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Mark Ellis

Free Agent Stock Watch: Mark Ellis

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A’s second baseman Mark Ellis might be the affordable alternative to Orlando Hudson next winter.  In September of last year, the A’s chose to exercise Ellis’ $5MM option for ’08.

Ellis, 30, was ranked as the fourth-best defensive second baseman by the Fielding Bible’s panel of experts, behind Aaron Hill, Hudson, and Brandon Phillips.  The market might undervalue second base defense – Baseball Prospectus’ PECOTA projection system values Ellis at about $30MM over the 2009-11 seasons.  He seems unlikely to become a $10MM a year player.

Ellis also has offensive value.  He’s good for a .330 OBP and .400 SLG, which is at least league average for the position.  And he is capable of more power, having hit 19 home runs last year.

Ellis seems likely to snag a contract of three years at $6-7MM per season. Sure beats Hudson’s asking price.  Ellis just missed Type A classification last winter; I think he’ll reach it this time (here’s a refresher on the stats used for the Elias rankings).  Because of the likely Type A draft pick compensation, I can see him playing out the string in ’08 with the A’s.

Rosenthal’s Latest: Thames, Konerko, Ellis, Atkins

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Ken Rosenthal has a new column up; let’s take a look.

  • Rosenthal dissects the outfield options for the Mets, many of the names we’ve been speculating.  He notes that the Mets’ talks for Marcus Thames fizzled during the Winter Meetings.
  • He says Paul Konerko "remains quietly available," and expresses the opinion that the Mets or Yankees could both use him.  Rosenthal believes Chicago’s biggest need is starting pitching.
  • Rosenthal speculates that six years at $18MM per might be the Rockies’ limit for Matt Holliday.  Will the Scott Boras client demand full market value?  Also, Colorado doesn’t seem to have any plans to lock up Garrett Atkins.
  • Signing Mark Ellis to an extension rather than trading him is a possibility for the A’s.  Three or four years at $5MM per would be the going rate.
  • Though Dylan Hernandez wrote that the Dodgers "don’t appear to be interested in Brandon Inge," Rosenthal says they’re "indeed intrigued."

A’s Not Interested In Pierre

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11:50am: Slusser says A’s sources are thoroughly denying this rumor.  It was fun while it lasted!  She is also skeptical of the Mark Ellis rumblings.

8:01am: There’s a headline I didn’t expect to write, given that the Dodgers’ Juan Pierre comes with a $36.5MM commitment over the next four years.  Susan Slusser reports that the Athletics have inquired on him, proof that they may be looking to acquire a veteran center fielder.

It doesn’t make a whole lot of sense on the surface.  Either the A’s would want the Dodgers to absorb a significant portion of the money, or they’d like to pass back their own questionable contract.  Front row center would be Eric Chavez, owed $37MM over the next three seasons.  Chavez’s ten and five no-trade rights haven’t kicked in yet, and the Dodgers aren’t among the teams on his current limited clause.   The oft-injured Chavez isn’t expected to be ready for Opening Day.

White Sox Interested In Mark Ellis

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About a week ago, I speculated that the White Sox could go after Oakland second baseman Mark Ellis if their in-house options don’t work out.  Billy Beane and Kenny Williams have a great relationship.  Today, Baseball Prospectus’ John Perrotto says the White Sox reportedly have interest in Ellis.

If the White Sox are pushing all-in for ’08, Ellis makes a lot of sense.  The Sox have interesting candidates for second base, but none who could be expected to post a .775 OPS with Gold Glove caliber defense as Ellis can.  The 30 year-old will earn $5MM this year before reaching free agency for the first time. The White Sox don’t have much in the farm system, but the two clubs could still work something out.  It would have to be a solid return, as Ellis has a decent shot at Type A status after the season.

Slusser On The Dan Haren Trade

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Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle was recently named Rumor Royalty for the A’s.  She answered a few questions for MLBTR for the series.

MLBTR: Some have called Billy Beane’s return on Dan Haren "quantity over quality."  Do you agree?  What is your opinion on the Haren haul?

Slusser: My understanding is that the A’s felt that Arizona might be the best match all along for Haren and that they received pretty much exactly what they asked for, so clearly these are prospects the A’s valued highly, Carlos Gonzalez and Brett Anderson in particular. Maybe there’s some belief the A’s should have gotten one of the Diamondbacks’ young big-leaguers, but that was never on the table. I’m not sure they would have done better elsewhere, and they got some quality and certainly quantity – which isn’t a bad thing. Mark Ellis was a throw-in in the Damon deal, essentially; no one really noticed him at the time. He turned out to be the most valuable piece, long-term.

