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Mark Buehrle

Mets Inquire On Buehrle, Lidge

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Dan Graziano of the Newark Star-Ledger writes that the Mets have inquired as to the availability of starter Mark Buehrle as well as reliever Brad Lidge.

According to Graziano, a Buehrle acquisition would allow the Mets to move Jorge Sosa to the bullpen, helping two areas at once.  Apparently Omar Minaya has been a big Buehrle fan for a while.  Something involving Lastings Milledge would make a ton of sense.  Would a Mike Pelfrey or Philip Humber be required as well? 

Kenny Williams and Omar Minaya have matched up a couple times before, when Minaya was GM of the Expos.  The Sox plucked Bartolo Colon and Carl Everett from the Expos in separate deals, sending away Rocky Biddle, Orlando Hernandez, Jon Rauch, and Gary Majewski.  With over a month to spare, it sounds like Williams will sit back and see what offers come to him.  On the other hand, the acquiring team can’t afford to wait.

Graziano says the Mets believe Lidge would be very comfortable working behind Billy Wagner, his former mentor.  The availability of Lidge is still in question however.

Could The Cardinals Acquire Buehrle?

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Larry over at Viva El Birdos breaks down exactly how rare a trade of a pitcher of Mark Buehrle’s caliber would be.  He also compares previous midseason deals for big-name starters to see what the Cardinals or any other team might have to send over to Chicago.

Another marquee pitcher dealt midseason was Randy Johnson in 1998.  While the age 34 season is rarely considered a player’s prime, the Unit didn’t really establish himself until he was 26.  Anyway, that deal required a serious bounty of John Halama, Carlos Guillen, and Freddy Garcia.  Halama had a few useful seasons, Garcia became Seattle’s ace, and Guillen developed into a star.  Guillen didn’t break out until he joined the Tigers in ’04, however. 

Ozzie Shoots Down Trade Talk

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The always quotable Ozzie Guillen spoke out on recent trade rumors involving Jermaine Dye and Mark Buerhle [Chicago Sun-Times]:

”It’s never been talked about,” Guillen said. ”Maybe Kenny has it in his mind, but he’s never said one thing to me about it. I want to go all the way to the end with these guys, see what we can do with these guys.

”I’ll be honest with [the media], I’ll be honest with the fans, I’ll be honest with me. If we get to that point, I’ll be the first one to tell people, ’It’s going to be hard to compete.’ But as long as we feel we can win, we’re going to keep those guys.”

Guillen did emphasize that he believes there’s a certain amount of pressure to make a postseason run this season. Not because of payroll or job-security concerns, but because he doesn’t know how long the window will stay open.

”I’ll be completely honest with you and tell you I don’t know what kind of team we’re going to have next year,” Guillen said. ”We have a lot of guys that are free agents, we have a lot of guys in the minor-league system that are close to coming up.

You have to admire Guillen’s determination to win, however, there might come a point in July when general manager Kenny Williams does come to Guillen with talk of trades.  With both the Cleveland Indians and the Detroit Tigers so far out in front of the rest of the division, even making the Wild Card could prove to be difficult.

Getting some complimentary players via trade to go along with the prospects Guillen mentions might be a way for the White Sox to rebuild quickly after what is sure to be an offseason with a lot of roster turnover.

Tom Goyne is the author of Balls, Sticks, & Stuff, a Phillies-centric site, and maintains the Phloggers’ Pheeds page, a source for the latest commentary from around the "phlogosphere". Recently, he teamed up with his brother to launch Roto Front Office.

Would Buehrle Play For Cubs?

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Every year, writers try to help ignite the Cubs-White Sox rivalry prior to the interleague series.  Back in ’05, Sox pitcher Mark Buehrle was asked if he’d ever sign with the Cubs:

"It depends.  It’s one of those things that if no team in baseball wants me and they do, I’ll go over there and sign. But I have my places that in the back of my mind — I’m not saying Wrigley — there are a couple of cities that if I was a free agent and they offered me, I wouldn’t go there. Even if it came down to however much money, I just wouldn’t feel comfortable going to those places to play."

He didn’t exactly seem open to donning a Cub uniform at that point.  It’s interesting to note that the article indicates that Buehrle might avoid New York, regardless of money.

