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Olney On Wagner, DeRosa, Betancourt, Wolf

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The free agent rankings are out, so ESPN.com's Buster Olney breaks down the winners and losers. Here are the details from his latest blog post:

  • Billy Wagner is a Type A free agent, so teams will have to surrender a draft pick to sign him if the Red Sox offer arbitration, as expected. This hurts Wagner's value, since he's coming back from Tommy John surgery and teams will hesitate to give up a top pick for an injury risk.
  • Olney wouldn't be surprised to see Mark DeRosa field two and three year offers. The versatile 34-year-old is a Type B free agent, so teams won't have to give up a top pick to sign him.
  • Rafael Betancourt, a Type A free agent, has less leverage with the Rockies than he would have had as a Type B free agent, because few teams would be willing to surrender a top pick to sign the reliever. 
  • Randy Wolf's status as a Type A free agent could chase away some suitors.
  • Other GMs believe the Astros should offer Jose Valverde and LaTroy Hawkins arbitration.
  • If the Giants offer Bengie Molina arbitration, the market for him would diminish.

Astros Rumors: Valverde, Hawkins, Manager

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The Houston Chronicle's Richard Justice has a five-point plan to solve the Houston Astros' problems — or at least to point the team in the right direction. Here are some of his ideas:

  • Bring Jose Valverde and LaTroy Hawkins back to the bullpen.
  • Focus on pitching and defense, which would mean installing players like shortstop Tommy Manzella, second baseman Edwin Maysonet, and catcher Jason Castro (a 2008 first-round pick) into the 2010 starting lineup.
  • Sign a "reliable" free-agent starting pitcher to add to a rotation led by Roy Oswalt and Wandy Rodriguez. Justice's wishlist includes most of the market's biggest names, such as John Lackey, Ben Sheets, and Rich Harden.
  • Hire Jim Fregosi as the new manager. Justice adds that Manny Acta, Bob Melvin, Don Baylor, and Ned Yost would also be good fits for the opening.

Ed Wade On Biggio, Bagwell, Matsui, ‘Pen

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Astros GM Ed Wade told Houston Chronicle readers that he doesn't expect Craig Biggio or Jeff Bagwell to become the team's next manager. Here are the details from Wade's online chat with fans:

  • The Astros are looking for an experienced manager who relates well with players.
  • Wade expects Kaz Matsui to be the team's everyday second baseman next year. 
  • Expect the Astros to be younger next year.
  • Wade says he'd "love" to have LaTroy Hawkins and Jose Valverde back next year, but doesn't say whether he thinks the club has a realistic shot at re-signing either free agent-to-be.
  • The Astros will probably be working with less than the $107MM they spent this year.

Perrotto’s Latest: Vazquez, Valverde, DeRosa, Pavano

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In today's column over at Baseball Prospectus, John Perrotto says nobody has been better at making deadline deals in the previous two seasons than Theo Epstein. I might agree but would love to hear some counter arguments.

As usual, Perrotto has his share of rumors from around the league:

  • The Braves need offense and are considering dealing Javier Vazquez to get it.
  • Don't expect Jose Valverde to return to Houston next season. He plans to test free agency and will likely find a better paycheck elsewhere.
  • The White Sox plan to re-sign Freddy Garcia to be their fifth starter.
  • The Cardinals would like to re-sign Mark DeRosa before he reaches free agency at the end of the season.
  • The Twins are planning an attempt to re-sign Carl Pavano, also a to-be free agent at season's end.
  • If the Nationals can acquire a shortstop in the offseason they would like Cristian Guzman to move to second base.

Astros Unlikely To Be Significant Players in Free Agency

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Richard Justice of The Houston Chronicle writes that the Astros are "unlikely to be significant players in free agency this winter." The team is trying to lower payroll and get younger, something signing free agents generally won't accomplish. Justice does say that the club would like to retain relievers LaTroy Hawkins and Jose Valverde, both of whom will be free agents after this year.

Houston started the season with close to a $103MM payroll according to Cot's, but they could shed $17.75MM by letting Miguel Tejada, Mike Hampton, and Darin Erstad walk as free agents. However, a significant chunk of those savings will probably end up being redistributed to Wandy Rodriguez and Hunter Pence, both of whom should receive big raises in arbitration (Pence will likely qualify as a Super Two).

In their effort to incorporate more youth into their lineup, Justice says we could see third baseman Chris Johnson, shortstop Tommy Manzella, second baseman Edwin Maysonet, and catcher Jason Castro in the Opening Day lineup next year. The team will also probably ask reliever Wesley Wright to come to camp next year prepared to compete for a rotation spot.

