Gammons On Available Pitchers
ESPN’s Peter Gammons names ten starting pitchers who could be available in the coming months. We’ll try to devise a comprehensive list when we get to the position in our Trade Market series.
Gammons’ trade possibilities: Paul Byrd, Jeremy Sowers, Derek Lowe, Rich Harden, Odalis Perez, Brett Tomko, Jarrod Washburn, Zach Duke, Vicente Padilla, and Kevin Millwood. Byrd, Lowe, Perez, and Tomko will be free agents after the season. Sowers and Duke are the kids. Harden is the oft-injured ace. Washburn, Padilla, and Millwood bring burdensome contracts.
Gammons also five "unlikely, but not impossible" scenarios. He suggests A.J. Burnett, Bartolo Colon, Joe Blanton, Greg Maddux, and Ben Sheets could be moved under the right circumstances.
Mariners Close To Signing Washburn
I’m finally back in action – my blogging service was down all day. Plenty of stuff to talk about.
Scott Miller of CBS Sportsline is reporting that the Mariners are close to signing lefty starter Jarrod Washburn for $36-38MM over four years. ‘Bout time they got a scoop over there. I’m surprised Scott Boras didn’t hold out for more cash, milking Washburn’s fluke of a 3.20 ERA.
Want to know a great way to identify someone who pitched way over his head? Find the starter with the biggest gap between his actual ERA and his component ERA. What the hell’s a component ERA? It’s where you look at a pitcher’s peripheral stats – walks, home runs, and hits allowed – and compute what his ERA should have been. Check out the component ERAs from 2005 at ESPN. It’s the most accurate way to predict ERA that I know of.
Anyway, Jarrod Washburn should’ve had a 4.19 ERA this year based on how he pitched. All sorts of lucky factors converged in his contract year, which pleases Mr. Boras very much. Washburn’s not horrible – he’ll throw up ERAs around 4 consistently. It’s just that the man is hardly durable enough to be locking up for four solid years. I suppose Bill Bavasi thinks he had no other choice than to sign a Boras pitcher.
Willy Taveras, Jarrod Washburn Mentioned For Cubs
Chicago Sun-Times writer Chris De Luca has a few names he thinks would work for the Cubs. Said De Luca today:
"It’s too bad Wood’s future is so murky. The Houston Astros, in need of pitching and always in the market for homegrown stars such as Wood, are listening to offers for center fielder Willy Taveras, the runner-up in National League Rookie of the Year voting. With the Astros showing more trust in Chris Burke during the postseason, Taveras has become a hot name on the trade market."
While one Juan Pierre in the lineup has a chance of working, two of them certainly would not. You can’t get four home runs between two outfield spots.
De Luca also mentions that Jarrod Washburn and his 3.20 ERA "should have been an option, but Hendry has shown little interest in the left-hander." De Luca first mentioned the Cubs as a possible suitor back on November 18th.
I can’t agree here either. If you compare Washburn’s indicators (baserunners and HR allowed, strikeout rate) you’ll notice that Washburn posted a 4.64 ERA in 2004 with indicators very similar to this year. In other words, a huge chunk of that 3.20 that’s going to earn Washburn an extra $10MM can be attributed to luck.
Rangers, Cubs, Reds Covet Jarrod Washburn
There seems to be a consensus among sportswriters that Jarrod Washburn will end up a Texas Ranger. I’ve spoken to Chicago Sun-Times writer Chris De Luca about Washburn, and he thinks new GM Jon Daniels is willing to overpay for a decent starter this winter.
Steve Phillips also picked the Rangers as Washburn’s destination. We all agree on his worth – a bit overrated after the 3.20 ERA, but a useful if somewhat overpaid 3rd starter. I ranked him 19th on the RotoAuthority Top 50 Free Agents List, just behind Jeff Weaver.
De Luca also thinks the Cubs are a possible suitor given Washburn’s desire to play near his hometown of LaCrosse, Wisconsin. The Brewers seemed like a logical choice, but De Luca informed me that Milwaukee has stated that they will not pursue Washburn. GM Doug Melvin has publicly stated that he won’t pay $8MM+ for a starter after the lackluster results of last year’s free agent signings.
It’s sounding more and more like the Cubs will come up with another starter to add to the stable. Then they’ll deal from that depth to acquire an outfielder. GM Jim Hendry may be more inclined to make a big splash with A.J. Burnett than give a lot of money to Washburn. Unlike last season when he had to get Sammy Sosa off the books, Hendry will act early and often. The Cardinals’ interest in Burnett may motivate Hendry to make a better offer to the starter. The Cards’ flirtation with Greg Maddux a few years back certainly influenced his ultimate return to Chicago.
A dark horse in the Washburn sweepstakes is the Reds. We know they’ll bring in some sort of starter – ESPN expects Cincinnati to make a run at Paul Byrd. Washburn is younger than Byrd, but Byrd allows fewer baserunners due to pinpoint control. One thing’s for sure: Cincinnati is a lot closer to LaCrosse than Arlington is.
If the Reds pass on both Washburn and Byrd, expect Kenny Rogers to be on their radar. He’s shown an above average ability to limit the long ball, a skill the Reds have come to appreciate after the Eric Milton debacle.