The A’s added back-end starter Aaron Civale on a $6MM free agent contract this week. He slots behind Luis Severino and Jeffrey Springs as experienced arms in an otherwise young rotation. Manager Mark Kotsay suggested on Wednesday that while the three veterans were locked into starting spots, camp battles could decide the final two roles. “It’s definitely an open competition,” the fourth-year skipper told Martín Gallegos of MLB.com. “I think we do have some depth this year that we haven’t had in the past.”
Of the A’s returning starters, only Springs and Severino got to 100 MLB innings last season. Jacob Lopez led the way with 92 2/3 frames across 21 appearances (17 starts). He was followed in MLB workload by J.T. Ginn, Luis Morales, Gunnar Hoglund, Mason Barnett and Jack Perkins. Morales and Lopez had the most success and enter camp as the presumptive favorites.
The 23-year-old Morales turned in a 3.14 earned run average over his first 48 2/3 MLB frames. His 21.6% strikeout percentage and 9% walk rate weren’t as impressive, and his fly-ball profile led to some home run trouble. The underlying numbers would suggest he’s a regression candidate, but he could certainly offset that by missing more bats in his first full season. Morales has a 97 mph average fastball and a potential plus breaking ball.
Lopez is a soft-tossing lefty who turns 28 during Spring Training. That points to a lower ceiling than Morales possesses, but he arguably showed more in his rookie season. Lopez punched out 28.3% of opponents behind an above-average 11.8% swinging strike rate. He finished the year with a 4.08 ERA that is skewed by a nine-run drubbing that he took in Seattle just before he went on the injured list with a season-ending flexor strain. He carried a 3.28 earned run average into that appearance.
It was a relatively small sample and it’s easy to see potential downside. Lopez is an extreme fly-ball pitcher who’ll spend the next two seasons in the most hitter-friendly home park outside Colorado. A 90-91 mph average fastball doesn’t give him much margin for error. Home runs are likely to be an issue, but Lopez has always missed more bats than his velocity might suggest thanks to a quality slider and plus command. Gallegos writes that Lopez is slightly behind schedule because of the late-season forearm issue but should have time to log a full Spring Training workload.
Ginn probably has the best chance to push one of Morales or Lopez for a season-opening rotation spot. He fanned a quarter of opponents against an 8% walk rate while getting ground-balls more than half the time. A lot of the fly balls that he did give up cleared the fences. Sutter Health Park did Ginn no favors, as 12 of his 17 home runs allowed came at home. He had a near-7.00 ERA in Sacramento compared to a 3.14 ERA on the road. The cumulative result was a 5.08 mark across 90 1/3 innings.
Barnett was called up late in the season. He was hit hard over five starts, posting a near-7.00 ERA through 22 1/3 innings. He has shown intriguing stuff, headlined by a mid-90s fastball and quality slider, but the command has been inconsistent throughout his minor league career. Hoglund is a former first-round pick whose prospect stock had tumbled after Tommy John surgery. He seemed to put himself back on the map with a strong six-start run in Triple-A, but major league opponents teed off over his first six career outings. He underwent season-ending hip surgery in June.
Perkins started four of 12 appearances after being called up in June. He suffered a season-ending shoulder strain in August. He sat around 96 mph on the fastball and got excellent results on a mid-80s breaking ball. Perkins’ minor league numbers suggest he might be better suited in the bullpen, however. He walked 11.3% of Triple-A opponents and has posted double digit walk rates in three straight seasons.
Luis Medina and Joey Estes have some MLB experience and hold 40-man roster spots. Medina is out of options and missed all of last season rehabbing Tommy John surgery. He’s probably ticketed for long relief to open the season, while Estes could be on the fringe of the 40-man roster. Medina is the only member of this group aside from the three veterans who cannot be optioned.
The highest-upside arms in the organization are still in the minor leagues. Gage Jump and Jamie Arnold are two of the top pitching prospects in the sport. Jump has an outside chance to break camp after posting a 3.64 ERA while striking out a quarter of opponents over 20 Double-A appearances. He’s not on the 40-man roster, but each of Braden Nett, Henry Baez and Chen Zhong-Ao Zhuang are. They’re solid prospects (Nett and Baez, in particular) who have Double-A experience and could get some consideration to break camp if they really impress during Spring Training.