Odds And Ends: Sweeney, Padres, Saito

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Some links for the morning…

Jose Valverde Age Discrepancy

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7:42pm: Valverde told the Houston Chronicle's Jose De Jesus Ortiz Wednesday evening that the age discrepancy was out of his hands.  "My (birth year) is 1978," he confirmed. "Go to the Dominican and check it out. It doesn't matter if it's '78 or '79, I'll still be a free agent after this season."

2:42pm: Lisa Gray and I stumbled across an age discrepancy with Astros closer Jose Valverde yesterday.  Some sources had his birth date as July 24th, 1979, while others had it as March 24th, 1978.  The Astros confirmed to me that the latter date is correct; Valverde will be 32 when the 2010 season begins.

Astros GM Ed Wade told MLB.com's Brian McTaggart that the extra year (actually 15 months) "is of no great consequence."  Wade told McTaggart there was a paperwork mistake at some point in Valverde's past.  Wade also brushed it off when Miguel Tejada's two-year age discrepancy came to light in April of '08.  Diamondbacks GM Josh Byrnes told me that his team was not aware of Valverde's 1978 birth date when he traded the reliever to the Astros in December of '07.

It's true that the age discrepancy doesn't affect the Astros; they're unlikely to pony up the cash to re-sign their closer.  They'll still probably offer arbitration and get their draft picks.  But since Valverde presumably seeks a three-year deal for more than $30MM, the age difference may affect him.

Valverde Will Test Free Agent Market

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Astros closer Jose Valverde told MLB.com's Brian McTaggart today that he plans to test the free agent market after the season.  He'd prefer to return to the Astros,  but McTaggart finds Houston unlikely to pony up the cash.  Valverde will come with the added cost of a draft pick, assuming the Astros offer arbitration to the Type A free agent.  The closer noted that aside from the Astros, the Cubs may be in need of a closer.  They seem likely to continue with Carlos Marmol, though.

Valverde, 32 in March, will be the top free agent closer on the market (though there are other quality names).  He sports a 2.00 ERA, 50 strikeouts, and 17 walks in 45 innings this year, missing a good chunk of the season with a calf injury.  Back in January, Valverde and the Astros avoided arbitration and agreed to an $8MM salary for '09. 

Valverde surely expects another raise, perhaps a new deal to the tune of Francisco Rodriguez's three-year, $37MM pact.  The high-water mark for closers is $46-47MM over four years, but Francisco Cordero and Joe Nathan signed their deals in a different economic climate (late 2007/early 2008).  Mariano Rivera, who is on his own plane, also signed that offseason for three years and $45MM.

The Tigers, Braves, Brewers, Nationals, Phillies and Marlins might be hunting for late-inning help this winter.  But which of these clubs would open the checkbook for Valverde?

Astros Will Not Trade Valverde

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The Astros pulled Jose Valverde back off of waivers after another team claimed him, meaning he won't be traded this month, according to Jon Paul Morosi of FOX Sports. There's a small chance the Astros could put him on waivers again if they decide to shed a portion of their closer's $8MM salary, but they would no longer have the right to pull him back. 

Valverde should be a Type A free agent after the season, so the Astros can obtain draft picks if they offer Valverde arbitration. The Astros dealt Ivan Rodriguez earlier in the week, but GM Ed Wade said he doesn't expect to deal more players.

Heyman On Deadline Deals

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Jon Heyman of SI.com believes Roy Halladay will be traded before the end of the month. Here are some teams that could pursue him:

  • The Phillies have the right combination of money, prospects and need to go after Doc.
  • The Rangers probably don't have the money to take on the $14.25MM Halladay makes this year.  
  • It's hard to see the White Sox obtaining Halladay without surrendering Gordon Beckham in the deal. 
  • Heyman considers Beckham as close to untouchable as it gets, along with Neftali Feliz, Derek Holland, Brett Wallace and others.

Heyman lists over 30 trade candidates; here are some highlights:

  • The A's may have to hold onto Matt Holliday and hope for a pair of high draft picks after the season, as Holliday's shown little power recently.
  • The D'Backs aren't impressed by what the Brewers are willing to give up for Doug Davis, so they may try to keep him in Arizona.
  • The offers for Chad Qualls may be too tempting for the D'Backs to ignore.  
  • "Teams will call" about Cliff Lee.  
  • Jose Valverde would be a trade candidate but for one thing: "the 'Stros don't like to sell."

And finally, a note on Pedro Martinez: 

  • Pedro should decide on his future soon. The Phillies are the favorites, followed by the Rangers.  
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