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Jared Jones

Jared Jones Makes Pirates’ Roster; Jared Triolo Likely To Be Named Second Baseman

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Top pitching prospect Jared Jones has won a spot on the Pirates’ Opening Day roster, the club announced to its beat writers this morning (X link via Alex Stumpf of MLB.com). He’ll likely slot into the team’s rotation. The Bucs will select the contracts of Jones and of right-handers Hunter Stratton and Ryder Ryan (X thread via Stumpf). Pittsburgh will place catcher Yasmani Grandal and infielder/outfielder Ji Hwan Bae on the 10-day injured list to begin the season. Relievers Colin Holderman and Carmen Mlodzinski will open the season on the 15-day IL.

Also making the roster are out-of-options pitchers Bailey Falter, Josh Fleming and Roansy Contreras, as well as outfielder Edward Olivares and righty Luis Ortiz. The Bucs will not carry non-roster invitees Brent Honeywell Jr. and Billy McKinney on the roster to begin the season. Those aren’t the only key roster decisions Pittsburgh has faced this spring; Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette writes that manager Derek Shelton last night called it a “very safe assumption” that Jared Triolo will be the Pirates’ starting second baseman to begin the season.

Jones, 22, was the Pirates’ second-round pick back in 2020 and entered spring training ranked among the game’s top 100 prospects at each of Baseball America (No. 74), MLB.com (No. 62), The Athletic (No. 39), FanGraphs (No. 62) and ESPN (No. 53).

Those rankings come on the heels of a strong 2023 season split between Double-A Altoona and Triple-A Indianapolis, wherein Jones logged a combined 126 1/3 innings of 3.85 ERA ball with a 27.6% strikeout rate and 9.5% walk rate. The right-hander’s dominant spring showing surely didn’t hurt his chances of making the Opening Day roster; Jones pitched 16 1/3 innings without an earned run during Grapefruit League play, yielding just nine hits against eight walks with 15 punchouts.

The Athletic’s Keith Law writes that Jones has made huge gains with both his heater and his slider since being drafted and now has the potential for three plus pitches. The former two-way standout is an excellent athlete and, as noted by Eric Longenhagen and Tess Taruskin at FanGraphs, has also improved his strike-throwing as he’s shifted his focus solely to pitching. Scouting reports on Jones generally agree that there’d mid-rotation potential, and further improvements to any of his command, curveball or changeup could further boost his upside.

Jones tossed 122 2/3 innings in 2022 and 126 1/3 innings last season. That should set the stage for a decent uptick in his workload this season. The Bucs might still be cautious with him on a start-by-start basis, particularly early in the year, but it wouldn’t be a surprise if a healthy Jones approached or exceeded 150 frames this year. Since he’s a consensus top-100 prospect who’s making the Opening Day roster, his performance this season will particularly important for the Bucs. If Jones wins Rookie of the Year this season or finishes top three in National League Cy Young voting, he could net the Pirates an extra pick in the 2025 draft under the 2022-26 CBA’s newly implemented prospect promotion incentives.

Triolo, 26, made his big league debut in 2023 and spent the bulk of his time at third base, filling in for an injured Ke’Bryan Hayes. That’s Triolo’s natural position, but Hayes is one of MLB’s best defensive players at any position, so Triolo will slide over to second base in what could be his first full big league season. The writing for him winning the second base job was on the wall after the Bucs optioned Liover Peguero and Nick Gonzales — particularly with Bae also banged up (and now headed to the injured list).

In 209 plate appearances last season, Triolo batted .298/.388/.398 — production that was buoyed by an enormous .440 average on balls in play and came in  spite of a grisly 30.1% strikeout rate. The punchouts and good fortune on balls in play have both continued this spring. Triolo has taken 45 plate appearances and batted .325/.400/.525 — excellent surface-level numbers that are propped up by a more suspect .458 BABIP. Couple that with a 31.1% strikeout rate, and his production looks similar to his 2023 output — though this year’s pair of homers in his limited spring playing time is a good sign, as Triolo hit just three long balls in last year’s 209 trips to the plate.

