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Luis Medina

Sorting Through The Athletics’ Rotation Options

By Steve Adams | January 23, 2023 at 3:32pm CDT

The A’s formally announced newly signed right-hander Shintaro Fujinami at a press conference last week, where general manager David Forst confirmed that Fujinami is indeed viewed as a starting pitcher. That’s the role he’s held in Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball for the bulk of his career, so perhaps it’s not a surprise, but Fujinami is a hard-throwing righty with command issues, so there was a case to be made for putting him in the ’pen.

Beyond that, the simple fact is that even prior to signing Fujinami, the A’s had more rotation candidates than rotation spots. That’s not an especially common spot for a rebuilding club to find itself, but Oakland has zeroed in on bulk pitching acquisition over the course of its fire sale/teardown. The front office didn’t target exclusively pitchers, but the A’s nonetheless have as many as seven rotation candidates who’ve been acquired via trade within the past calendar year on the 40-man roster.

No team is going to rely on five starters to get through a season, and even getting through a year with “only” seven or eight starters is a luxury to which most teams cannot lay claim in the modern baseball landscape. That said, the A’s stand out as a team that might lean on 15 or more starting pitchers to get through the season, given the lack of established talent, the glut of nearly MLB-ready arms on the roster and the potential for an in-season trade involving just about any likely member of the rotation.

Let’s take a look at what the starting staff might look like…

The Locks

Cole Irvin, LHP: Not many trades that end up sending cash back to a player’s former team work out better than the acquisition of Irvin has for the A’s. It’s been nearly two years to the day since Oakland picked him up from the Phillies in exchange for cash, and he’s made 62 starts of 4.11 ERA ball with a well below-average 16.8% strikeout rate but a superb 5.2% walk rate.

With four years of club control remaining, it’d be a surprise if Irvin hasn’t at least generated some cursory trade interest this winter, although his glaring home/road splits might not help his cause much. Dating back to Opening Day 2021, the lefty owns a 3.44 ERA at home, where opponents have batted just .243/.288/.355 against him in nearly 800 plate appearances. In that same timeframe, Irvin’s road ERA is a more alarming 4.88, and opponents have pounced on him for a .285/.330/.491 slash.

Splits notwithstanding, Irvin is a perfectly viable fourth/fifth starter, but a team that plays its home games in a more hitter-friendly environment might be understandably dissuaded from giving up too much young talent to acquire him. That’s fine for the A’s for now, given Irvin’s remaining club control and the simple fact that they’ll need some dependability on the staff. If he’s pitching well come July, he’ll be a feasible trade candidate (particularly with an arbitration raise looming next offseason).

Paul Blackburn, RHP: It’s easy to call Blackburn, who made the 2022 All-Star team but finished the year with a 4.28 ERA, a token All-Star who was only chosen because every team needs a representative. Perhaps there’s some truth to that, too, but as I noted last summer, Blackburn was a plenty deserving selection and a fairly intriguing trade chip at one point. Through July 2, he’d pitched 87 innings of 2.90 ERA ball with three times as many strikeouts as walks (18.8% to 6.2%) and a strong 48.7% grounder rate. His .280 BABIP and 80.7% left-on-base rate pointed to some likely regression, but based on results alone, Blackburn was pretty good.

Things went off the rails almost immediately thereafter, however. Blackburn tried for several weeks to pitch through pain that’d arisen in his pitching hand, but he was shelled for 21 runs in a span of 14 1/3 innings. He eventually landed on the injured list due to that pain, and testing revealed that he’d torn the tendon sheath in his right middle finger. He was placed in a splint for up to eight weeks, and his season was over.

Time will tell whether Blackburn can replicate his production from the first three months of the 2022 season, but as long as he’s healthy, he’ll be given every opportunity to prove it was sustainable. Blackburn only has three seasons of club control remaining, so if he’s healthy and pitching well this summer, expect to hear his name pop up in rumors.

