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Which Arms Could The Pirates *Actually* Trade This Summer?

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This week's report that there's "no chance" the Pirates trade ace Paul Skenes, just one and a half seasons into his six-year window of club control, stood out as fairly obvious for most onlookers. That anyone felt it needed to be said at all was more a reflection on the organization as a whole than Skenes himself.

Pittsburgh has taken a step back this season, sitting on pace to win 56 games after winning 76 games in both 2023 and 2024. A rebuild that has seen the Bucs pick ninth or better in five consecutive drafts, including No. 1 overall in 2021 and 2023, has not only failed to produce a contender -- it's failed to even produce a farm system that ranks in the top third of MLB. The team at Baseball America ranked the Pirates with MLB's 16th-best system prior to this season. Keith Law of The Athletic did the same. MLB.com's trio of Jim Callis, Jonathan Mayo and Sam Dykstra ranked the Bucs 14th. ESPN's Kiley McDaniel was more bearish, ranking them 20th.

The Pirates already fired manager Derek Shelton. General manager Ben Cherington can't feel as secure as he did a few seasons ago. Owner Bob Nutting bears the brunt of the blame; his refusal to invest in the roster leaves the front office and coaching staff zero margin for error. Nutting's overwhelmingly frugal nature also leaves veritably no chance that Skenes will be signed long-term.

Just because a trade at some point down the road feels inevitable, however, does not mean it'll happen this year. That's never seemed likely, and while the "no way, no chance, no how" quote was from a Pirates executive who preferred to remain anonymous rather than place their name on those words, GM Ben Cherington soon offered a similar sentiment on the record.

The Pirates, for all their warts, are still a pitching-rich organization. The name at the very top of the pyramid may not be on the move, but the Pirates will have no shortage of pitchers who are legitimately available this summer. There's always a broad range of "availability." Pure veteran rentals will probably be aggressively shopped. Pitchers signed/controlled through 2026 will presumably be available but with a higher price tag. And there will be some arms with even more club control on whom the Bucs will listen but not outright dangle to contenders seeking to bolster their own staffs.

Let's run through some of the likely available inventory.

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Pirates Notes: Horwitz, Lawrence, Rotation

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The Pirates are inching closer toward the 2025 debut (and Pirates debut) of first baseman Spencer Horwitz. The 27-year-old has yet to play this year after undergoing wrist surgery in February, but he set out on a minor league rehab stint yesterday and went 1-for-2 with a single and a walk in three plate appearances with Double-A Altoona. Horwitz will need several games in the minors before he’s up with the big league club, but it’s a positive sign to see him take the field.

With Horwitz injured, the Pirates have split first base reps up among Enmanuel Valdez, Endy Rodriguez, Jared Triolo and (more briefly) Matt Gorski. Valdez has connected on a pair of homers and held his own in 74 plate appearances. Rodriguez and Triolo have both struggled. Gorski was only just called up for his MLB debut a few days ago. He’s 1-for-4 with a homer. As a whole, Pittsburgh first basemen have combined for a .192/.286/.374 batting line on the season. The resulting 83 wRC+ (indicating they’ve been 17% worse than average at the plate) ranks 20th in the majors.

Horwitz, one of the Pirates’ key offseason acquisitions, should provide considerably more offense. In parts of two seasons with the Blue Jays, he slashed .264/.355/.428 with 13 home runs and 21 doubles in 425 plate appearances. He’s a .316/.433/.471 hitter in 945 Triple-A plate appearances.

Horwitz has primarily been a first baseman and started at first in yesterday’s rehab game, but he doesn’t necessarily need to take over full-time reps there. The former 24th-round pick has just over 600 innings of left field work in his pro career and another 434 frames at second base. Both positions have been even more problematic for the Bucs than first base.

At second base, the Pirates have seen Adam Frazier, Nick Gonzales, Tsung-Che Cheng and the aforementioned Valdez and Triolo combine to bat .200/.300/.303. In left field, the group of Tommy Pham, Jack Suwinski, Alexander Canario, Ji Hwan Bae, Frazier and Gorski has combined for a staggering .150/.220/.187. No team in baseball has received less production from its left fielders than the Pirates.

Wherever Horwitz slots into the lineup, he should give a boost to a Pirates team that is hitting .224/.304/.341 on the whole. Pittsburgh ranks 23rd in the majors in both runs scored and home runs. Pirates hitters are 26th in batting average, 23rd in on-base percentage and 28th in slugging percentage.

The pitching has been better in Pittsburgh, particularly in the bullpen. Pirates relievers rank 14th in the majors with a solid 3.65 ERA, and Pittsburgh has seven relievers who’ve tossed at least nine innings with an ERA of 3.38 or better. Unfortunately, their most dependable arm so far, righty Justin Lawrence, is out with an elbow injury. Pirates assistant GM Bryan Stroh rather ominously revealed yesterday that Lawrence is headed for a second opinion on that ailing elbow (link via Noah Hiles of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette). There’s still no firm timetable for Lawrence’s return, but Stroh already indicated that he’ll miss more than the minimum 15 days on this current IL stint.

