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Jose Contreras

Trade Candidates Part 1

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With the hot stove not all that hot at the moment, I thought I’d run down some guys who could be traded between now and July 31st in an attempt to peer into the future.  Part 1 of the series will focus on some of the players in their contract year.

Barry Bonds is unlikely to be dealt, given that the Giants have pinned most of their offensive hopes on him.  But if, for some reason, the team is out of contention in July and Bonds is looking more awful than usual in the field, a deal to the AL could be in the cards.  Adding Bonds at DH could mean 4-5 extra wins in the second half alone, so I’d expect a big bounty even with his $18MM salary and impending free agency.

We’re all pretty much assuming Jose Contreras will be dealt.  Some say it’d be most prudent for the Sox to wait til spring training and take stock before sending him off to the Mets, Phillies, or wherever else.  On the other hand, if there was ever a time to sell high, it’s right now.

One name I haven’t seen thrown about in trade rumors at all is Greg Maddux.  I assume it’s because he’s over 40 and makes $9MM in 2006, but Mad Dog could be a big help to a contender at the deadline.  I’ve projected a 3.84 ERA and 1.21 WHIP; he’s got plenty left.  Even if the Cubs had to eat a few mil, it’d make more sense to trade Maddux than Jerome Williams.  If the health of Wood, Prior, and Miller works out in their favor the Cubs could have a surplus.

Jason Marquis is projected to post a 4.43 ERA in 200 innings.  He’d be serviceable as rental for the season, and he’s still on the right side of 30.  I’m not sure which teams will be chomping at the bit to give him the three year, $21MM extension he’ll require, but someone will.

Mark Mulder is also under 30, though he’s shown some ugly trends over the past three seasons.  It’ll be interesting to see how Walt Jocketty views Mulder – perhaps Mulder will take the St. Louis discount to keep that top-notch defense behind him?

It seems that Andy Pettitte wouldn’t be dealt by the Astros midseason pretty much no matter what.  Even when the Astros have been counted out they’ve made the playoffs, so it’d be impossible to justify trading Pettitte to the fanbase.

I’m fairly certain the Cubs will sign Juan Pierre to a long-term deal.  Especially if he hits .309 as projected and impresses the old hands with his bunting skills and work ethic.  Politically, Jim Hendry almost has to keep Pierre around in case one of the three pitchers sent to Florida pans out.

Jason Schmidt could be a hot commodity, but, like Bonds, is a long shot to be dealt.  I think the Giants would look for a young bat in return.

More impending free agents and trade candidates to come…

Help Kenny Williams Trade Contreras

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White Sox GM Kenny Williams made a funny comment yesterday in his interview with Daily Herald writer Scot Gregor.  Below is Gregor’s question followed by KW’s answer.

Gregor: Pitchers and catchers report to spring training in three weeks, and you still have six starters (Mark Buehrle, Jose Contreras, Freddy Garcia, Jon Garland, Vazquez and Brandon McCarthy) and only five spots in the rotation. Is it safe to assume one of the starters will be traded before Opening Day?

KW: I’m at the golf course right now, so I’m trying not to think about trades. But I go online sometimes and get plenty of ideas about what I should be doing with the extra starter.

Let me say this: In my mind, there is no such thing as having too much starting pitching. I can remember more than one season when we struggled to find a fifth starter, and that really hurt us.

If anybody out there thinks we’re going to move one of our starting pitchers for less than equal value — for anything less than a guy that can get up on the mound and give us the same results — they’re barking up the wrong tree.

Well, you heard the man.  He goes online (hopefully to MLBTradeRumors.com) for suggestions on what to do with his extra starting pitcher.  (Yes, I realize he was kidding).

Have at it!  Propose a legitimate trade involving Jose Contreras in the comments.  Try your best to make it fair for both teams, all factors considered.  I’m interested to see what y’all can come up with.  Maybe we’ll send the best one to KW, since he kind of almost acknowledged us.

Williams seemed to indicate that he wanted a starter of equal value in return.  Certainly take that into consideration, but I wouldn’t limit the possibilites to starting pitchers.  For example, my proposal would be Contreras for Pat Burrell.  I think the Sox need offense more than starting pitching.

White Sox Never Pursued Prior

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I spoke to my White Sox source today, and he was able to offer up a little bit of information.