Newcomers Who’ll Be Given a Chance

Shintaro Fujinami, RHP: The former high school rival of Shohei Ohtani, Fujinami was once lauded as a prospect nearly as much as the current Angels phenom. Fujinami, 28, stepped right from his high school rotation into the rotation of Japan’s Hanshin Tigers, posting a 2.75 ERA in 137 2/3 innings as a rookie in Nippon Professional Baseball. He was a multi-time All-Star and budding phenom in his first four years in Japan, pitching to a sub-3.00 ERA each season. His career has come off the rails since that time, though, and Fujinami comes to Oakland as a hard-throwing but command-challenged project. At 6’6″, he’s armed with a fastball that can reach triple digits and a splitter and slider that have both, at times, made hitters look silly. He’s also been shuttled between the Tigers’ top team and minor league team in NPB for several seasons while displaying troubling walk rates and looking like a shell of the potential star he was early in his pro career.

Drew Rucinski, RHP: In the past five years, the now-34-year-old Rucinski went from nondescript, replacement-level MLB pitcher to a powerhouse workhorse for the KBO’s NC Dinos. Rucinski started 121 games dating back to 2019 and has posted an ERA between 3.17 and 2.93 each season. Along the way, he’s whiffed 21.5% of opposing batters, walked just 6.3% of them and posted a superhuman 66% ground-ball rate. The A’s signed Rucinski for a year and $3MM, with a 2024 club option valued at $5MM. If he can carry over any of that KBO form to the Coliseum, he’ll be a durable source of innings and a nice summer trade chip.

The Out-of-Options Arm Who’ll Make the Staff in Some Capacity

James Kaprielian, RHP: A former first-round pick of the Yankees who was sent to Oakland as part of the Sonny Gray trade, Kaprielian has been injured more often than he’s been healthy. He looked to be turning a corner over the past two seasons, logging a combined 4.16 ERA in 253 1/3 innings over the life of 50 games (47 of them starts). However, Kaprielian had shoulder surgery this offseason, and it’s not clear whether he’ll be ready to go for Opening Day. Manager Mark Kotsay said at the time of Kaprielian’s surgery that the organization expected him to be ready, but Shayna Rubin of the San Jose Mercury News recently suggested that the soon-to-be 29-year-old might miss time early in the year. (If that’s indeed the case, he’ll land on the IL alongside rotation hopeful Daulton Jefferies, who’ll miss all of 2023 after undergoing both thoracic outlet surgery and Tommy John surgery.) Kaprielian is out of minor league options, so whenever he’s healthy, he’ll be on the roster either as a starter or perhaps a multi-inning reliever — it’s a just a matter of when that time will be.

Candidates for the Remaining Rotation Innings

(Note: all players in this section have six-plus seasons of club control remaining)

Adrian Martinez, RHP (two remaining option years): One of two players acquired in the trade that sent Sean Manaea to San Diego, Martinez was roughed up for a 6.24 ERA in 57 2/3 innings in last year’s MLB debut. It’s a rough showing, to be sure, but his 20.5% strikeout rate and 7.3% walk rate both portend better production. Martinez’s 2.03 HR/9 mark was one of the highest in the game, and only four of the 344 pitchers who threw at least 50 innings in 2022 saw a larger percentage of their fly-balls become home runs than Martinez’s 19.7%. That HR/FB rate, in particular, is ripe for positive regression, even before considering the A’s spacious home park. Metrics like xFIP (4.11) and SIERA (4.16), which normalize HR/FB to league-average levels, feel that Martinez was vastly better than his basic earned run average.

Ken Waldichuk, LHP (three option years): A key piece in the trade sending Frankie Montas to the Bronx, Waldichuk held his own in a seven-start debut (4.93 ERA, 33-to-10 K/BB ratio in 34 2/3 innings). His final outing, featuring seven shutout frames against the Angels, was a particularly high note on which to finish. On top of those 34 2/3 MLB frames, Waldichuk logged 95 innings of 2.84 ERA ball between Double-A and Triple-A. He’s arguably the most highly regarded member of this bunch, and he should have multiple opportunities to win a rotation spot over the next 12 to 18 months in Oakland.

