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Juan Pierre

Juan Pierre: $45M/5

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Insanity.  $9M for Pierre is a stretch: he’s not a great defender, he hasn’t posted an OBP above .330 in two years, and he isn’t even a particularly high-percentage basestealer.  As I mentioned earlier, Kenny Lofton had a better 2006.  But, in this market, $9M a year for a leadoff hitter isn’t too crazy–Pierre might well be better than, say, Gary Matthews Jr.

But…five years?  It would certainly appear that Matthews is going to get the money he’s after.  Dave Roberts’s agent probably just upped his demands, too.  Even Lofton ought to get either a two-year deal or a rich one-year contract. 

In other news this evening:
The Marlins swapped Chris Resop to the Angels for Kevin Gregg.
The Mets officially declined Tom Glavine’s option.

Pierre to the Dodgers?

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Rosenthal says Juan Pierre is about to sign with the Dodgers.  Oddly enough, it probably won’t result in an improvement from last year: Kenny Lofton had a very nice season in LA, outperforming Pierre in just about every category except for steals.  The Dodgers do need at least one more outfielder, as only Andre Ethier is much of a certainty, but this is an awfully expensive way to plug that gap.

Rosenthal doesn’t mention money, but a couple of days ago, a report surfaced that the Giants had offered Pierre $30M for 3 years.  That’s awful high if you think Ethier can play center, or if you think Matt Kemp (or any number of other Dodger farmhands) might be ready by 2008.  However, Ned Colletti didn’t shop in the bargain bin last year, and it doesn’t look like he’s going to do so this year, either.

By Jeff Sackmann

The Giants Really Want a Centerfielder

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And you know, if I had just given Steve Finley 429 at-bats, I would too!

Apparently the Giants have offered identical 3-year, $30M deals to Juan Pierre and Gary Matthews Jr.  Both would appear to be a little young to fit in to the Giants clubhouse, but then again, so is Kevin Frandsen, and they haven’t buried him yet.  $10M per year seems to be the market value for Matthews right now, which–to me, anyway–is complete insanity. 

It’s true that Matthews had a fantastic season in Arlington–.313/.371/.495, to be precise–but it’s also true that he was 31, and his career numbers are a much more 4th-OF friendly .263/.336/.419.  It’s always possible that he really didn’t learn how to play baseball at a new level after his 30th birthday, but…$10 million for a guy with a strong possibility to be below league average?  Most amazing to me is this: Rotoworld speculates that Matthews could get some four-year offers.

Pierre may not be worth $10M/year either, but he is a bit younger, and Brian Sabean can’t be deluding himself too much about what he might get.  Pierre has been very consistent, largely injury free, and he’ll probably keep stealing lots of bases through the length of that contract.

In other Giants news: Ray Durham wants $18 million over 2 years, and the Giants "haven’t closed the door" on that.  However, Frandsen has gone crazy in winter ball, so the Giants could give him the starting job and let Durham look elsehwhere.  If they pass on Durham, that makes it more likely they’ll bring back Rich Aurilia; both the Giants and Yankees want Aurilia and are offering multiyear deals.  The deal could be done this weekend.

By Jeff Sackmann

Two Year Offer For Drew?

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Tracy Ringolsby of the Rocky Mountain News has overheard a few possible offers to free agents.

He says that J.D. Drew is "expected to sign a two-year, $30 million deal with Boston."  It makes sense for the Sox to pay an extra $2MM or so annually to keep the years down on this deal.  Meanwhile, in a separate article, Larry LaRue writes, "Boston has offered J.D. Drew a huge contract – and Lou Piniella’s Cubs have matched it."

Ringolsby also notes that the Giants made a pair of three-year, $30MM offers:  one to Juan Pierre and one to Gary Matthews Jr.  The idea is that whoever says yes first gets the deal.  What if both say yes?  I don’t know how that works.  As McCovey Chronicles points out, Pierre doesn’t make a whole lot of sense on a team that already has Randy Winn.

Did you know that according to Bill James, Pierre has a 29% chance at reaching 3,000 hits?  If this causes players like Pierre to be considered for the Hall, I think we need to change the 3,000 hit standard.  Same goes for 500 HRs.

In addition, Brian Sabean is already talking to the agents for Alfonso Soriano and Carlos Lee.  Word from this same article is that the Giants may bid for Kei Igawa and haven’t had significant talks with Ray Durham yet.

