Latest Mark Buehrle Trade Rumors
Mark Buehrle is a popular man right now, and I’ve decided to cover today’s trade rumors in a bullet point format.
- Barry Rozner of the Daily Herald thinks the Dodgers would be a fine fit for Buehrle, given the loss of Jason Schmidt and their bevy of top prospects. Given that ten teams are looking at Buehrle and we’ve only confirmed five, talks may already be occurring between Ned Colletti and Kenny Williams.
- Ozzie Guillen tries to defend against detractors: "A lot of people say, ‘Oh, they quit. Oh, they should make an offer to Buehrle.’ They did, I think." The Daily Southtown notes that the offer was a meager three years, $30MM. The Sox made that offer at the height of Buehrle’s ineffectiveness.
- The New York Post says the Mets will only trade for Buehrle if they get a 72-hour window to sign him. Rosenthal said on Friday that that’s not happening. The Mets’ urgency to acquire a starter is related to how Pedro Martinez looks in coming weeks.
- Ken Davidoff of Newsday says that while the Mets and Yankees are confirmed among the ten interested clubs, neither plans to offer "serious prospects" for Buehrle. That seems to mean that Lastings Milledge, Philip Humber, Mike Pelfrey, Joba Chamberlain, and Phil Hughes are out. Davidoff shows that Omar Minaya and Kenny Williams have clearly been talking, and confirms Omar’s interest in Jose Contreras.
- Joel Sherman thinks the Mets are in on Buehrle for two reasons: in case the price surprisingly plummets, and to raise the price for Atlanta.
- Adam Rubin says all veteran Sox pitchers are available – except Jon Garland.
- You may have noticed that Kenny Williams recently issued a nondenial of the Buehrle-to-Boston rumor, saying "Not today." The Red Sox weren’t amused by that, and a deal is not close. The Boston Globe agrees, adding that Boston won’t part with Clay Buchholz or Jacoby Ellsbury. Nonetheless, Troy E. Renck of the Denver Post thinks the Red Sox are the favorite for Buehrle, and they’d sign him to a contract extension.
- Bryan Burwell of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports on chatter that the Cardinals have offered Anthony Reyes, John Rodriguez, and one prospect for Buehrle. Burwell would make the deal, even if that prospect is Bryan Anderson.
- GM Doug Melvin in response to Ken Rosenthal’s Buehrle-to-Brewers rumor: "This is the month for Internet rumors." Damn straight, Doug. Actually, July and December are the big ones. Melvin says he hasn’t talked to Kenny Williams, in reality. Maybe Melvin wouldn’t part with Yovani Gallardo or Ryan Braun for Buehrle, but another prospect has emerged in Manny Parra. Parra tossed a perfect game in Triple A last night.
Yankees Interested In Buehrle, Dye?
According to George King of the New York Post, the White Sox have been scouting Yankee Double A pitchers Ian Kennedy and Joba Chamberlain. King says to "expect the Yankees to be interested" in Mark Buehrle and Jermaine Dye, which is not the same as saying the Yankees have inquired.
Jon Heyman of SI.com has a source saying the White Sox are seeking Kennedy, Chamberlain, or Phil Hughes. Heyman’s source also believes that the trio is unavailable.
My friend and I were trying to figure out how a Dye acquisition would work for New York, assuming Bobby Abreu is not included in the deal. Maybe Dye in left, Hideki Matsui in center, and Abreu stays in right? And then Johnny Damon plays first base or DH? The alternative would be Matsui at first base, but only if Damon is healthy. It seems a long shot.
The Yanks do have room for Buehrle in place of Kei Igawa, though Igawa has earned a second chance. And such an acquisition would shut Phil Hughes out if he were to return in mid-August. All in all I can see the Yankees poking around because the Red Sox are interested, but I don’t see them getting Buehrle or Dye. They could be after a number of other lesser White Sox players.