Kyle Muller, LHP (one option year): A 2016 second-round pick by the Braves (who traded him to Oakland in the Sean Murphy deal), Muller has at times been ranked among the sport’s 100 best prospects at various outlets, but his stock has dimmed a bit since that time. He’s managed just a 5.14 ERA in 49 MLB innings, but he spent the bulk of his 2022 season pitching to a 3.41 ERA in 134 1/3 Triple-A innings (23 starts). Muller punched out a hefty 29.3% of his opponents. Muller can reach the upper 90s with his heater, draws plus grades on his slider and now that he’s out of a more crowded rotation mix in Atlanta, should have a clear path to innings with the A’s. He’s out of options after the 2023 season, so it’s in Oakland’s best interest to give him a chance sooner than later.

JP Sears, LHP (two option years): Prior to Oakland’s dice rolls on Rucinski and Fujinami, Sears might’ve been a favorite to break camp in the rotation after pitching to a 3.86 ERA in 70 innings as a rookie last year. Acquired in the Montas trade along with Waldichuk, the 5’11” lefty has dominated Triple-A (2.32 ERA in 101 career innings), but a return to that level might be his most straightforward path to starter’s innings early in the season. Sears, who’ll turn 27 in a few weeks, isn’t the prototypical “prospect,” as he doesn’t throw especially hard and has relied more on plus command than overpowering stuff to find success in the minors. It’s a recipe that’s worked well for Oakland pitchers in the past, thanks to the Coliseum’s cavernous dimensions. Even if he doesn’t break camp on the roster, he’ll probably start a fair number of games for the A’s in 2023.

Freddy Tarnok, RHP (two option years): Another piece of Oakland’s return for Murphy, Tarnok has all of 44 2/3 innings above Double-A under his belt (including a tiny two-thirds of an inning MLB debut in 2022). That lack of upper minors experience, coupled with the breadth of options for the Athletics’ rotation, should probably ticket him for Triple-A work to start the season. Several scouting reports on the 6’3″ Tarnok suggest his ultimate home might be in the bullpen, where a fastball that can already reach 98 mph might play up further. He’s never reached 110 innings in a professional season, so in addition to getting some needed reps against Triple-A lineups, he’ll also be looking to build out his workload.

Luis Medina, RHP (one option year): Yet another piece of the Montas return, Medina pitched to a 3.38 ERA in 17 Double-A starts with the Yankees before being blown up for a calamitous 11.76 ERA in seven starts (20 2/3 innings) with the Athletics’ Double-A club. Command has long been an issue for Medina, but he took that concern to new heights with the A’s, walking 22 of the 114 batters he faced following the trade. FanGraphs lauds Medina’s plus breaking ball and elite arm strength, while Baseball America notes that his heater has reached 103 mph in the past. The huge command concerns could lead to a future in the bullpen. Medina isn’t likely to win a starting job early in the season, but the A’s can continue trying to refine his ability to locate the ball in hopes of hitting the jackpot on a starter with this type of repertoire. If not, a move to the ’pen could put him on a fast track to the Majors.

Adam Oller, RHP (two option years): The A’s picked up Oller as one of two arms in the trade sending Chris Bassitt to the Mets. Nineteen appearances later (14 starts), he has a 6.30 big league ERA under his belt with nearly as many walks (39) as strikeouts (46) in 74 1/3 innings. It wasn’t the start anyone hoped for, but Oller posted a solid 3.69 ERA in seven Triple-A starts. Oller always profiled as a potential back-of-the-rotation starter, and even the A’s massive home park couldn’t curtail the right-hander’s home run issues (2.06 HR/9). A bullpen role where he works multiple innings is feasible, as is a return to Triple-A Las Vegas.

Other Recent Trade Acquisitions

J.T. Ginn, RHP: Ginn missed more than three months of the 2022 season with a forearm injury and was clobbered for a 6.11 ERA in 10 starts of Double-A ball when healthy. He came to the A’s alongside Oller in the Bassitt trade and, as a 2020 second-rounder, was the more highly regarded get for Oakland. He’s not on the 40-man roster yet and is still only 23, so there’s plenty of time for him to right the ship, but he’s not on the immediate rotation radar.