Lawrence, 30, came to the Pirates via waivers this March and has been a terrific pickup. He’s fired 11 1/3 innings of one-run ball, holding opponents to just five hits. The former Rockies hurler has walked six batters and plunked another pair of hitters, casting some doubt on his ability to continue anywhere close to this level, but even with some expected regression in terms of ERA, the right-hander has looked quite intriguing thus far.

Lawrence is throwing more sliders than ever before and missing more bats than ever before. He’s also begun sporadically using a four-seamer after previously throwing a sinker as his only fastball. Lawrence has punched out a whopping 34.1% of his hitters, helping him to offset a 13.8% walk rate. His 14.5% swinging-strike rate is well north of league average and is way up from the 9.3% career mark he carried into 2025. An absence of some note would sting, and seeking a second opinion is an inherently worrisome update.

The rotation hasn’t been quite as sharp as the bullpen, due in no small part to Jared Jones’ elbow injury and early struggles from southpaw Bailey Falter and righty Carmen Mlodzinski . Falter gave up seven runs (five of them earned) in a start for the second time this season yesterday. The lefty blamed his inability to throw his offspeed pitches for strikes when assessing his performance after yesterday’s game (link via the Post-Gazette’s Colin Beazley).

Falter is now sporting a 5.93 ERA on the season. He and Mlodzinski (6.95 ERA) have both been weak points in an otherwise solid rotation. Each of Paul Skenes, Mitch Keller and Andrew Heaney have kept their ERAs under 4.00 — well under in the case of Skenes and Heaney.

The veteran Heaney has been an outstanding addition, giving the Bucs 31 1/3 innings of 1.72 ERA ball with a hearty 26.3% strikeout rate and a tidy 5.1% walk rate. The 33-year-old’s one-year, $5.25MM deal with the Pirates in March caught many off guard, but he’s been a godsend in the wake of Jones’ injury and has probably already made some clubs second guess themselves for passing on him when he lingered in free agency. The Pirates won’t want to talk about the trade deadline anytime soon, but as things stand, Heaney could be a nice arm for them to market if they can’t turn things around after an 11-18 start.

Naturally, with Jones ailing and both Falter and Mlodzinski struggling, there’s plenty of attention on the Pirates’ young arms. Thomas Harrington made a brief MLB debut earlier this season, but it’s top prospect Bubba Chandler who has Bucs fans buzzing the most. The 22-year-old righty is a consensus top-20 prospect in the sport and widely considered among the best four to five pitching prospects in particular.

Chandler is out to a brilliant start in Triple-A Indianapolis, tossing 20 1/3 frames with a 1.33 ERA, a 36.5% strikeout rate and an 8.1% walk rate. That comes on the heels of a 1.83 ERA in seven starts (39 1/3 innings) with Indianapolis late in the 2024 season. The Pirates have been cautious with the touted righty’s pitch counts early in the season, but he tossed a season-high 70 pitches in five one-hit frames his last time out.

Chandler may not be built up to the extent he was in his Triple-A run late last year, when he averaged 87 pitches and 5 2/3 innings per start, but he certainly seems stretched out enough to be a rotation upgrade in Pittsburgh. There’s no firm indication as to when Chandler might be promoted, but we’re fewer than two weeks away from the one-year anniversary of when the Pirates promoted Skenes under similar circumstances; Skenes made his MLB debut on May 11 last year.

Pirates Could Add To Offense By Dealing From Pitching Depth

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The Pirates are scouring the trade market for ways to improve their lineup, and given the lack of pure sellers with available bats, one potential avenue the team has explored is trading from another area of its major league roster to augment the offense. General manager Ben Cherington discussed such a possibility on Sunday (link via Noah Hiles of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette), and he mentioned just today that the team has an abundance of pitching that could appeal to other clubs (also via Hiles).

Pittsburgh indeed has a deceptively deep collection of arms, as MLBTR’s Darragh McDonald explored last Wednesday in a piece for MLBTR Front Office subscribers. ESPN’s Jeff Passan suggests that a back-end starter such as Bailey Falter or perhaps a late-inning relievers like Aroldis Chapman or even Colin Holderman and David Bednar could be in play if the Bucs indeed want to use their collection of arms to add a bat. Alex Stumpf of MLB.com tweets that the Pirates have been willing to deal from the bullpen to improve the lineup but also adds that some of the team’s pitching prospects could come into play.

It goes without saying that Paul Skenes, Jared Jones and Mitch Keller don’t factor into this thinking. That excellent trio is the very foundation on which the Pirates’ staff will be built for the next several years. But the Buccos have plenty of affordable back-of-the-rotation options.

The Braves are covering all but $3MM of Marco Gonzales’ salary this season. He’s pitched to a 2.70 ERA with a 17.3% strikeout rate and 5.5% walk rate in 26 1/3 innings and has looked sharp since returning from a two-month IL stint owing to a muscle strain in his forearm. A team looking for an affordable fourth or fifth starter (e.g. Twins, Astros, Guardians) could be intrigued. Falter is currently on the injured list due to tendinitis in his triceps but should be back before long. He’s posted a 4.08 ERA in 17 starts (90 1/3 innings) while fanning 16.7% of his opponents against a 7.7% walk rate. He’s out of minor league options but controlled another four seasons beyond the 2024 campaign. Martin Perez tossed six shutout innings today but did so while issuing five walks and only lowered his ERA to 5.20 in the process. He’s earning $8MM, which makes it hard to see him bringing back a bat of note.