Triolo is a strong defender who draws plenty of walks, which should help set a decent floor for him, but he’ll need to cut down on the strikeouts and/or significantly improve his quality of contact (86.6 mph average exit velocity; 32.8% hard-hit rate) if he’s to sustain much in the way of success at the plate in the majors. Strikeouts were an issue in his first taste of Triple-A work last year (26.5%) but weren’t a problem for him in the lower and mid-minor league levels, so perhaps he’ll drop that rate over a larger sample as he gains more experience. If nothing else, a plus defender at multiple positions with a keen eye at the plate has the makings of a useful utility option, but Triolo will get the opportunity to show he can be more than that right out of the gate in 2024.

The 27-year-old Stratton made his MLB debut with the Bucs in 2023 and pitched 12 innings with three runs on nine hits and three walks. He fanned 10 of his 47 opponents (21.3%) and kept the ball on the ground at a hearty 51.5% rate. He was non-tendered in November but returned on a minors deal two months later. Stratton will now get a second big league look after firing seven shutout frames with a 7-to-2 K/BB ratio this spring.

Ryan, 29 in May, pitched a scoreless frame with the Mariners in 2023. That represents the entirety of his MLB experience. He’s fanned 28.6% of his opponents in 7 2/3 innings for Pittsburgh this spring and done so with a staggering 73.7% ground-ball rate. Ryan has pitched to a sub-4.00 ERA with a strikeout rate north of 24% in each of the past two Triple-A seasons (one with the Mariners and one with the Rangers). The Pirates will give him his first real look in the majors to see if he can carry any of that success over to the game’s top level.

Pirates’ Trade Talks For Rotation Help Have Slowed

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Throughout the late stages of the offseason, the Pirates have reportedly been exploring the trade market for rotation help, with the Marlins (specifically, right-hander Edward Cabrera) being the team most frequently suggested as a potential trade partner. However, while the Bucs talked with the Fish and surely several other clubs about deals to bolster the rotation, Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette reports that talks have “lost steam” and that GM Ben Cherington now says he’s increasingly focused on the arms in house.

“If there are things we can do to make the team better, we’re gonna stay on that,” Cherington tells Mackey. “No guarantee those things happen. We’re mostly focused on the guys who are here.”

The Pirates have three slam-dunk members of their Opening Day rotation: Mitch Keller, Martin Perez and Marco Gonzales. Keller, who recently signed a five-year contract extension, will get the Opening Day nod. There are still a pair of open rotation jobs, however, and Cherington suggested there are six or seven options vying for those two opportunities.

The names currently competing include a mix of young prospects, rebound candidates coming off a down 2023 showing, and veterans hoping to win a spot. While the Pirates have already informed 2023 No. 1 overall draft pick Paul Skenes that he won’t make the Opening Day roster, fellow top prospect Jared Jones (No. 74 on Baseball America’s top 100 list) is firmly in the mix. Jones may not have the same ceiling as Skenes, but Skenes pitched just 6 2/3 innings last year following the draft. Jones, on the other hand, logged a combined 3.85 ERA, 27.6% strikeout rate and 9.4% walk rate in 126 1/3 frames between Double-A and Triple-A in ’23. He’s pitched 4 2/3 shutout innings in camp.

Jones, 22, was specifically called out by manager Derek Shelton as a candidate for a spot in the Opening Day rotation (X link via Alex Stumpf of MLB.com). He’d need to be added to the 40-man roster, which could potentially work against him. That’s not true of Roansy Contreras, Quinn Priester, Luis Ortiz, Bailey Falter and Kyle Nicolas, each of whom is on the 40-man roster. (Lefty Jackson Wolf is as well, but the Pirates already optioned him to Double-A in their first wave of spring cuts).

Contreras and Falter have the most experience of the bunch. Both are looking to rebound from ugly 2023 showings. Contreras looked like a potential rotation staple as recently as 2022, when he pitched 95 innings of 3.79 ERA ball with passable, if unspectacular, strikeout and walk rates (21.1%, 9.6%). However, he lost more than a mile off his heater in ’23 and took a step back in virtually every rate category of note. He’s still only 24 years old and is just two years removed from being a top-100 prospect himself, so there’s ample time for him to figure things out. He’s out of minor league options, meaning he’ll make the roster one way or another — be it in the rotation or in the bullpen. Pirates fans will want to check out Mackey’s piece in full, as it more fully details some of the gains Contreras has shown thus far in camp.

