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Kodai Senga

Padres Meet With Kodai Senga

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The Padres had a meeting with highly sought-after free agent pitcher Koudai Senga in San Diego yesterday, according to Dennis Lin of The Athletic. He recently met with the Mets in New York, and has been drawing interest from a number of other teams, including the Angels, Red Sox, Rangers, Blue Jays, Mariners, Cubs and Dodgers.

Senga is seeking to make the move from Japan to the US after a sterling season in Nippon Professional Baseball. The right-hander tossed 144 innings of 1.94 ERA ball across 22 starts for the Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks, striking out batters 27.5% of the time and walking them at an 8.6% rate. It’s an ideal platform year for a hurler who has been one Japan’s best for the past decade, and in over eleven seasons he boasts a 2.59 ERA across almost 1,100 innings.

The 29-year-old (30 in January) combines an upper-90s fast ball with a split-finger pitch to great effect, although there have been some concerns raised over his command and breaking pitch. With that being said, his track record in Japan speaks for itself, and it’s not surprising there’s a lengthy line of potential suitors showing interest.

For the Padres, Senga would be a boost to a rotation that already features Yu Darvish, Blake Snell, Joe Musgrove, and the recently extender Nick Martinez. As Lin notes, Senga is close with Darvish and played with both Martinez and reliever Robert Suarez in Japan, so there’s some familiar faces in that pitching corps there that certainly wouldn’t hurt when trying to sell Senga on San Diego.

As Senga is a true free agent after reaching nine years of service time in Japan, his signing won’t require the acquiring team to pay a posting fee to Fukuoka. MLBTR predicted a five-year, $75MM deal for Senga recently. According to RosterResource, the Padres 2023 payroll is already projected to be right around their 2022 mark, although owner Peter Seidler hasn’t been afraid to make a big splash in recent seasons, so it certainly wouldn’t be a surprise to see their payroll increase next year.

Mets Meet With Kodai Senga

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The Mets recently sat down with free agent starter Kodai Senga in New York, reports Will Sammon of the Athletic. Andy Martino of SNY first reported earlier this week that New York and Senga’s camp would sit down.

Senga, 30 in January, recently wrapped up his 11th season in Nippon Professional Baseball. He had a 2.59 ERA in over 1000 career innings at Japan’s highest level. Senga’s coming off a particularly excellent platform campaign, working to a 1.94 ERA through 144 frames with the Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks. He punched out an above-average 27.5% of batters faced against a manageable 8.6% walk rate.

Evaluators have raised some concerns about Senga’s command and breaking ball, but his combination of an upper-90s fastball and a split-finger offering have drawn plenty of praise. Between his excellent NPB performance and quality raw stuff, he figures to be of interest to virtually every team with a rotation need. The right-hander has already found a wide array of interest as he tests the market in preparation for his jump to Major League Baseball. The Mets join the Giants, Red Sox, Rangers, Cubs, Blue Jays, Mariners and Padres as teams known to be involved in his market to some extent.

The Mets figure to cast a wide net in their search for return help, as the starting staff is facing a high degree of possible turnover. Jacob deGrom, Chris Bassitt, Taijuan Walker and swingman Trevor Williams all hit the open market — deGrom and Bassitt after declining qualifying offers. Max Scherzer and Carlos Carrasco are presently the only locks for the season-opening rotation, with David Peterson, Tylor Megill, Joey Lucchesi and José Butto among the depth options who could get a look. New York is sure to retain or add at least two starters (and quite likely three) from outside the organization over the coming months, and they’ve also been tied to former Dodger southpaw Andrew Heaney.

Senga, it bears remembering, is a true free agent after reaching nine years of service time in Japan. Unlike with players made available a year or more early via the posting system, signing Senga will not require an MLB team to provide any kind of financial compensation to the Hawks.

Giants Interested In Kodai Senga

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With the Giants looking for rotation help, it isn’t surprising that the club has joined the increasingly lengthy list of teams considering Kodai Senga.  President of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi discussed and praised Senga with reporters (including John Shea of the San Francisco Chronicle) earlier this week, noting that the Japanese right-hander is “very physically talented” and “we’ve heard great things about” Senga on a personal level.

“For all pitchers, we look not just at the performance but their pitching style and what adjustments they might have to make coming to Major League Baseball….It’s about evaluating and understanding where his market is going to be and also for us to think about how we can help him, if there’s interest, be as good as he can be in the major leagues,” Zaidi said.

