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Why Are So Many Pitchers Still Unsigned?

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We are nearing Memorial Day, and many pitchers whose resumes would normally have landed them at least a minor-league deal by now remain unsigned.

  • Pedro Martinez is still homeless. While the complication may be in part due to Pedro's salary demands, it is surprising that nobody has signed him. Yes, his ERA was an unsightly 5.61 in 2008, but his 2007 stint was far better-2.57 ERA in 28 innings. His 87 strikeouts against 44 walks in 109 innings also suggests a pitcher who can help a team on the back end of a rotation. Given that it is Pedro Martinez, there is upside well beyond that, of course.
  • Odalis Perez remains strangely unsigned after his even stranger signing that wasn't with Washington this spring. Perez turns 32 on June 7, and had a perfectly average 2008, with a 4.34 ERA in 159 2/3 innings. Obviously, those numbers could help any number of teams.
  • Paul Byrd did what he always does in 2008-posted an ERA in the mid 4s (4.60 to be exact), struck out around four per nine innings, and kept his team in the game. Yet Byrd has yet to sign with anyone, either.

The lack of movement on these pitchers can't be due to overwhelming performances by all the starters currently employed. After all, there's Jamie Moyer and his 8.15 ERA, Carlos Silva and his 8.48 ERA, Oliver Perez and his 9.97 ERA… plenty of others at sixes and sevens, from Scott Olsen to Scott Kazmir. (Even as I type this, Moyer is giving up another home run. No, really.)

My suspicion is that teams view Martinez, Perez or Byrd as band-aid solutions. And that would be fine, normally. After all, band-aids have a rich tradition of stopping people from bleeding.

But the trade market for pitchers has the most top targets it's had in years. The Padres are already 10 games out, and Jake Peavy will likely hit the market. If Cincinnati fades, Aaron Harang could be available. If Toronto falls back to earth- and the smart money still has them finishing fourth- Roy Halladay could be someone else's ace by August. And Cleveland's Cliff Lee will be a prominent target as well.

There are even second-tier options that can help teams now and in the future, from Baltimore's Jeremy Guthrie to Seattle's Erik Bedard.  And in the current economic climate, teams that fall out of the race may have even greater incentive to shed salary as soon as possible.

So it may well be that for veteran free agents, the market will only pick up once the trade deadline has come and gone. And with so many targets out there, once the deadline deals are made July 31, there may not be any place for Martinez, Perez or Byrd to land.

Stark’s Latest: Willis, Peavy, Astros, O’s

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A summary of Jayson Stark's latest "Rumblings and Grumblings" column…

  • Why did the Tigers bother giving Dontrelle Willis another shot?  Frustration, perhaps. "It was pretty obvious, wasn't it?" said one longtime front-office man.  "They invested $29 million in the guy.  They had $22 million left… They'd already eaten Gary Sheffield's money."
  • As for a possible Jake Peavy-to-the-Cubs deal, Stark writes "The Cubs' ownership limbo now looks as if it might stretch until Christmas Eve.  So who knows whether Cubs GM Jim Hendry will even be released from captivity in time to pursue another Peavy deal come July."
  • The chances of Roy Oswalt, along with a few other of Houston's high profile stars being placed on the trade market this summer?  "Based on the history?" an executive of one club said, laughing.  "I'd say zero." 
  • The Orioles should have relievers available come July.  Scouts are drooling over Danys Baez, who seems to have regained his form this year with a 2.37 ERA and 0.84 WHIP. Closer George Sherrill could also draw plenty of interest.  

Odds And Ends: Hinch, Manny, Longoria

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Links for Friday…

Jeff Moorad Chat At MLB.com

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New Padres CEO Jeff Moorad did an online chat with fans for MLB.com today.  A few highlights:

  • When asked about the idea of signing Adrian Gonzalez to an extension in 2010, Moorad replied, "Why wait until 2010?"
  • Moorad reiterated that he is willing to keep Jake Peavy, but tossed in the caveat that "no one player is untouchable."
  • In reference to the July 31st trade deadline, Moorad would be "open to adding an appropriate player or two" if the team is within striking range.

At this writing, the Padres are 11-10, three games behind the Dodgers in the NL West.  They rank 10th in the NL at 4.33 runs scored per game and 13th with a 4.77 ERA.  Bright spots: Gonzalez, David Eckstein, Nick Hundley, Scott Hairston, and Heath Bell. 

The biggest needs appear to be a shortstop and starting pitching.  Just for fun: what do you think about a midseason run at Miguel Tejada?  What pitcher would you like to see Kevin Towers target?

Cafardo’s Latest: Peavy, Mulder

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Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe has a couple notes in his Sunday column:

  • Should he be dealt this season, the Red Sox appeal to Jake Peavy, who hit it off with Kevin Youkilis and Dustin Pedroia in the World Baseball Classic. Padres GM Kevin Towers is hopeful his clubs success will continue and trading Peavy won't have to come up. Only twelve games into the season and the Pads are tied with the Dodgers at 9-3.
  • The Nationals, A's, and Dodgers are all interested in Mark Mulder who believes he "could be ready two weeks after signing."

