Framber Valdez came off the board last night on a three-year, $115MM deal (with deferrals) to pair with Tarik Skubal at the top of Detroit’s rotation. Reporting in the wake of that agreement shed some light on the lefty’s market before he committed to the Tigers.
The Orioles had been frequently connected to Valdez throughout the offseason. They’d certainly benefit from adding a top-of-the-rotation arm alongside Trevor Rogers and Kyle Bradish. Baltimore president of baseball operations Mike Elias has ties to Valdez from his days in the Houston front office. Andy Kostka of The Baltimore Banner and Jon Heyman of The New York Post each suggest that the O’s are still in the rotation market and remain engaged on Zac Gallen, who is arguably the best unsigned free agent.
Like Valdez, Gallen rejected a qualifying offer and is tied to draft compensation. Baltimore would forfeit their third-round pick (#82 overall) if they signed him. Chris Bassitt, Lucas Giolito, Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer are other possibilities if the O’s balk at Gallen’s asking price. None of those pitchers would require a draft penalty. The O’s have a projected luxury tax number of $189MM, as calculated by RosterResource. That’s about $10MM north of where they ended the ’25 season.
Although Baltimore was an obvious fit for Valdez, there were a couple more surprising entrants into the market as his free agency lingered. The Pirates reportedly made a push this week, while ESPN’s Jesse Rogers reports that the Twins were also involved. Minnesota also reportedly jumped into the mix on Freddy Peralta before the Brewers traded him to the Mets.
It’s not known if they were ever serious threats to land each pitcher or simply doing their diligence on available impact arms. A Valdez signing would have been a shock. Ownership has reduced spending. The team and president of baseball operations Derek Falvey parted ways just last week in a curiously timed decision. Minnesota scuttled any plans for a rebuild after onboarding a few minority investors to alleviate some of the franchise’s debts. At the same time, they’ve only made modest additions (most notably Victor Caratini, Josh Bell and Taylor Rogers) to a team that lost the second-most games in the American League and decimated the bullpen with a massive deadline sale.
There’s no indication that the Yankees were involved on Valdez at the end, but they apparently also had some amount of interest earlier in the winter. Jon Heyman of The New York Post writes that the Yanks reviewed the pitcher’s medicals but dropped a potential pursuit after they re-signed Cody Bellinger to a five-year, $162MM deal. That vaulted their competitive balance tax figure around $330MM, and a second splash for Valdez seemed out of their financial zone. The Yankees acquired talented but oft-injured lefty Ryan Weathers in a trade with Miami. Beyond that, it seems they’ll rely mostly on their internal arms to hold down the rotation until Carlos Rodón and Gerrit Cole return.
Framber must feel like the belle of the ball with all of these suitors.
@wade
all it took was +$35 mil per to feel special.
I must be cheap cause 35 dollars would make me feel special most days
@big
It’s a thin line between high-end escorts and Backpage hussys.
You sure 35 cents wouldn’t make you feel special? Lol.
@99
not enough change to make me do anything “strange”.
#bandzwillmakehimdance
#nodiddy
Everyone has a price lol
Over a million dollars a start, nobody is worth that
Yankees stink
The Twins are about to fall into disaster. They are clearly not contenders. Who can build around 4 players? Your bullpen is in shambles, you have little offense, and no rotation behind Lopez and Ryan.
The Twins are going to tear down at the deadline (again).
@Astros
I think the Twins are being pragmatic. They realize that they have 4 starters that are turning 30 next summer and have 2 years of control left. I doubt they want to extend any of them at that age. Braxton is 32 or 33 and has 3 years left. Might as well trade those guys and try for a quick retool and hope you can be a 85-90 win team by 2028.
A very recent article said Falvey felt they should rebuild but Tom Pohlad didn’t agree and Falvey is gone now. It feels like Pohlad is going to be another Arte Moteno with delusions of contending even when they can’t. I agree they should reset…okay rotation, okay offense but they have no bullpen. If they had added earlier in the offseason then they might be okay.
Isn’t that what I’m saying?