There was also an intriguing visual hint of the Giants’ interest on Saturday, as reporter Marc Delucchi (Twitter link) noticed that a mock-up image of Senga in a Giants uniform was briefly posted on Oracle Park’s scoreboard.  That would seem to hint at some kind of recruiting video or perhaps even an in-person visit was taking place as part of San Francisco’s courtship of the 29-year-old hurler.

The Angels, Red Sox, Rangers, Blue Jays, Mariners, Cubs, Dodgers, and Padres have all been linked to Senga’s market, and it’s probably fair to assume that every contender with a rotation need will make a call to Senga’s agent Joel Wolfe.  As per Wolfe’s recent comments to Gordon Wittenmyer of NBC Sports Chicago, Senga is “very open minded” about his move to North America, but “would like to play in a big market with a team that wants to try and win right now.  He has a great deal of interest in being in a big market.”

That criteria would seem to give the Giants an edge, as the team has the Bay Area market behind it, and is only a season removed from a 107-55 record.  While the Giants were only a .500 team in 2022, they are expected to be aggressive in reloading the roster for another run, and the team has plenty of available payroll room to add premium talent.

During Zaidi’s tenure, San Francisco has been relatively conservative when it comes to larger contracts, so some kind of splurge will be necessary to land Senga.  MLBTR projects Senga for a five-year, $75MM deal as he makes the jump from Nippon Professional Baseball to Major League Baseball, with that contract figure reflecting Senga’s age, ability, and what might be required to outbid his many suitors.

Signing Senga would be an immediate way of replacing Carlos Rodon in the Giants’ rotation, though Zaidi has said that the team is also still hoping to bring Rodon back in free agency.  Logan Webb, Alex Cobb, Alex Wood, Anthony DeSclafani, and Jakob Junis comprise the current starting five, yet Wood is coming off a shaky season, DeSclafani an injury-marred season, and the Giants prefer Junis as a long reliever and swingman rather than as a clear-cut starting pitcher.

Red Sox Rumors: Reynolds, Senga, Murphy, Diamondbacks

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The Red Sox are the latest club to show interest in Pirates outfielder Bryan Reynolds, The Boston Globe’s Alex Speier writes.  Reynolds is one of a few names on the trade radar for the Sox early in the offseason, as Speier reports that the Red Sox have looked into the Diamondbacks’ group of left-handed hitting outfielders, and Boston is also expected to again check in with the Athletics about catcher Sean Murphy.

Public defensive metrics were down (-3.2 UZR/150, -7 Outs Above Average, -14 Defensive Runs Saved) on Reynolds’ work in center field in 2022, yet with Enrique Hernandez perhaps lined up anyway as Boston’s top center field choice, the Sox could have an eye on moving Reynolds into a corner outfield spot at Fenway.  His bat should play anywhere, as Reynolds hit .262/.345/.461 with 27 homers over 614 plate appearances with the Pirates last season.  With the exception of the shortened 2020 season, Reynolds has been a decidedly above-average bat in his four years in the majors, even if his center field defense has been more of a mixed bag.

Adding Reynolds would be an ideal solution for a Red Sox team looking for more power in general, and with a specific need in the outfield.  Hernandez, Alex Verdugo, and journeyman Rob Refsnyder line up as the current starting outfield, with unproven prospect Jarren Duran and a few utility options as depth.  If Reynolds was obtained for a corner outfield spot, Refsnyder would likely be pushed to a bench spot; if Reynolds still played center field, the versatile Hernandez might be see more work at second base.  Since Verdugo has also been floated as a potential trade candidate, however, a bigger outfield shake-up could be a possibility.

Corbin Carroll, Daulton Varsho, Alek Thomas, and Jake McCarthy are all left-handed bats primed for regular duty in Arizona, creating a bit of a surplus the D’Backs could use to fill other roster needs.  Thomas and McCarthy are seen as the likeliest to be moved, though it isn’t known which names the Sox might have directly asked about.  None of the quartet are as established as Reynolds, yet all have shown intriguing potential either as prospects or early in their Major League careers.

