More Rosenthal
Ken Rosenthal’s been a busy man today. He’s got another column up for FOXSports.com; go read it. The high-level version:
- Rosenthal sees the Yankees declining Bobby Abreu‘s 2008 option and turning to Melky Cabrera or a big name free agent for right field. I agree; you can check out my other assessments of 2008 club options here. Might be time to switch my predictions on Juan Uribe, Jose Guillen, and Paul Byrd. I can now see Uribe declined and the other two exercised. Byrd has come alive, and Guillen’s strong May has sparked the chance of the Ms taking their $9MM option for ’08.
- Torii Hunter‘s having a well-timed career year, but the Twins can’t trade him unless they’re out of contention. Tough situation. The Twins are 7.5 games back in the Central, 7 out of the wild card. If it’s double digits in July the decision gets easier.
- It wouldn’t be easy for the Cardinals to trade Scott Rolen right now, based on the factors outlined here.
- Erick Aybar remains an excellent trading chip for the Angels. His .600 OPS doesn’t help his value, but it’s pretty much what PECOTA expected. There’s a small chance Aybar becomes Barry Larkin, but to me he looks like the next Cesar Izturis.
Perrotto’s Latest
John Perrotto of Baseball Prospectus has quickly become another fine source for trade rumors. Some highlights from his latest column:
- The Twins would surrender a solid arm – maybe Jesse Crain, Juan Rincon, or Scott Baker – in return for a right-handed hitter. My own speculation: perhaps Wayne Krivsky, looking to stabilize his bullpen, would trade Edwin Encarnacion for Rincon. Rincon has been one of the best setup men in baseball for the past four years. On the other hand, Baker could really flourish in the National League and Kyle Lohse may leave via free agency after the season. Terry Ryan might want a more proven, reliable bat though. Buster Olney throws out Morgan Ensberg‘s name in his blog today.
- Some clubs already have center fielder Torii Hunter on the radar: the Red Sox, White Sox, Cardinals, and Rangers. I think there is no doubt the Rangers go in for one of the "name" center fielders this winter. I can see the Red Sox testing the waters but it would seem odd to block Jacoby Ellsbury for four or five years. Hunter is making the contract year argument, hitting .324/.358/.618 in 35 games. His previous career high in slugging was .524 in ’02.
- Perrotto confirms the finding of Michael Gluskin – Odalis Perez and Chan Ho Park are two names on the Orioles’ target list of starting pitchers. The O’s might have found some relief in the shrewd Jeremy Guthrie pickup – his last two starts against the Devil Rays and Red Sox were excellent.
Torii Hunter At 4/60?
Charley Walters of the St. Paul Pioneer Press believes Torii Hunter will snag a contract in the neighborhood of four years and $60MM after this season, if his strong offensive output continues. That’s an entirely reasonable estimate and may be low.
A 32 year-old Johnny Damon received four years and $52MM, but that was two years ago and Hunter plays better defense. Alfonso Soriano might be a better point of reference at eight years, $136MM. He turned 31 shortly after he signed; Hunter will be about 32.5. Soriano was simply an experiment in center, while Hunter is a pro.
If Hunter is no longer a .480 SLG type guy, but rather a .540 SLG type (admittedly a long shot), his contract could ramp up to $16MM annually over five or even six years. The only concern is that his newfound power is coming at the expense of walks – Hunter has just three of them so far this year. It works as long as he’s hitting .330.
With Jacoby Ellsbury coming on strong in the minors, the Red Sox don’t need a huge CF expenditure. I could see the Orioles, Rangers, or Phillies splurging on Hunter this winter.
Hunter Expects To Leave Twins
If I were a betting man, I’d bet that Torii Hunter will not be a Twin in 2008. Hunter agrees, though it doesn’t seem like he’ll let it become a distraction.
Say he hits free agency and asks for a four-year deal to cover his age 32-35 seasons. PECOTA would offer him a $34MM deal. PECOTA would then be turned down and counteroffered 4/52 or so from Hunter’s agent.
The 2007-08 offseason is notable for its selection of center fielders. Hunter, Ichiro Suzuki, Eric Byrnes, Mike Cameron, Andruw Jones, Corey Patterson, and Aaron Rowand are all set to hit the market. Teams with openings could include the Orioles, Red Sox, Twins, White Sox, Athletics, Rangers, Braves, Marlins, Phillies, Astros, Cardinals, Pirates, Reds, and Padres.