Rosenthal’s Latest: Feliz, Ellis, Lohse

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Ken Rosenthal checks in with a new column of hot stove material.

  • Rosenthal says some suitors are popping up for third baseman Pedro Feliz: the Dodgers, Brewers, Phillies, and Giants.  Phillies Assistant GM Ruben Amaro Jr. confirmed interest today in an MLB.com chat.  Rosenthal admits that the Dodgers don’t seem like a great fit.  He says Bill Hall would have to be traded to make room for Feliz, though Tom Haudricourt implied today that Hall would stay put.  It was said Wednesday that the Giants’ talks with Feliz were stalling over his three-year demand.
  • Rosenthal suggests Mark Ellis would be a nice fit for Colorado, though keep in mind that the San Francisco Chronicle’s Susan Slusser told us that he was the best bet among veterans to remain with Oakland for 2008.  The Rockies’ current plan is to go with Jayson Nix and keep Marcus Giles around as another option.  I’d be surprised if either pans out.
  • Instead of the four or even five-year demands we were hearing about for Kyle Lohse, Rosenthal says three years with a vesting option for the fourth would now be acceptable.  He believes Lohse’s salary could near $12MM.  Lohse recently said he’s down to about three suitors.
  • Rosenthal still expects the A’s to sign a free agent outfielder, with possible target Mike Cameron headed to Milwaukee.  Take a look at our newly updated free agent list to see who’s out there.

Slusser On Blanton/Street/Ellis Trade Possibilities

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Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle was recently named Rumor Royalty for the A’s.  As part of the feature, I asked her a few questions.

MLBTR: It seems Joe Blanton is a hot commodity, but we’re not hearing much about Huston Street or Mark Ellis. Do you expect any of these three to be with the team on Opening Day?

Slusser: I think Blanton gets moved by the trading deadline, at the latest, but probably before then. Street opens the season with the team but potentially could get moved by the deadline if a contender were to lose a closer, but overall, he’s less likely than Blanton to get dealt – he’s three years younger and, coming off an arm injury, he’s not going to bring back as much. Ellis has one year left on his deal, so wouldn’t bring a ton in return, plus he’s a great guy to have as a role model for young players. Clearly, no one is untouchable at this point, but of all the A’s more veteran guys, he’s the best bet to be around all year.

A’s Exercise 2008 Option On Mark Ellis

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30 year-old second baseman Mark Ellis has had a solid season, hitting .273/.333/.440 with 19 HR in 568 ABs.  He’s generally regarded as a fine defender.  Today, the A’s exercised their $5MM club option on the second baseman for the 2008 season.

It’s a smart move; the market seems to continually undervalue this position (Brian Roberts signed for $14.3MM over two years).  PECOTA actually figures Ellis to be worth a surprising $13.4MM in ’08, with much of that value coming from his defense.

Billy Beane may still shop Ellis this winter.  Baseball Prospectus’s Kevin Goldstein feels that the club wouldn’t lose much in switching to 25 year-old prospect Kevin Melillo.  Ellis is locked in at a reasonable price and is better than any free agent second baseman.  The Mets, Astros, or Rockies could be possible fits this winter.

Rumor Roundup

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Another day, another rumor roundup.  Let’s throw everything fresh into the mill.

The Orioles are thinking about taking on one of Philly’s huge outfielder contracts, for some reason.  I guess this could help next year’s push for third place.  Baltimore is one of baseball’s most baffling teams to me.  Abreu rumors have been floating around the Orioles since at least November.

The Cubs and Yankees may have something cooking, with Scott Williamson the likely candidate to be dealt.  If the reliever market is really so inflated, why don’t the Cubs trade Howry and Eyre?

The Pirates are offering up all sorts of non-difference makers, but Mike Gonzalez could actually get them something decent.  The 28 year-old southpaw has a 2.27 ERA in 39 innings this season.  Fantay leaguers should start thinking about Matt Capps as his successor.

Trade rumor All-Star Ken Rosenthal is getting into the game more lately, with a full plate of whisperings posted an hour ago.  Jose Vidro could become a Giant, and the D’Backs would love to trade Shawn Green (of course).

Unfounded rumors: Billy Beane may be shopping Mark Ellis and Jason Windsor, with possible interest in Brian Roberts…the Angels could be after David Dellucci…teams are calling the Mets about Alay Soler…Dallas McPherson is definitely on the block…there’s a decent chance Jon Lieber ends up a Yankee…the Mets and Nats are still talking about Livan Hernandez.

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