Remember this tantalizing tidbit from Gordon Edes’s January 15th article for the Boston Globe?

"Would you believe that the White Sox were hovering on the fringes of the Tejada trade talks, not because of any interest in Tejada but in the hopes that if the Orioles peddled him to the Chicago Cubs for ace Mark Prior, they would have been willing to flip Prior to the crosstown White Sox in a package?"

Not so, according to my source.  The White Sox never had designs to acquire Prior, but they truly did make various offers for Miguel Tejada. 

He also told me that there hasn’t been any hot stove buzz lately involving a Jose Contreras trade, contrary to published reports.

Details On Tejada Negotiations

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Just got a little bit of info from my White Sox source concerning the now deceased White Sox trade for Miguel Tejada.

Word is that the White Sox bowed out late Friday when the Orioles insisted on Brandon McCarthy or Lance Broadway in addition to the other players.  It seems Broadway’s status pick in the 2005 June draft would’ve necessitated his inclusion as a PTBNL.  The White Sox wouldn’t budge, and the deal died.

One other new tidbit is that the Orioles changed gears and attempted to engage the White Sox in an Erik Bedard trade.  It is speculated that Jose Contreras would’ve been involved in such a deal, but that is not confirmed.

White Sox Receive Tejada Offer

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Remember when I decided to start calling Kenny Williams "spunky" based on his Javier Vazquez and Jim Thome trades?  I’m starting to think I should stick with "bold," as cliche as it may be.

As I mentioned earlier on this site, the White Sox submitted two trade proposals for Miguel Tejada with a deadline of December 31st.  Now the White Sox have re-entered the Tejada fray.

A rock-solid source of mine close to the White Sox tells me that the team is "lying in the weeds" and allowing the Mets, Devil Rays, Orioles, and Red Sox to beat each other up with this whole Manny/Tejada 4-way thing.  The White Sox hope that the 4-way deal falls apart because it’s too complicated and too expensive.  Presently, it seems that their wish will be fulfilled.

The Orioles want the Tejada deal done soon, and approached the White Sox yesterday with a proposal.  The Orioles asked for Jose Contreras, Juan Uribe, Ryan Sweeney, and a top pitching prospect.  That unknown prospect may be a sticking point, but it can probably be worked out.  Alex Woodson has been previously mentioned in discussions between the two clubs.  It would be a daring move by Kenny Williams to subtract Uribe and Aaron Rowand after winning a World Series with defense as the team’s strength.

My source tells me to look for an announcement by Friday about Tejada, no matter where he ends up.  The White Sox have their own motivation to wrap things up before the weekend: they’d like to have an announcement that does not conflict with a Bears playoff weekend or the Cubs Convention.

Latest Astros Buzz

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Today we’ve got some Astros info for you to digest.

According to an emailer, Richard Justice recently spoke with Astros GM Tim Purpura on Sports Radio 610.  Here’s what came out of the discussion:

The Astros aren’t expecting much from Jeff Bagwell, surprise surprise.  The main concern is, of course, his inability to throw.  In Brian McTaggart’s article in the Houston Chronicle today, he mentions that Bagwell "will have his shoulder analyzed next week by respected orthopedic surgeon Dr. James Andrews in Birmingham."  Expect Bags to be relegated to pinch-hitting duties given the Preston Wilson signing.  I don’t have anything new on the Astros’ interest in White Sox righthander Jose Contreras, but Willy Taveras could be expendable given Wilson’s ability to play center field.

Purpura spoke to Roger Clemens two days ago at Minute Maid.  Clemens has not cleaned out his locker in at the ballpark.  I still believe that Clemens will return to the Astros in mid-June.

Today in the Baltimore Sun, Jeff Zrebiec and Dan Connolly mention that "The Red Sox, Houston Astros and Chicago Cubs appear to be the leaders in the Tejada sweepstakes." Adam Everett and Brandon Backe are certainly available on the Astros, but it’ll obviously require a lot more than that to get Miguel Tejada.  Brad Lidge won’t be involved in any deal for the shortstop.

I’ll see if I can dig up any additional info on these topics.

Astros Discussing Jose Contreras

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First off, my apologies for the confusion in my last post.  Let’s set the record straight about this Astros/White Sox thing.

