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Jose Contreras

All Eyes On Contreras

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Buster Olney says that Jose Contreras may be the best available starting pitcher at the moment, which speaks to how weak the market is.  Olney lists the Cubs, Braves, Marlins, Indians, and Phillies as teams on hand to watch his six inning, five run performance Sunday night in Baltimore.

To call Contreras the best available indicates that Javier Vazquez is off the market.  Contreras’s challengers still include Matt Morris, Dontrelle Willis, and Jason Jennings.  If the Pirates were to inexplicably consider trading Ian Snell, he’d easily jump to the forefront.  That he’s even available is a dubious rumor at this point.

As for Contreras, his junk might work over in the NL.  Maybe that’s why four of the five teams watching his start reside in that league.  Olney’s scout said he was working at 87-91, though he did touch 94 last night.

Contreras makes another $4MM this year, $10MM in ’08, and another $10MM in ’09.  That shouldn’t scare off too many clubs.  Maybe the Marlins.  With a 2-4% chance at making the playoffs this year the Marlins would be acquiring Contreras more for 2008-09.

Rockies Inquired On White Sox Starters

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In June, the main trade buzz around the Rockies was that they had interest in Octavio Dotel.  Today, Mark Gonzales of the Chicago Tribune added some intriguing names also on Colorado’s wish list: Mark Buehrle, Jose Contreras, and Jon Garland.  Obviously Buehrle is off limits now.

It wasn’t too long ago that Dan O’Dowd expressed his interest in adding a White Sox hurler.  Apparently talks stalled when Kenny Williams wanted southpaw starter Franklin Morales or third baseman Ian Stewart from the Rox.  Morales has frontline stuff and is trying to hone his control at Double A Tulsa.  He missed some time in May with a strained hamstring, but recovered and made the Futures Game.  Stewart, playing at Triple A, made the team as well.  He started off slow in the power department but smacked seven home runs in June.  The Rockies may have a longjam soon with both Stewart and Garrett Atkins at the hot corner. 

Garland would be a useful addition for Colorado.  I imagine Williams would only trade Garland if O’Dowd gave in on Morales or Stewart.  Maybe the teams could agree on Contreras for Ubaldo Jimenez instead.  Jimenez has a lot of talent but has shown poor control for most of his minor league career, especially in ’07.  Such a swap still seems advantageous to Chicago but I could imagine Williams asking for Jimenez.  Pitching coach Don Cooper has a knack for fixing control problems.

Contreras Actually Lacks No-Trade Clause

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The White Sox informed the Chicago Sun-Times today that Jose Contreras’s no-trade clause actually ran out in November of 2006.  So much for Contreras waiving anything.  Joe Cowley says the Mets, Braves, and Dodgers are all interested. 

I wouldn’t be shocked to see Kenny Williams deal Buehrle and another starter.  He could trade Buehrle for a top position player prospect, and then swap Contreras or Javier Vazquez for a younger starter.  It will be tough for KW to sit back and close up shop on starters after making a Buehrle trade.  A Buehrle trade may only increase the desperation of the remaining clubs.  Williams might still have the best available starter in his stable, if the competition is Matt Morris and Jason Jennings. 

Contreras Would Waive No-Trade Clause

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According to Mark Gonzales of the Chicago Tribune, a Mark Buehrle contract extension would likely result in a trade of Jose Contreras, Javier Vazquez, or Jon Garland.  That’s probably the order of likelihood, too.   

Contreras is owed about $4.9MM this year, $10MM in 2008, and another $10MM in 2009.  Despite the decline in his strikeout rate, that’s a decent price.  He’d make a fine pickup for the Mets this year and would be paired again with countryman Orlando Hernandez.  It’s difficult to gauge the Mets’ level of interest right now though.

Contreras really wants to stay with the White Sox, though he would waive his no-trade clause if the team wanted to trade him.  I imagine his agent or the Players’ Union might have something to say there, because the player almost always gets something for waiving his NTC. 

White Sox Buehrle Extension Close?

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UPDATE: Readers are writing in saying 670 AM The Score in Chicago is reporting that Buehrle is "likely" to sign an extension for four years and "around" $50MM.

In a surprising turnabout, White Sox starter Mark Buehrle is off the trading block.  Joe Cowley of the Chicago Sun-Times has the exclusive – the two sides might agree on a contract extension by week’s end.  It’s possible that Buehrle has reduced his demand from five years to four.  Would 4/60 get it done?  Cowley says the White Sox remain Buehrle’s #1 choice for the future, by a long shot.  Even over the Cardinals, apparently.

While the White Sox may lock up Buehrle, they’re still looking to trade Tadahito Iguchi and Jermaine Dye.  Additionally, Jose Contreras or Javier Vazquez may be shopped.  In Vazquez, the Sox would still probably own the best starter on the trading block.  The Astros and Braves were known to be scouting last night’s White Sox-Devil Rays game.

Mets After Jose Contreras

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The Mets have kicked the tires on Mark Buehrle, but Jose Contreras may be a more likely acquisition according to the Newark Star-Ledger.  The Mets would prefer not to trade younger players for a rental, and may turn to Contreras because he’s signed through 2009.  I’m sure Kenny Williams would have no problem with that.  I think Contreras would handle a return to New York well.  Lastings Milledge would be more than enough for Contreras, in my mind.