In terms of less-established options, the Pirates have names like Quinn Priester, Mike Burrows and Braxton Ashcraft to peddle. Priester has gotten some MLB experience, but the former top prospect has yet to establish himself as a core rotation piece. Burrows and Ashcraft haven’t yet debuted. The former only just returned from Tommy John surgery performed last April. He’s slowly moving up the minor league ladder on a rehab assignment. The latter has had a breakout season between Double-A and Triple-A.

The Pirates surely don’t want to deplete their stock of arms too greatly, but in an ideal world, top prospect Bubba Chandler will claim a rotation spot by 2025. At that point, there’s a notable glut of arms with only one rotation spot truly open. Even if Chandler needs more time or gets hurt, Pittsburgh would still have him, Priester, Falter, Ashcraft, Burrows, Luis Ortiz and Johan Oviedo (recovering from offseason Tommy John surgery) as long-term rotation options behind Skenes, Jones and Keller.

In the bullpen, Chapman is back to his excessively wild ways. He’s fanned a mammoth 36.6% of his opponents but also issued walks at a woeful 19.5% clip. To Chapman’s credit, he’s been better in that regard after a shaky April/May showing. Over the past two months, he’s sitting on a 3.43 ERA, 35.6% strikeout rate and 13.3% walk rate. That’s still too many free passes, but it’s more in line with some past marks from Chapman, who has frequently been able to overcome poor command because of his blistering velocity and knack for missing bats. Overall, Chapman sports a 3.93 ERA on the season. He’s being paid $10.5MM, and the Pirates still owe him about $3.72MM as of this writing. He’s a free agent at season’s end.

Both Bednar and especially Holderman would come with greater appeal. Bednar has long frequented the pages of MLBTR in past trade deadlines and offseasons. Clubs throughout the league have targeted the Pittsburgh-area native since he established himself with his hometown club, but a deal has never come together. Now, Bednar is struggling through a career-worst season, with a 4.98 ERA in 34 1/3 innings. The shaky ERA seems tied largely to a spike in homer-to-flyball rate; from 2021-23, only 6.6% of Bednar’s fly balls became homers. This year, he’s nearly doubled that, sitting at 12.2%. Bednar is also allowing more fly balls than ever (50%), making the timing of that spike most unwelcome.

Still, there’s plenty of track record with Bednar, who from ’21-’23 posted a 2.25 ERA with 61 saves and elite strikeout and walk rates. He’s earning $4.51MM this season and is controllable through the 2026 campaign.

The 28-year-old Holderman would be difficult to trade. He’s not yet arbitration-eligible, though he will be this season as a Super Two player. Holderman is controlled four more years, all the way through 2028, and has delivered 36 2/3 innings of 1.72 ERA ball this season, fanning 28.8% of his opponents against a 10.9% walk rate. Moving on from a controllable leverage reliever of that ilk isn’t easy, though the Bucs could consider it a nifty piece of business to acquire Holderman from the Mets in exchange for Daniel Vogelbach (back in 2022) and then trade him for a more impactful bat just two years later. And with so many arms in the system behind Skenes, Keller and Jones, some of those in-house options are going to wind up in the bullpen.

Trades of Holderman and Bednar seem like a long shot, particularly since the latter would be selling low on a popular hometown All-Star. That said, the Bucs do have a large stock of arms from which to deal. Moving an established reliever/starter for a bat could open the door for any number of young, promising in-house replacements, while a more conventional swap might simply see them trade some of those prospects for immediate offensive help — ideally a bat controlled for multiple years beyond the current season.

Pirates Place Bailey Falter On 15-Day IL, Select Brent Honeywell Jr.

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The Pirates announced a series of roster moves this morning, headlined by the club placing left-hander Bailey Falter on the 15-day Injured List. The club selected right-hander Brent Honeywell Jr. to take Falter’s spot on the active roster, and designated left-hander Justin Bruihl for assignment to clear space on the 40-man roster for Honeywell. The club also activated catcher Henry Davis from the IL and optioned him to Triple-A.

Falter, 27, was removed from his start against the Mets yesterday after just two innings of work. As noted by Alex Stumpf of MLB.com, the club announced that lefty had been removed from the game due to left posterior arm discomfort. Falter was considered day-to-day after the game and received treatment from the club’s medical staff. The hurler seemed unfazed by the injury following the game, telling reporters (including Stumpf) that he wasn’t concerned and that they’d know more about the issue today.

It’s still not entirely clear how serious the injury is or how long Falter will be out, but the club will at least be without the southpaw for the next 15 days. That’s a significant blow to the Pirates’ rotation as Falter has provided steady back-of-the-rotation production for the club this year with a 4.08 ERA (100 ERA+) and 4.48 FIP in 90 1/3 innings of work this year. That loss becomes all the more significant given the club’s placement of right-hander Jared Jones on the shelf earlier this week due to a right lat strain, leaving the Pirates with just Paul Skenes, Mitch Keller, and Martin Perez as healthy members of their regular starting rotation.