Ryan Cusick, RHP: The Braves’ top pick in 2021, Cusick was traded to Oakland in the Matt Olson swap. Like Ginn, he spent much of the season on the injured list (in his case, due to a rib fracture). Also like Ginn, he was hit hard in Double-A when healthy, yielding a 7.02 ERA in 41 frames. He’s not Rule 5-eligible until after the 2024 season, so there’s no rush.

Joey Estes, RHP: Acquired from the Braves alongside Cusick, Estes handled older competition in High-A reasonably well. His 4.55 ERA wasn’t especially eye-catching, but he whiffed 23.8% of his opponents against a strong 7.8% walk rate in 91 innings. Home runs were an issue, but that’s two straight years of nice K-BB numbers against older competition for Estes.

Gunnar Hoglund, RHP: Hoglund would’ve been a top-10 pick in 2021 had he not required Tommy John surgery during his junior year of college, but the Blue Jays still liked him enough to take him at No. 19 and the A’s still liked him enough to make him the headliner in the Matt Chapman deal. Hoglund only pitched eight innings late in the 2022 season as he worked back from that ligament replacement procedure, so he’s nowhere close to the big leagues. His development will be worth keeping an eye on, though. Lefty Zach Logue, acquired alongside Hoglund, has already been designated for assignment, claimed by the Tigers and then passed through waivers in Detroit. He surrendered a 6.79 ERA through 57 innings as a rookie last year and actually posted an even grislier 8.12 ERA in 78 2/3 Triple-A frames.

—

Amazingly, even after all of their recent trades of star-caliber players, the organization’s lone entrant on Baseball America’s Top 100 list is catcher Tyler Soderstrom — who, unlike every single one of the names mentioned prior, was drafted by the A’s. Part of that is borne out of the Athletics’ penchant for prioritizing near-MLB players in trades (as opposed to further off, more highly touted prospects), but it’s still rather surprising to see.

Nevertheless, while the A’s aren’t going to win many games in 2023, they’re brimming with young arms who could eventually hold down spots in the rotation. Attrition rate among young pitchers is enormous, and many of these names will be lost to injury, shift to the bullpen, or pitch themselves off the roster entirely. For now, it’ll be fascinating to see how many of Oakland’s young arms can solidify themselves in the big leagues, because their ability to do so (or lack thereof) will be a driving factor in the latest rebuild phase.

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MLBTR Originals Oakland Athletics Adam Oller Adrian Martinez Cole Irvin Drew Rucinski Freddy Tarnok Gunnar Hoglund J.P. Sears J.T. Ginn James Kaprielian Joey Estes Ken Waldichuk Kyle Muller Luis Medina Paul Blackburn Ryan Cusick Shintaro Fujinami

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Yankees Acquire Frankie Montas, Lou Trivino

By Darragh McDonald | August 1, 2022 at 4:55pm CDT

The Yankees have announced that they have acquired Frankie Montas and Lou Trivino from the Athletics. In exchange, the Athletics will receive pitchers JP Sears, Ken Waldichuk and Luis Medina, as well as second baseman Cooper Bowman.

Next to Luis Castillo and Tyler Mahle, Montas has been seen as one of the better starting pitchers available at the trade deadline. The Yankees had been connected to Castillo, but he was traded to the Mariners in recent days. The Yanks evidently turned their attentions to Montas in order to satisfy their desire for boosting their rotation.

Montas has been a solid member of Oakland’s rotation for years, first establishing himself in 2018. Despite a down year in 2020, Montas still owns a career 3.73 ERA with a 24.8% strikeout rate, 7.8% walk rate and 43.5% ground ball rate. Just looking at what he’s done since the start of the 2021 season, he’s been on an even better level, logging a 3.30 ERA, 26.3% strikeout rate, 7.1% walk rate and 44% grounder rate. He’s been worth 6.1 wins above replacement in that time, according to FanGraphs.

