Mets Interested In Tatsuya Imai
The Mets are interested in Japanese right-hander Tatsuya Imai, according to Andy Martino of SNY. Imai has not been officially posted yet, but his team, the Saitama Seibu Lions of NPB, recently announced that they intend to do so. Martino notes that the Mets’ level of interest is not the same as it was for Yoshinobu Yamamoto two offseasons ago, implying that Imai is simply one of several arms the club is looking into.
Imai, 27, has pitched for the Lions for eight years and is a three-time NPB All-Star. After middling results in his first three seasons from 2018-20, he pitched to a 3.30 ERA in 25 starts in 2021 and has posted a sub-3.00 ERA in every full season since (he only made nine starts in 2022). This year, Imai turned in a career-best effort with a 1.92 ERA in 163 2/3 innings across 24 starts. He also set a career high with a 27.8% strikeout rate while decreasing his walk rate to a career-low 7.0%. His season was highlighted by a combined no-hitter on April 18, in which he pitched the first eight innings, as well as a 17-strikeout performance on June 17 that broke the club record previously set by Daisuke Matsuzaka.
The NPB requires players to have nine years of service time before they become unrestricted free agents. By allowing Imai to pursue a move to MLB one year early, the Lions will secure a posting fee based on the value of his contract. We at MLBTR project Imai for a six-year, $150MM contract and placed him seventh on our Top 50 Free Agents list. Based on that projection, any signing team would owe the Lions a $24.375MM posting fee. In terms of stuff, Imai boasts a 95-99 mph fastball as well as a slider and changeup. Based on that profile and his recent track record, he’ll be an intriguing target for clubs in need of starting pitching. That said, Martino notes that industry opinion is mixed on whether he can succeed as an MLB starter.
As for the Mets, it comes as no surprise that they would like to reinforce their rotation. The club’s starters ranked 18th in the majors with a 4.13 ERA in 2025, although they did lead the league with a 49.4% groundball rate. David Peterson, Clay Holmes, and Kodai Senga led the team in innings pitched, although Senga only made 22 starts due to missing a month with a right hamstring strain and being optioned to the minors in September. Peterson was worth 3.1 fWAR this year and is projected to earn $7.6MM in arbitration, while Holmes is under contract for $13MM with a player option for 2027. Beyond those three, the rotation picture is less certain. Frankie Montas declined to opt out of his contract, but he is a candidate to be released since he will miss next season recovering from a UCL surgery in August. Sean Manaea missed most of the season with a right oblique strain and struggled upon his return. Nolan McLean, Brandon Sproat, and Jonah Tong all debuted in 2025 and will factor into the rotation, though owner Steve Cohen has never been shy about spending big on free agents. Signing Imai could provide stability in the rotation behind Peterson, Holmes, and Senga while easing the rookies into larger roles.
Tatsuya Imai To Be Posted For MLB Teams This Offseason
The Saitama Seibu Lions announced (Japanese language link) on their official team website that they have accepted Tatsuya Imai‘s request to be posted to Major League teams. Once Imai is officially posted, he’ll have 45 days to work out a contract with a big league team, or else he’ll return to the Lions for the 2026 Nippon Professional Baseball season.
It has been over two months since reports first surfaced about the likelihood of Imai’s availability this winter, and today’s news officially confirms the three-time NPB All-Star as one of the most intriguing arms of the 2025-26 free agent class. Imai has a 3.15 ERA over 963 2/3 career innings with the Lions, with a 22.31% strikeout rate and a 11.52% walk rate. While that career walk rate is on the high side, Imai has reduced that number in each of his last four seasons, and he had a very solid 7.02% walk rate over 163 2/3 innings in 2025.
Imai is only 27, and doesn’t turn 28 until May. Between his age and an intriguing four-pitch arsenal (headlined by a fastball in the 95-99mph range and a plus slider), there’s a lot to like in terms of how Imai’s success in NPB might translate against Major League hitters. This upside led MLBTR to place Imai seventh on our list of the offseason’s top 50 free agents, and we’re predicting a six-year, $150MM deal even though some evaluators feel Imai projects as a back-end starter or even as a reliever in the majors.
Imai qualifies for full free agency next offseason, so the Lions may feel that they can at least earn some money back via a posting fee by letting Imai go now rather than 12 months from now. As per the terms of the MLB-NPB posting system, any Major League team that reaches an agreement with Imai will owe the Lions a staggered fee depending on the size of the deal, and on any future earnings (i.e. options, bonuses, etc.) attached to that initial contract.
The Lions will get 20% of the contract’s first $25MM, 17.5% of the contract’s next $25MM, and 15% of any money above the $50MM mark. So if Imai were to sign a deal matching MLBTR’s $150MM projection, his new team would owe the Lions a $24.375MM posting fee on top of Imai’s $150MM salary.
NPB’s Kazuma Okamoto, Tatsuya Imai Expected To Be Posted For MLB Teams
7:34pm: Jon Heyman of The New York Post writes that Okamoto and Imai are indeed both expected to be posted this offseason.
12:24pm: Every offseason, a handful of high-profile players from Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball and the Korea Baseball Organization in South Korea either reach true free agency or are made available to MLB teams by way of the posting system. We already know that slugging third baseman Munetaka Murakami (NPB’s Yakult Swallows) and steady right-hander Kona Takahashi (NPB’s Seibu Lions) will be posted this winter. Breakout infielder Sung Mun Song (KBO’s Kiwoom Heroes) is hoping to be posted for big league clubs as well. ESPN’s Jeff Passan reports this morning that Yomiuri Giants third baseman Kazuma Okamoto and Seibu Lions righty Tatsuya Imai are also hoping to be posted by their clubs and make the jump to Major League Baseball.