CubDumb On Pierre, Wood

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CubDumb has consulted its insiders and uncovered a couple of near-certainties for the Cubs.  (The post begins with a look at the questionable past effects of Gerald Perry, new Cubs hitting coach). 

The first certainty is that Juan Pierre won’t return.  This pleases me, even if it means the Cubs are three pitchers lighter for just one year of service.  Is it just me, or does it seem like teams just aren’t interested in Pierre’s bag of tricks this offseason?  I guess that’s progress.  Perhaps the Cubs will now turn their attention to Dave Roberts or better yet J.D. Drew. 

The second is that Kerry Wood will be back.  C’mon Kerry, give us 60 dominant innings before your arm falls off.

2007 MLB Free Agents: Juan Pierre

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There’s been some talk in the Chicago papers that the Cubs may offer Juan Pierre three years and $24MM this offseason.  Let’s take a closer look at the 29 year-old speedster.

The Cubs acquired Pierre to play center field on December 7th of last year.  Before then, the Cubs flirted with Milton Bradley, Brad Wilkerson, Austin Kearns, and Dave Roberts.  Definitely a mixed bag there knowing what we know now.  I was not a fan of the Pierre acquisition, though the price didn’t seem terribly high to me.  In hindsight, Cubs fans wouldn’t mind having Ricky Nolasco back.

Pierre had an awful start to his Cubs career, hitting just .240/.276/.309 over the season’s first two months.  Something clicked in June, however, as he’s hit .316/.363/.433 since.  Still, Pierre is miscast as a leadoff hitter and perhaps even as a regular.

The point of a leadoff hitter is to get on base, right?  Pierre ranks a woeful 24th in OBP among leadoff hitters with 300 plate appearances this season.  Clunky guys like Kevin Youkilis and Jason Kendall are running circles around Pierre’s OBP.  Speaking of running, that’s often the defense for letting a guy like Pierre lead off.  But when you’re getting nailed on 27% of your steal attempts, you’re not adding much value there.

It’s also well-known that Pierre doesn’t make up for his offensive shortcomings with his center field defense.  His arm is awful and his range is unimpressive.  In short, Pierre would make a decent fourth outfielder.  To pay him anywhere near $8MM annually is a mistake only the Cubs could make.  Baseball Prospectus indicates that he should be paid about half that.   

Cubs fans can only hope another, dumber team swoops in with an offer Pierre can’t refuse.  Matt Murton would be a better option atop the Cubs’ order.  Solid free agent outfielders include David Dellucci, Kenny Lofton, and Dave Roberts.

Fire Sale In Chicago?

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It’s May 28th and the Cubs are now 13.5 games out of first place, 13 games under .500.  The June schedule doesn’t include any pushover matchups (if there is such a thing for this club).  It’s becoming time to shake things up.  Which players are the most likely trade candidates?

How about Kerry Wood?  Yes, he loves Chicago and has a no-trade clause.  But there are a couple of teams in Texas who could use Wood as a backup option if they miss out on Roger Clemens. 

The Rangers are clinging to first place right now and could get Adam Eaton back in July.  Still, if the league figures out John Koronka the second time around, there may be a need for more starting pitching.  Wood makes $11MM and has the huge injury history, but he’d make for an intriguing pickup if he improves over the next month.  Seems to me that a Jason Botts would be plenty given how far Wood’s stock has fallen.

Houston would probably only express a mild interest in the event that Roger Clemens goes to the Yankees.  They could part with Willy Taveras, and then Jim Hendry would have his low-OBP speedster atop the lineup for years to come.

I’ve seen Aramis Ramirez’s name bandied about in the local papers.  Ramirez’s current four-year deal includes a player void option after ’06, built in by agent Paul Kinzer in the event that he has a monster 2006 season.  He’s off to a slow start, but does have an .848 OPS for May.  Even an off-year, resulting in .270-30-90, would be more than enough to top three years and $33MM in the free market.  That’s what’s left on his current deal.  Ramirez only turns 28 this year.  Still, he doesn’t sound like a man who wants to bail out.  One could envision the Angels, Phillies, or Dodgers getting involved if the Cubs decide to shop Ramirez.  He’s probably the team’s most marketable player, Mark Prior included.

