuki, through an interpreter.  While Ichiro doesn’t say anything groundbreaking regarding his future after the 2007 season, a few quotes have negative connotations for Seattle.  For example:

The Mariners say they want to extend his deal and have him retire in a Seattle uniform. Asked if he prefers to stay, Ichiro demurs: "It’s a very touchy subject right now, so I’d prefer not to answer."

It doesn’t sound like Ichiro is going to grant the Mariners a discount, either:

"How much a team would offer a player is an expression of how much the team cares — respects — him," Ichiro says. "It’s very important. How important? Hard to say."

He did have one particularly odd thing to say about his future, though.  Ichiro wants to become a pitcher when he’s 40 and is "kind of serious about it."  Still seems like a joke, but it would just be cool to see him switch to the mound.  Or play center field most of the time and pitch on occasion.  We need more guys like that, and to see a superstar do it would be incredible.  The article says Ichiro might play until he’s 45.

Back in February, Ichiro’s agent publicly discussed the possibility that trading him might make the most sense this summer.  Feel free to speculate wildly on that one.

According to a source of Ken Davidoff of Newsday, Ichiro Suzuki will explore free agency this winter.  He will be "selective," which seems to rule out lousy non-Mariner clubs.  The source said that Ichiro would’ve signed with the Ms last winter had they made a solid offer.  They’ve yet to do so.

As Davidoff mentions, Ichiro is one of the Big Three center fielders who may be available after the season.  The other two are Torii Hunter and Andruw Jones.  How do they compare?

Their ages for the 2008 season: Jones will be 31, Hunter 32, and Ichiro 34.  Looking at offense, any team would clearly prefer Jones.  He should remain a force into the forseeable future, posting .350 OBPs and .500+ SLGs.  While more reliant on batting average than walks, Ichiro can match that OBP.  Of course, he won’t slug much over .400.  Hunter brings a lower OBP but more power than Ichiro, and probably has an edge offensively.

Most fielding experts would place Jones well above Hunter in terms of defense, but it’s unclear where to rank Ichiro at this point.  I’m sure any team considering a long-term offer to Ichiro is scouting his center field defense carefully and applying advanced grading systems.

Ichiro has the biggest fan appeal, though Jones may be a draw in his own right.  In terms of simply the most desirable player over the next four or five seasons, I rank them Jones, Hunter, and Ichiro.  I know power isn’t Ichiro’s game and all that, but he still needs to be compared to Jones and Hunter in that regard.  We haven’t seen many signs of it, but it’s possible Hunter adds some more walks to his game as he ages.  We’ve seen that with Jones.

The second tier contains Mike Cameron, Corey Patterson, and Eric Byrnes.  Cameron is the best of those despite being the oldest.  However, he may be off the market within a couple of weeks.  Click here to take a look at the rest of the free agent CFs.   

John Hickey of the Seattle Post-Intelligencer reports today that Ichiro Suzuki believes it is possible he will become a free agent for the first time after this season.  Ichiro is unsure of his feelings on that idea, and Hickey points out that this is not him saying he wants out.

Ichiro’s agent, Tony Attanasio, brings up the midseason trade possibility:

"If it appears to them that they can’t sign Ichiro, they might have to trade him. If they didn’t, they’d risk just getting a draft choice for him."

However, the two sides have had preliminary discussions about an extension.  The issue may not be money, though – Ichiro said recently that if the Mariners offered him a billion-dollar contract, he’d have to think about it.  That’s why the Ichiro-to-Boston type rumors will be in full force this summer.  The White Sox and Cardinals could be other possibilities.  And if he’s willing to switch back to right field, even more possibilities will emerge.  The Yankees will have an opening there if they decline Bobby Abreu’s $16MM option for ’08.