Has anything changed, two years later?  Not really, but it seems that Buehrle leaves the door open an extra crack now that he may actually depart the White Sox:

"Anything’s possible.  Put it that way. I never say never because I said I’d never throw a no-hitter and that happened. Anything’s possible.  I’m not a big fan of going over to that place.  It would be different. Just with the whole Cubs-Sox rivalry, it’s just so hectic getting over there, tickets and all that stuff."

Still looks like a long shot for Buehrle to become the Cubs’ third southpaw in ’08.  Interestingly, it could become four if Donald Veal comes along.  Realistically, his hometown Cardinals remain the favorite for Buehrle.  If he wants to stay in the midwest, maybe the Reds would become an option. 

Buehrle’s Stock Rising

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Mark Buehrle’s brilliant no-hitter last night still might not be enough to secure him a contract extension from the White Sox.  Phil Rogers of the Chicago Tribune certainly expects him to hit the open market after this season.

For one night at least, he looked like the Buehrle of old.  And the Buehrle of old is worth a truckload of money in the current market.  Buster Olney believes he’s comparable to Barry Zito, and that the Mets and Red Sox could get involved.

Most folks think Buehrle will end up joining his hometown Cardinals, which could involve a small discount.  But it’s still a complete unknown here in April.  We don’t want to jump the gun – Buehrle had a fantastic April in 2006 (2.57 ERA, 0.89 WHIP).  A typical Buehrle season – 230 innings, sub-4 ERA – would put him in line for the best long-term free agent contract for a starter.  That assumes Carlos Zambrano signs.

There are a couple of guys who would make awesome mercenaries for 2008 – John Smoltz and Curt Schilling.  Smoltz probably remains a Brave if the team comes in with a somewhat fair offer, but Schilling could spark a bidding war. 

White Sox Won’t Talk Contract With Future Free Agents

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The White Sox decided Sunday afternoon that there will be no more contract talks.  The declaration surely applies to impending free agents Mark Buehrle, Jermaine Dye, and Tadahito Iguchi.

Assuming Carlos Zambrano signs, Buehrle will hit the free agent market as the youngest starting pitcher.  He’s got a better track record than the somewhat comparable Jason Jennings, but that comes with more mileage.  Buehrle has averaged 221 innings over the past six seasons, while Jennings has averaged 180 over the past five.

Dye may vie for attention among free agent hitters like Adam Dunn, Alex Rodriguez, Andruw Jones, and Bobby Abreu.  Dunn and Abreu have fairly reasonable team options, so there may only be A-Rod and Jones in Dye’s realm.  Since Dye will be 34 heading into the 2008 season, he may sign a three-year deal.  That’d make him the top option for teams looking to keep it under $60MM but add an impact hitter.

Iguchi will be up against Marcus Giles and Luis Castillo, most likely.  He’s the steadiest performer of the three and second base isn’t as deep as last year, so he should have no problems getting around $15MM over three seasons.

The 2008 Sox could use Ryan Sweeney and Josh Fields at the outfield corners.  They’ve stocked up on arms to fill Buehrle’s spot.  I could see the White Sox bringing Iguchi back, but maybe they’d give second base to Pablo Ozuna failing that.

Fallout From Vazquez Extension

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From Jermaine Dye’s point of view, it may have been odd to see the White Sox negotiate a contract extension with Javier Vazquez on Tuesday.  After talking to the club earlier, Dye’s agent told the outfielder that the Sox would not talk contract extension with any player before the end of the season.  The Daily Herald says he might accept less than Carlos Lee’s 6/100 package.  I think the Sox might consider 4/60 but he’s a long shot to re-sign.

And then there’s Mark Buehrle, whose situation is more directly related to Vazquez since both are starters.  It’s pretty clear that Buehrle wants at least four years, and the Sox have their unofficial policy to limit pitcher contracts to three.  Both sides are saying their doors are open.  It’s kind of like being on a job interview when the company asks your salary expectations.  Neither side wants to blink first. 

I know there is going to be some level of outrage/disappointment in Chicago when Buehrle hops over to the Cardinals or some other club after the season, especially if he bounces back to post an ERA around 4.  He was a huge part of the World Series team.  But sentiment should not get in the way of reality.  I think the team’s three-year policy is excellent.  I’m sure they’d bend on it if the right pitcher came along at the right price, but Buehrle isn’t it.