Greg Maddux has a handshake agreement that he will not be traded.  Still, he could have some interest in helping the Padres, Giants, Angels, or A’s make a pennant run.  Unfortunately for the Cubs, Maddux’s hot streak came at a time when teams aren’t ready to make deals (April).  Is Maddux hungry for pennant race baseball at all costs, or is he complacent the way Jamie Moyer was last summer?  Funny how the Chicago press was calling for a contract extension for Maddux after his renaissance (one month of excellent pitching). 

Juan Pierre seems very likely to be dealt.  There’s just one little problem: his .231/.268/.286 line.  The speedster hasn’t quite been Rondell White/Yadier Molina bad, but he’s still been awful.  If Pierre can heat up for a month or so the Cubs might be able to get something useful in return.  He would seem to fit in with the Angels or White Sox.  How about Brian Anderson for Pierre? John Mabry better watch his back.

The Cubs will definitely send off Todd Walker at some point this summer.  Countless teams would have interest in the affordable second base/DH candidate.  Role players like Scott Williamson and John Mabry are trade candidates as well.  Despite poor control this season, Williamson could be the most marketable of the three.

The Cubs have a host of additional undesirable to awful type contracts that probably could not be unloaded.  This includes Jacque Jones, Glendon Rusch, and Neifi Perez.  Some might include Bob Howry and Scott Eyre on this list despite their excellent starts.  If the Cubs want to use 2007 to rebuild, the two relievers should be shopped.   

Trade Candidates Part 1

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With the hot stove not all that hot at the moment, I thought I’d run down some guys who could be traded between now and July 31st in an attempt to peer into the future.  Part 1 of the series will focus on some of the players in their contract year.

Barry Bonds is unlikely to be dealt, given that the Giants have pinned most of their offensive hopes on him.  But if, for some reason, the team is out of contention in July and Bonds is looking more awful than usual in the field, a deal to the AL could be in the cards.  Adding Bonds at DH could mean 4-5 extra wins in the second half alone, so I’d expect a big bounty even with his $18MM salary and impending free agency.

We’re all pretty much assuming Jose Contreras will be dealt.  Some say it’d be most prudent for the Sox to wait til spring training and take stock before sending him off to the Mets, Phillies, or wherever else.  On the other hand, if there was ever a time to sell high, it’s right now.

One name I haven’t seen thrown about in trade rumors at all is Greg Maddux.  I assume it’s because he’s over 40 and makes $9MM in 2006, but Mad Dog could be a big help to a contender at the deadline.  I’ve projected a 3.84 ERA and 1.21 WHIP; he’s got plenty left.  Even if the Cubs had to eat a few mil, it’d make more sense to trade Maddux than Jerome Williams.  If the health of Wood, Prior, and Miller works out in their favor the Cubs could have a surplus.

Jason Marquis is projected to post a 4.43 ERA in 200 innings.  He’d be serviceable as rental for the season, and he’s still on the right side of 30.  I’m not sure which teams will be chomping at the bit to give him the three year, $21MM extension he’ll require, but someone will.

Mark Mulder is also under 30, though he’s shown some ugly trends over the past three seasons.  It’ll be interesting to see how Walt Jocketty views Mulder – perhaps Mulder will take the St. Louis discount to keep that top-notch defense behind him?

It seems that Andy Pettitte wouldn’t be dealt by the Astros midseason pretty much no matter what.  Even when the Astros have been counted out they’ve made the playoffs, so it’d be impossible to justify trading Pettitte to the fanbase.

I’m fairly certain the Cubs will sign Juan Pierre to a long-term deal.  Especially if he hits .309 as projected and impresses the old hands with his bunting skills and work ethic.  Politically, Jim Hendry almost has to keep Pierre around in case one of the three pitchers sent to Florida pans out.

Jason Schmidt could be a hot commodity, but, like Bonds, is a long shot to be dealt.  I think the Giants would look for a young bat in return.

More impending free agents and trade candidates to come…

The Price Of Pierre

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You already know how I feel about Juan Pierre.  What’s the deal with the three pitchers the Cubs shipped over to get him?

Renyel Pinto is a 23 year-old southpaw with a plus changeup and 94 mph fastball.  While ranked the Cubs’ 6th best prospect by Baseball America before the 2005 season, he’s now dropped out of the top ten.  If you look at Pinto’s numbers the last couple of years, he’s mastered Double A but can’t crack Triple A.  However, he’s gotten only about 30 innings in Iowa as an opportunity.  Pinto prevents home runs well and strikes people out, but is a bit generous with the walks.