D’Backs general manager Mike Hazen has stated that his team would want MLB-ready talent for any of the outfielders, yet the asking price for an Arizona outfielder wouldn’t be as cumbersome as the Pirates’ demands for Reynolds, which are known to be enormous.  It would only take one big offer to perhaps change the mind of Pirates GM Ben Cherington (who formerly ran Boston’s front office), and yet roughly half the teams in baseball have been linked to Reynolds over the last year-plus, with no movement on the trade front.  By this point, several pundits have opined that Reynolds won’t be dealt, as the Pirates hope to return to contention before Reynolds hits free agency following the 2025 season.

Murphy is in something of a similar situation, as he is also arb-controlled through the 2025 campaign.  While the A’s are in an earlier point in their latest rebuild and catching prospect Shea Langeliers is waiting in the wings, Oakland is under no direct pressure to move Murphy for anything less than a major trade package.  Speier cites Brayan Bello as the type of top-tier, MLB-ready younger player the Athletics want as the headliner in a Murphy trade, though it isn’t clear if the A’s wanted Bello specifically in any earlier talks between the Red Sox and A’s prior to the trade deadline.  If this was the case, that deal might be a no-go, as Speier writes that “Bello borders on untradeable” from Boston’s perspective.

Speaking of untouchable players, the Red Sox also inquired about Zac Gallen, but the Diamondbacks have told clubs that Gallen isn’t available.  Pitching is another need on Boston’s winter shopping list, and Speier figures the Sox to be among the many suitors for Kodai Senga since they “were among many teams to scout him heavily” in Japan.  The Mariners, Rangers, Blue Jays, Dodgers, Padres, Cubs, and Angels have already been linked to Senga’s market, with MLB Network’s Jon Morosi tweeting earlier today about the Angels’ interest.  Senga is free of his NPB commitments, so an interested Major League team can negotiate with him like any free agent, without the obstacle of the posting system.

Rangers Interested In Top Free Agent Starting Pitchers

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At the GM Meetings in Las Vegas, Rangers general manager Chris Young recently spoke with the media, including Evan Grant of The Dallas Morning News, and said the club is going to explore all areas of the starting pitching market. Jon Heyman of the New York Post mentions some discussions between the Rangers and Jacob deGrom, while Jon Morosi of MLB Network also mentions deGrom, in addition to Carlos Rodon and Kodai Senga.

It’s hardly a surprise that the rotation will be a focus going forward, given that it was an obvious weakness in 2022. Texas starters posted a collective 4.63 ERA this year, placing them 25th in the majors in that regard. They got some decent work from Jon Gray and a career year from veteran Martin Perez, though Perez has now reached free agency and deprived the already-weak rotation of its strongest performer. There’s reportedly mutual interest in a reunion, with he and the club reportedly discussing multi-year pacts. But nothing has been finalized and he has now officially received a $19.65MM qualifying offer.

The club has already made one move to fortify the starting corps, acquiring Jake Odorizzi from Atlanta yesterday. Odorizzi hasn’t been great over the past three years, but he seems plenty capable of taking the ball and providing some decent innings. He had a 4.21 ERA in 2021 and a 4.40 mark in 2022 but got over 100 innings in each of those seasons and 143 in each year from 2014 to 2019.

If the Rangers and Perez can come to an agreement, he would form a solid three-headed veteran core with Gray and Odorizzi. The rotation would have a solid base but would be lacking a true ace. Perez posted a 2.89 ERA in 2022 but was at 4.38 or above in each of the previous eight seasons. Even if he has unlocked a pitch mix that leads to better results, maintaining a 6.5% HR/FB rate will be tough to do and some regression could still be in the cards. Gray dealt with some injuries this year but still made 24 starts and posted a 3.96 ERA with rate stats fairly close to his career marks. Dane Dunning could also be a factor at the back end of the rotation after he put up a 4.46 ERA over 29 starts this year. His health is a bit uncertain after his season was ended by arthroscopic hip surgery, but he can be an option if he’s healthy.

