Dodgers Sign Luis Gonzalez
According to MLB.com, the Dodgers have signed left fielder Luis Gonzalez to a one-year, $7MM deal. This one had been rumored all day.
With the signing, L.A.’s outfield appears set. It features Gonzo in left, Juan Pierre in center, and Andre Ethier in right. Sound good? It’s quite mediocre. Let’s compare the trio to the league averages from 2006.
Left field NL average: .277/.359/.478
Luis Gonzalez: .273/.357/.447
Center field NL average: .264/.335/.418
Juan Pierre: .292/.330/.388
Right field NL average: .268/.345/.453
Andre Ethier: .308/.365/.477
Looking at Ethier’s second half, I’d say there’s a good chance the Dodgers are below average offensively at all three outfield positions in 2007. And it’s not like these guys are Gold Glovers.
Cards Still Looking For Starters
Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch has a roundup this morning of Walt Jocketty’s remaining agenda.
With one starter (Kip Wells) and a second baseman (Adam Kennedy) now in tow, the mission is to find two more starters and an affordable outfielder.
Goold names Jason Schmidt, Jeff Suppan, Jeff Weaver, and Mark Mulder as players whom Jocketty has contacted or will contact soon. As Larry Borowsky of Viva El Birdos has told us, the Cards always target a top flight starter before settling for less (see Burnett, A.J. last year and many more).
The outfielder of choice seems to be Luis Gonzalez, who’s been a speculative Cardinal for what seems like a month now.
Cardinals Tidbits
Several good items from Bernie Miklasz of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch:
- Scott Spiezio is resigned to a 2-year deal.
- Jocketty’s focus seems to be on pitching at the moment: talking about Vincente Padilla, Adam Eaton, and Kip Wells, and trying to bring Jeff Weaver back.
- Also looking for a Mark Mulder-like rotation filler–a nice thought, but I would think that a pre-FA starter would be incredibly pricey in this market.
- Luis Gonzalez and Julio Lugo are unlikely.
By Jeff Sackmann
Luis Gonzalez To Sign With Cardinals?
The St. Louis Post-Dispatch is reporting that Luis Gonzalez is "leaning heavily towards signing a one-year deal with the Cardinals shortly after the market opens" (scroll to the bottom).
If true, the Cardinals’ outfield would be set: Gonzalez in left, Jim Edmonds in center, and Juan Encarnacion in right. Chris Duncan could be expendable, and the only other chance to improve the offense would be second base.
Bucco Blog On Luis Gonzalez
Over at the fine Bucco Blog, the author makes a case for the Pirates to sign Luis Gonzalez and move Jason Bay to right field. The argument is that Gonzo would be a perfect fit for PNC Park and would play better defense in left than Bay. He says:
"Littlefield might propose an incentive laden package to Gonzo.. 3 year deal at $10m with base incentives that could get him another $10m or more. Three years is the deal Gonzo wants and the Pirates are probably one of the few who would be willing to give it to him."
2007 MLB Free Agents: Luis Gonzalez
When we last checked in with future free agent left fielder Luis Gonzalez, he’d been informed by the D’Backs that they didn’t want him back.
Now, Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe has a few interested teams for us:
"Don’t feel bad about Luis Gonzalez‘s Diamondbacks career being over. The Orioles, Tigers, Rangers, and Cubs are already considering him as a DH and/or left fielder for next year."
Word was that Gonzo wanted to stay in the NL, meaning a return to the Cubs might be at the top of the list. The problem? The Cubs already have a left fielder, and he’s having a fine age 24 season.
Matt Murton: .294/.359/.438
Luis Gonzalez: .274/.356/.453
Given that Murton is improving and Gonzalez is on the decline, and that Gonzalez will make significantly more money, the signing wouldn’t make much sense.
If the Cubs really are interested, that should mean one of two things.
1. They plan on using Murton in center field and letting Juan Pierre go (unlikely but not the worst idea in the world if Murton could somehow pull it off on defense).