Ricky Nolasco is a 23 year-old righthander with a low 90s sinker and a good curveball.  Nolasco was ranked just 19th among Cubs prospects before the ’05 season, and was upgraded to 7th overall after this performance in Double A this year.  The Cubs pushed him up to Iowa for 40 innings in ’04 and he didn’t fare well.  Nolasco has pretty good control and nice strikeout numbers.  He was to be sent to the Rangers for Rafael Palmeiro in 2003, but Palmeiro vetoed the deal.

Cubs fans might be a little more familiar with Sergio Mitre, as he’s thrown 121 uninspiring innings in the big leagues.  Mitre has looked OK at Iowa, but has been never been able to translate success save for a brilliant 16 inning stretch this year.  He might be able to crack the back end of Florida’s rotation in due time.

To sum it up, the Cubs didn’t really give up any can’t miss prospects in this trade.

Juan Pierre Traded To Cubs

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Well, it’s official – Juan Pierre will be playing center field for the Cubs in 2006.  I reported this deal as done back on November 23rd, and I rightfully caught plenty of flak for it.  So I immediately dialed up Jim Hendry’s personal line and demanded that he deal two of five possible pitchers for Pierre so that I wouldn’t look bad.  Hendry complied, threw in Sergio Mitre, and here we are.  (I’m kidding, obviously).

I’ll discuss Sergio Mitre, Ricky Nolasco, and Renyel Pinto in a separate post.  For now, I want to take a closer look at Juan Pierre and what he "brings to the table."  Cubs fans seem thrilled with this acquisition, so I asked myself, "What exactly does Juan Pierre do well?"

Getting on base

Pierre boasts a .355 career OBP.  In 2005, the average NL CF got on base at a .340 clip.  So Pierre is a tick above average in that department despite all of the cool drag bunts and slap infield hits.  Available CFs who got on base more frequently than 35% of the time last year include Jason Michaels, Kenny Lofton, and Johnny Damon. Brad Wilkerson can be expected to top .355 in 2006, and Milton Bradley will probably come close. 

Baserunning and stealing

Well, once Pierre does get on, he’s a terror on the basepaths.  Right?  In 2005, Pierre was excellent at going from first to third, succeeding 43% of the time (surprisingly, that compares well to the rest of the league).  On the other hand, he only succeeded going from second to home 38% of the time, which is a poor mark.  It’s a small sample (21 attempts), but Chris Speier might want to consider throwing up the stop sign occasionally when Pierre comes his way.

Oh, but let’s not forget the steals.  Man, does this guy steal bases.  He’s averaged 52 steals in his five full seasons.  Still, Pierre’s career success rate at stealing is just 74%.  According to Joe Sheehan of Baseball Prospectus,

"If you’re stealing at less than a 75% success rate, you’re better off never going at all."

Hmmm.  So you’re telling me Baker should never attempt a single stolen base with Pierre?  Something tells me that’s not going to happen.

Defense

Ah, but with his blazing speed, Pierre surely is among the game’s top defenders.  Er, not so much.  Ever heard of Bill James’s Range Factor?  It’s calculated by adding up putouts and assists, multiplying by nine, and dividing by the number of defensive innings played.  Here’s how some regular CFs ranked in 2005 in Range Factor.

Rank Player Range Factor
1 Jeremy Reed 3.05
2 Damon Hollins 2.95
3 Nook Logan 2.93
4 Johnny Damon 2.93
5 Brady Clark 2.85
6 Brad Wilkerson 2.84
11 Milton Bradley 2.68
15 Kenny Lofton 2.53
26 Preston Wilson 2.27
27 Corey Patterson 2.23
28 Juan Pierre 2.21

There’s our man, dead last in the game, well behind several freely available CFs.  I could dig up some more defensive metrics to say the same thing; I won’t bore you with those here.  He’s not a good fielder.

Power

C’mon now, it’s Juan Pierre.  He’s got less power than Neifi Perez.

Durability

Oh, that’s it.  Juan Pierre shows up to work every day, doesn’t get hurt.  I guess that’s worth something.  It kind of reminds me of the blowoff classes I had in college where the teacher would make Attendance 10% of your grade.

Conclusion

Am I missing something?  Juan Pierre is basically a more expensive Scott Podsednik without the defense.  He should probably be a fourth outfielder on most teams.  Color me unimpressed by this trade.

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