It seems the Rangers are willing to consider another bold strike to complement that group of serviceable pitchers. Last year, they showed they’re not afraid of such moves, giving Corey Seager $325MM over ten years and Marcus Semien $175MM over seven years. This year, it’s possible the big strike comes for an ace to lead the starting staff. That could come in the form a deal for Rodon, whom the club has already been connected to, with deGrom and Senga also being considered.

deGrom, 35 in June, certainly fits the bill of an ace, as he’s arguably the best pitcher alive when healthy. That health hasn’t always been present, especially lately, with deGrom missing over a year from July of 2021 to August of 2022. However, after his return, he showed that he can still be his dominant self, making 11 starts and throwing 64 1/3 innings. His 3.08 ERA was two full runs above what he did prior to his injury shutdown in 2021, but the peripherals were still very similar. His 42.7% strikeout rate and 3.3% walk rate were both still absurdly good and point to more elite results going forward. Given his health concerns and age, it’s possible he will be looking at short-term offers with his annual salaries. MLBTR’s Top 50 Free Agents list dropped yesterday with a prediction of $135MM over three years, which is $45MM per year.

That would certainly be one way for the club to go. Another would be a more traditional contract of greater length but less money per year. MLBTR projected a higher guarantee for Rodon at $140MM, though over a five-year term that would be significantly less on an annual basis, $28MM per year. Senga will likely require even less, predicted for $75 over five years, or $15MM per season. Of course, that would also come with its own kind of risk, given that Senga’s unproven against MLB hitters and not all NPB aces have found similar success after crossing the Pacific.

When talking about such figures, it’s worth taking a look at the club’s payroll situation. Roster Resource currently pegs the Rangers’ 2023 outlay at $122MM. Last year’s Opening Day figure was $142MM, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts, meaning they’re only about $20MM away. If Perez eventually accepts the QO, they’re suddenly even. However, Young has already spoken about how payroll is going to go up and they have been as high as $165MM in previous seasons. Ultimately, exactly how much they have to spend will play a factor in how they address the rotation. If they have, say, $45MM to work with, putting all those eggs into the deGrom basket would be a huge upgrade but wouldn’t leave anything left to address the outfield or bullpen. Regardless of the final number, it will be interesting to see how it plays out as the club looks to gain some serious ground in a competitive AL West.

Latest On Kodai Senga’s Market

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Japanese right-hander Kodai Senga will be looking to sign with an MLB team this winter. He figures to garner plenty of interest based on his track record of success with the Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks. He’s already been connected to the Cubs, while Jon Morosi of MLB Network adds the Blue Jays and Mariners to the mix (Twitter links). Kevin Acee of The San Diego Union-Tribune lists the Padres as interested, while adding that virtually every other team will be as well.

The widespread interest is easy to understand. Just about every team in baseball could use an upgrade in the starting rotation and Senga seems plenty capable of providing that. Turning 30 in January, he already has a years-long track record of success in Japan. Most recently, he tossed 144 innings in 2022 with a 1.94 ERA, 27.5% strikeout rate and 8.6% walk rate.

Adding to the interest will be that Senga is a proper free agent and not subject to the posting system. When players come over from Japan or Korea, they will usually be posted by their NPB or KBO team. The MLB team that signs the player would have to pay a fee to the posting team, which is not a cut of the contract. It’s an additional cost that is not subtracted from what the player is owed. However, the Hawks have a policy against posting their players and thus held onto Senga until their control over his services was exhausted. Going into his final year of control, he signed an extension with the team but one that allowed him the opportunity to opt out and become a proper free agent. That means that whoever signs Senga will not have to pay any extra fees to the Hawks.

The Blue Jays make for a fairly logical Senga suitor, given their starting pitching struggles in 2022. The Jays were able to win 92 games on the year but did so largely on the strength of their lineup and in spite of a lopsided starting rotation. Alek Manoah and Kevin Gausman were excellent and provided the club with a strong one-two punch, but that was also offset by poor performances from José Berríos and Yusei Kikuchi.

In the case of Berríos, he kept his ERA steadily between 3.52 and 4.00 for the five previous seasons before seeing it balloon up to 5.23 in his first full season with Toronto. Kikuchi was up-and-down during his time with the Mariners but posted a 5.19 ERA after signing a three-year deal with the Jays. Mitch White, acquired from the Dodgers in a deadline deal when he had a 3.70 ERA, ended up posting a 7.74 figure in his time with Toronto. After Hyun Jin Ryu required Tommy John surgery, swingman Ross Stripling stepped up and seized a rotation job, finishing the year with a 3.01 ERA in 134 1/3 innings. However, he’s now a free agent, leaving the Jays with a rotation of two solid starters and three question marks.