Right-hander Luis Ortiz is scheduled to make his second start of the year later today in Jones’s stead, but to replace Falter in the rotation it seems likely the club would have to dip into their minor league depth. Right-hander Braxton Ashcraft is one of the club’s top pitching prospects and is already on the 40-man roster, but only just recently came off the minor league IL and may not be ready for a promotion to the majors. That could leave Pittsburgh to turn to a non-roster veteran such as Jake Woodford or Domingo German in search of innings.

In the meantime, the club will turn to Honeywell in order to deepen their bullpen mix. The 29-year-old righty signed a minor league deal with Pittsburgh back in February and is best known for his time in the Rays system as a top prospect. A lengthy series of injuries that included Tommy John surgery and multiple elbow fractures left Honeywell to pitch just 103 1/3 innings in professional games from 2018 to 2022, but the righty nonetheless managed to make to the majors last year with the Padres. He posted a decent 4.05 ERA in 46 2/3 innings of work with the club but was pushed off the roster down the stretch last summer and ended up with the White Sox, with whom he was lit up for seven runs in just 5 2/3 innings of work.

In Triple-A with the Pirates this year, Honeywell has a 4.85 ERA in 39 innings of work with a 19.6% strikeout rate and a 10.1% walk rate. Making room for Honeywell on the 40-man roster is Bruihl, who the club signed to a major league deal last month. The lefty enjoyed some success with the Dodgers early in his career, pitching to a 3.65 ERA and 4.47 FIP in 65 appearances for the club from 2021 to 2023. Bruihl found himself shipped to Colorado at the trade deadline last year, however, and was lit up for seven runs (six earned) in 3 2/3 innings of work for the Rockies. The lefty struggled similarly during his time with Pittsburgh, posting a 9.53 ERA across seven appearances in a Pirates uniform.

Meanwhile, Davis is set to head back to the minors after being placed on the concussion IL last month. Joey Bart returned from the injured list at the end of June and reclaimed his spot alongside veteran Yasmani Grandal in the club’s catching tandem, leaving no room for the first overall selection of the 2021 draft in Pittsburgh’s catching mix. He’ll look to get regular reps behind the plate in Triple-A, although he clearly has nothing left to prove offensively in the minors given his career .336/.472/.629 slash line at the level.

Pirates Notes: Rotation, Contreras

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Paul Skenes’ promotion to the Pirates’ rotation brought came with plenty of fanfare, but beyond the simple arrival of perhaps the sport’s top pitching prospect, there are also broader implications for his addition to the roster. General manager Ben Cherington and manager Derek Shelton said this week that the Bucs will move to a six-man rotation now that Skenes is in the big leagues (link via Kevin Gorman of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review). With three young arms — Skenes, Jared Jones, Quinn Priester — helping to comprise the team’s starting staff, the goal of the six-man group will be to manage that trio’s workload and afford some extra rest.

“Big picture, we’re tracking volume and work volume for every pitcher on the team, no matter who they are,” Cherington told the Pirates beat over the weekend. He went on to add that while he understands Skenes’ workload management will get more attention because of his status as a recent No. 1 overall pick and top-10 prospect in the sport, the Pirates “look at it for every pitcher and it’s a part of the decision-making in terms of again, trying to win a game and also what happens after the game and getting them ready for the next start.”

Skenes joins a staff also including Jones, Priester, Mitch Keller, Martin Perez and Bailey Falter. Veteran lefty Marco Gonzales, currently out with a forearm strain, could factor in once healthy as well — though there’s no current timetable for his return. He’s still in the midst of a weekslong shutdown, though surgery was not a consideration as of late April.

Just how long the Buccos will stick to a six-person staff isn’t presently known. Health will be a prominent factor, as an injury anywhere in the current sextet could simply prompt a move to a more traditional five-man arrangement. The schedule also plays a role. Shelton pointed to a pair of days off in four-day span late this month that could throw a wrench into the six-man plan, noting that the team will “re-evaluate” at that point.

That certainly doesn’t sound like the six-man pivot will be permanent, but it’s of some note that the Pirates are comfortable and perhaps even prefer to use such an alignment when navigating lengthy stretches with little to no time off. Pirates fans will want to check out Gorman’s piece for more extensive quotes from both Cherington and Shelton, as well as some of the pitchers who are in the group. Perez, for instance, explained his rationale for preferring a more conventional five-man setup, while Falter noted that he “loves” the extra day of rest and provided his own explanation.

The other domino effect of Skenes’ big league arrival was the likely departure of a pitcher who once represented the same type of “future building-block” hope that Skenes does now. Certainly, Roansy Contreras was never regarded as well as Skenes is at the moment, but he was the headliner of the trade that sent righty Jameson Taillon to the Yankees.

Contreras was considered one of the game’s 100 best prospects at the time and held his own quite nicely through his first season-plus. In 2021-22, he gave the Bucs 98 innings of 3.67 ERA ball with slightly worse-than-average strikeout and walk rates — all before celebrating his 23rd birthday. The makings of a solid mid-rotation arm looked to be there.