2. They are considering trading Murton (possible).
If the Cubs want to make a major trade, say involving Miguel Tejada, Murton could be a coveted player.
2007 MLB Free Agents: Luis Gonzalez
It’s been reported in multiple papers that the Diamondbacks will not be offering left fielder Luis Gonzalez a contract for 2007. He’ll join a robust free agent left fielder market this winter.
The average left fielder posts an OPS in the .810-.825 range, while Gonzalez stands at .824 this season. A second half doubles surge, which included a .906 OPS, has brought him up to that mark after a subpar first half in the power department. Baseball Prospectus projects a .266/.355/.463 line from him next year (that’d be an .818 OPS in his age 39 season). Such a performance would justify a one-year deal for $2.5MM, according to BP.
According to an Arizona Republic article, Gonzalez could play for his hometown Devil Rays but probably prefers to remain in the NL. The Cardinals would be a pretty good fit if they chose not to rely on Chris Duncan. The Giants might be another possibility.
Trade Rumor Roundup: 8 Days Left
To begin with, this just isn’t true. With the Kearns deal and probably Soriano trade, the 2006 deadline just can’t be classified as a dud. That honor belongs to 2005 for sure. The trading action never matches the buildup, but this year’s still a good one.
Read Ken Rosenthal’s latest. The White Sox are in the Soriano game, the Rangers have interest in Luis Gonzalez, the Braves could add another reliever, Julio Lugo still might become a Blue Jay, and the Brewers look like sellers. In my opinion, some Brewers besides Carlos Lee that could be unloaded: Geoff Jenkins, Corey Koskie, Brady Clark, and Dan Kolb. Koskie will need to recover quickly from his concussion, however.
Still hearing that the Cubs like Willy Taveras, which would definitely fit their m.o. of players who don’t get on base. Phil Rogers also mentions that Seattle’s Rafael Soriano is being asked about. It would be surprising to see the Mariners deal that kind of young talent.
Tons of great rumors coming from Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe. He’s got a rundown of the Red Sox, all sorts of teams scouting Humberto Sanchez, and more.
Buster Olney mentioned in his blog today that the Astros are among various teams scouting Elmer Dessens. The Astros are also looking at Damaso Marte.
Unfounded rumor department: Could the Dodgers be after Aramis Ramirez? Ramirez has picked a fantastic time to heat up, and L.A. has some top shelf young talent…is there anywhere Julio Lugo could go besides Toronto? How about the Rockies?
Cards Looking For A LF
You can’t help but be a little skeptical that the Cardinals plan to go with Larry Bigbie and So Taguchi as their left fielder all year long. Bigbie’s had a few tolerable years in ’03-’04, but let’s face it: he’s basically Todd Hollandsworth. You want him coming off the bench. Taguchi is in his mid-30s and certainly won’t manage league average production for a left fielder. Not to mention he’ll be needed to back up Jim Edmonds for a signficant amount of time. And third-stringer John Rodriguez may be on the outs.
I did what I always do when I want to dissect the Cardinals – I talked to Larry of Viva El Birdos. Most of the following is culled directly from Larry, who has his finger on the pulse of the team.
About a week ago, Cardinals’ beat writer Matt Leach opined that by the time the playoffs roll around, an impact bat or at least someone else will be starting in left field. According to Larry, other journalists covering the team are on the same page.
I threw out five guys that I thought could fit the bill: Luis Gonzalez, Carlos Lee, Kevin Mench, Ryan Church, and Jay Payton.
Larry considered Mench the frontrunner, saying, "Mench could come over during Spring Training; I
have this feeling a Mench-for-Marquis trade has been sitting there, shrink-wrapped and ready to be run through the bar-code reader, for two or three months. If the Cards decide in the next 2-3 weeks that Ponson-Reyes-Wainwright can cover them, they’ll pull the trigger."