Meanwhile, the Red Sox are treating Buehrle as a want and not a need. Theo Epstein is in the catbird seat, and my guess is he won’t make a deal if Kenny Williams requires Clay Buchholz. Sean McAdam says Buchholz and Jacoby Ellsbury are "strictly off-limits."
Curt Schilling‘s health is the wild card; if he turns out to have a major problem within the next few weeks the Red Sox could step up their efforts.
Mets After Jose Contreras
The Mets have kicked the tires on Mark Buehrle, but Jose Contreras may be a more likely acquisition according to the Newark Star-Ledger. The Mets would prefer not to trade younger players for a rental, and may turn to Contreras because he’s signed through 2009. I’m sure Kenny Williams would have no problem with that. I think Contreras would handle a return to New York well. Lastings Milledge would be more than enough for Contreras, in my mind.
Dan Graziano’s article also confirms that the Braves and Red Sox have been pushing hard for Buehrle. He says there was "no indication last night that the Yankees were interested in Buehrle." Of course, Boston’s interest could change that.
The Phillies, meanwhile, have inquired on both Dontrelle Willis and Buehrle and found the price unreasonable. They’re going to need to acquire a starter one way or another.
Rosenthal’s Latest – Buehrle To Brewers?
Ken Rosenthal has a new article, and as usual he’s broken several brand new trade rumors. A brief summary:
- Here’s a good one: the Brewers have "kicked the tires" on Mark Buehrle. You can never have too much pitching, I guess. It’s a long shot that Doug Melvin could pull it off without involving Yovani Gallardo or Ryan Braun, and he won’t trade those two. Without either player, the Brewers would pretty much be offering quantity over quality in terms of prospects. My own speculation: Corey Hart might intrigue Kenny Williams, but he’d be hard to part with.
- Rosenthal estimates ten teams are looking at Buehrle. He names the Mets, Braves, Mariners, and Cardinals. Add the Brewers and we’re still five short. The five Rosenthal doesn’t mention could include the Red Sox, Yankees, Marlins, Rockies, Dodgers, and Phillies. Just guessing on the last five.
- The Blue Jays have changed their tune on Troy Glaus – they’ll now listen to offers for him. It is believed Glaus might waive his no-trade clause to play close to home for the Padres, Angels, or Dodgers. Glaus is owed about $5.9MM more this year and $12.75MM in 2008. He also negotiated an $11.25MM player option for ’09 when he was traded to Toronto. Perhaps to agree to a trade he’d want his deal extended through ’09 for $13MM or so. Rosenthal says the package for Glaus would likely involve a young third baseman, like Chase Headley, Brandon Wood, or Andy LaRoche. Such a deal would be hard to ignore for J.P. Ricciardi. Of the three teams mentioned, Ricciardi has only previously dealt with Bill Stoneman (on the Brad Fullmer trade).
- Rosenthal says the Cubs are not involved in a trade for Ken Griffey Jr. The ownership change will prohibit them from taking on his contract. Rosenthal also mentions that the Cubs are having difficulties finding a taker for Jacque Jones.
- The Angels still like Adam Dunn, though I still don’t see how he fits into their roster.
- The prospect going to the Tigers for Mike Maroth won’t be anything special; the point was to unload his $3MM salary.
Red Sox Emerge As Top Buehrle Suitor
Here’s something we didn’t see coming. According to Joe Cowley of the Chicago Sun-Times, the Red Sox have emerged as the frontrunner for southpaw Mark Buehrle. They’ve jumped ahead of the Braves and Mets on the strength of their farm system.
Cowley says talks between Buehrle and the White Sox regarding an extension are basically dead. Now Boston has taken center stage, even sending assistant GM Allard Baird to watch Buehrle’s last start (a typical fine effort from him).
Cowley believes a major motivation for the Red Sox is keeping Buehrle away from the Yankees. The Red Sox would apparently give him a five year extension. Possible targets for Kenny Williams: Clay Buchholz, Michael Bowden, Jacoby Ellsbury, and Jed Lowrie. In my opinion: two of those guys, done deal. Buchholz is arguably the best pitching prospect in the minors, and would make White Sox fans forget about Buehrle fairly quickly.