However, Contreras has fallen into a swift decline, losing velocity and watching his strikeout rate drop despite a move to short relief. He’s been tagged for a 6.17 ERA since Opening Day 2023, fanning just under 19% of opponents against a rough 10.6% walk rate. He’s out of minor league options. The Pirates bit the bullet and designated him for assignment to open a 40-man spot for Skenes.

Cherington discussed the difficult decision to do so in an interview with Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. Cherington said following the DFA that the Pirates still believe Contreras can be “a good big leaguer.” The Pirates gave Contreras as much time as they felt they could, however, and Cherington noted that the “alternative moves we could have made to open up that spot were not going to be best for the team” in the short-term.

That’s a notable departure from the type of rebuilding mindset that has been prominent throughout much of Cherington’s tenure. He was hired following the dismissal of longtime GM Neal Huntington as the Pirates looked to a new voice to rebuild the organization from the ground up.

The Bucs still aren’t a division powerhouse by any means, but they’re five and a half games out in the Central and have the makings of an interesting rotation with Skenes, Jones, Keller and Priester all having risen through the system. Bats like Bryan Reynolds, Oneil Cruz and Ke’Bryan Hayes offer some optimism. Ownership may not have given the green light to spend much in the past couple offseasons — Reynolds’ extension notwithstanding — but it seems clear the Pirates are focusing on the here-and-now far more than in the past. It’s easy to argue that an earlier call to the big leagues for Skenes would’ve aligned more with that mentality, but on the same token it’s also fair to point out that the Bucs have typically waited until a player would be past Super Two status before calling up their top prospects. That definitely is not the case with Skenes.

Mackey suggests that another club is likely to trade for Contreras or at least claim him off waivers. I’m inclined to agree. A change of scenery wouldn’t surprise many and seems the likeliest outcome. That, however, also leaves the Bucs with little to show for their trade of Taillon. Mackey runs through several trades that have panned out that way, pointing out that while trades of Joe Musgrove and Jose Quintana have worked out reasonably well (I’d add Adam Frazier, who netted Jack Suwinski), Pittsburgh has come up empty on several notable swaps (Taillon, Starling Marte, Clay Holmes, Josh Bell).

For a front office with perennial payroll restrictions from ownership, converting on trades of big leaguers is exponentially more important. The Pirates surely hope that they won’t be in a position to be trading players away this summer, but if they are, they’ll need to improve over their recent track record.

Jared Jones Makes Pirates’ Roster; Jared Triolo Likely To Be Named Second Baseman

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Top pitching prospect Jared Jones has won a spot on the Pirates’ Opening Day roster, the club announced to its beat writers this morning (X link via Alex Stumpf of MLB.com). He’ll likely slot into the team’s rotation. The Bucs will select the contracts of Jones and of right-handers Hunter Stratton and Ryder Ryan (X thread via Stumpf). Pittsburgh will place catcher Yasmani Grandal and infielder/outfielder Ji Hwan Bae on the 10-day injured list to begin the season. Relievers Colin Holderman and Carmen Mlodzinski will open the season on the 15-day IL.

Also making the roster are out-of-options pitchers Bailey Falter, Josh Fleming and Roansy Contreras, as well as outfielder Edward Olivares and righty Luis Ortiz. The Bucs will not carry non-roster invitees Brent Honeywell Jr. and Billy McKinney on the roster to begin the season. Those aren’t the only key roster decisions Pittsburgh has faced this spring; Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette writes that manager Derek Shelton last night called it a “very safe assumption” that Jared Triolo will be the Pirates’ starting second baseman to begin the season.

Jones, 22, was the Pirates’ second-round pick back in 2020 and entered spring training ranked among the game’s top 100 prospects at each of Baseball America (No. 74), MLB.com (No. 62), The Athletic (No. 39), FanGraphs (No. 62) and ESPN (No. 53).

Those rankings come on the heels of a strong 2023 season split between Double-A Altoona and Triple-A Indianapolis, wherein Jones logged a combined 126 1/3 innings of 3.85 ERA ball with a 27.6% strikeout rate and 9.5% walk rate. The right-hander’s dominant spring showing surely didn’t hurt his chances of making the Opening Day roster; Jones pitched 16 1/3 innings without an earned run during Grapefruit League play, yielding just nine hits against eight walks with 15 punchouts.

The Athletic’s Keith Law writes that Jones has made huge gains with both his heater and his slider since being drafted and now has the potential for three plus pitches. The former two-way standout is an excellent athlete and, as noted by Eric Longenhagen and Tess Taruskin at FanGraphs, has also improved his strike-throwing as he’s shifted his focus solely to pitching. Scouting reports on Jones generally agree that there’d mid-rotation potential, and further improvements to any of his command, curveball or changeup could further boost his upside.

Jones tossed 122 2/3 innings in 2022 and 126 1/3 innings last season. That should set the stage for a decent uptick in his workload this season. The Bucs might still be cautious with him on a start-by-start basis, particularly early in the year, but it wouldn’t be a surprise if a healthy Jones approached or exceeded 150 frames this year. Since he’s a consensus top-100 prospect who’s making the Opening Day roster, his performance this season will particularly important for the Bucs. If Jones wins Rookie of the Year this season or finishes top three in National League Cy Young voting, he could net the Pirates an extra pick in the 2025 draft under the 2022-26 CBA’s newly implemented prospect promotion incentives.