Torii Hunter’s Option Exercised
As expected, the Twins exercised Torii Hunter‘s $12MM 2007 option today. Next year will be his age 31 season. Baseball Prospectus projects his value at just $3.55MM for 2007. On this one I will have to disagree with the numbers; I would exercise the option with little hesitation.
The Twins still have roughly $13-15MM to spend this winter; here are the team needs.
With Hunter off the market, the likely free agent center fielder options are:
Jim Edmonds
Gary Matthews Jr.
Juan Pierre
Dave Roberts
Kenny Lofton
Steve Finley
Darin Erstad
Olney: Cards Considering Stewart/Hunter
I haven’t addressed the Cardinal outfield situation since March 5th. Since then, many things have changed:
Kevin Mench is hitting .300/.328/.591 with 9 home runs. He’s been driving in a lot of runs as the Rangers’ sixth place hitter. What’s more, Jason Marquis has stunk it up (6.00 ERA) and John Koronka came out of nowhere to toss four quality starts in seven tries. Can’t see any kind of Mench for Marquis swap now.
Also, Jim Edmonds is hitting .240/.333/.417, and Will Carroll thinks he may have to shut it down for a while to get completely right again.
Toss in a strained elbow for Sidney Ponson (who has a 2.81 ERA) and a sore back for Mark Mulder, and the Cardinals can’t afford to deal a starting pitcher right now.
The need for an outfielder persists. So Taguchi isn’t hitting. Larry Bigbie was activated yesterday, and he deserves a shot. According to Cardinals Diaspora, a recent Buster Olney report indicates interest from Walt Jocketty in Torii Hunter or Shannon Stewart. As noted in the post, Stewart is more their style. He makes $6.5MM this year and is off to a .295/.352/.384 start. PECOTA expects his age 32 season to finish around .272/.335/.406. Is that really any better than the .264/.334/.423 season projected for Bigbie?
The Craig Wilson option remains a viable one, and Luis Gonzalez‘s .832 OPS ain’t bad. Cards fans dream of Miguel Cabrera, but Dontrelle Willis seems more likely to be dealt this summer. Haven’t seen any smoke on that one for a while, though the Cards did show interest. Anthony Reyes remains the best trading chip, as he has a 3.62 ERA and 35/5 K/BB ratio at Triple A. About a week ago, Viva El Birdos noted some interesting developments surrounding a Reyes start.
A few more possibilities, based on my own speculation: Eric Hinske, Reggie Sanders, Alfonso Soriano, Emil Brown, Brady Clark, Jose Cruz Jr., Matt Lawton, David Dellucci, and Victor Diaz.
If I were GM? I’d probably start with Lawton but see what it would take to get Reggie back.
The Yankees And Torii Hunter
In my April 6th post "The Torii Hunter Situation," I didn’t mention that Yankees as a potential suitor. I figured Johnny Damon was cemented as the team’s center fielder. But now Damon says he’d be willing to move to right field for Hunter. Such a switch could push Gary Sheffield to DH, not a bad thing.
If Damon’s arm is not good enough for center field, I don’t know how it would suffice in right. But let’s put that little problem aside for a moment and try to determine whether the Yanks have the goods on the farm to get a deal done.
I think New York most certainly has the players to make this type of trade. They may see starting pitching as more of a concern, but some combination of these players is likely to be traded this summer.
Philip Hughes – Would the Yanks trade their one bona fide pitching prospect? If the past is any indication, yes. The 19 year-old righty ranks as the 12th best pitching prospect in the game, according to Baseball Prospectus.
Hughes has drawn some Mark Prior comparisons, and that includes the injury proclivities. PECOTA, however, considers Jake Peavy his #1 comp. The kid has had his way with the Florida State League so far (high class A ball). He’s got ten scoreless innings under his belt for the Tampa Yankees this year, and could find himself in the Trenton Thunder rotation in a couple of months. If the Yanks want one of those marquee Marlins, Hughes will be a requirement. Could they get Hunter without trading Hughes? Maybe.
Robinson Cano – You know him, you love him. The Rennie Stennett wannabe burst onto the Major League scene last year with a .297/.320/.458 line in 544 plate appearances. PECOTA sees a dip to a .726 OPS this year from the 23 year-old second baseman. That’s OK, though some would say that he defense pushes him towards the bottom half of the 2B rankings.
Cano’s trade value is sky-high, and the Twins have a $5.75MM option for 2007 on Luis Castillo. Given that a Hunter trade would be a white flag, the Twins would likely ship Castillo elsewhere as well. Maybe even in the same package.