Falter was acquired at the 2022 trade deadline in a swap sending utilityman Rodolfo Castro to the Phillies. The 26-year-old was never as touted a prospect as Contreras was, but the two followed relatively similar arcs otherwise: brief MLB debut in 2021, solid back-of-the-rotation results in 2022, poor showing in 2023. Falter tossed 84 innings with a 3.86 ERA as the Phillies’ fifth starter in ’22, fanning 21.2% of his opponents against an exceptional 4.9% walk rate. Like Contreras, he saw his strikeout, walk, swinging-strike and home run rates all back up in 2023 as he finished out the season with a 5.36 ERA in 80 2/3 frames. Also like Contreras, he’s out of minor league options and will need to make the roster or else be traded or exposed to waivers.

Priester, Ortiz and Nicolas all have minor league options remaining and have all made their big league debuts (in quite brief fashion, for Nicolas). They all ranked within the organization’s top 15 prospects at Baseball America as recently as 2023. Priester and Ortiz both drew top-100 fanfare prior to their debuts. None of the three has established himself on the roster, however. Priester has the best minor league numbers of the group but has been hit harder than Ortiz in the big leagues. Ortiz throws the hardest but has displayed shakier command than Priester. Nicolas still hasn’t had much success above Double-A, so he seems likely ticketed for Triple-A Indianapolis to begin the year, particularly since he’s already been hit hard in camp.

The Bucs also have a pair of veterans who could compete for a job. Lefty Josh Fleming is on the 40-man roster after signing a split deal late in the winter. He’s out of options and can’t be sent down, but he’s spent the bulk of his MLB career as a swingman with the Rays and could be headed for a similar spot in Pittsburgh. Righty Chase Anderson is in camp on a non-roster deal. The 36-year-old hasn’t posted a sub-5.00 ERA in the big leagues since being traded by the Brewers following the 2019 season but has shown decently in Triple-A while bouncing around the league since then.

Pirates Sign Two Draft Picks

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The Pirates have signed supplemental first-round pick Carmen Mlodzinski and second-round selection Jared Jones, according to Jim Callis of MLB.com (Twitter links). Mlodzinski receives a $2.05MM bonus that comes in a bit shy of his $2.31MM slot value at No. 31, while Jones’ $2.2MM bonus trounces his No. 44 selection’s $1.689MM slot value. Jones’ agreement was initially reported a couple weeks back, but his bonus wasn’t known until today.

Mlodzinski, 21, didn’t post gaudy numbers in his freshman or sophomore year at South Carolina — a broken foot wiped out much of his sophomore campaign —  but he tore through the Cape Cod League last summer. Encouragingly, he continued those gains early in 2020 before the NCAA season was halted. In 54 2/3 innings between the Cape and his early 2020 showing, he posted a combined 2.47 ERA with a 62-to-12 K/BB ratio.

MLB.com rated Mlodzinski as the No. 21 player in this year’s draft, and Baseball America wasn’t far behind at No. 25. He fell within the top 50 players on the lists from FanGraphs’ Eric Longenhagen, ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel and The Athletic’s Keith Law, too. He’s still relatively new to pitching, having played infield until his senior year of high school, Law notes. Mlodzinski sits in the mid-90s with a heavy sinker that induces plenty of grounders, and he reached the upper 90s last summer in the Cape Cod League. Reports on his secondary pitches are more mixed, but he’s seen as a potential mid-rotation arm.

Jones, a high schooler out of California, is a two-way player who’s more highly regarded as a pitcher. Baseball America ranked him 41st in the class and noted that he has an 80-grade arm from the outfield but was a borderline first-round talent as a pitcher. MLB.com writes that his future is “definitely” on the mound, touting a 96-97 mph heater and a slider that looks to be an above-average offering as well. He’d been committed to Texas but will instead turn pro.

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