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Torii Hunter

Murton Late Scratch; Payton Talks Itensify

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UPDATE: While perhaps shopping Murton, the Cubs have had significant talks regarding Baltimore’s Jay Payton. The Cubs would send over two mid-level prospects; does Murton fit that criteria?  Payton will make $5MM next year to finish his contract.

UPDATE 2: RotoWorld says Murton was scratched tonight to allow Cliff Floyd to play and then get Sunday off.

Matt Murton was a late scratch for tonight’s Cubs-Reds game.  Does it mean anything?  We should know soon enough.  This time of year, every scratch or unexpected mid-game substitution is magnified.

The Cubs have been talking to the Rangers about lefty reliever Ron Mahay and catcher Gerald Laird, so maybe there’s a connection.  The Rangers could definitely find room for Murton in their outfield.

Take it with a grain of salt, but a Cubs source of mine confirms Felix Pie’s availability (huh?) and says the Cubs made an inquiry on Torii Hunter.  While intriguing, I wouldn’t expect either player to be traded.

Rosenthal’s Latest: Dunn, Wheeler, Izzy

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Ken Rosenthal posted a new column last night, and has updated it very recently.  I’ve already spoken about the Teixeira stuff, but there’s other good material in there too.

  • Some of the wilder speculation out there has been that the Twins might trade Torii Hunter or Johan Santana if they decide they’re out of it.  Various Baseball Prospectus reports put the Twins’ playoff chances between 5-10%.  Rosenthal debunks the idea that Minnesota would shop Hunter without first making him an offer, and keeping Santana for at least 2008 makes sense.  Plus, Santana has a no-trade clause. 
  • Rosenthal does have some Twins for us who might be traded: Luis Castillo and Carlos Silva.  Castillo has already been connected to the Mets in rumors, though Silva is a new one.  One could definitely envision Silva’s style working in the National League (I know, I say that a lot).  There was a recent Silva to Atlanta rumor, though Silva’s agent seems to have debunked it.
  • Rosenthal says Dontrelle Willis is not available.  Perhaps he and Tim Brown will engage in fisticuffs over this disagreement. 
  • The Diamondbacks have kicked the tires on Adam Dunn.  He might make sense as a rental – the D’Backs playoff changes sit between 16-27%, worth fighting for.  No doubt they’ve got a stable of young players to offer.
  • Rosenthal says the Astros have yet to receive interest on the Lidge/Wheeler/Qualls troika, while Jayson Stark said yesterday that the Astros hadn’t opened shop on them.  Thunderdome match #2, Rosenthal vs. Stark.  Assuming Ken survives Tim Brown.  Anyway, word is that the Rockies have their eye on Wheeler. 
  • Parties interested in Zack Greinke: Diamondbacks, Dodgers, Braves, and Cubs.  This gels with Dan Graziano’s findings.  Of course, trading a player like Greinke requires an equally talented youngster in return.
  • The Royals may not be able to do better than Cleveland’s Ben Francisco as a bounty for Octavio Dotel.  More on him in a separate post.
  • Trades of Joe Blanton and Huston Street are "highly unlikely."  So you’re saying there’s a chance?
  • The chances of the Cardinals trading Jason Isringhausen are described as "remote."  The Cards would have a hard time replacing him next year; he’s got a reasonable $8MM option.  He also has no-trade protection, so he’d probably want a better extension if he was to accept a trade.

Rosenthal’s Latest: Lohse, Hunter, Contreras

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The latest trade and signing rumors from Ken Rosenthal:

  • Rosenthal believes Alex Rodriguez’s ability to play shortstop could increase the number of suitors.  Take a look at the free agents – there may not be a single viable option at short this winter.  Still, the number of suitors for Rodriguez is severely limited by his massive contract requirement.  Not too many clubs aside from the Yankees and Red Sox can get in on $240MM over eight years or whatever.  The lack of available, reasonably priced shortstops could compel the Braves and Orioles to aggressively shop Edgar Renteria and Miguel Tejada.
  • As a 29 year-old free agent starter with decent stuff, Scott Boras could sell Kyle Lohse as the next Gil Meche this winter.  Meche’s work in the season’s first three months would only aid the wishcasting.  I put up a little Lohse history here, writing that his deal will likely fall somewhere between Jason Marquis and Meche.  Other free agent starters who will be under 30 for the 2008 season: Carlos Zambrano, Jason Jennings, Joe Kennedy, and Byung-Hyun Kim.
  • Rosenthal believes the Rangers will bid on Torii Hunter this winter unless they acquire a proven center fielder this summer.  He mentions that Jon Daniels set his sights on Shane Victorino but the Phils would rather trade Michael Bourn.  Unless the Rangers get a proven guy they will still go after Hunter.
  • The Mariners scouted Jose Contreras and Matt Morris recently, but both were lousy.  I still think Jennings could sneak in there as the best available starter, but he too hasn’t pitched well in July.  Definitely seems like the Mariners will snag some kind of starter.
  • Rosenthal disputes Evan Grant’s report of the Brewers and Indians showing interest in Kenny Lofton.  The Brewers are getting Bill Hall back soon and the Indians have some outfielders on the road to recovery as well.  Perfect, this frees him up for the Cubs!
  • Rosenthal mentions the same teams I did for Kevin Millar, but sees an August deal as a possibility.  Waiting until August doesn’t seem to make sense for the Orioles, as things get trickier then.
  • The Padres could trade Scott Linebrink in order to make payroll room for a starter.  Or they could just sign Brian Lawrence.  I discussed some other options for the Friars here.

Twins Rumors: Torii Hunter, Jacque Jones

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One club that doesn’t get a lot of play on MLBTR is the Twins.  They don’t make a lot of big trades or signings.  Although last year they did inquire on Alfonso Soriano.  Today, we don’t have any blockbusters, but do have rumors regarding Torii Hunter and Jacque Jones from La Velle Neal III of the Minneapolis Star-Tribune.

Regarding Hunter – he is leaving the door open for a contract extension with the Twins.  He told a radio station yesterday he doesn’t want Vernon Wells money but the Twins still haven’t talked to him about an extension at all.  He sounds bummed about it, but it just doesn’t seem likely the Twins can retain Hunter.  He’s going to need more than three years and more than $12MM annually.  The Twins aren’t in a position to give him even a reasonable discounted contract.

Meanwhile, Neal reveals that the Twins were previously in on Jacque Jones.  That would’ve been an interesting re-acquisition.  However, the Cubs pulled out of the Marlins deal because they didn’t want to eat 90%+ of his contract.  That stance probably knocks the Twins out of the running.

Neal notes that because of commitments for 2008, any deadline acquisition for a hitter made by Terry Ryan this year would likely be a rental.  Which is what makes Adam Dunn so perfect.

Hunter A Fit With Rangers

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The Rangers need a long-term center fielder, and they play 45 minutes from Torii Hunter’s hometown.  Seems like a perfect fit, right?

Maybe.  But according to Hunter yesterday, his heart still lies in Minnesota.  It seems that if the Twins can muster even a fairly competitive long-term offer for him, he’ll stay.  Hunter’s next deal will cover his age 32-35 seasons, at the least.  $13MM annually might be considered a discount.  Will the Twins at least offer Hunter a Johnny Damon contract?  Even if they did, he would have to turn a blind eye to more lucrative offers.  I think some team would give him a fifth year, and $15MM a year seems plenty possible following a career season.

The Rangers could certainly use Hunter in the lineup, especially if they trade Mark Teixeira for pitching (as has been speculated).  The team entered the season with a $71MM payroll, down from a high of $105MM in 2002.  Money coming off the books in ’08: Gagne ($6MM+), Lofton ($6MM), Wilkerson ($4.35MM), Sosa (about $2.4MM), and Mahay ($1.2MM).  That’s about $20MM, plus a random Jerry Hairston here and there.  On the other hand, some players have escalating salaries for ’08: Millwood ($1MM), Padilla ($2MM), Teixeira ($2.6MM), Blalock ($1.2MM), plus various other minor increases and arb-eligible guys.  Still, the Rangers should clear about $13MM even if they keep Teixeira, meaning there is definitely room for Hunter in the payroll.

I should add that if Alex Rodriguez becomes a free agent, that’s $27MM saved for Texas.

More Rosenthal

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Ken Rosenthal’s been a busy man today.  He’s got another column up for FOXSports.com; go read it.  The high-level version:

  • Rosenthal sees the Yankees declining Bobby Abreu’s 2008 option and turning to Melky Cabrera or a big name free agent for right field.  I agree; you can check out my other assessments of 2008 club options here.  Might be time to switch my predictions on Juan Uribe, Jose Guillen, and Paul Byrd.  I can now see Uribe declined and the other two exercised. Byrd has come alive, and Guillen’s strong May has sparked the chance of the Ms taking their $9MM option for ’08.
  • Torii Hunter’s having a well-timed career year, but the Twins can’t trade him unless they’re out of contention.  Tough situation.  The Twins are 7.5 games back in the Central, 7 out of the wild card.  If it’s double digits in July the decision gets easier.
  • It wouldn’t be easy for the Cardinals to trade Scott Rolen right now, based on the factors outlined here.
  • Erick Aybar remains an excellent trading chip for the Angels.  His .600 OPS doesn’t help his value, but it’s pretty much what PECOTA expected.  There’s a small chance Aybar becomes Barry Larkin, but to me he looks like the next Cesar Izturis.

