Teruaki Sato

MLB teams believe Nippon Professional Baseball stars Hiromi Itoh and Teruaki Sato will both be posted into next offseason’s free agent market, according to ESPN.com’s Jorge Castillo.  Itoh is a right-handed pitcher for the Hokkaido Nippon-Ham Fighters, while Sato is a slugging third baseman/outfielder for the Hanshin Tigers.  Both are members of  Japan’s World Baseball Classic team, who square off with Venezuela today in a quarter-final matchup in Miami.

Itoh turns 29 in August, and the righty has a 2.87 ERA, 21.73% strikeout rate, and 6.17% walk rate over 828 career innings with the Fighters from 2021-25.  He is the reigning winner of the Sawamura Award, which is somewhat akin to the Cy Young Award except it is only given to a sole NPB pitcher (not one each from the Central and Pacific Leagues) and it isn’t awarded every year if no pitchers are deemed worthy of the honor.

Big league pitching coaches might well be intrigued by delving into Itoh’s seven-pitch arsenal, which is highlighted by a fastball that has hit 96mph.  Castillo writes that Itoh’s primary pitches amidst his seven offerings are the fastball, a splitter, and a sweeper.

The fairly modest strikeout rate could be a bit of a red flag for Major League teams, plus Itoh is relatively short at only 5’9″.  Still, a talent evaluator for an American League team tells Castillo that while Itoh is “smallish,” he has a “proven track record of durability.  He should continue to strike out MLB hitters while allowing very few walks.”

Castillo names Sonny Gray as a comp for Itoh, while Ryan O’Hearn is the comp for Sato.  The Hanshin slugger just celebrated his 27th birthday yesterday, and is coming off a 2025 season that saw him hit .277/.345/.579 over 597 plate appearances while bopping a career-high 40 home runs.  This huge year earned him Central League MVP honors, plus his fourth All-Star nod in his five NPB seasons.

Sato’s resume also includes a Gold Glove for his work at third base, which has been Sato’s primary position over the last three seasons.  He played a good deal of right field in 2021-22 and also got some work back in the outfield this past season, so Major League teams could view Sato as a versatile player able to capably toggle between the two positions, if he isn’t just kept at third base.

Since both Itoh and Sato are well short of the nine full years of NPB service to achieve full free agency, the Fighters and Tigers would have to agree to make an earlier-than-expected posting in order to allow the players to test the big league market.  This is maybe more noteworthy in Sato’s case since the Tigers are traditionally reluctant to post their players early.  Any number of factors can go into a team’s decision-making process about when (or if) to post star players for MLB clubs, but one argument in Sato’s favor might be that he has already helped the Tigers achieve some team success — the Tigers won the Japan Series in 2023 and reached the Series again in 2025.

As a reminder, the rules of MLB/NPB posting system state that when a player is posted, he has 45 days to agree to a contract with a Major League team.  If no deal is reached within that time, the player returns to his Japanese team for the next season, though he can be posted again in a future offseason.  If a player does agree to a contract to head to North America, his former NPB club will earn a posting fee related to the size of the contract.  The NPB team’s fee would equal 20% of the first $25MM of the player’s guaranteed Major League contract, 17.5% of the next $25MM, and 15% of anything beyond the $50MM mark.

It is possible the posting system could be altered when the new Collective Bargaining Agreement is negotiated next offseason.  Changing the system would naturally require input from NPB, and given all of the other major labor issues expected to dominate the talks between the Major League owners and players’ union, the posting system is probably a back-burner issue at best.

That said, it is a virtual guarantee that the league will lock out the players when the CBA expires on December 1, resulting in a transactions freeze.  Since most NPB players aren’t officially posted until at least the second half of November, Itoh and Sato would almost surely have their 45-day windows interrupted, leaving them in limbo throughout however long a work stoppage might last.  Either could prefer to stay in NPB for the 2027 season in order to wait out MLB’s labor uncertainty, though it should be noted that the 2021-22 lockout didn’t deter Seiya Suzuki from making the jump to the majors.  Suzuki was comfortable waiting out what ended up being a 99-day lockout, and he landed his five-year, $85MM deal with the Cubs.

The markets for this year’s crop of high-profile NPB talent might also impact Itoh and Sato’s decisions.  Kazuma Okamoto landed a four-year, $60MM deal from the Blue Jays that basically matched projections, but new Astros right-hander Tatsuya Imai (three years, $54MM with two opt-out clauses) and new White Sox first baseman Munetaka Murakami (two years and $34MM) had to settle for lesser contracts than expected.  While obviously players are always trying to post big numbers and correct any flaws in their game, there could be some extra pressure on Itoh and Sato in showcasing themselves during the 2026 season if their hope is to land a pricey MLB contract next winter.