Heyman On Eckstein, Peavy, Pedro

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SI.com's Jon Heyman has a new column up…

  • The Mets apparently had interest last winter in signing David Eckstein as a backup for $1-2MM, but he preferred to take $850K to start at second base for the Padres.
  • Heyman looks at the Jake Peavy situation.  He learned that new CEO Jeff Moorad "didn't believe the economic downturn and slumping late-winter market would inhibit suitors for Peavy, who has $63 million and four years left on his contract."  That said, we know Moorad is willing to keep Peavy this year.  And Peavy may be happiest in San Diego, according to Heyman.
  • Pedro Martinez has fielded calls from several teams since the season began.  Heyman speculates on the Dodgers, Indians, Phillies, Brewers, Pirates, D'Backs, and Mets as possibilities.  And what about the Cardinals, who just lost Chris Carpenter for a while?

Padres Have Payroll Flexibility

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How about those first-place Padres?  At 6-2, San Diego sits atop the NL West.  Of course, 95% of the season remains.  What if the Padres can somehow remain in contention this summer?  Tom Krasovic of the San Diego Union-Tribune talked to new CEO Jeff Moorad about it:

Whether the Padres can contend for a playoff berth remains to be seen. If they do, the club has the financial flexibility, Moorad said, to increase its payroll should General Manager Kevin Towers find a suitable player.  The CEO added that the club also is comfortable with paying the $11 million salary due this year to ace Jake Peavy, who, according to people close to him, expects the Padres to try to trade him if the team falls out of contention. Peavy's salary is to rise to $15 million in 2010, the first year of the three-year, $52 million extension brokered in December 2007.

It's a shame that the Padres didn't bring in any big names during the offseason, as 2009 represents a nice window of opportunity.  Keeping the positive vibe going, you may recall that the CHONE projection system predicted 80 wins for the Padres this year.  The team is already two wins ahead of that pace.

Odds & Ends: Swisher, La Russa, Twins

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Happy Easter to those celebrating.  Here are your Sunday links…

  • Dejan Kovacevic of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette addresses the ever-popular question, "What if the Pirates had drafted Matt Wieters" in 2007?
  • Sam Mellinger of the Kansas City Star did some number crunching and determined that forking over major cash for a free agent pitcher is often far too risky.  30 pitchers regressed after inking new deals, while only 13 improved.  
  • The Chicago Tribune's Paul Sullivan believes the Brewers might make a run at Jake Peavy later this season.    
  • Cardinals manager Tony La Russa has abandoned the idea of hitting his pitcher eighth for the last three games, and his club is suddenly on a winning streak. "Hitting the guy ninth we've got a winning record," said La Russa.  "I don't want to mess around with it." (Quote courtesy of Rick Hummel with the St. Louis Post-Dispatch). 
  • Tyler Kepner of the New York Times examines the "evolution" of the trade that brought Nick Swisher to the Yankees.  As Kepner notes, it "looks like a steal" at this point. 
  • The Twins are considering a uniform design change for the opening of Target Field in 2010.  Joe Christensen of the Minneapolis Star-Tribune wants your suggestions.  
  • You're obviously a baseball buff if you're checking MLBTR daily, so let me direct you to a brand new site chock-full of streaming baseball-related content.  It's NBCSports.com's newest darling, "Circling The Bases," featuring the writing styles of Aaron Gleeman, Matthew Pouliot and Craig Calcaterra.  

Stark On Olsen, Willingham, Millwood, Peavy

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ESPN's Jayson Stark has a new column up.

  • Stark looks at a few trades that didn't happen.  Aside from the Angels' run at Aaron Harang at the end of Spring Training, they also talked to the Nationals about Scott Olsen.  Stark says Dustin Moseley, Shane Loux, and Jason Bulger were three names kicked around in the Olsen talks.
  • Earlier this spring, the Rays inquired on Washington's Josh Willingham,  apparently dangling Jason Hammel.  Willingham is currently unhappy about being on the Nationals' bench, a situation that probably would not have improved in Tampa Bay.
  • Kevin Millwood could be attractive midseason trade bait, if his Opening Day start was any indication.  Millwood's contract allows the club to decline his $12MM 2010 option unless he pitches 180 innings this year.  He also has a limited no-trade clause.
  • Stark talked to an executive of a team that has Jake Peavy on its radar.  This exec noted that teams did not overpay in deals for Rich Harden and Johan Santana, so the Padres may not be able to demand a ridiculous bounty for Peavy.

More Peavy Chatter

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How about a little more Jake Peavy chatter, courtesy of Tom Krasovic of the San Diego Union-Tribune?  Krasovic sums up the situation: Peavy and GM Kevin Towers hope the Padres will contend and trading the ace will not become an issue.  But with Peavy earning nearly 30% of the payroll and the Padres looking questionable, there's a good chance this will come up again near the trade deadline.

Krasovic adds that the Dodgers and Cubs "interest both the Padres and Peavy."  He says "a person close to Peavy said those two remain the most likely choices for a trade."  Peavy still prefers the National League, though I can envision a potential match with the Angels a few months from now.  Here on April 6th, what's your Peavy prediction?

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