Rosenthal’s Latest: Howard, Burrell, Burnett
Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports has a new column up today.
- With Ryan Howard looking at maybe a $14MM salary in his second year of arbitration, the Phillies could shop him this winter. Rosenthal lays out a scenario where they trade Howard and use some of those young players to acquire Matt Holliday. In this scenario Pat Burrell could be re-signed to play first base. I was surprised to see that a club official sees the chances of retaining Burrell as better than 50-50.
- If A.J. Burnett opts out, he will again favor teams such as the Nationals, Orioles, and Cardinals. Rosenthal thinks the Yankees and Mets are possible as well. And it’s still possible the Jays convince Burnett to stay by adding to his ’09 and ’10 salaries.
- Rosenthal frowns upon the Mariners’ double-failure to unload Jarrod Washburn‘s contract.
Perrotto’s Latest: Atkins, Holliday, Howard
Baseball Prospectus’ John Perrotto has a new column up; let’s discuss the hot stove tidbits.
- Perrotto wouldn’t be surprised to see Clay Buchholz rejoin the Red Sox as a reliever, though some have suggested he’ll just remain in Pawtucket. The Red Sox have an embarrassment of starting pitching right now.
- The Indians are "bringing up Garrett Atkins and Matt Holliday in trade talks." Holliday just hit the DL, but there’s plenty of time before the deadline.
- Perrotto’s sources suggest the Phillies may deal Ryan Howard before the ’09 season, to avoid his probable large salary. Can you think of any reasonable fits for him?
Stark’s Latest: Young Players, Giles, DeJesus
Jayson Stark’s latest Rumblings and Grumblings column is chock full of information.
- Stark rattles off Dan Uggla, Ryan Howard, Cole Hamels, B.J. Upton, Justin Upton, Russell Martin, Zack Greinke, Prince Fielder, Felix Hernandez, Jeff Francoeur, Jonathan Papelbon, Kevin Youkilis, and Dustin Pedroia as youngsters who do not have long-term deals in the works. With Uggla and Greinke, the opposition seems more on the team’s side. With Hamels and Howard neither side wants a long-term deal. With the rest, the player is resisting.
- The Padres’ top trading chip is probably Brian Giles, though a deal would further deplete a weak offense.
- The A’s are willing to deal, with pitching considered the surplus. Billy Beane might be able to snag one good prospect for Rich Harden.
- There’s some doubt as to whether the Rockies will make Matt Holliday this year’s Mark Teixeira as we approach the deadline.
- Teams other than the Royals are speculating that center fielder David DeJesus might be available.
- The Marlins and Hanley Ramirez battled over a no-trade clause…and the Fish won. He has none.
Howard Not Sweating Recent Extensions
Over the past few months, Troy Tulowitzki, Miguel Cabrera, Evan Longoria, Hanley Ramirez, and Ryan Braun have been locked up to long-term contracts. There appears to be no such deal in place for Phillies slugger Ryan Howard. Though the two teams have talked long-term over the past two off-seasons, they aren’t particularly close on terms.
The difference, of course, is that Tulowitzki, Longoria, Ramirez, and Braun all signed before reaching arbitration. Cabrera went to arbitration once with the Marlins, taking home $7.4MM before being traded to the Tigers, where he signed a monstrous extension. However, there is no reason to believe that Howard will get similar treatment. The former MVP is three years Cabrera’s senior.
While Howard’s potential free agency pay day has been slightly hindered by his extended time in the minor leagues, he should still make out well before then. In his first year of arbitration eligibility, he took home a record $10MM. He’ll face arbitration before each of the next three seasons before he reaches free agency after the 2011 season, at the age of 32.
He could rack up over $50MM prior to that, though (counting this year’s bounty). And at 32, he might be able to land a decent sum, likely with an AL team to split time at first base and DH. Howard himself says it best: "I’ve always said it’s something that you can’t control. The only thing I can control is what I do on the field. If it ever happens, whenever it happens, it happens."
Joe Pawlikowski is a writer for River Ave. Blues, a Yankees blog, and can be reached here.
Buster Olney Drops Uncommon Trade Thoughts
Buster Olney talks trade in his latest insider-only piece. Let’s have a look at the guys he names.
- Ryan Howard. This is a tough one. Philly is in second place right now, and they should be in contention throughout the year. Howard has started poorly, but you can figure a rebound. While the Phillies might not be eager to pay Howard $25 to $30MM over the next two years, some other team might. I figure they could get a decent haul from, say, the Angels. Still, it’s hard to justify trading away your best power hitter (at least in name) while you’re vying for a playoff berth. The odds are long, very long for this one.
- Hideki Matsui and Johnny Damon. No way, no how. Then again, Phillies fans are probably saying the same about Howard. The Yanks stagnant offense figures to improve once A-Rod returns next week and Jorge Posada gets back behind the dish next month. But Matsui leads the team in average, OBP, and slugging, while Damon is second in OBP. Unless the Yanks fall out of contention, there’s no way they’re trading these guys. Even so, they’re a pair of 34-year-old outfielders making $13 million a season, with 2009 guaranteed. There’s no way a team will offer anything close to equal value.