Jose Tabata – For a team in rebuilding mode, Tabata would be quite a prize to pluck from the Yankees’ system. Tabata is a 17 year-old outfielder for the Charleston RiverDogs (low class A). He’s dominated the South Atlantic League so far with a .390/.395/.537 line in 10 games. He’s a five-tool player with a huge ceiling, though he hasn’t been nearly as difficult to strike out this year as he was in the past. A perfect fit for the Marlins, though he could make a Hunter trade pay off in a big way for the Twins in 2008 and beyond.
Eric Duncan – He makes for an interesting prospect, and the Yankees have been aggressive in promoting him. The 21 year-old struggled in Double A last year but begins this season at Columbus anyway. He’ll be a corner infielder in the bigs. Duncan has been involved in trade rumors for a while now, but so far the accelerated schedule hasn’t helped his prospect status.
With major questions in the last two rotation spots, the Yankees are doing to need to make a major deal or two. To fire off their best bullets to acquire Hunter doesn’t make much sense, even if Damon likes the idea.
The Torii Hunter Situation
I noticed in the Star Tribune yesterday that Torii Hunter, the Twins’ highest paid player, "has expressed doubts the team will pick up his $12MM option for 2007." The Twins have the option of buying the option out for $2MM.
Hunter is, of course, only the highest-paid Twin in 2006 because the club backloaded Johan Santana‘s four-year deal. Santana will make $9MM in ’06, $12MM in ’07, and $13.25MM in ’08. Without doing any research whatsoever, I’m guessing the last two years of Santana’s deal will be Twins records for salaries.
Tough to say whether the Twins will keep Hunter around for $12MM or pay $2MM to be off the hook. Will Hunter be worth that much money when he enters his age 31 season in 2007? Baseball Prospectus says no, valuing him at just $4,575,000 for that year. In fact, they think he’s only going to be worth $12MM for all of 2006-10.
However, their numbers don’t really take into account the center fielder market for the 2006-07 offseason. Jim Edmonds will be available if Walt Jocketty chooses his $3MM buyout over his $10MM salary (doubtful, since Edmonds actually will be worth ten mil in ’07). Mike Cameron would be available if the Padres buy out his $7MM option. Juan Pierre, Kenny Lofton, Preston Wilson (three-year club option), Jay Payton, and Dave Roberts can all be free agents if they aren’t signed to extensions.
Edmonds and Pierre figure to be out of the Twins’ range, so if they let Hunter go they’ll probably go for a second-tier option like Payton or Roberts. Which, in my opinion, would actually be the ideal move.
With their pitching staff and some mild offensive upgrades, the Twins are unlikely to fall out of contention before the trading deadline. So I would imagine that Hunter stays put. Terry Ryan does have some salary dumps to his credit: Rick Aguilera, Scott Erickson, and Kevin Tapani in 1995, Dave Hollins in 1996 (for David Ortiz!), and Roberto Kelly in 1997. (Source: Will Young at Baseball Think Factory).
The salary dumps, however, were before the Twins started competing. Ryan would probably be killed by Twins fans if the team is in the hunt this summer and he trades Hunter for prospects. Still, a desperate Bill Stoneman or Jim Bowden could make Ryan an offer he can’t refuse. It’s a longshot, but I can envision a scenario in which Darin Erstad gets hurt and the team doesn’t want to throw Chone Figgins or Juan Rivera out there.
Torii Hunter To The Yankees
The Yankees’ need for a center fielder is well known. The latest rumor making the rounds is that GM Brian Cashman will make a play to acquire Torii Hunter from the Twins.
Although his glovework hasn’t been anything special since 2001, the Yankees are after Hunter mainly to solidify their outfield defense. The 30 year-old Hunter never really developed plate discipline, but he’d still be worth a couple of wins compared to the current shell of Bernie Williams.
Hunter is under contract for 2006 at $10.75MM, and the Twins would love to get that money off the books to pursue a slugger. His 2007 club option for $12MM could be picked up by the Yanks if Hunter can remain a four win player in ’06. With his defense slipping, Hunter may try to reinvent himself as a patient slugger like Moises Alou did in 1997.
The Yankees won’t give up Robinson Cano to acquire Hunter, and Eric Duncan is out of the question. Instead, the Twins might take Andy Phillips and try him at third base. A promising young starter like Matt DeSalvo (3.02 ERA at Double A Trenton in 2005) would also be necessary. The Twins’ bounty may be less than impressive as they’re eager to shed Hunter’s salary.