Dan Graziano’s article also confirms that the Braves and Red Sox have been pushing hard for Buehrle.  He says there was "no indication last night that the Yankees were interested in Buehrle."  Of course, Boston’s interest could change that.

The Phillies, meanwhile, have inquired on both Dontrelle Willis and Buehrle and found the price unreasonable.  They’re going to need to acquire a starter one way or another.

What About Other White Sox Pitchers?

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A couple of Chicago newspapers raised a logical possibility today: what if the impending White Sox fire sale extends beyond those who will become free agents?  Specifically, the Sox have three veteran starting pitchers under contract and any of them could be traded. 

Take Javier Vazquez.  He’s a fine addition to any team looking for a complementary, solid, healthy pitcher.  Vazquez is signed through 2010 at $11.5MM annually, about the market rate.  He’ll turn 31 soon, and has no health issues.  His strikeout rate is strong, his walk rate low.  Granted he’s HR prone and his ERA never quite seems to match his other stats, but he’s plenty valuable.

There’s Jon Garland, who’s only 27 and has quietly posted a 3.51 ERA.  I’m quite skeptical, because his strikeout rate is at a career low but his hit rate is too.  That’s not sustainable.  Nonetheless, he can really eat up innings and has been healthy for years aside from minor concerns this spring.  Garland makes $10MM this year and $12MM in ’08.   

Jose Contreras is the riskiest White Sox pitcher.  Contreras earns $9MM this year, $10MM in ’08, and $10MM in ’09.  His control this year has been his worst since ’04, and his strikeout rate is a career worst.  He’s 35 and looks like he’s 40.  He is compensating for his declining skills by getting more groundballs. 

Any of these three could be available in the coming weeks.  Williams might find that he can get much better prospects in return for pitchers who will not walk after 2007.  Imagine what he could get if he were to package two of them.  That would be almost unprecedented.

White Sox Payroll To Increase

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I recently got word from my White Sox source, so I have some info to pass along. 

He confirmed that while the Sox would indeed love to bring Abreu aboard (as would plenty of teams), there’s really nothing in the works.  Kenny Williams wants pitching in return for his extra starter, but is in no hurry to trade Jose Contreras.  The Sox are still in contact with Houston about him, but it’s likely that Contreras stays put at least until after the World Baseball Classic.  It makes sense to play it safe given that the Sox hold all the cards.  Look for Houston’s interest to escalate if Clemens ends up elsewhere or retires.

It is a fact that the payroll can and will increase as necessary.  The Sox are actively pushing for a repeat and will spend more money to do it.  The Sox should have at least $10MM in the coffers for any major need that may arise.

KW Denies Abreu Rumor…Or Does He?

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Respected Chicago Tribune sportswriter Mark Gonzales got in touch with Kenny Williams through a spokesman tonight.  Based on this article, it seems that Gonzales inquired about the recent Abreu for Contreras/Dye rumor.  The word:

"Williams, through a team spokesman, said there is nothing to the report, adding he hadn’t spoken to the Phillies in eight or nine days and that no proposal was tendered."

Now, we didn’t report that this thing was on the verge.  My point, rather, was that the White Sox love Abreu.  That was confirmed by my source; the actual Dye/Contreras scenario was reportedly broken by Howard Eskin of 610 AM in Philadelphia. 

Given that Jermaine Dye is a capable, affordable right fielder, the White Sox aren’t desperate to upgrade right now.  Still, I wouldn’t be surprised to see the White Sox go after Abreu down the road.  Kenny Williams didn’t seem to be denying interest in Abreu.

What about Jose Contreras?  Word is that Houston is the top contender for his services.  Nothing would happen either way until the Clemens situation shakes out, and Rosenthal expects him back.  We reported the same back in December. 

White Sox Interested In Abreu

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Remember that Abreu/Contreras/Dye rumor that was bouncing around last night that couldn’t quite graduate from the Unfounded category?  We’re a little closer to a foundation about this one tonight.

A very solid source close to the Phillies tells me that Kenny Williams and the White Sox “love” Bobby Abreu.  It’s the first I’ve heard that the club is truly interested in the right fielder.  He also mentioned that the Phils would like a pitcher like Jose Contreras.  There is some question as to whether the Phils would need to include Gavin Floyd to make an equitable deal.

He said that with the White Sox payroll rising to over $90MM, they can’t take on much more.  However, I’ve heard in the past from my White Sox guy that the Sox would actually take the payroll to $105MM.  What’s more, the 2006 salaries of Dye, Contreras, and Abreu are a wash.  The Phils would take on $13MM and the White Sox would do the same.

The Sox would have to squeeze a marginal $11MM into their payroll in 2007.  Abreu is owed $17MM for that season (including a $2MM buyout of his ’08 option).  But given that the club likely would have exercised Jermaine Dye’s affordable $6MM option, it’s a marginal $11 mil for ’07.

This would clearly be a win now move for the Phils, as it would strengthen their team for 2006.  The combination of Contreras and Dye was worth 10.5 wins above replacement players in 2005.  Abreu was worth 6.8 wins.  While he still has potential at age 23, Gavin Floyd can’t be counted on for much after posting a 6.16 ERA and 1.61 WHIP in 137 Triple A innings in 2005.

Another interesting nugget is the close friendship between Abreu and Ozzie Guillen.  Guillen certainly had some influence on the acquisition and retention of Freddy Garcia.

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