My source wasn’t referring to the Astros’ interest in Miguel Tejada, but rather Jose Contreras.  Baltimore likes the righthander, but Houston covets him as well.  The Sox are talking to the Astros currently, but have no interest in Brad Lidge.  Their reasoning:  they believe in the young, cheap Bobby Jenks.  The Sox also have concerns about Lidge’s future health after piling on the innings as well as his impending large salary.  That all makes sense; the Sox have no reason to acquire another closer.

Another clarification: the player the Sox are considering for Contreras is Willy Taveras.  The additional prospects are unknown.  Given the massive salary gap between Jose Contreras and Taveras, this deal would free up cash to be used for reinforcements at the trading deadline.  As mentioned before, the White Sox are willing to go up to a $105MM payroll.

Some more quality tidbits on the White Sox’s interest in Miguel Tejada:

Chicago’s offers are non-negotiable.  If Tejada is traded, the deal will be completed within the next two weeks.  Other interested clubs are still submitting and refining their proposals. 

White Sox Make Offers For Tejada

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A source close to a major sports representation firm has tipped me off to two offers the White Sox currently have on the table for shortstop Miguel Tejada.

Two formal proposals have been given to the Orioles by Sox GM Kenny Williams.  Williams set a drop dead date of December 31st given other clubs’ outstanding offers for Tejada.

Option 1: Jose Contreras, Juan Uribe, and one minor league prospect for Tejada.

Option 2: Brandon McCarthy, Juan Uribe, 20 year-old southpaw Alex Woodson, and another minor leaguer for Tejada.  In this scenario, the White Sox would get cash back from the Orioles in the third and fourth years of Tejada’s contract.

According to Baseball Prospectus’s WARP statistic, which combines offense and defense into a number of wins above a replacement player, Tejada was worth 3.1 more wins than Uribe in 2005.  Contreras was valued at 5.9 wins for ’05.  However, the White Sox can’t start both McCarthy and Contreras, so it’s really not a loss in pitching value for 2006.  Seems to me that the Sox would much prefer Option 1 if the O’s will consider it.

U.S. Cellular inflates right-handed hitters’ home runs by about 30%.  Tejada would stand to tack on about four home runs due to park effects.  A loss of both Juan Uribe and Aaron Rowand would weaken one of the White Sox’s two major strengths from their Championship season: their defense.  Rowand and Uribe were two of baseball’s best defenders at their positions in ’05, and Brian Anderson and Tejada would definitely be a downgrade.  Still, Williams’s offseason moves and the proposed Tejada trades certainly strengthen the club overall for ’06, at least on paper.

White Sox Interested In Blalock?

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In today’s Chicago Tribune, Phil Rogers lays out some options for the White Sox to further bolster their club.  According to Rogers:

"The most transparent scenarios are a starter and Joe Crede to Texas for a package fronted by left-handed-hitting third baseman Hank Blalock (signed for a highly reasonable $13.7 million for the next three years with a $6.2 million option in 2009); a starter and Juan Uribe to Baltimore for Miguel Tejada—not that likely—or a starter to Baltimore for a package of young talent in a deal that makes Tejada happier about staying put.

When Williams trades one of his starters, then judge how the return stacks up against Young, not the starter traded.

Young for Blalock?

Williams’ cell phone ought to be shipped to Cooperstown if he can pull that one off."

While Garland has more of a future ahead of him, Contreras may be easier to trade.  The Cuban is 34 years old, a number in which I don’t have full confidence.  His contract demands won’t be as prohibitive as Garland’s.  Garland is a more verified 26 years of age, so he’ll want a deal twice as long as Contreras’s.  Garland is a year younger than Barry Zito, and may be a comparable pitcher despite Zito’s track record and reputation.  If a 28 year-old injury prone A.J. Burnett is worth five years and $55MM, doesn’t that make Zito and Garland worth even more?

I imagine Zito and Garland could each land six-year deals through free agency.  Their agents will probably start the negotiations at seven years.  Garland could get 6/66 and Zito 6/72.  Any team trading for one of these starters will probably want some sort of contract agreement in place before doing so.  After all, the purpose of acquiring Garland or Zito is mainly to gain an exclusive chance to negotiate before the pitcher hits free agency.

