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Baseball Blogs Weigh In: Papelbon, Fielder, Hamels

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Last year, in his final year prior to arbitration eligibility, Ryan Howard was renewed for $900K. This was about twice what the Phillies were required to pay Howard, but significantly less than the reigning MVP thought he deserved. Of course, this year that number has been used as a measuring stick by several young stars that have yet to reach arbitration and are subject to automatic renewals from their clubs. It seems that this year, more than years past, players are voicing their displeasure about the automatic renewals. Prince Fielder is displeased at being renewed for $670K, or about 50% more than what the Brewers were required to pay.  Jonathan Papelbon has stated that he wants the same $900K that the Phillies gave Howard, and said he would not agree to anything less.  Cole Hamels called the $500K that the Phillies gave him a "low blow" compared to the $750K he was asking for. At the other end of the spectrum is B.J. Upton, who was automatically renewed at $10K less than what he made in 2007, despite hitting .300-24-82 with 22 steals last year. Upton made it clear that it was a "non-issue" and it will not impact future negotiations. The stances made by these players has many fans up in arms on both sides of the issue. Lets take a look at what is being written in the blogospere.

If there is a topic you would like to see covered in "Baseball Blogs Weigh In" please let me know HERE.

  • Red Sox News understands why Papelbon is frustrated but notes there is no real incentive for the Red Sox to give him a long-term deal at this point noting that Papelbon is only one year removed from a season-ending shoulder ailment.
  • Sox and Pinstripes urges the Red Sox to follow the lead of the Rockies and sign Papelbon to a long-term contract.
  • Matt Watson of AOL Fanhouse notes that Papelbon may actually be costing himself money down the road if the Red Sox, one of the richest teams in baseball, decide not to give him a long-term deal and let him bolt when he becomes a free agent.
  • Beer Leaguer is irked by the recent comments of Hamels, but is not surprised as this seems to be par for the course with the young pitcher. They wonder if being a member of the Phillies is important to Hamels.
  • The 700 Level notes in the case of Hamels that it is easy for the fans to side with the players in these situations when it is not their money and they are worried about losing talent down the road, but feels this is the status quo in baseball.
  • Bugs & Cranks feels the extra $250K for Hamels would have been a small price to pay just to keep this story out of the papers.
  • Brewers Bar is worried that Fielder is just the latest puppet for Scott Boras but also thinks the Brewers could have avoided future headaches by giving Fielder the same deal ($900K) that Howard received last year.
  • The Brewer Nation wonders if Fielder should really be upset over being renewed automoatically.
  • Baseball Musings warns the Brewers that upsetting Fielder could end up the same way Barry Bonds did in Pittsburgh.
  • Swing And A Miss feels that this increase in recent bitterness towards automatic renewals is less about money and more about players feeling they deserve "respect."

Cork Gaines writes for Rays Index and can be reached here.

Fielder Not Happy With Renewal

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3:28pm: Fielder gets $670K, to be exact.  Doug Melvin was surprised at Prince’s public displeasure.

1:46pm: Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel reports that Prince Fielder is not pleased with his contract renewal, executed this morning.

Rumored to be in the $650,000 range, Fielder’s agent, Scott Boras, indicated his client’s displeasure. Ryan Howard’s $900,000 contract for 2007 was cited as the figure the first baseman hoped to fetch for the season.  Fielder made $415,000 last season.

According to Haudricourt, the Brewers used a formula they go by for players with zero to three years experience, a formula which they also used to renew the 2008 contracts for Ryan Braun and Corey Hart.  While the amount of Hart’s renewal is unknown, Braun’s contract was renewed at $455,000. Haudricourt goes on to conjecture that this morning’s renewal has hurt the Brewers’ chance of negotiating a multi-year deal with Fielder before he is arbitration-eligible next winter.

Haudricourt has predicted that Fielder will pull roughly $10MM if his case goes to arbitration, in light of Howard’s recent arbitration victory.

Upsetting the youngest player to reach 50 HRs seems like an unwise decision on the Brewers’ part.  It would be nice to lock up a player of Fielder’s talent long-term, but it seems the Brewers have made that prospect less likely.

Posted by Matt Birt

Ryan Howard Fallout

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Ryan Howard winning a $10MM salary yesterday was kind of a big deal.  Let’s examine this first-year arbitration record.