The Sox have Buehrle’s best seasons in the bank, and the price was reasonable.  Locking him up for his age 29-32 seasons as a reward for that isn’t good business.  It’s nothing personal.  Kenny Williams’s limit was probably the 3/30 offer he made last summer.  He was right to draw the line there.

You can question whether the Garcia/McCarthy deals made sense – the Sox are trying to have their cake and eat it too by winning and rebuilding simultaneously.  You have to admire them for trying and for Williams’s foresight.  Re-signing Buehrle or Dye at anything near the market rate just doesn’t make sense.

Buehrle Turned Down Offer Last Year

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Mark Gonzales of the Chicago Tribune reports that White Sox pitcher Mark Buehrle turned down a contract extension worth around $33MM over three years last July.  Buehrle was quoted as having no regrets, but you have to wonder.  Would he take the same deal if the Sox offered it now?  Would the Sox still offer it after a 6.44 second half ERA?

Buehrle’s strikeout rate dipped to a dangerously low 4.32 per nine in ’06.  But the confusing part is that his two worst strikeout rate months were his two best ERA months (April and May).  He was pretty lucky those two months – in April he allowed fewer than 7 hits per nine, and in May he managed a 3.18 ERA with a very high 1.54 WHIP.

June was more Buehrleish – 3.89 ERA, nothing terrible flukey about his peripheral stats.  The wheels really came off in July, as he reeled off five consecutive poor starts.  He was bombed by the Cubs, Red Sox, Yankees, Rangers, and Twins for an 11.48 ERA. Hits and HRs allowed went through the roof. 

Buehrle recovered to post a 4.34 ERA in August with normal peripherals, but two of his six starts came against the Royals.  He was battered around again in September, despite two good efforts against lousy offenses again.

After such a complete collapse, can anything be salvaged for Buehrle?  Can he keep his ERA under five this season and then return to prominence with the Cardinals?  PECOTA calls for 4.83, ZiPS for 4.36, and RotoAuthority for 4.39.  PECOTA would still give Buehrle an Adam Eaton-type contract.

Buehrle Turned Down Offer Last Year

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Mark Gonzales of the Chicago Tribune reports that White Sox pitcher Mark Buehrle turned down a contract extension worth around $33MM over three years last July.  Buehrle was quoted as having no regrets, but you have to wonder.  Would he take the same deal if the Sox offered it now?  Would the Sox still offer it after a 6.44 second half ERA?

Buehrle’s strikeout rate dipped to a dangerously low 4.32 per nine in ’06.  But the confusing part is that his two worst strikeout rate months were his two best ERA months (April and May).  He was pretty lucky those two months – in April he allowed fewer than 7 hits per nine, and in May he managed a 3.18 ERA with a very high 1.54 WHIP.

June was more Buehrleish – 3.89 ERA, nothing terrible flukey about his peripheral stats.  The wheels really came off in July, as he reeled off five consecutive poor starts.  He was bombed by the Cubs, Red Sox, Yankees, Rangers, and Twins for an 11.48 ERA. Hits and HRs allowed went through the roof. 

Buehrle recovered to post a 4.34 ERA in August with normal peripherals, but two of his six starts came against the Royals.  He was battered around again in September, despite two good efforts against lousy offenses again.

After such a complete collapse, can anything be salvaged for Buehrle?  Can he keep his ERA under five this season and then return to prominence with the Cardinals?  PECOTA calls for 4.83, ZiPS for 4.36, and RotoAuthority for 4.39.  PECOTA would still give Buehrle an Adam Eaton-type contract.

Buehrle Expected To Leave White Sox

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At SoxFest yesterday, there was an amusing back-and-forth between Kenny Williams and Mark Buehrle.  While they were in the same room, they exchanged barbs through reporters.

Buehrle feels Williams said directly that the southpaw would not be back with the Sox in ’08.  It seems that Williams alluded to that in a more roundabout way, however.  Bottom line: both parties seem to agree that Buehrle will price himself out of the White Sox’s range.

The lefty needs a major bounce-back season to snag the huge deal he seemed in line for before 2006.  He posted a 6.44 ERA in the second half of ’06.  He’ll probably give the Cardinals a decent hometown discount and eventually work something out with Walt Jocketty.  Still, would he take less than five years and $60MM?

The Cardinals could easily be Buehrle’s third team, as Williams might want to exchange Buehrle for some nice prospects before 2007 ends.  A lot will depend on the development of young pitchers and the team’s place in the standings.

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