I agree with you and responded to Knicks on it. Sorry should have said that. Cheers
Cheers to you too. But I was responding to Knicks. It alerts you as well somehow.
Someone mentioned a few days ago it is hard to track who is responding to who. I would have to agree with them. Cheers
@Astros
I was agreeing with you.
Well for my O’s I’m a bit disappointed that we couldn’t get Valdez. He was pricey with what he signed for but reliable TOR starting pitching is going to be pricey.
Bring in Gallen, or if you opt for one of the lower tier guys (Bassitt,/Gio/Verlander/Scherzer) bump Wells up from relief to starter. Obviously both he and Bradish will have their innings managed, but I think wells has a higher starter potential than Kremer does, even though he’s been very solid at the back end of the rotation.
This is assuming Eflin wont be ready for the start of the season or they will be extra cautious with him. His eventual return could push Wells to the bullpen to help manage his innings.
The best free agent option is off the board. Gallen isn’t a bad fallback plan. I’m not sure who is available if you’re looking to swing a trade for someone that would provide similar in value to Valdez.
Scruff
Gallen doesn’t move the needle much. He’s a 3-4.
All but Kremer have big question marks. Bradish, Eflin, and Wells all coming off major injuries and surgeries. Baz has supposed potential but all results have been bottom half so far. Rogers won’t pitch like Walter Johnson next year-where does he settle? (I think mid rotation is reasonable).
Wells gets hurt every time he goes over 100 IP. The old Sammy Stewart role best suits him. Spot starts, rescue another’s bad start, long man who can also do 1 inning.
Povich can maybe go 1 time thru the lineup. Lit up when he goes further. He’s next up if there’s an injury.
This rotation will hamstring the team.
Maybe they trade for Ryan? But don’t wait for deadline, may be too late. Do now.
Joe Ryan would be a solid option if he is available. Last I read the Twins wanted to keep him around. But you’re definitely right, Gallen doesn’t inspire much. Getting him is certainly better than nothing, but the O’s missed out on both Suarez and Valdez so free agent wise its a bit of a drop off.
They still have the assets to swing a deal for a TOR arm, but at this stage in the off season with pitchers and catchers reporting in less than a week mostly, who is willing to deal that level of pitcher. I hope they can swing a deal but the opportunities you had for said level of pitcher via free agency has certainly passed.
You should’ve offered Slater de Brun, Pick, Boodine, Forret, and Overn for Ryan. Plus another prospect and MLB piece.
Pure conjecture. We have no idea what Elias did behind the scenes. I know he’s as smart and capable as any exec in the game, but he wisely keeps this stuff private.
That’s just not true in the slightest
Scruff – I’m seeing that too, and the new article here this AM positions the Twins in the Gallen market too.
Options are thin outside of a trade, totally agree.
I think for trade certainly Mountcastle, Mayo, O’Neill, and various prospects are fair game. One/more may get a good bullpen arm. If someone wants a Westburg or Holliday which I’ve heard, we’d need TOR who signs extension. Like Skubal….one can dream.
Is he, though? He did a great job turning the Astros around but the jury is still out on the Orioles. The years of tanking gave them a lot of high draft picks, but other than Henderson how many of their prospects have really stood out? As an O’s fan I want to see them do well, but last off-season was an epic failure and this year has been disappointing.
He should be a scouting director.
Ryan would be ideal, and Lopez from the Twins would be another good option. Since they weren’t willing to pay a TOR free agent they’re going to need to part with some of the top-end prospects to get something done. Gallen isn’t the answer.
I agree you should’ve offered de Brun, Forret, and Overn for Lopez.
Woof. Brutally honest.
Imagine him throwing a beam ball at Adley or Big Sam….this dude can kick rocks. How does that look to our young players paying this dude 38 mill with all those Boras client extensions looming on the horizon…
“Beanball”
birdmanrob – does anyone really think he’s going to do that again? Its like how George Brett is known for the Pine Tar Incident and he was never like that any other time in his career. A little salty in a few team vs team incidents, but not totally losing his stuff like he did then.