For the Padres, they also make good sense as a landing spot for Senga since they are seeing two holes open up in their rotation. Both Mike Clevinger and Sean Manaea are now free agents, leaving the club’s rotation with Joe Musgrove, Yu Darvish and Blake Snell. They also subtracted from their depth options at the deadline when MacKenzie Gore was included in the Juan Soto trade. One other wild card is Nick Martinez, who began 2022 in the rotation before getting bumped to the bullpen. He can opt out of his deal and become a free agent though his decision on that matter hasn’t yet been reported publicly.

Darvish and Snell are also set to reach free agency after 2023, leaving Musgrove as potentially the last man standing in 2024. Making a significant addition to the rotation would be sensible for the Padres both in the short term and the long term. They have some internal options to potentially help them out, with Adrian Morejon and Jay Groome on hand. However, Morejon missed most of 2021 due to Tommy John surgery and worked in relief when he returned in 2022. The club is reportedly not giving up on him as a starter just yet, but he will likely have to earn his way into a job by proving his health and effectiveness. Groome has shown a lot of potential in the minors but has yet to make his MLB debut and will also likely have to force his way into the picture.

The Mariners are less of an obvious fit than the other two teams here, as they actually seem to have a rotation surplus at the moment. The acquisition and subsequent extension of Luis Castillo gave them a strong front four, including Robbie Ray, George Kirby and Logan Gilbert. They also have a pair of good options for the final rotation spot in Marco Gonzales and Chris Flexen. Since Flexen was bumped to the bullpen after Castillo came aboard and is now just one year away from free agency, he’s been speculated as a trade candidate. Signing someone like Senga would add to a situation that’s already fairly crowded, though it wouldn’t necessarily be out of character for president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto to make a move that leads to other moves. He didn’t get the nickname “Trader Jerry” for nothing, after all.

Of course, Senga’s market surely isn’t limited to these three teams. As Acee mentioned, just about every club is likely to have some degree of interest in him, the old adage about never having too much pitching getting heavy usage in the offseason and whatnot. The top of the free agent market for starting pitchers will feature aces like Jacob deGrom, Justin Verlander and Carlos Rodon. Those three will surely require massive contracts that will price out some teams, leaving Senga as an attractive option on the next tier.

The Opener: Angels, Senga, Options And QO Deadline

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As MLB’s offseason kicks into gear, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on today:

1. Angels Won’t Trade Ohtani, But What Will They Do?

Few teams around baseball face as much uncertainty this offseason as the Angels do. Owner Arte Moreno is exploring a sale of the team, and rumors of Shohei Ohtani being traded this offseason have swirled practically since the moment the trade deadline passed. Yesterday GM Perry Minasian announced that the team would not be fielding offers on Ohtani and he would remain with the team through Opening Day. With Ohtani set to test the free agent market after the 2023 season, the Angels will no doubt try to remain competitive, but a 73-89 showing in 2022 leaves Anaheim with a lot of work to do this offseason. Minasian notes that multi-year deals are on the table in spite of the club’s recent tendency toward one year agreements in previous offseasons, though it’s fair to wonder if Moreno would make major, long-term additions to a club’s payroll in the months running up to a sale. Starting pitching isn’t quite as big of a need as it has been in previous years due to the emergence of youngsters like Patrick Sandoval and Reid Detmers, but another arm for the middle of the rotation likely ought to still be a priority. Perhaps the biggest need the Angels will have to address this offseason if they want to compete in 2023 is the bullpen, where Ryan Tepera and Aaron Loup disappointed last year, and closer Raisel Iglesias was moved to the Braves at the trade deadline. Almost as important is addressing the infield; Luis Rengifo looked like a serviceable regular in 2022, but both David Fletcher and Jared Walsh struggled in 2023, and Anthony Rendon’s injury woes in recent seasons leave third base up in the air as well. A righty-hitting complement to Walsh and a shortstop-capable bat could be other sensible additions to the Angels offseason shopping list.

2. Senga’s Market Begins To Develop

While the vast majority of free agency is still tied up in their club’s exclusive negotiating window, international free agent Koudai Senga faces no such restrictions, and a potential suitor has already emerged: the Chicago Cubs. NBC Sports Chicago’s Gordon Wittenmeyer talked with Senga’s agent, Joel Wolfe of Wasserman, who noted the Cubs had been in contact with him about Senga and that Cubs right fielder Seiya Suzuki, another Wolfe client, has “loved” his experience in Chicago thus far. Rumors about the Cubs having interest in Senga have percolated for months, and with plenty of space available in the rotation alongside Marcus Stroman, Justin Steele, and Kyle Hendricks, they may be an attractive destination for Senga.