  • A source of Jayson Stark’s thinks the Phillies would’ve won had they submitted above Miguel Cabrera’s $7.4MM.  Seems that even slightly above would’ve done it, because then Howard losing would’ve still set a record.
  • Tom Haudricourt talks about how Prince Fielder is now in line for the same $10MM for his ’09 salary.  And he doesn’t see Scott Boras relenting and doing a multiyear deal.  Stark adds Ryan Braun, Ryan Zimmerman, and Hanley Ramirez as other young stars who will be affected.  Zimmerman, arbitration-eligible after ’08, will be renewed for ’07.
  • It doesn’t sound like the Phillies will sign Howard long-term, in part because there is no precedent.  There is talk of $200MM, something no one expects of the Phils.  On the plus side, Howard is theirs for the 2008-11 seasons.  They may have to keep giving him record-breaking salaries though.  A trade is a strong option before he hits free agency, but that’s a ways off.
  • Jim Salisbury thinks Howard’s win might result in another monster year.  He expects the Phils to eventually at least talk about a multiyear deal with Howard (maybe once the sting wears off).

Ryan Howard Wins Case

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THURSDAY, 9:07am: Victory for the players!  Howard gets his $10MM.   It’s a first-year arbitration record salary.  As Keith Law has pointed out – "the effect of this loss is cumulative" for the Phillies.  Another effect will be on Prince Fielder’s 2009 salary.

WEDNESDAY, 9:31am:MLB.com’s Ken Mandel says Phillies’ assistant GM Ruben Amaro Jr. met with Ryan Howard’s agent Casey Close minutes before the player’s arbitration hearing.  They looked into a last-minute agreement but it could not be done.  The hearing began at 8:30am CST; $3MM hangs in the balance.  We should know within a day.

Players are 0-5 in hearings so far.  But as we discussed, that’s not terribly unexpected.  Jim Salisbury has a cool inside look at arbitration hearings (hat tip to ShysterBall).  Tom Gordon talks about his experience here.  Also, Jon Heyman takes a look at Chien Ming Wang’s team’s losing argument.

Astros Win Loretta Case

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Arbiters ruled in favor of the Astros over Mark Loretta today, saving the team $2.15MM.  I guess the 20% pay cut thing doesn’t apply here.  With the Jose Valverde savings, that makes $3.65MM for Houston.  That’s probably right around what Shawn Chacon will get. 

Three hearings remain undecided; the players will probably snag at least one victory in the cases of Ryan Howard, Oliver Perez, and Francisco Rodriguez.  Keith Law explains again why the Phils paying Howard more than they have to does not make sense.

Historically teams have won 57.7% of cases.  So we might’ve expected the teams to be 3-2 instead of 5-0 this year but it’s not exactly a huge upset.

Odds and Ends: Perez, Jones, Howard, Burnett

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Let’s round up today’s linkage.

  • No more long-term discussions with Oliver Perez and the Mets.
  • Andruw Jones already wants to talk extension with the Dodgers.
  • The Cardinals are not likely to make anymore acquisitions.  In my view the team has question marks in right field, the middle infield, and the rotation.  Here’s a look at their MLB.com depth chart.  By the way, could Ryan Franklin be a league average starter?  They could try it if the current options don’t pan out.
  • Jim Salisbury thinks the Ryan Howard contract situation is a nonstory.  I think this is partially because (and I hope this doesn’t sound condescending) most fans do not understand the arbitration process.  Anyway Salisbury’s source says the Phillies would match Chase Utley’s seven-year, $85MM deal and might approach $100MM.  He says Howard may want "significantly more."
  • Ivan Rodriguez would like to play beyond the 2008 season and retire a Tiger.  If the Tigers can’t find a taker for Brandon Inge this year, he could be their starting catcher in ’09.
  • Carl Pavano doesn’t seem too popular in the Yankees’ clubhouse.
  • J.P. Ricciardi does not plan to do an extension during the season with A.J. Burnett.  I think Burnett will stay healthy enough to top the two years, $24MM he could get if he does not opt out.

Stark: Howard Not Likely To Accept Deal Similar To Pujols

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In a recent blog post, Jayson Stark notes that everybody should be paying close attention to the Ryan Howard arbitration case and speculates that Howard and the Phillies are much farther apart that the $3MM difference in their arbitration numbers. In fact, the distance between the two sides can be measured as the difference between Albert Pujols and Alex Rodriguez.