Perrotto’s Latest

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John Perrotto of Baseball Prospectus has quickly become another fine source for trade rumors.  Some highlights from his latest column:

  • The Twins would surrender a solid arm – maybe Jesse Crain, Juan Rincon, or Scott Baker – in return for a right-handed hitter.  My own speculation: perhaps Wayne Krivsky, looking to stabilize his bullpen, would trade Edwin Encarnacion for Rincon.  Rincon has been one of the best setup men in baseball for the past four years.  On the other hand, Baker could really flourish in the National League and Kyle Lohse may leave via free agency after the season.  Terry Ryan might want a more proven, reliable bat though.  Buster Olney throws out Morgan Ensberg’s name in his blog today.
  • Some clubs already have center fielder Torii Hunter on the radar: the Red Sox, White Sox, Cardinals, and Rangers.  I think there is no doubt the Rangers go in for one of the "name" center fielders this winter.  I can see the Red Sox testing the waters but it would seem odd to block Jacoby Ellsbury for four or five years.  Hunter is making the contract year argument, hitting .324/.358/.618 in 35 games.  His previous career high in slugging was .524 in ’02.
  • Perrotto confirms the finding of Michael Gluskin – Odalis Perez and Chan Ho Park are two names on the Orioles’ target list of starting pitchers.  The O’s might have found some relief in the shrewd Jeremy Guthrie pickup – his last two starts against the Devil Rays and Red Sox were excellent.   

Torii Hunter At 4/60?

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Charley Walters of the St. Paul Pioneer Press believes Torii Hunter will snag a contract in the neighborhood of four years and $60MM after this season, if his strong offensive output continues.  That’s an entirely reasonable estimate and may be low. 

A 32 year-old Johnny Damon received four years and $52MM, but that was two years ago and Hunter plays better defense.  Alfonso Soriano might be a better point of reference at eight years, $136MM.  He turned 31 shortly after he signed; Hunter will be about 32.5.  Soriano was simply an experiment in center, while Hunter is a pro. 

If Hunter is no longer a .480 SLG type guy, but rather a .540 SLG type (admittedly a long shot), his contract could ramp up to $16MM annually over five or even six years.  The only concern is that his newfound power is coming at the expense of walks – Hunter has just three of them so far this year.  It works as long as he’s hitting .330.

With Jacoby Ellsbury coming on strong in the minors, the Red Sox don’t need a huge CF expenditure.  I could see the Orioles, Rangers, or Phillies splurging on Hunter this winter.

Hunter Expects To Leave Twins

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If I were a betting man, I’d bet that Torii Hunter will not be a Twin in 2008.  Hunter agrees, though it doesn’t seem like he’ll let it become a distraction.

Say he hits free agency and asks for a four-year deal to cover his age 32-35 seasons.  PECOTA would offer him a $34MM deal.  PECOTA would then be turned down and counteroffered 4/52 or so from Hunter’s agent.

The 2007-08 offseason is notable for its selection of center fielders.  Hunter, Ichiro Suzuki, Eric Byrnes, Mike Cameron, Andruw Jones, Corey Patterson, and Aaron Rowand are all set to hit the market.  Teams with openings could include the Orioles, Red Sox, Twins, White Sox, Athletics, Rangers, Braves, Marlins, Phillies, Astros, Cardinals, Pirates, Reds, and Padres.   

Torii Hunter’s Option Exercised

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As expected, the Twins exercised Torii Hunter’s $12MM 2007 option today.  Next year will be his age 31 season.  Baseball Prospectus projects his value at just $3.55MM for 2007.  On this one I will have to disagree with the numbers; I would exercise the option with little hesitation.

The Twins still have roughly $13-15MM to spend this winter; here are the team needs.

With Hunter off the market, the likely free agent center fielder options are:

Jim Edmonds
Gary Matthews Jr.
Juan Pierre
Dave Roberts
Kenny Lofton
Steve Finley
Darin Erstad

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