Phil Rogers’s Texas Rangers scenario is a good one, given that GM Jon Daniels at least entertained offering Burnett a huge contract.  The Rangers sorely lack starting pitching depth, and Hank Blalock is very expendable.  Would Jon Garland and his sinker be a good fit pitching the next six years in Texas?  Not really.  Despite a big reduction in his overall home run rate this year, he was still right at league average in that department.  His rate was higher at home, of course, and it would remain high at Ameriquest.

The average groundball to flyball ratio in the American League was 1.59 in 2005.  Garland’s 1.82 mark isn’t anything special despite his sinker.  Garland’s main asset is that he’s durable, making at least 32 starts in each of the last four seasons.  He’s never had the pressure of being anything close to the ace of a staff, and he’s had exactly one above average season.  For Daniels to swap his best trading chip in Blalock for essentially six expensive years of Garland is certainly a risky proposition. 

I can’t agree with Phil Rogers when he says Kenny Williams’s cell phone should go to Cooperstown for a Garland-Blalock trade.  While Blalock is young and powerful, he’s obviously been greatly aided by playing in Ameriquest.  He’d have that same crutch in U.S. Cellular, but is that an improvement over Joe Crede?  Crede was worth one more win than Blalock in 2005, something I hope Kenny Williams is aware of.

A better swap for the Sox might be Jose Contreras for Phillies left fielder Pat Burrell.  Burrell is 29 and probably has a few good seasons left in him.  He knows how to draw walks, and could hit 40 HR with U.S. Cellular as a home park.  Scott Podsednik would look a lot better coming off the bench than starting at a power position.  Burrell has $36.5MM left on his contract over the next three years, so the Phils might have to send over $10MM to make the deal work.  A swap involving Garland and Carl Crawford could also make sense, if the D-Rays think they can compete in 2007.

Jim Thome To The White Sox

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Word from ESPN Radio 1000 in Chicago is that the White Sox are talking to the Phillies about Jim Thome.  Apparently the Sox would acquire Thome for some combination of Aaron Rowand, Jose Contreras, and Brandon McCarthy.  The Phillies would pay the "majority" of Thome’s contract. 

MLBTradeRumors.com is skeptical to say the least.  We haven’t received confirmation yet on which ESPN reporter floated this rumor, but the memory of Bruce Levine announcing an imminent Juan Pierre deal is all too fresh.  As proposed, this is simply way too much value for the White Sox to give up for Thome.

It makes sense for Rowand to be involved – he’s at the peak of his perceived value and the Phillies need a centerfielder.  Scott Podsednik could easily slide over to take Rowand’s place.  However, a healthy Thome as DH vs. Rowand in center field could easily be equal in value in 2006.  We’re talking 5-6 wins from each player.   

While it’s true the White Sox potentially have six starting pitchers, the club would be advised not to depend on anything from Orlando Hernandez.  Shipping off Jose Contreras after his dominant second half (2.91 ERA) probably isn’t going to happen.  Trading a young player with the promise and affordability of Brandon McCarthy seems equally unlikely.  On the other hand, Kenny Williams did deal top prospect Jeremy Reed to Seattle to acquire Freddy Garcia. 

Does the money make sense?  The ESPN report claims that the Phillies would be paying the majority of Thome’s contract.  Thome is due $12.5MM in 2006 and $14MM in 2007, $14MM in 2008, and a $3MM buyout in 2009.  (Wow, now that’s a bad contract).  Would the Phillies really pick up the tab on most of $43.5MM?  I presume we’re talking somewhere around $30MM. 

If so, three years of Thome for $4.5MM annually is a solid gamble for the White Sox.  Considering the way U.S. Cellular inflates home run totals for left-handed hitters, 40 HR could turn into 46 pretty easily.  Rowand has yet to reach free agency and is due $3.25MM in ’06 with a $5MM club option for ’07. 

A trade of Thome and $30MM for Rowand is feasible for the Sox, assuming Thome is healthy.  If the Sox made the ill-advised move to include a starting pitcher, Phillies management could justify the deal.

We’ll keep you posted as details surface about these trade talks.

Thanks to Alex.

MLB Trade Rumors is not affiliated with Major League Baseball, MLB or MLB.com

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