Despite being a solid performer, Montas has seemed like an inevitable trade candidate for quite some time now. As the 2021 season finished and the offseason began, the A’s were widely reported to be planning a massive sell-off of any player making a significant salary and/or approaching free agency. Montas was frequently cited among the trade candidates, next to Chris Bassitt, Sean Manaea, Matt Olson and Matt Chapman. Those four latter names were all moved between this winter’s lockout and the beginning of the season, but Montas stayed. He’s making just over $5MM this season, making him the cheapest of that group, but he only has one further season of club control remaining. Given that the A’s aren’t likely to return to competition in that time, it made sense to make him available to other clubs.

The Yankees have been incredibly healthy in terms of their rotation this year, with their front five of Gerrit Cole, Jameson Taillon, Nestor Cortes, Jordan Montgomery and Luis Severino all staying healthy for the first three-plus months of the season. As such, the rotation as a whole has logged 567 innings, the third-most in the majors, while also posting a 3.37 ERA that’s third in the league. However, Severino landed on the IL a couple of weeks ago with shoulder tightness. While he’s been out, Domingo German has made two starts but has an 8.22 ERA in those. When Montas reports to the team, he will likely bump German back to the minors or a long-relief role. If Severino can get back on the mound while everyone else is still healthy, the Yanks might have to make a tough decision about to fit everyone into the mix, but that would be a good problem to have in the future.

The Yankees weren’t content to merely upgrade their rotation, however, also adding Trivino into the bullpen, their second such addition of the day, following their earlier acquisition of Scott Effross. Yankee fans might see Trivino’s 6.47 ERA and scoff, but there’s actually more to like under the hood. Trivino’s been the victim of a .451 batting average on balls in play, despite that number being around .250 in the two previous seasons. His 28.7% strikeout rate and 52.3% ground ball rates on the year are both career highs while his 8.9% walk rate is a career low. As such, all of the advanced metrics feel that batted ball luck is masking his true talents, with Trivino currently sporting a 4.29 xERA, 3.84 FIP, 2.92 xFIP and 2.89 SIERA. He’s making a modest $3MM salary this year and can be retained via arbitration for another two seasons.

The Yankees’ bullpen seemed unstoppable for much of the season but has since hit some snags. Chad Green required Tommy John surgery and won’t be back this year. Michael King is also done for the year after suffering an elbow fracture. The once-untouchable Aroldis Chapman has struggled since coming off the IL. Clay Holmes, who seemed to replace Chapman as the unhittable monster in the bullpen, has also come back down to earth in recent weeks. With the additions of Effross and Trivino, the Yankees have given themselves some extra options for late-game duty.

The A’s have already completely remade their system this year with the aforementioned trades of Bassitt, Manaea, Olson and Chapman, and this deal will allow them to bring in four more fresh faces. The highlight of the bunch is probably Waldichuk, 24, who is enjoying a tremendous breakout season. Selected by the Yankees in the fifth round in 2019, he has split his time this year between Double-A and Triple-A. In 17 starts between the two levels, he’s thrown 76 1/3 innings with a 2.71 ERA and incredible 36.5% strikeout rate. The 10.4% walk rate is a little above-average, but there’s still plenty to be excited about in that performance. The southpaw was recently ranked the #5 prospect in the Yankees’ system by Baseball America.

Sears, 26, came in 20th on that same list at BA. He made his MLB debut this year and has looked good so far, notching a 2.05 ERA in his first 22 big league innings. He’s only gotten strikeouts at an 18.1% clip in that time, but is much better at getting punchouts in the minors. In 43 Triple-A innings this year, he has a 1.67 ERA with a 33.7% strikeout rate, along with a 4.3% walk rate.

Medina, 23, has also been considered one of the top Yankee prospects by BA, oscillating between the #7 and #11 spot from 2018 to the present. He’s made 17 starts in Double-A this year, throwing 72 innings with a 3.38 ERA, 50.9% ground ball rate, 26.4% strikeout rate, but a high 13% walk rate.