Triolo, 26, made his big league debut in 2023 and spent the bulk of his time at third base, filling in for an injured Ke’Bryan Hayes. That’s Triolo’s natural position, but Hayes is one of MLB’s best defensive players at any position, so Triolo will slide over to second base in what could be his first full big league season. The writing for him winning the second base job was on the wall after the Bucs optioned Liover Peguero and Nick Gonzales — particularly with Bae also banged up (and now headed to the injured list).

In 209 plate appearances last season, Triolo batted .298/.388/.398 — production that was buoyed by an enormous .440 average on balls in play and came in  spite of a grisly 30.1% strikeout rate. The punchouts and good fortune on balls in play have both continued this spring. Triolo has taken 45 plate appearances and batted .325/.400/.525 — excellent surface-level numbers that are propped up by a more suspect .458 BABIP. Couple that with a 31.1% strikeout rate, and his production looks similar to his 2023 output — though this year’s pair of homers in his limited spring playing time is a good sign, as Triolo hit just three long balls in last year’s 209 trips to the plate.

Triolo is a strong defender who draws plenty of walks, which should help set a decent floor for him, but he’ll need to cut down on the strikeouts and/or significantly improve his quality of contact (86.6 mph average exit velocity; 32.8% hard-hit rate) if he’s to sustain much in the way of success at the plate in the majors. Strikeouts were an issue in his first taste of Triple-A work last year (26.5%) but weren’t a problem for him in the lower and mid-minor league levels, so perhaps he’ll drop that rate over a larger sample as he gains more experience. If nothing else, a plus defender at multiple positions with a keen eye at the plate has the makings of a useful utility option, but Triolo will get the opportunity to show he can be more than that right out of the gate in 2024.

The 27-year-old Stratton made his MLB debut with the Bucs in 2023 and pitched 12 innings with three runs on nine hits and three walks. He fanned 10 of his 47 opponents (21.3%) and kept the ball on the ground at a hearty 51.5% rate. He was non-tendered in November but returned on a minors deal two months later. Stratton will now get a second big league look after firing seven shutout frames with a 7-to-2 K/BB ratio this spring.

Ryan, 29 in May, pitched a scoreless frame with the Mariners in 2023. That represents the entirety of his MLB experience. He’s fanned 28.6% of his opponents in 7 2/3 innings for Pittsburgh this spring and done so with a staggering 73.7% ground-ball rate. Ryan has pitched to a sub-4.00 ERA with a strikeout rate north of 24% in each of the past two Triple-A seasons (one with the Mariners and one with the Rangers). The Pirates will give him his first real look in the majors to see if he can carry any of that success over to the game’s top level.

Pirates’ Trade Talks For Rotation Help Have Slowed

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Throughout the late stages of the offseason, the Pirates have reportedly been exploring the trade market for rotation help, with the Marlins (specifically, right-hander Edward Cabrera) being the team most frequently suggested as a potential trade partner. However, while the Bucs talked with the Fish and surely several other clubs about deals to bolster the rotation, Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette reports that talks have “lost steam” and that GM Ben Cherington now says he’s increasingly focused on the arms in house.

“If there are things we can do to make the team better, we’re gonna stay on that,” Cherington tells Mackey. “No guarantee those things happen. We’re mostly focused on the guys who are here.”

The Pirates have three slam-dunk members of their Opening Day rotation: Mitch Keller, Martin Perez and Marco Gonzales. Keller, who recently signed a five-year contract extension, will get the Opening Day nod. There are still a pair of open rotation jobs, however, and Cherington suggested there are six or seven options vying for those two opportunities.

The names currently competing include a mix of young prospects, rebound candidates coming off a down 2023 showing, and veterans hoping to win a spot. While the Pirates have already informed 2023 No. 1 overall draft pick Paul Skenes that he won’t make the Opening Day roster, fellow top prospect Jared Jones (No. 74 on Baseball America’s top 100 list) is firmly in the mix. Jones may not have the same ceiling as Skenes, but Skenes pitched just 6 2/3 innings last year following the draft. Jones, on the other hand, logged a combined 3.85 ERA, 27.6% strikeout rate and 9.4% walk rate in 126 1/3 frames between Double-A and Triple-A in ’23. He’s pitched 4 2/3 shutout innings in camp.

Jones, 22, was specifically called out by manager Derek Shelton as a candidate for a spot in the Opening Day rotation (X link via Alex Stumpf of MLB.com). He’d need to be added to the 40-man roster, which could potentially work against him. That’s not true of Roansy Contreras, Quinn Priester, Luis Ortiz, Bailey Falter and Kyle Nicolas, each of whom is on the 40-man roster. (Lefty Jackson Wolf is as well, but the Pirates already optioned him to Double-A in their first wave of spring cuts).