Stark says:

The Phillies renewed Howard at $900,000 last year–precisely the same amount Pujols got from the Cardinals the year before he was eligible for arbitration. Next up, the Phillies will no doubt offer Howard a long-term deal that mirrors the seven-year, $100 million contract Pujols signed with the Cardinals in his first year of arbitration eligibility.

That might sound reasonable from afar. But there is no chance –zero–that the reaction to that offer…is going to sound anything like: Where do we sign?

A-Rod is more what this particular family has in mind.

The $7MM arbitration figure offered by the Phillies is the same amount Pujols made in the first year of his contract extension (his first arbitration-eligible season). The biggest argument against the Pujols comparison is that the Cardinals signed their young record-breaking slugger to a 7-year, $100MM contract in 2004, and there has been an explosion in baseball revenue in the last four years. The Phillies would argue that Howard’s numbers, while historic, are not equal to what Pujols accomplished in his first three seasons. The Phillies appear to be trying to balance performance against inflation.

Stark does not go so far as to say that Howard is seeking $250MM, but does speculate that it would take seven years and at least $150MM. If Stark is right, and the two sides cannot work out an agreement prior to the arbitration hearing, this could get ugly.

By Cork Gaines

Ryan Howard and Arbitration Comparables

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ESPN’s Keith Law has some good info up on his personal blog. I have always wondered about this stuff.  In the post, Law discusses how little sense it makes for the Phillies to pay Ryan Howard more than his service time calls for.  But also in the comments Law explains which players Howard’s agent can compare him to for an arbitration hearing. 

Law says:

For comparison purposes, a player may be compared to players in the same “service class” in the current year or in prior years, and third- and fourth-time eligibles may be compared to free agents who have signed in the current year or in prior years. Single-year salaries are more powerful comparisons than multi-year deals, since the individual salaries within a multi-year deal may be skewed due to bonuses, backloading, or other factors.

Law notes that Howard’s comp could be Miguel Cabrera, who made $7.4MM last year.  Howard logically deserves more than that based on a stat comparison, making the Phillies’ $7MM submission seem low.

Odds and Ends: Howard, Aardsma, Odalis

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Here we go, another random collection of links.

  • The Red Sox inked a couple of former closers to minor league deals: Dan Kolb and Dan Miceli.  No need to run out and pick them up for your fantasy team.  I think Papelbon is secure.
  • Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe says the Red Sox are hunting for a lefty bench bat.  Tony Clark emailed him to say he’d love a return to Boston, but Cafardo says he’s not on the top of the list.  Clark hit .207/.265/.291 for the ’02 Sox.
  • A few comments from Pat Gillick on the Ryan Howard situation.  He says the Phillies are "open to anything."  Gillick also claimed arbitration hearings really aren’t all that contentious.  I guess that could be true, I’ve never been in the room for one.
  • The official acquisition of Octavio Dotel meant the White Sox DFA’d David Aardsma.  Aardsma, 26, has whiffed about a batter per inning over his last two seasons.  He has to have a little bit of trade value.
  • Impacto Deportivo says the Mets will meet with Odalis Perez.  Two left-handed O. Perez’s might confuse opponents, giving the Mets an advantage.  Really though it’s a good idea for Omar to stockpile some arms even if Odalis doesn’t have much left.  One thing’s for sure, he won’t be earning $7.75MM again.  (Hat tip to MetsBlog).
  • Looking for an MLBTR reader forum?  I offer you our Facebook discussion board.

Odds and Ends: Howard, Cormier, Gerut

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I am currently evaluating Phil Hughes’ playlist.  Some of it is solid.  Let’s get on to the odds and ends…

  • Bill Conlin thinks it’s a mistake for the Phillies to pay Ryan Howard at a rate commensurate with his service time.  It’s a slippery slope – shouldn’t Cole Hamels be earning $15MM instead of $500K, then?  The system may be broken but it doesn’t make sense for the Phillies to start ignoring service time.
  • John Mozeliak is not done yet.  Meanwhile, Albert Pujols continued to direct his ire at KTVI-TV of St. Louis. 
  • The Orioles agreed to a minor league deal with 27 year-old righty Lance Cormier worth around $450K.  Cormier doesn’t have much to show for his 244 big league innings, whether starting or relieving.  He has a decent groundball rate, at least.
  • The Padres signed Jody Gerut to a minor league pact that could be worth as much as $910K.  He’s 30 now; his best season was an .830 OPS for Cleveland at age 25.  Since then he’s had all sorts of knee problems and even had a grievance with the Pirates.

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