The hope of being posted is notable, but that also does not guarantee either player will be available to North American clubs this winter. Yakyu Cosmopolitan — a terrific source for English-speaking fans with an interest in Japanese baseball — points out that NPB’s Giants are a typically anti-posting club who rarely make their stars available to MLB teams. Okamoto is the Giants’ captain. The Lions are more amenable to posting players, but they’ve already agreed to post Takahashi. Posting two members of their rotation would be difficult, but YC notes that Imai would be a true free agent after the 2026 season. The Lions could lose him for nothing in the 2026-27 offseason anyhow.
Okamoto turned 29 in June. He’s a six-time All-Star and two-time Gold Glove winner who’s thrice led NPB in home runs. He missed more than three months of the current season after injuring his elbow in a collision at first base, but he’s healthy again and is batting .304/.385/.585 with 11 homers, 13 doubles, a triple and nearly as many walks (10.2%) as strikeouts (11.2%) in 196 plate appearances. Okamoto averaged 34 homers per season from 2018-23, “slipped” to 27 last year, and is now homering at the third-best rate of his career (once every 17.8 plate appearances).
Okamoto has been on the radar of MLB scouts for several years now, but if the Giants are going to post him, this will be the time to do it. Like Imai, he’ll have the requisite nine years of service to become a true free agent after the 2026 season. That hasn’t stopped the Yomiuri club from holding onto stars in the past. However, if Okamoto is set on eventually making a move to North America, the Giants’ decision boils down to posting him now and reaping a notable sum via the posting system or allowing him to walk with no compensation next winter.
The right-handed-hitting Okamoto played primarily third base early in his NPB career, but he’s seen significant time at first and has a handful of starts in the outfield corners as well. Okamoto has split his time between the corners this year but was primarily a first baseman in 2024. Sports Info Solutions credited him with the Fielding Bible Award as NPB’s best defender at first base in 2024, and Passan suggests that some MLB teams feel he’s better suited at first than at third.
Eric Longenhagen of FanGraphs agrees, labeling Okamoto as a “likely first-base-only defender” in the majors but crediting his plus power and consistent ability to pull the ball with authority. Longenhagen notes that, as is the case with most NPB hitters, there are questions about Okamoto’s ability to hit big league fastballs. The average NPB fastball is around 91 mph, compared to this year’s 94.4 mph average four-seamer in MLB (via Statcast). Longenhagen writes that Okamoto’s numbers against heaters greater than 94 mph “fall off a cliff.” It’s a valid concern, though the counter is always that a hitter could potentially adapt to better velocity when seeing it more frequently. That uncertainty will be baked into eventual price of a free agent contract if Okamoto is posted.
Even if Okamoto is limited to primarily playing first base, he’s a good defender there by all accounts. He has plus power, improving contact skills and draws plenty of walks. Since settling in as a regular in his age-22 season, Okamoto is a .276/.360/.524 hitter with an average of 39 homers per 162 games played. He currently has a career-low strikeout rate and the second-best ISO (slugging minus batting average) of his career. If he’s posted, there will surely be multi-year interest from MLB clubs.
Imai’s possible addition to the market is arguably even more intriguing, given the heavy price teams are willing to pay for prime-aged pitching. The 5’11” righty won’t turn 28 until next May. He’s in the midst of a career-best season, sporting a comical 1.50 ERA with a 28.8% strikeout rate and 6.7% walk rate in 143 2/3 innings. Dating back to the 2022 season, Imai boasts a sensational 2.10 earned run average. Passan notes that the right-hander sits 95 mph with his heater and tops out at 99 mph, giving him the sort of power arsenal that’s quite rare in NPB.
An ankle injury held him to nine games back in 2022, but Imai has topped 130 innings in three seasons since and is averaging seven innings per start for a second consecutive season. He’s on pace for back-to-back seasons of more than 170 innings. (Bear in mind that the NPB season is 144 games, not 162 as in MLB, and Japanese pitchers typically only start once per week.) Imai currently ranks seventh in NPB in innings pitched, and the six names ahead of him all have at least one extra start over him. He’s averaged more innings per start than all but one of those pitchers ahead of him on that leaderboard.
Passan writes that he polled more than a dozen scouts and front office executives on the type of contract Imai could command, with estimates ranging from $80MM on the low end to nearly $200MM on the high end. He’ll be three years older than Yoshinobu Yamamoto was when he landed his precedent-setting $325MM contract with the Dodgers but two years younger than Shota Imanaga was when he signed a four-year, $53MM deal that now looks like a bargain for the Cubs (and still will even after Chicago picks up an option to push the deal to $80MM over five years).
If Imai is posted, he’ll join Dustin May and Michael Soroka as free agent starters heading into their age-28 seasons. Imai would have considerably more earning power than either, as big league teams will pay a premium for his power arsenal and the allure of the unknown. Based on Imai’s age, arsenal and recent track record, there’s a chance that he could be the highest-paid pitcher of the entire free agent class this winter — if the Lions eventually choose to make him available.
For those in need of a refresher, the MLB-NPB posting system allows Japanese teams to post their players for all 30 MLB teams at their discretion. Players that are 25 or older and have six-plus years of experience can sign major league contracts for any length and any amount. When a player is posted, that opens a 45-day window for him to negotiate with any and all interested MLB clubs.
When a deal is reached, the MLB team must pay a posting/release fee to the player’s former NPB club. That sum is equal to 20% of the contract’s first $25MM, 17.5% of the next $25MM and 15% of any money thereafter. That sum comes in addition to the contract. Any down-the-road earnings (e.g. club options, performance bonuses, etc.) are also factored in once they become guaranteed. For instance, if Imai were to sign a $125MM contract with an eventual club option for $25MM, his MLB team would owe the Lions an additional $3.75MM (15%) upon exercising that club option.