Contreras and Falter have the most experience of the bunch. Both are looking to rebound from ugly 2023 showings. Contreras looked like a potential rotation staple as recently as 2022, when he pitched 95 innings of 3.79 ERA ball with passable, if unspectacular, strikeout and walk rates (21.1%, 9.6%). However, he lost more than a mile off his heater in ’23 and took a step back in virtually every rate category of note. He’s still only 24 years old and is just two years removed from being a top-100 prospect himself, so there’s ample time for him to figure things out. He’s out of minor league options, meaning he’ll make the roster one way or another — be it in the rotation or in the bullpen. Pirates fans will want to check out Mackey’s piece in full, as it more fully details some of the gains Contreras has shown thus far in camp.

Falter was acquired at the 2022 trade deadline in a swap sending utilityman Rodolfo Castro to the Phillies. The 26-year-old was never as touted a prospect as Contreras was, but the two followed relatively similar arcs otherwise: brief MLB debut in 2021, solid back-of-the-rotation results in 2022, poor showing in 2023. Falter tossed 84 innings with a 3.86 ERA as the Phillies’ fifth starter in ’22, fanning 21.2% of his opponents against an exceptional 4.9% walk rate. Like Contreras, he saw his strikeout, walk, swinging-strike and home run rates all back up in 2023 as he finished out the season with a 5.36 ERA in 80 2/3 frames. Also like Contreras, he’s out of minor league options and will need to make the roster or else be traded or exposed to waivers.

Priester, Ortiz and Nicolas all have minor league options remaining and have all made their big league debuts (in quite brief fashion, for Nicolas). They all ranked within the organization’s top 15 prospects at Baseball America as recently as 2023. Priester and Ortiz both drew top-100 fanfare prior to their debuts. None of the three has established himself on the roster, however. Priester has the best minor league numbers of the group but has been hit harder than Ortiz in the big leagues. Ortiz throws the hardest but has displayed shakier command than Priester. Nicolas still hasn’t had much success above Double-A, so he seems likely ticketed for Triple-A Indianapolis to begin the year, particularly since he’s already been hit hard in camp.

The Bucs also have a pair of veterans who could compete for a job. Lefty Josh Fleming is on the 40-man roster after signing a split deal late in the winter. He’s out of options and can’t be sent down, but he’s spent the bulk of his MLB career as a swingman with the Rays and could be headed for a similar spot in Pittsburgh. Righty Chase Anderson is in camp on a non-roster deal. The 36-year-old hasn’t posted a sub-5.00 ERA in the big leagues since being traded by the Brewers following the 2019 season but has shown decently in Triple-A while bouncing around the league since then.

Phillies, Pirates To Swap Bailey Falter For Rodolfo Castro

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The Phillies and Pirates are nearing a swap of left-hander Bailey Falter and infielder Rodolfo Castro, reports Jayson Stark of The Athletic (Twitter link). The deal has been agreed upon, pending medical reviews, tweets Alex Coffey of the Philadelphia Inquirer.

Falter, who turned 26 earlier this season, will give the Pirates an immediate option in the rotation. He’s struggled in 2023, logging a 5.13 ERA in 40 1/3 frames, but is only a season removed from 84 innings of 3.86 ball over the life of 20 appearances (16 of them starts) with Philadelphia. Though Falter has struggled both in the Majors and in Triple-A this season, he’s generally pitched with excellent command (career 4.7% walk rate in MLB, 7.3% in Triple-A). He’s not a hard-thrower, but Falter has still missed bats in the upper minors and can be controlled for an additional five years via arbitration.

Falter is in the last of his three option years. He can be shuttled between Triple-A Indianapolis and Pittsburgh for the remainder of the current season, but the Bucs will need to keep him on the Opening Day roster in 2024 or else designate him for assignment and risk exposing him to waivers. Today’s trade of Rich Hill to the Padres and injuries to others (e.g. JT Brubaker, Vince Velasquez) have created enough uncertainty in the Pittsburgh rotation that there ought to be room for Falter to have a trial run in the season’s final two months. Pittsburgh’s starting staff currently includes Mitch Keller, Johan Oviedo and rookies Quinn Priester and Osvaldo Bido.

As for the Phillies, they’ll add a switch-hitter with experience at three infield spots. Much like Falter, Castro is in his final option season, potentially has five years of club control remaining, and is struggling in 2023 after a solid showing in 2022. Last year saw the 24-year-old turn in a .233/.299/.427 batting line (103 wRC+) with 11 home runs and seven doubles in 278 plate appearances. That’s not exactly standout production, but Castro drew solid defensive grades at the hot corner and looked like a potential utilityman moving forward, at the very least.

Castro got out to a huge start in 2023, batting .286/.378/.468 through the end of April, but his bat has cratered. Since May 1, he’s hitting just .192/.271/.283 with three homers, two doubles and a 30.1% strikeout rate in 133 plate appearances. He’s drawn nice grades for his defense a second base this season but lesser reviews for his work at third base and shortstop. On the whole, Castro is a switch-hitter with a bit of pop who can perhaps be relied upon at second or third base but is more of an in-a-pinch option at shortstop.