Williams plans to sit back and listen to all offers first, of course. According to Cowley, at least seven teams have made serious contact.
Rosenthal’s Latest
Ken Rosenthal has a new column up. A summary appears below.
- Rosenthal thinks the Tigers are unlikely to acquire Eric Gagne or Akinori Otsuka, perhaps preferring to look at internal options. That’s a shame, as I think they really need to add someone.
- The White Sox won’t be granting a 72 hour negotiating window if they trade Mark Buehrle. Strictly a rental. That could limit the market for him, but Kenny Williams will come up with at least one quality prospect.
- The Dodgers don’t seem likely to trade for Adam Dunn or Jermaine Dye, but could go after Mark Teixeira. Dye seems most likely to end up in the NL West somehow, but only if he is healthy and hitting.
- Possible Dontrelle Willis suitors: the Rockies or Diamondbacks. They’ve got the young trading chips, and the need in the present day. The Rox could offer Aaron Cook plus prospects, and the D’Backs could try Livan Hernandez and youngsters. If the D’Backs dare offer up Justin Upton, the Marlins would jump. Of course, D-Train needs to be healthy and the Marlins would need to fall out of contention.
- Barry Bonds‘s agent really doesn’t see a trade happening. Well, no one does, but it’s fun to speculate. Rosenthal thinks only the Yankees could accomodate him.
- Aside from the Pirates and Padres, the Astros, Cardinals, and Rangers could go after Milton Bradley.
- Rosenthal has a GM source who thinks the Reds could wait until this winter, exercise Adam Dunn’s $13MM option for ’08, and then trade him. Dunn, however, would gain no-trade protection until June 15, 2008 and then be able to block 10 teams thereafter.
- Troy Glaus isn’t going anywhere. Even if the Jays wanted to trade him, his contract is prohibitive.
- The Indians or Rockies could trade for Octavio Dotel for bullpen depth. Dotel is developing into a fine trading chip for Dayton Moore, just as planned. The Tribe has had interest in Dotel in past offseasons.
Latest From Gammons
The man himself, Peter Gammons, had a blog posting on Saturday that I neglected to mention here.
- Gammons mentions some suitors for Mark Buehrle: the Mets, Cardinals, and Mariners. He draws the Jermaine Dye/Padres connection we have seen in the past.
- Gammons believes the Astros will move one of Brad Lidge, Dan Wheeler, or Chad Qualls. However, that was written before Lidge hit the DL for a strained oblique. Houston would also love to move Morgan Ensberg, but that’s nothing new.
- The Dodgers are looking for a corner infield slugger, but aren’t interested in Troy Glaus or Scott Rolen. Adam Dunn isn’t in the Dodgers’ plans, either. Dunn’s defensive limitations really seem to be hindering a deal. If they are going to give up multiple young future stars, it’s going to take Mark Teixeira. In other words, they’d go all-in.
- Bill Stoneman is "cautiously looking for a bat." Cautious is the name of the game with Stoneman. It’s a seller’s market for power hitters. Imagine what the Marlins could get for Miguel Cabrera.
Stark’s Latest
ESPN’s Jayson Stark has his latest Rumblings and Grumblings column up, and it’s chock full o’ rumors.
- Stark speaks to one NL exec who thinks any Barry Bonds trade rumor is hogwash. That source believes that there would be no market for him. Personally, I don’t buy it. There would only be $8MM or so left on the deal, and as a two-month DH Bonds could make a huge impact on a contender. And he did indicate he’d waive his no-trade clause.
- Word is that the Mets wouldn’t trade Lastings Milledge for an impending free agent – Mark Buehrle included. Milledge could go in a Dontrelle Willis deal though.