Nice, sober O’s analysis—a rarity.
If he was. Like 3 years older the yanks would have been all over him
@big
yeah because the Yanks make it a habit of signing pitchers to contracts at the age of 35? except…. they don’t have a SINGLE pitcher in their rotation 35 and older, who they signed when he was much younger at 29..
Gallen has been worse than he was the previous season for three straight years now, with his numbers completely crashing last season. Just because he’s out there doesn’t mean he’s the guy to make a commitment to, especially a multi year one.
Bassitt can consistently give you decent innings without injury concerns. And he was pretty decent coming out of the pen in the playoffs too, so he’s open to doing what he’s asked to do to help a team win. He’s the guy I would go after right now.
I would say they should get Bassitt and Gallen.
Twins look dismal but I like Shelton hire, and expect them to win 75 games… they do need to scoop up a few relievers tho.
They will probably see who’s available at the end of spring roster crunches
The “Twins” didn’t have any baseball debt… that debt was Private debt from the Po’lad family they tried to get some suckers to pay for after having ripped off the Citizens who paid for the stadium…
Probably a typo, Anthony on the Orioles payroll. The Roster resource link says $159, not $189.
RR link says 10 under
That’s the number at which they hit the first luxury tax threshold. Relevant when discussing a $30M/yr potential acquisition.
Huh? Google ai says 244 is the first threshold.
Indeed it is! My bad, that’s how I still read it (seemed low!), so to your OP, not sure what the author meant.
Too may ifs and hopes on this staff. IF Bradish comes back to his old self. IF Rogers can continue to pitch like he did last year. IF they can unlock Baz’ potential. IF they can all stay healthy all year. That’s too many if’s for them to all take place. The odds just aren’t there.
There’s no more TOR arms left, unless they trade for one. Gunnar for Skubal straight up lol
O’s have dough and need a good SP, Tigers are over budget and have extra. How bout Os take Javy Baez 24$ for next 2 off their hands and steal Reese Olson, prospect value/cash to make it even.
For the Orioles, SP rotation dependability is a huge question too, not just level of pitchers.
Kremer is good for 30+ starts at the back end. He’s done that a few years in a row.
Next up on dependability would be Rogers, but no sure bet given he had a recent minor injury and at what level will these starts be? Hoping for 30+ at a #3 level but who knows what we get.
Eflin next but what level of effectiveness? 14 starts last year, 28 and 31 the two previous years. He flashed #2/#3 level in late 2024 but his career body of work isn’t as strong. Coming off surgery.
Then Baz, who had 31 starts last year, but that was his only year with a lot. He missed 2023 with a major injury and only had 14 in 2024. And…at what level.
Then Bradish, who’s had 8 and 6 starts the past two, impacted by a major injury. 30 starts 3 years ago. He can pitch at a #2 level.
Wells had 4 and 3 starts the past 2 years, impacted by injury. 20 in 2023, was shut down, 23 the year before that but barely 100 IP. He breaks down. He’s been mid rotation effective for good stretches. Povich stays healthy but he’s only effective once through the lineup.
The difference was you could have handed the ball to Suarez or Valdez and you have a really good chance at 30+ ace or near ace level starts. Odds are at least one, and probably 2 or 3 of these guys will miss stretches of 2026, further lowering the potential and also straining a not too robust bullpen.
Offense will be under pressure to make up for the rotation much more than you want in a supposed contender. They also have a higher chance of being overmatched in a pitching matchup with the #1’s and many #2’s of the opposition.
Joe Ryan and Pablo Lopez would cost too much. The Twins starter we should target is Simeon Woods Richardson. He’s extremely talented and has looked like a TOR starter at times. He would be a fantastic buy low candidate. His numbers are legit and in my opinion he’s on the verge of a Roger’s type break out. A change of scenery would do a lot for him. We should have traded for SWR instead of Baz. I’m not sure what it would take to land him probably a package along the lines of what we have up for Baz. I’d be ok with signing Gallen, but I think I’d rather sign Bassit and maybe Giolito and hold onto to the draft pick.