- Ben Sheets. If the Brewers are going to contend this year, they’re going to need Sheets in the rotation. However, they’re 16-17 right now, and likely won’t see Yovani Gallardo for the rest of the season. The Brewers likely won’t keep Sheets after this year, anyway, so if they’re still in the middle of the pack, they can use the oft-injured ace to reload on players that can help them next year. Their lineup is still very young, with only two regulars over the age of 28. An influx of pitching could set them up well for next year.
Joe Pawlikowski writes for River Ave. Blues, a Yankees blog.
Odds and Ends: Tejada, Howard, Johnson
Couple more odds and ends this evening…
- Orioles executive VP Mike Flanagan admitted he wouldn’t have signed Miguel Tejada to a six-year deal if he knew the shortstop’s proper age. But he still would’ve signed him (if possible). People are debating whether ESPN ambushed Tejada with his birth certificate…of course they did.
- Ken Rosenthal believes the optimal course of action for the Phillies is to just let Ryan Howard play out the string and then let him walk as a free agent after the 2011 season.
- Rays Index says the Dan Johnson acquisition signals a "win-now" attitude for the Rays.
Odds and Ends: Schilling, Piazza, Howard
Tax day roundup…
- Some mild drama over whether Curt Schilling would consider pitching for the Yankees next year. He reiterated that he won’t. It takes two to tango, anyway.
- Pedro Martinez may be out until June. Nelson Figueroa‘s chance continues, with Claudio Vargas as the backup plan. The Mets still have a solid rotation without Pedro.
- Mark Healey has heard rumblings that the Reds and Yankees are looking at Mike Piazza.
- Phillies Nation on why they would trade Ryan Howard.
- Bill Barnwell looks at the four trades Randy Johnson trades. I thought the Unit looked respectable last night, though it’s hard to gauge against the Giants.
- Susan Slusser believes a recent roster move indicates that the A’s are playing to win in ’08. They’re in first place at the moment.
- The Dodgers rolled out the red carpet for bloggers.
Stark’s Latest: Bonds, Howard, Vargas
ESPN’s Jayson Stark has a new Rumblings and Grumblings up; let’s take a look.
- Stark surveyed execs from three teams about why Barry Bonds remains unemployed. They provided the answers you’d expect, and collusion isn’t one of them. One of the team officials believes a major injury to one of the 14 DHs could very well result in a Bonds signing. Related note: Gary Sheffield just tore a tendon in his finger. Meanwhile, Joel Sherman speculates that Bonds would be a nice match with the Blue Jays.
- There are signs that Ryan Howard wants an unprecedented contract – he won’t be using Miguel Cabrera as his model. A trade before he reaches free agency (after the 2010 season) seems likely.
- Stark says the Mets are eyeing Claudio Vargas but would want him to work at Triple A for a while first. They’re not showing interest in available guys like David Wells, Jeff Weaver, or Robinson Tejeda. David Lennon of Newsday counters by saying the Mets do have interest in Tejeda, though nothing is close.
Miguel Cabrera Signs Extension
4:08pm: John Lowe has the year by year breakdown and adds that there are ten teams Cabrera can be traded to without his permission.
TUESDAY, 12:44pm: Cabrera’s seven-year extension is official. $20MM a year is a solid price for 25 year-old superstar who has never been injured. And Cabrera sets himself up for one more massive deal, just like A-Rod did.
MONDAY, 8:57am: Though we don’t have an official announcement and press conference from the Tigers yet, it’s obvious that an agreement has been reached. Sabernomics thinks Cabrera will be worth $268MM over this time period; PECOTA feels differently. Cabrera will only be 32 when this contract ends. Though their ages don’t match up, Jim Salisbury and Todd Zolecki believe this deal could be a comparable for Ryan Howard.
SUNDAY, 8:52pm: Danny Knobler clarifies: it’s a seven-year extension worth around $140MM, starting with the 2009 season. Regardless, it’s a team-friendly deal.
12:18am: According to ESPN’s Enquire Rojas, Tigers third baseman Miguel Cabrera is set to sign an eight-year, $153.3MM extension. That’s $19.16MM per year for 2009-16. Definitely less than I expected him to sign for. We’ll examine the deal more closely when details become available.
Papelbon Gets $775K
Outspoken Red Sox closer Jonathan Papelbon signed a one-year deal for $775K for ’08. That’s significantly more than the Sox had to give him, so it seems they value his happiness. His new salary beats Mariano Rivera‘s two-year service time closer record of $750K.
Papelbon’s salary will increase drastically a year from now, as he’ll be arbitration-eligible for the first time. He probably won’t get the $10MM Ryan Howard did, but something north of $5MM seems possible.