I agree entirely. It’d be a deal that would help both teams, and Jason Botts could probably approximate Mench’s numbers for the Rangers. Botts’s 2005 season in Triple A was roughly the equivalent of a .252/.315/.444 line in the Majors. I have a lot of faith in Reyes, so the only wild card would be Ponson in the fifth spot.
On Gonzo, Larry said: "If they add Gonzalez, it won’t be until mid-season due to his large 2006 salary." That’d be $11.5MM, and don’t forget that Luis has trade veto power. My hunch is that he’d be willing to come to St. Louis if the D’Backs aren’t contending. A very solid candidate to be acquired by the Cards.
Larry rightfully dismissed Payton, Lee, and Church. The Cards don’t really have anything the A’s need for Payton; Lee presents a division rival trade, something that Jocketty hasn’t done for quite some time (perhaps dating back to Fernando Vina). He said that the front office may not see Church as a major improvement over what they have, though we both agree that he would be. Jose Guillen‘s current status doesn’t look too bad, but the Nats will still have a strong need for Church unless Soriano moves to center field.
To throw one more name into the mix, Cardinals Diaspora was researching a possible Craig Wilson trade. In a nutshell, Ryan says that while Wilson seems like a good fit, the Cards may be looking for a lefty and the Pirates may prefer to deal Sean Casey at the deadline. Good read.
There you have it. Granted this is all just educated speculation, but we did unearth the Cards’ interest in A.J. Burnett the last time we put our blogs/heads together.
Luis Gonzalez Trade Possibilities
Nick Piecoro’s article today for the Arizona Republic implied that the Diamondbacks would have a tough decision to make on Luis Gonzalez‘s 2007 option. Now, as a reporter covering the D-Backs, Piecoro has to use a certain amount of tact when discussing Gonzo’s situation. I like Gonzalez as much as the next guy, but there’s no chance Josh Byrnes exercises his $10MM option.
Gonzalez is 38 and is said to have his "elbow and shoulder injuries behind him." He comes out of baseball’s home run era with a 57 HR season under his belt, though he’s never topped 31 in any other season. He’s spent seven seasons in Arizona, hitting .302/.396/.542 over that span. The most similar player over those seven years is definitely Jeff Bagwell, who hit .288/.404/.542 for Houston.
It’s been a hell of a late peak for Gonzalez, and he hopes to find a new home to amass 786 more hits. Unfortunately, PECOTA projects him to be out of baseball by 2008, following a similar career path to his top comparable, Fred Lynn. Would 3,000 hits and 400 HR do the trick for the Hall of Fame considering how lackluster his career was before he joined Arizona? And that he’s never really been considered a dominant player?
Even at his age, Gonzo was the 9th best left fielder in the game last year according to WARP. He had a leg up on guys like Carl Crawford and Carlos Lee. He’ll probably shoot for a contract similar to Moises Alou‘s, something like two years at $15MM. Which teams would be a good fit?
Blue Jays – When Reed Johnson tops your depth chart, you need a left fielder. Though I am a Catalanotto fan.
Twins – An outfield of Hunter, Kubel, and Gonzalez would be formidable. Shannon Stewart‘s contract expires after this season. Lew Ford is best served as a 4th OF, and Rondell White should be DHing full-time. Not that I see the Twins doing this or anything.
Braves – I keep bringing up the Braves as candidates to acquire a left fielder, and Braves fans keep telling me they’re happy with Langerhans and Johnson. Maybe I should start listening to them.
Marlins – I think playing Florida native and good guy Gonzalez in left instead of Chris Aguila or Reggie Abercrombie would be a nice gesture considering this offseason. Then again, I support the notion of getting Josh Willingham some ABs out there to keep him in the lineup.
Cardinals – Is this Bigbie/Taguchi/Rodriguez thing really going to work? Maybe, but Gonzo would be a good fit in that clubhouse.
And that pretty well sums up his market as I see it. It’s a buyer’s market for left fielders, and it should be interesting to see what Byrnes can come up with this summer. Carlos Quentin is begging for a big league job after hitting .301/.422/.520 in Triple A last year.