As for Bowman, he’s the most long-term play among the new Athletics, as he’s just 22 years old and was just drafted last year, being selected in the fourth round. He’s played 80 games in High-A this year, putting up a line of .217/.343/.355 while playing second base and shortstop.

While the A’s are ramping up for the future, the Yankees are loading up for right now. Their 69-34 record is the best in the American League and only percentage points behind the Dodgers for best in the majors. In recent days, they’ve bolstered their lineup by adding Andrew Benintendi, added Montas to their rotation and Effross and Trivino to their bullpen. Though there’s still about 24 hours until the trade deadline for them to make further moves, they’ve clearly cemented themselves as one of the strongest teams this year.

With Castillo and Montas now both off the market, teams looking for rotation upgrades will likely turn their attentions to Tyler Mahle. Teams like the Cardinals, Twins, Padres and Blue Jays have been connected to Montas in recent days, with those clubs now likely to pivot to Mahle or other arms.

Jack Curry of the YES Network reported the particulars of the deal before the official announcement (Twitter links).

Images courtesy of USA Today Sports.

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New York Yankees Newsstand Oakland Athletics Transactions Cooper Bowman Frankie Montas J.P. Sears Ken Waldichuk Lou Trivino Luis Medina

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Yankees Release Jacoby Ellsbury, Designate Greg Bird

By Connor Byrne | November 20, 2019 at 7:21pm CDT

The Yankees have released outfielder Jacoby Ellsbury and designated first baseman Greg Bird for assignment as part of a series of roster moves. The club has also designated left-hander Nestor Cortes Jr. and added seven players – outfielder Estevan Florial and right-handers Deivi Garcia, Luis Gil, Brooks Kriske, Luis Medina, Nick Nelson and Miguel Yajure – to its 40-man roster. Ken Davidoff and George A. King III of the New York Post first reported the Yankees were considering releasing Ellsbury.

This brings to an end a hugely disappointing New York tenure for Ellsbury, a former star with archrival Boston who parlayed his success with the Red Sox into a seven-year, $153MM deal with the Yankees after 2013. Ellsbury was merely a decent to good contributor for the Yankees from 2014-17, and a series of injuries prevented him from taking the field at all over the previous two seasons.

The Yankees currently have a need in center field with Aaron Hicks on the mend from Tommy John surgery and Brett Gardner a free agent, so the fact that they’ve moved on from Ellsbury and eaten the remaining $26MM-plus on his contract speaks to how far his stock has fallen. Now, if the 36-year-old is going to continue his career, he’ll likely have to settle for a minor league pact with another organization.

Injuries have also been ruinous for the 27-year-old Bird, whom the Yankees once regarded as their first baseman of the future. Bird was tremendous during a 178-plate appearance debut in 2015, when the left-hander’s swing looked tailor-made for Yankee Stadium, but that’s the only regular-season excellence he has shown to this point. Bird missed all of 2016 after undergoing shoulder surgery and then hit a meager .194/.287/.388 in 522 trips to the plate from 2017-19. Thanks in part to foot problems, he totaled just 41 PA at the MLB level this season. At this point, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see another team trade for or claim Bird, who still has three minor league options left.

Cortes, 24, is also in the DFA pile with Bird. The southpaw, a two-time member of the Yankees organization and also a former Oriole, saw extensive MLB action with New York in 2019. While Cortes limped to a 5.67 ERA/5.57 FIP in that 66 2/3-inning span, he did amass 9.32 strikeouts per nine against 3.78 walks. Cortes also had a solid year at the Triple-A level, where he posted a 3.86 ERA/3.40 FIP with 9.53 K/9 and 2.5 BB/9 over 39 2/3 frames. He has a pair of minor league options remaining.

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New York Yankees Newsstand Transactions Brooks Kriske Deivi Garcia Greg Bird Jacoby Ellsbury Luis Gil Luis Medina Miguel Yajure Nestor Cortes Nick Nelson

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