3. Options, Qualifying Offer Deadline Looms

As Mark Polishuk noted in his offseason preview earlier this week, the deadline for option decisions, as well as for teams to extend the Qualifying Offer to their pending free agents, is this Thursday, November 10th. Many option decisions have already been made, with Anthony Rizzo and Jean Segura among those who have most recently hit the free agent market officially. More option decisions remain, however. One particularly interesting example is James Paxton, whose dilemma Anthony Franco discussed yesterday. Anthony also previewed the upcoming QO decisions last week, with the likes of Nathan Eovaldi and Mitch Haniger among the most interesting borderline cases. For a refresher on what draft picks are at stake with regards to the QO, you can check out Tim Dierkes’s post on the matter.

The Opener: World Series, White Sox, Senga

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Welcome to The Opener, our new weekday morning series here at MLBTR!  Nick Deeds will take you through three things to watch around MLB, with our typical hot stove leaning.

As the postseason continues and the baseball world gears up for the offseason, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on today across baseball:

1. The World Series Heads To Philadelphia

The World Series is set to return to Philadelphia for the first time since 2009 tonight, with Noah Syndergaard set to take on Lance McCullers Jr. in Game 3. The series is tied 1-1 after the Phillies managed a comeback from a 5-0 deficit in Game 1 but were unable to do so for a second time in Game 2. With Philadelphia’s pair of aces, Aaron Nola and Zack Wheeler, unlikely to return to the mound before Game 5, the Phillies will have to rely on their offense, a well-rested back of the bullpen, and the boost of playing front of their home crowd to overcome the Astros, who won 19 more regular season games in 2022 than Philadelphia.

2. The White Sox Are The Final Team With A Managerial Vacancy

Following yesterday’s announcement that the Royals have hired Matt Quatraro as manager, their AL Central rival on the south side of Chicago is the final team searching for a manager this season, assuming Astros manager Dusty Baker is indeed asked to return for the 2023 season. Chicago’s search for a skipper who can help the team move past Tony La Russa’s tumultuous second run as the team’s manager has lacked the clarity other managerial searches this offseason have possessed. With one of the few known interviewees in Astros bench coach Joe Espada reportedly out of the running, the only candidates known to have received interviews to this point are Royals bench coach Pedro Grifol, who also interviewed for vacancies in Kansas City and Miami, and former White Sox manager Ozzie Guillen. White Sox GM Rick Hahn noted earlier this month that interim manager Miguel Cairo would be interviewed for the position during his end of season press conference.

3. Kodai Senga Eyes Free Agency

NPB star Kodai Senga has been expected to test international free agency this offseason for months now, and according to Jason Coskrey of The Japan Times, the right-hander has officially filed the necessary paperwork with the Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks to do so. Senga, who will pitch next season at age 30, figures to be one of the more intriguing options in the starting pitching market this offseason. With a phenomenal 1.94 ERA in 2022 and a four pitch mix including a mid-90s fastball and a splitter FanGraphs sees having “bat-missing action”, Senga figures to be given ample opportunity to establish himself in the big leagues as a quality starter, and at a much cheaper cost than the top flight free agent starters such as Carlos Rodon, Jacob deGrom, and Justin Verlander. That cheaper cost is due to the heightened risk in his profile, however; overseas players are rarely guaranteed to see their talents carry over at the same level in the big leagues, and FanGraphs notes that it’s possible Senga may need to pitch in high-leverage relief in the majors due to the relative weakness of his cutter and slider. Still, Senga figures to generate a great deal of interest among pitching-needy teams this offseason, and his free agency should be closely monitored.

Kodai Senga To Trigger Opt-Out And Become Free Agent

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Right-hander Kodai Senga is planning to trigger the opt-out in his contract with the Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks and become a free agent, according to a report from Sankei Sports (Japanese language link). Senga and the club agreed to a five-year extension back in December, though that contract contained an opt-out clause after the first season. Senga will be a free agent and won’t be subject to the MLB-NPB posting system. It was reported in August that Senga planned to pursue MLB opportunities this winter and it now seems he will follow through on those plans.