- The Braves are seen as a more likely suitor for Buehrle, once he’s truly made available in a week or two. Atlanta won’t settle for a Mike Maroth type. What would the Braves give up for Buehrle? Kenny Williams should pry away Jarrod Saltalamacchia if he can. Otherwise a package involving Brent Lillibridge or Brandon Jones would make sense.
- Meanwhile, the market on Jermaine Dye seems tepid. It would help if he was healthy and hitting. Ah, alliteration.
- Stark debunks the popular Ken Griffey Jr. to Atlanta rumor. He says the Braves aren’t looking for big contract commitments and are more focused on pitching than offense. Rightfully so.
- The Yankees have added Scott Hatteberg to their list of first base targets. As if they needed more OBP.
Should White Sox Break Their Rules For Buehrle?
The White Sox have a rule: no contracts exceeding three years for pitchers. This is because they signed Jaime Navarro for four years before the 1997 season and Navarro was terrible.
Phil Rogers of the Chicago Tribune urges Jerry Reinsdorf to break the rules and give Mark Buehrle a five-year deal. Rogers feels that Buehrle compares to Billy Pierce and Tom Glavine, southpaws who remained successful for their age 29-33 seasons. Baseball Prospectus equates Buehrle with Jim Kaat, who was also better than average at that age. Even #2 comp Jerry Reuss would’ve been a strong buy for his age 29-33 seasons.
Rogers thinks the Sox should offer five years and $75MM, publicly. If Buehrle chooses the free market over that, the team at least made a legitimate, reasonable offer. Even better would be to pull off a four-year agreement. One problem is that Buehrle is riding high on a .264 BABIP, and it’s giving him an artificially low ERA. Regardless, the Sox do not seem likely to pony up that kind of cash for Buehrle. While signing him truly could work out, it’s quite possible Kenny Williams could better allocate that money and fill his spot internally.
There was chatter involving both 1993 expansion teams and Buehrle this morning. Buster Olney quotes a rival GM pondering whether the Marlins could make a surprising play for him. Right now GM Larry Beinfest still thinks his club is a contender. Meanwhile, Mark Kiszla of the Denver Post urges the Rockies to acquire Buehrle as part of a playoff push. It would definitely be an unexpected move, but the Rockies are two games over .500 and only 5.5 out.
A final note on the White Sox: Mark Gonzales reports that scouts from the Dodgers, Mets, Phillies, Orioles, and Devil Rays were in attendance at the White Sox-Marlins game last night. Those scouts could’ve been looking at a number of Sox players. Or perhaps Marlins starter Dontrelle Willis.
White Sox Trade Winds
Tons of articles today about the plans of Kenny Williams and the Chicago White Sox.
Dave van Dyck of the Chicago Tribune speaks of a rumor involving both Mark Buehrle and Jermaine Dye going to the Mets for prospects. This one may have originated on ESPN. Or maybe it’s a contortion of Saturday’s Newark Star-Ledger rumor. When you see a rumor like that, a red flag should go off. Why would Williams trade both in a package deal? Maximum value is extracted with separate deals.
Both van Dyck and Buehrle himself give much credence to this particular trade talk. Buehrle wants to stay, but chances are slim because he’s looking for a five-year contract. He deserves it, but it’s not the White Sox way. Five years, $70MM sounds appropriate. Poor guy’s got a kid coming soon; I’m sure he’d rather not go through this.
Van Dyck also reports that GMs have been "circling Williams like vultures." At least publicly, Williams is saying that he has not yet decided whether to wave the white flag on the 2007 season. The Sox are 10.5 games out in the AL Central and 9.5 games out of the wild card. It would take a miracle. Williams, Ozzie Guillen, and Paul Konerko met yesterday to discuss the current club and came up empty on fresh ideas. If Scott Podsednik and Darin Erstad don’t spark the lineup when they return later this month, the Sox will likely officially give up.
Williams has more to offer than his future free agents (Buehrle, Dye, and Tadahito Iguchi.) He’s also receiving interest in some of his relievers. Perhaps Mike MacDougal or Matt Thornton could be sent packing.