The Phillies were known to be looking for right-handed bats, and while Castro likely wasn’t on many (or any) radars in that regard, he does fill the need. The switch-hitter touts a career .277/.341/.559 line as a right-handed hitter (just .193/.272/.293 as a lefty) and is hitting .290/.368/.538 from the right side of the dish this season.

It’s an interesting swap of a pair of young change-of-scenery candidates. The Phillies, having acquired Michael Lorenzen to pair with Aaron Nola, Zack Wheeler, Taijuan Walker and Ranger Suarez, didn’t have any immediate need in the rotation for Falter, who’s also been passed on the depth chart by Cristopher Sanchez. The Pirates, meanwhile, now have Liover Peguero, Nick Gonzales and Alika Williams in the infield mix alongside injured hopeful cornerstones Ke’Bryan Hayes and Oneil Cruz. There wasn’t a clear long-term role for Castro. It’s something of a “challenge” trade for a back-end starter and potential role player, beefing up depth for each organization in potential areas of need.

Phillies Option Bailey Falter

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The Phillies made a move on the pitching staff this afternoon, optioning southpaw Bailey Falter to Triple-A Lehigh Valley. Reliever Erich Uelmen was recalled to take the open active roster spot.

Falter was pushed into an unexpectedly important season-opening role for Philadelphia. Spring Training injuries to Ranger Suárez and top prospect Andrew Painter ensured Falter would open the year in the starting five. Falter had started 16 of 20 appearances last season, working to a 3.76 ERA in that capacity, so it wasn’t an unfamiliar role. The Phils seemed likely to push him into a depth role if everyone were healthy but the aforementioned injuries threw both Falter and Matt Strahm into the rotation behind Aaron Nola, Zack Wheeler and Taijuan Walker.

The 26-year-old Falter has had a rough first six weeks to the season. He’s surrendered a 5.13 ERA over 40 1/3 innings as his strikeout rate has dropped from 21.2% to 16%. His swinging strike percentage has had a correspondingly notable dip from 11% to 7.6% this season. Falter has thrown plenty of strikes and likely been a bit unlucky to carry a 58.1% strand rate over his first eight outings. He’s given up seven home runs, though — an issue throughout his career — and seen the marked drop in whiffs.

Falter gave up six runs in 4 1/3 innings against the Giants last night. They were all technically unearned because they came with two outs in an inning in which Bryson Stott had committed an error, but Falter allowed eight hits (including a longball) out of 22 batters faced. That was enough for the Phils to go in a different direction for the time being.

Suárez is back from the injured list to take the fourth rotation spot. Philadelphia has been using Strahm out of the bullpen of late despite his strong start to the year out of the rotation. Manager Rob Thomson said this evening that Strahm was not an option to start Sunday against the Cubs, when Falter’s turn through the rotation will come up (via Scott Lauber of the Philadelphia Inquirer). He could work multiple innings behind an opener or as part of a bullpen game, while Thomson hinted the organization could also select the contract of a pitcher who is not currently on the 40-man roster.

Latest On Phillies’ Rotation Competition

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The Phillies entered camp with much of the season-opening roster in place. The biggest storyline was the battle for the final rotation spot. The Phils have consistently maintained top pitching prospect Andrew Painter would be given a legitimate chance to claim the job even though he won’t turn 20 until next month.

Those plans were seemingly put on hold last week, as the hard-throwing young righty reported some discomfort in his elbow. The Phils sent Painter for further examination. The club has yet to provide many specifics, though Todd Zolecki of MLB.com wrote yesterday that the team has not received any indication Painter could require surgical repair. It seems the current expectation is Painter will be able to rest and rehab but that won’t be officially known until orthopedic surgeon Dr. Neal ElAttrache has an opportunity to review the young hurler’s medicals.

Even if Painter avoids going under the knife, the issue certainly diminishes his chances of cracking the majors out of camp. That’d point towards left-hander Bailey Falter securing the final rotation spot behind Aaron Nola, Zack Wheeler, Ranger Suárez and Taijuan Walker. Falter started 16 of 20 appearances last season, pitching to a 3.86 ERA in 84 frames. The 25-year-old had an average 21.2% strikeout rate and excellent 4.9% walk percentage to support that solid run prevention. The home run ball was a bit of an issue for the fly-ball specialist, but Falter showed enough to suggest he could be a viable back-of-the-rotation option.

Falter addressed his role with reporters this week, indicating he’s not much concerned with where the club deploys him. “As long as I’m one of those 26 guys (on the active roster), I’ll do whatever they want me to do,” he said (link via Alex Coffey of the Philadelphia Inquirer). Falter has a decent amount of experience in the relief corps as well, coming out of the bullpen 21 times in 22 outings during his rookie season two years ago.

Aside from Falter and Painter, southpaw Cristopher Sánchez perhaps represents the top option for the fifth rotation spot. Zolecki notes that manager Rob Thomson has named righty Nick Nelson as another starting candidate. Nelson has only started four big league games and none of those appearances lasted more than two innings as opener work. He worked primarily in a multi-inning relief capacity last season, his first in Philadelphia. Nelson threw 68 2/3 innings over 47 outings, pitching to a 4.85 ERA with a 22.5% strikeout rate and 11.8% walk percentage.

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