Senga has been with the Hawks for his entire career thus far, making his first appearance back in 2012. It has been reported for many years that he has desired to make the leap across the Pacific to join MLB, though the Hawks are known for never posting their players. Instead, Senga has had to wait until he accrued nine years of NPB service time, at which point players are allowed to become free agents. While he was one year away from the open market, he agreed to the aforementioned extension, but only with the opt-out provision in place. He earned $5.3MM in 2022 and now has a chance to substantially add to that.

Senga, who will turn 30 in January, already has a track record as one of the best pitchers in Japan in recent years. Over his 11 seasons, he’s thrown 1,089 innings with a 2.59 ERA, 1,252 strikeouts and 414 walks. In 2022, he threw 144 innings with a 1.94 ERA, striking out 156 batters against 49 walks.

A year ago, Eric Longenhagen of FanGraphs wrote that Senga has “exploding” fastball movement as part of a four-pitch mix. The report doesn’t think much of the cutter or slider, with Senga’s splitter being highlighted as his best secondary pitch. Longenhagen notes that Senga has shown the ability to maintain his velocity as a starter and will likely get chances to try that in the majors, though he could also thrive as a two-pitch reliever as a fallback option.

Senga figures to be a popular target for MLB teams and not just for his talents. Players coming from overseas generally have their markets tempered slightly by the fact that they are not proven at the major league level. This year’s crop of free agents will include some elite arms like Jacob deGrom, Justin Verlander and Carlos Rodon, with all of them sure to secure massive paydays. For teams unwilling to shop at the very top of the market, Senga will figure to be an attractive option.

Also, since the Hawks refused to post Senga and held onto him until their club control was completely exhausted, there will be no posting fee to consider. Under the posting system, the signing team has to pay the Japanese club a fee, the value of which is dependent on the size of the contract: 20% of the contract’s first $25MM, 17.5% of the next $25MM and 15% of any dollars thereafter. However, that won’t be an issue at all in the case of Senga, meaning any MLB team that signs him will only have to pay the strict value of the agreed-upon contract.

NPB Pitcher Kodai Senga Expected To Explore MLB Opportunities This Offseason

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Kodai Senga has been one of the better pitchers in Japan over the past decade, and the right-hander could make for an intriguing entrant onto next offseason’s MLB free agent market. Jon Morosi of MLB.com reported last night (Twitter link) that Senga is likely to consider contract offers from major league teams over the winter. That’s not especially surprising, as he’s reportedly sought to make the jump to MLB in the past but been denied that opportunity by his NPB team, the Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks.

Senga is a career-long member of the Hawks, with whom he has spent parts of 11 seasons. He’s tallied a bit more than 1000 innings at Japan’s highest level, pitching to a 2.62 ERA with a very strong 28.3% strikeout rate. The right-hander has a sub-3.00 ERA in each of the past four seasons, including a sterling 2.05 mark across 105 1/3 innings this year. Senga has fanned 28.1% of opponents in 2022 against a fine 8.1% walk rate. Among qualified NPB hurlers, he ranks third in ERA.

Last offseason, Eric Longenhagen of FanGraphs wrote that Senga has a quality four-pitch mix headlined by his fastball and split. Longehagen indicated neither of his breaking pitches (cutter or slider) were likely to be impactful offerings, but he suggested his two top pitches combined with solid control could give him a chance to start in the majors. At the time, Longenhagen placed Senga as his #4 international prospect who might be available in 2023 and beyond (and the #3 player in Japan, behind righties Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Roki Sasaki).

Unlike Yamamoto and Sasaki, both of whom are in their early 20’s, Senga turns 30 years old in January. The 6’0″ hurler won’t be subject to the MLB – NPB posting system by virtue of his exceeding nine years of NPB service time. That allows him to explore international free agency without requiring any form of compensation on the part of major league teams to his NPB employer.

Senga has a fair bit of financial security to fall back upon. He signed a five-year contract with the Hawks last winter that reportedly guaranteed him a $5.3MM salary this season. That pact afforded Senga an opt-out opportunity after 2022 to allow him to explore MLB free agency, but it also means he can stay in a familiar setting on a multi-year deal if he doesn’t believe there’ll be MLB offers to his liking.

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